Nobody asked what I was referring to as 'rubbish' and I didn't have time to explain. I am at work and have to be quick. What i was saying was rubbish was the particular poster who viewed today's values as the only relevant ones, which is absolute nonsense. They are only relevant if you have to cash in today. We don't go about thinking in terms of today only if we want to live a rational life and meaningful life. Whatever today brings is IT?? Really?..
CNP - Centro Properties Group
- Thread starter traderandy
- Start date
Surely you cant be serious? The S.P is at an all time low and you dont think that is relevant?? The S.P TODAY shows what a truely dire postion the company is in.....
Of course the 'future' S.P is important-as investors and traders thats what we work on, but to dismiss a stocks current price due to what it 'could' be in the future is crazy, sorry....
Of course the 'future' S.P is important-as investors and traders thats what we work on, but to dismiss a stocks current price due to what it 'could' be in the future is crazy, sorry....
Tigerboi,
Nobody disputes your figures, That is why the SP is where it is. However there are around 800 million shares. Each or these has dropped in value by almost $10 each. Therefore the share price drop has more than compensated for any overvaluations and losses. The only question is "will the banks extend the loans". The banks are not secured completely and may have more to lose by not extending the loans. The loans are actually good loans in the sense that they are attracting a higher rate of interest than they would be if the company was able to refinance easily. The interest is being paid I believe.
I'm happy to buy at today's price on my assumptions. I calculate a value of 70c share if the company can survive the next 6 months. It may take a year to get there.
Nobody disputes your figures, That is why the SP is where it is. However there are around 800 million shares. Each or these has dropped in value by almost $10 each. Therefore the share price drop has more than compensated for any overvaluations and losses. The only question is "will the banks extend the loans". The banks are not secured completely and may have more to lose by not extending the loans. The loans are actually good loans in the sense that they are attracting a higher rate of interest than they would be if the company was able to refinance easily. The interest is being paid I believe.
I'm happy to buy at today's price on my assumptions. I calculate a value of 70c share if the company can survive the next 6 months. It may take a year to get there.
You are putting words in my mouth and I can't be bothered explaining anymore. WHo said anything about dismissing the current SP? Clearly a lot of people are spooked by it and cannot ignore it to see the potential there. The question here is will CNP survive and the answer to that does not depend on the current SP.
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Re: CNP,go for your life.very poor odds
all i can say is for someone that values a 10c share at 70c IF they survive is knock yourself out go for it,i will say this from myself who in the early 90's was a very big cash punter & a winner(best you follow my race tip thread)is you have got yourself very poor odds...tb
all i can say is for someone that values a 10c share at 70c IF they survive is knock yourself out go for it,i will say this from myself who in the early 90's was a very big cash punter & a winner(best you follow my race tip thread)is you have got yourself very poor odds...tb
mu002
I quit holding cnp when I see no dividend payment in near future. but still care the share and people here. those non cnp share buyers pls stop putting negative opinion into this forum unless u can approve it. I doublt we do bunch more research than u guys because we really buy into the shares! if u even dont understand some basic valuation foundamental like yield, how can u say the shopping centers are worthless? the centers can keep their value merely upon rental incomes. this can be decreasing, but cant be eliminated just becaues a tighter credit market or even a recession. banks knew this, thats why centro was provided with heavy unsecured loans. remember what happened when a Germany bank wanted to quit? Jp morgan walk out to settle the extention. why? Jp morgan is still a major shareholder like us and get huge unsecured loans as well. HSBC is another major shareholder by the way, they can only holding their amount of share due to the current bloody low SP. we are protected by the number ZERO. what we can do now is to do some decent research or get professional advice on the process in the case Centro is put into administraion. how much right shareholders retain in the worst case. I think we wont be left nothing based on the tangible assets. and before this can happen, company managers, major shareholders, even banks will do their best to not allow this happen. and in much bigger chance than in the Casino, cnp buyers will get their reward in a year or two. I dont know how low the SP will go further down, I bought 100000 at 14.5 c, I just spent so much time on this share it gave me so much. i will stand with it until the last. and I have some talk with my friend, even the share stop trading in the public market, it can still be trade privately. as far as one day centro come back to profitability. shareholders can still have their value back. again, ask profession opinion on the wind up process. when there is a will, there is a way. Good luck to all my freinds.
I quit holding cnp when I see no dividend payment in near future. but still care the share and people here. those non cnp share buyers pls stop putting negative opinion into this forum unless u can approve it. I doublt we do bunch more research than u guys because we really buy into the shares! if u even dont understand some basic valuation foundamental like yield, how can u say the shopping centers are worthless? the centers can keep their value merely upon rental incomes. this can be decreasing, but cant be eliminated just becaues a tighter credit market or even a recession. banks knew this, thats why centro was provided with heavy unsecured loans. remember what happened when a Germany bank wanted to quit? Jp morgan walk out to settle the extention. why? Jp morgan is still a major shareholder like us and get huge unsecured loans as well. HSBC is another major shareholder by the way, they can only holding their amount of share due to the current bloody low SP. we are protected by the number ZERO. what we can do now is to do some decent research or get professional advice on the process in the case Centro is put into administraion. how much right shareholders retain in the worst case. I think we wont be left nothing based on the tangible assets. and before this can happen, company managers, major shareholders, even banks will do their best to not allow this happen. and in much bigger chance than in the Casino, cnp buyers will get their reward in a year or two. I dont know how low the SP will go further down, I bought 100000 at 14.5 c, I just spent so much time on this share it gave me so much. i will stand with it until the last. and I have some talk with my friend, even the share stop trading in the public market, it can still be trade privately. as far as one day centro come back to profitability. shareholders can still have their value back. again, ask profession opinion on the wind up process. when there is a will, there is a way. Good luck to all my freinds.
Re: mu002
The thing is with stocks like CNP it doesn't take much negativity as it stands on the precipice these days, to bring the SP right down to the ground, but on the flip side it only needs one or two positive announcements and/or rumours and the share pricew will rise like a phoenix from the ashes. It is all still possible and the SP would reflect current market sentiment but this is not always based on a rational evaluation of the prospects of the company in question. CNP does have valuable underlying assets which provide regular reliable income on a significant scale. The debt is massive but CNP is not insolvent and can pay the costs of the debt which means continuing income going to its lenders with capital loan to be repaid eventually. The current SP does not reflect the true value of the assets which by a significantly large margin outweigh the total debt. Eventually when the SP stabilises it should reflect true value but that is not the position at the moment. The whole market lacks stability lately. The best ingredient for success at present time is patience and CNP and its bankers are showing it. It could go either way and this is no doubt a gamble but not like gambling at the casino although at moments it may feel like that.
The thing is with stocks like CNP it doesn't take much negativity as it stands on the precipice these days, to bring the SP right down to the ground, but on the flip side it only needs one or two positive announcements and/or rumours and the share pricew will rise like a phoenix from the ashes. It is all still possible and the SP would reflect current market sentiment but this is not always based on a rational evaluation of the prospects of the company in question. CNP does have valuable underlying assets which provide regular reliable income on a significant scale. The debt is massive but CNP is not insolvent and can pay the costs of the debt which means continuing income going to its lenders with capital loan to be repaid eventually. The current SP does not reflect the true value of the assets which by a significantly large margin outweigh the total debt. Eventually when the SP stabilises it should reflect true value but that is not the position at the moment. The whole market lacks stability lately. The best ingredient for success at present time is patience and CNP and its bankers are showing it. It could go either way and this is no doubt a gamble but not like gambling at the casino although at moments it may feel like that.
Vida, excuse my ignorance, but if CNP is in such a great position, re paying its debts with assets "which by a significantly large margin outweigh the total debt" then what is the problem? What is the risk? Why would the banks call in their loans? In face of this why is the S.P only 11 cents?
The "significantly large margin" depends on the price that the assets can be sold for. Not a high degree of confidence in today's market, hence the risk and the SP. The banks may decide that it is better to salvage what they can rather than risk a further deterioration. A 50/50 proposition IMO but DYOR.
You are right, but that is why they will not sell their assets at today's market prices if they are not good enough considering. They are income producing assets even through a downturn in the economy as supermarkets keep selling food and other basic stuffs through thick and thin. The fact is that they are not insolvent and do not need to be forced into a big sell out at the bottom of the market, even if it bottoms further it is not going to make them insolvent.
If the banks were going to pull the plug they would have insisted CNP sell the bankstown centre at whatever they could get as if they are put into administration that is what will happen. So why not let CNP do the fire sale liquidating and insist on it but they did not apparently. Their bankers etc are supportive according to the latest CNP reports and further extension negotiations are going posivitely.
Yes I agree its a 50/50 situation and high risk etc thus the extremely low SP .. there is uncertainty either way and in this climate people are becoming increasingly more risk averse thus the 11.5 to 12 cents share price today. Sorry to those who didn't want to know
The business of the banks is to lend money and make a profit doing just that. The banks are doing very well out of CNP. Because of the situation CNP finds itself with they are probably paying a premium interest rate, probably higher than the banks will get if they were repaid in full and lent it to a less risky borrower. As far as I know CNP is paying it's interest bill.
If the banks send CNP to the wall they will incur a loss if the property sales are fire sales. Therefore to do that they not only relend the money at a lower rate they will also lose some capital.
Therefore I see it would be bad business for the banks to call in the debt. I know that because years ago I had borrowed in foreign currency and the loan blew out to a point that had the banks called in the loan I could have been bankrupt and the bank would have lost out. They renewed my loan which was by then partly unsecured. I continued in business and repaid the loan after 2 years. They were happy. I was happy. I believe this will happen here. All CNP has to do is keep up the payments and over time reduce the debt. The banks will play hardball to keep on the screws, that is the way they operate. They hate losses too.
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They cancelled the Bankstown sale because they couldn't garner any interest which may prove to be telling soon.
Excuse me The Abyss, what are you talking about. The whole world should know by now the sale is cancelled and the telling thing is already told : we are heading towards a recession. Haven't you heard yet? Stay tuned more.
If we are headed towards a recession would that mean property is to fall, and if so wouldnt the banks then want to get all they could while they can..? What if the same bank thatthrew a spanner in the works of the last negotiations this times decied enough is enough? High risk high return for sure. Good luck to holders...
The 64 dollar question. That is what the banks have to work out. But then,
1. Are we headed towards a recession?
2. Are we at the turnaround point of the current mini recession.
3. If we are heading further towards a recession will the CNP centres trade better or worse than other bank customers. Bear in mind that their core customers are the major food retailers. Most centres have fairly long leases.
Even in a recession it is not all doom and gloom as some posting on ASF would have us believe.
skc
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No one knows what will happen to CNP, but we must accept the fact that it can go bust and equity holders get potentially nothing in return. It is most important under these circumstances to manage the risk to your portfolio, even if you have confidence in the stock (for whatever reason).
Given the high risk of wipe out, I would not risk more than 1-2% of my portfolio in CNP. For those who are thinking of buying 100,000 shares, I hope your portfolio runs into the millions...
Scary to see that many posters are just holding on hope...you should really do your own research, form a view and act accordingly.
Given the high risk of wipe out, I would not risk more than 1-2% of my portfolio in CNP. For those who are thinking of buying 100,000 shares, I hope your portfolio runs into the millions...
Scary to see that many posters are just holding on hope...you should really do your own research, form a view and act accordingly.
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Re: CNP-the slide continues 1/2 cent by 1/2 cent
I was wrong about this one i miscalculated i reckon by 1 day,tipped it from 16c to sub 10c by what i thought was tomorrow but ended up being today,still 25% was ok.
closed on its low which is an ominous sign as to if it does fall through the 10c support as i expect it to,this could very well not need any stop losses...
if i held this i would have a few changes of reggies ready with a close eye on the dow tonight,as i dont believe the fed bailing out banks & propping up the market is any help to the likes of CNP...dow looks like retesting 11,000 again...tb
I was wrong about this one i miscalculated i reckon by 1 day,tipped it from 16c to sub 10c by what i thought was tomorrow but ended up being today,still 25% was ok.
closed on its low which is an ominous sign as to if it does fall through the 10c support as i expect it to,this could very well not need any stop losses...
if i held this i would have a few changes of reggies ready with a close eye on the dow tonight,as i dont believe the fed bailing out banks & propping up the market is any help to the likes of CNP...dow looks like retesting 11,000 again...tb
Re: CNP-the slide continues 1/2 cent by 1/2 cent
According to me (and Westpac) todays low was 11c and plenty of sales at 12.5c. Gets to be better buying all the time.
According to me (and Westpac) todays low was 11c and plenty of sales at 12.5c. Gets to be better buying all the time.
