CNP - Centro Properties Group

[blogs]

Re: CNP-dead man walking

CNP havent been able to pay $1.1b since december 18th when the drama started,they seek an extension on that til this december 18th...when i believe a further $3.8b is due,they cannot sell assets as any (smart) buyers are waiting for when they fold.

I cannot see how they can climb out of the doo doo,this stock is akin to backing 100/1 shots...they need a miracle which in the current market wont be happening...tb

Very good points there tiger!! By all accounts we are headed into a great recession, things are going to get worse before they have any chance of getting better!!

 

[Lucky_Country]

The question that really is of the utmost importance is are the banks prepared to right down hundreds of millions if they dont extend ?
That to me is the crunch factor bearing in mind that CNP does meet its interest repayments.

 

[blogs]

You bet they will!!! Remember a german bank almost ended the extension the last round, property is set to decline, I would not at all be surprised.

 

[oldblue]

The question that really is of the utmost importance is are the banks prepared to right down hundreds of millions if they dont extend ?
That to me is the crunch factor bearing in mind that CNP does meet its interest repayments.

That is exactly the point. Is CNP worth more to the banks alive or dead?
Mind you, it would only take one major lender to decide that the game's over and it is doubtful whether the others would be prepared to increase their exposure to keep CNP afloat.

Yes, I've dropped the odds slightly since yesterday.




Still a 50/50 proposition, IMO.

 

[Bushman]

Buyers wont buy at current book values @ yields of 6.5% - that is the reality of the current market.

CNP/syndciates are lame ducks. If you had cash and were looking at say a Bankstown, you would say '8% yield or see you in 6-months when you really are a forced seller'. 8% yield means you will make make an automatic 100bp derived gain on a sub-regional. So you wait for your 10% free kick and look like a hero to your investors.

Banks will decide if the vulture funds make their killing. Not a good position for equity holders to be in I would have thought.

 

[MR_B]

Are you all nuts??? The have insane debt levels, are on the verge of going under, have assets that no one wants, its share price is at a all time low and you have confidence? All it takes is for the banks to say no more and she is all over red rover...

I would say I have hope, not confidence. If I had confidence I would buy a lot more of these shares then I already have. With hope, I am keeping what I have. I will try to check the news instead of share price for now. After some significant anouncement, I will check again. As for Red and Black, that only pays double. This could be a lot more rewarding... But people can continue to talk it down on here for now for all I care, its the next major anouncement that I actually care about.

 

[nioka]

Re: CNP-dead man walking

Very good points there tiger!! By all accounts we are headed into a great recession, things are going to get worse before they have any chance of getting better!!

The lemming group believe we are heading into a great depression. I do not believe that at all. However assuming that we are then even cash will be worth nothing. You will need a wheelbarrow of hundred dollar bills to get a loaf of bread if things get that bad. You may as well have shares that are worth nothing as have a lot of money in a bank that goes bust.

A great depression JUST WILL NOT HAPPEN. China and India may slow down but they will not stop growing. Life will go on. Business will go on.

Our super system produces billions of investment money each year. It has been keeping the market from collapsing and will continue to do so.

CNP is paying it's interest. It has a good income stream. It is a good cash cow for the banks. They are not going to send a good cow to the abattoirs before it stops producing. It is not like a home mortgage where the home owner is out of a job, heavily in debt with car payments, credit cards to the limit and using one card to draw cash to pay the other. That is where the banks call in the debt.

CNP will survive and pay it's way. That is my humble opinion. DYOR.

 

[vida]

Sorry Vida but is absolutely true, and the main reason so many people go broke. Try telling the people who have over paid for their houses in the States, the U.K and Europe that they are worth more than what the market values them-a market can OVER value something just as easy as you may think it can undervalue. The simple fact is a asset is only worth its realisable value, at the moment CNP shares are worth 11 cents-you couldnt go to a bank and use them as collateral saying 'but they are really worth 69 cents'.......

You can't use shares as collateral at any time no matter what they are for one thing. A bank does not accept share portfolios as security for anything, ok if its a car, house, fixed term deposits but shares never is my experience.

People only go broke when they sell an asset during a time when it has devalued and they still owe money on it. If a person does not need to sell an asset when its current market value has fallen, it can be worth a lot more to them in the future if they hold on to it. The market rises, falls & rises again.

Its only when value falls are crystallised by selling off and then there is no possiblity of benefitting from the value gain when market rises, that is when people may go broke. Clearly CNP do not have to sell and they are not selling in this market at what is offered because they can afford to wait.

People are clearly panicking and current values are dropping but if fire sales are avoided and it seems they can be, in anticipation of future improvement in perhaps a year or two then that is all good. The problem at the moment is the credit squeeze, high interest rates and unpreparadeness of people to enter into as much debt as they were happy to do in prior times.

THings will improve if we can ride it out and wait without any panic selling as CNP is doing. Their bankers may pull the plug of course, and they may not if they do not run out of reasons to keep CNP afloat. We will soon know and yes we are gambling on this turning out positively.

 

[tigerboi]

Re: CNP-banks will pull the plug very soon

The question that really is of the utmost importance is are the banks prepared to right down hundreds of millions if they dont extend ?

There is no ifs or buts about it,within the next 98 days(december 18th) the banks will say thats it,better to get as much now than nothing later.same deal i said about BNB...its the ponzi at work & when the music stops not all get a chair...

cheap easy money for way over inflated assets(sold to CNP by the current ceo,dont forget that!)that now no one themselves want or can afford.

i worked at a company last year(got out 3 weeks before the banks came & locked everyone out,i listened to my gut instinct)that got way over its head in debt chasing its tail,debt to expand like CNP & folded...

apart from the massive debt CNP has you have to look at the entire management of the company which in light of its situation was handled with gross incompetence(gearing after the us asset buy out was 56%,this was a huge gamble as management predicted with fees it would lower to the mid30's...bad timing,poor judgement).

9 months ago i said they wouldnt survive & i simply cannot see any other way out of it,they cant even pay the interest on the loans...

slow death of a 1000 cuts is whats happening to CNP...

as for a recession?i wouldnt go that far however some discretion is needed which aint a bad thing either as ive started saving additional money i would normally spend...tb

 

[MR_B]

Re: CNP-banks will pull the plug very soon

as for a recession?i wouldnt go that far however some discretion is needed which aint a bad thing either as ive started saving additional money i would normally spend...tb

and why are you saving additional money? What's wrong with spending if you have it? If you want something, just buy it now.

 

[blogs]

You can't use shares as collateral at any time no matter what they are for one thing. A bank does not accept share portfolios as security for anything, ok if its a car, house, fixed term deposits but shares never is my experience.

Correct, but there are also many instance where a portfolio can be used for collateral.

People only go broke when they sell an asset during a time when it has devalued and they still owe money on it. If a person does not need to sell an asset when its current market value has fallen, it can be worth a lot more to them in the future if they hold on to it. The market rises, falls & rises again.

Its only when value falls are crystallised by selling off and then there is no possiblity of benefitting from the value gain when market rises, that is when people may go broke. Clearly CNP do not have to sell and they are not selling in this market at what is offered because they can afford to wait.

Sorry but I do not agree. You are 'hoping' it will go up in value, there is absolutely no garauntee it ever will. People go broke by hanging onto a stock 'hoping' it will go up in value. All that is known is what it is worth now. By your reasoning if CNP went back to $10 it is really ISNT worth $10, becasue 'one day' it could go back down to 10 cents....So how do you value something?

THings will improve if we can ride it out and wait without any panic selling as CNP is doing. Their bankers may pull the plug of course, and they may not if they do not run out of reasons to keep CNP afloat. We will soon know and yes we are gambling on this turning out positively.

If things were so sure, why wouldnt the directors have been buying up at these gime prices? No change of directors notices? Just be carefull peoples....

 

[YELNATS]

Re: CNP-banks will pull the plug very soon

CNP is paying it's interest.

they cant even pay the interest on the loans...

These two statements are in direct contradiction. Confusing and I'm confused. Who's right?

 

[tigerboi]

Re: CNP-banks will pull the plug very soon

and why are you saving additional money? What's wrong with spending if you have it? If you want something, just buy it now.

i usually do that however ive decided to save some more money because unlike CNP i pay cash for everything,that way its mine not the banks...i had a very very sizeable win(if the mrs knew how much i put on the tigers at $4.25 on the weekend she would faint.)..thats 325% profit.

i could of spent it but with plenty invested thats been put away,i do want something but i want 100% ownership so when i get enough saved i will get it.nothing wrong with saving spare cash...tb

cnp now...11c,i predicted sub 10c on monday by friday?

 

[nomore4s]

Re: CNP-banks will pull the plug very soon

and why are you saving additional money? What's wrong with spending if you have it? If you want something, just buy it now.

lol, is it any wonder we have such high debt levels and low savings with an attitude like that.

I don't know why people are even interested in this stock, in this current environment this stock is way to risky for me. One quick look at the chart will tell you something isn't right.

Holding onto this stock puts you in grave danger of losing the lot imo.

Good luck to holders, I hope it all works out.

 

[MR_B]

Re: CNP-banks will pull the plug very soon

lol, is it any wonder we have such high debt levels and low savings with an attitude like that.

Like I said, if you have money, why not spend it. If your in debt, you don't have money, you owe money. I'm debt free and buy what I want.

 

[nioka]

Re: CNP-banks will pull the plug very soon

These two statements are in direct contradiction. Confusing and I'm confused. Who's right?

Check the latest reports. It is there in print.They have tennanted property and they have management rights that earn cash daily. They are a sound business apart from the gearing which they are working on.They are well worth 10c+. I can't see them falling any lower but then I am often wrong. However I am happy to hold again for now. Watch this space as they say.

 

[nioka]

How has this thread been renamed from "CNP Centro Properties Group" to "CNP banks will pull the plug very soon". Can the mods rename it " CNP banks will NOT pull the plug very soon."

 

[vida]

Oversold? Its still a solid earning company right? Anyone here buying it today? Im not exactly all that clued up on property trusts

quite a bit of rubbish is being posted here this week I agree with you that the stock is oversold on the uncertainty factor which is undeniable but!!!
read the latest article below from today's news media: (my only regret is that I didn't wait until now to buy and did not sell at spikes etc.. the usual stuff..)

Centro quietly confident
Cummins
September 10, 2008

CENTRO Properties says the decision to withdraw its $600 million Centro Bankstown shopping centre from sale will not affect its recapitalisation program.

The centre is half-owned by the syndicate Centro MCS 28 and Centro Retail Trust. Centro Properties is the manager.

Centro has until September 30 to convince its US lenders to extend their debt deadline to December 15, aligning it with that of the group's Australian lenders.

It is believed the management of the retail landlord is quietly confident it will get its extension. But should any of the banks in the syndicate opt for immediate cash, Centro will go into administration and a fire sale of assets will occur.

Centro chief executive Glenn Rufrano said: "The syndicate business is separate to the Centro headstock. The money raised from any asset sale goes to repay debt (in the syndicate) and then to syndicate investors.

"Centro Properties stands alongside all other investors in this regard. Centro MCS syndicates are separate businesses and are not directly related to the headstock financing or recapitalisation."

He said he was in the middle of a four-week program of meetings with the syndicate and other unlisted investors, and the feedback had been positive.

He also said buyers found it hard to arrange finance for shopping centres valued at more than $600 million in the current climate.

Centro shares closed down 1.5 ¢, or 10%, at 13.5 ¢.

 

[blogs]

quite a bit of rubbish is being posted here this week I agree with you that the stock is oversold on the uncertainty factor which is undeniable but!!!
read the latest article below from today's news media: (my only regret is that I didn't wait until now to buy and did not sell at spikes etc.. the usual stuff..)

Centro quietly confident
Cummins

I always find it intriguing/amusing that any negative comments towards a stock are always dismissed as being rubbish or down ramping, and any positive posts seem to automatically carry some weight of authority.....

Simple fact is have a look at the S.P-people commenting 'rubbish' about CNP could have saved you a LOT of money had people listened. It 'may' survive, but just like the last round-it all hinges on one bank pulling out. To risky for me.....

BTW Caroline Cummins!?!?!?! She would have to be one of the most in accurate and senastionalist reporters out there, she quotes posters from Hotcopper for gawd sakes....At least in this article she is reporting quotes from management lol

And BTW dont get angry at negative points of veiw-nothing we say or do can influence either the S.P or the outcome, its justa point of view, much like yours

 

[tigerboi]

Re: CNP, I couldnt have said it better blogs

As for rubbish being said have a look at these numbers for rubbish,this company has a massive amount of debt,i am simply astounded at how anyone could possibly find a scintilla of value in this stock.the sp shows the sentiment on CNP...not worth 2 bob & just like bnb i shake my head in total bewilderment why anyone would plough their hard earned into this basket case.but whatever floats your boat i suppose...tb


Maurice Dunlevy | August 30, 2008

SHOPPING centre owner and manager Centro has recorded one of the biggest losses in Australian corporate history, taking a massive hit on the value of its Australian and US properties.
Centro Properties Group yesterday booked a staggering $2.053 billion full-year loss, while satellite Centro Retail Trust was $868 million in the red.
The losses added to Centro's debt woes, with the group now owing $17.6 billion and relying on the $60 million balance of a $145million liquidity facility to continue operating until the end of September.
The September 30 deadline is when Australian banks and US private noteholders must be satisfied Centro can trade out of its debt crisis.
The size of yesterday's losses had not been expected by analysts, who were still digesting Monday's disclosure that Centro Properties Group was unlikely to meet a December deadline to repay almost $4 billion, and would seek long-term debt extensions.
Centro chief executive Glenn Rufrano described the losses as "piddling" compared with recent corporate losses in the US, but analysts said it was a terrible result that would damage lenders' confidence.
The $2.9 billion losses were the largest incurred in the 37-year history of Australian listed property trusts, and rank among our largest corporate losses.
In Centro's home town of Melbourne, losses of a similar magnitude have not been witnessed since the early 1990s, when the Pyramid Building Society crashed with debts of about $2billion, and Victoria's State Bank was forced out of business because of about $2.7 billion of debt run up by its merchant arm, Tricontinental.
Centro Properties Group's $2.053 billion full-year loss included property revaluations of $1.195 billion, asset impairment of $772 million, unrealised derivative losses of $181 million and $130 million of restructuring costs.
According to Centro, the Centro Retail Trust's $868 million loss was mainly from non-cash items that included an $883 million write-down of property investments and a $317 million impairment in the trust's investment in Super LLC, the vehicle used early last year to purchase the New York-listed New Plan Excel Realty Trust for $US5 billion.
The bullish pre-subprime-crisis purchase made Centro the fifth largest shopping centre owner and manager in Australia, but it was the start of a slippery slide that ended in December with Centro unable to refinance $3.9 billion of debt in risk-adverse credit markets.

Mr Rufrano said yesterday there was no disguising the seriousness of Centro's current situation, but the group's fundamental task remained to secure long-term debt restructuring, with current proposals including a debt for equity swap.

Analyst reaction to the losses was mostly negative, but Centro specialist Andrew Rosivach, of Credit Suisse, said Centro was doing its best, even though its future remained uncertain in current capital markets. US property valuations remain a concern for analysts, given that 665 of Centro's 794 properties are spread across almost 40 US states.

Centro Properties Group wiped $1.195 million from US property values, down from $US13.9 billion to $US12.8 billion.

With Centro doing its own directors' revaluations -- in lieu of independent valuations -- on 70 per cent of the portfolio, actual losses may be much higher.

In Australia, 50 per cent of Centro's 129 properties had directors' valuations.