Its strange the media have been suddenly quiet on Centro over past days. I expected some reporting on how Rufrano was going in USA but nothing. If he is out of the country doesn't mean he is out of touch - so maybe its good news soon and maybe its bad news soon. I feel a trading halt coming on.
Wondering the same, has been very quiet however Rufrano did say publicly before leaving that there won't be any announcements until close or up to the 15th Feb.
Though the last lack of info gap 1 1/2 weeks in late Jan saw the share price drift downwards, interestingly it's drifted upwards reflecting sentiment buildup to the 15th Feb.
The main question I ask myself is why did he go in the first place, what purpose was the trip serving, what could he gain in the US he couldn't do here and what was his objectives. I believe the following:
1- Presenting sale of the Centro America Fund to US interests by utilizing his personal networking and contacts which Scott may have lacked.
2- Sourcing avenues\costing of refinancing the short term debt ($3.9 Billion or less depending on CAWF, CAF) at perhaps a slight premium than US investment groups will be receiving currently, though lower than what Centro's costs would be domestically. This could be a second play in order to hold onto assets currently for sale.
3- Drumming up interest in the group as a whole for an equity injection.
I think there's a few 'givens' to throw into the equation:
1) CAWF will be sold, for how much we won't know till the deals done, shortlisting as far as I'm aware is completed, either way it directly should remove given the public available info around $2.1 Billion of the $3.9 short term debt, $1.8 billion left.
2) CAF will be sold, same as above, the markets talking $1.1 Billion or close to, hard given the nature of the assets and market sentiment in the US, if achieved this or close to, assume $900 million left which shouldn't be an issue for local lenders provided Rufrano can untangle the relationships between their entities to a clearer picture, especially regarding debt to equity positions and asset backing of loans.
The other issue been pondering is CER and Centro's 50% stake in it, gearing is quite low in comparison to CNP and assets of high quality. This would be a last resort though given broker sentiment to buy as opposed to CNP (likely due to differences in market exposure) and they've just had independent advisors appointed separate to CNP as requested by refinanciers of their $1.1 Billion which appears closed to locked in (since this was a requirement of the financing on the table) it looks possible to me a sellout of their 50% stake is another avenue though a last resort.
Either way, with lack of solid deals made its all speculation.. on the face of it they'll be selling 2 stakes with a smaller refinance or perhaps 3 stakes with debt reduction which either should solve the short term debt issue, and to me, provided they can as part of these sales retain the management rights (if sold to the likes of superannuation funds, this is likely) pay a reasonable dividend 12 months + (cancelled previously to reduce debt\equity levels to make more attractive\reduce debt).
I'm looking at it thinking a 6-12 month recovery with the red tape removed. Personally I think the 2 sales will happen and the locals will refinance the difference knowing their risk positions will be reduced. The share price will reflect dividend ratio, though won't be until 2009 as adverse sentiment throughout 08 will fluctuate all over the place until the dust settles and company info is available. I'm buying up at the sentiment dips for now and taking a 12m view with a hold perspective.