Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

CNP - Centro Properties Group

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reece55 said:
One positive that must be said for Centro is that at least the stock is still trading unlike AFG and MFS, and in addition has actually been fairly good in relaying key issues to investors post the collapse.....

Cheers
Click to expand...

The management team under Glen Rufrano are top notch property and fund managers with many years experience in the property industry.

Glen is a straight shooter and if anyone can pull CNP out of the quagmire, he is it. I have been very impressed with him.

The frustrating part of watching all this is that it was simply a deal to far (New Plan) that has caused the balance sheet distress. Add in the complex structure and you have the dire situation today. The underlying Australian and US properties are running at 1% to 5% vacancy rates and remain cash cows hedged by long term leases to Coles, Woolworths, Walmart and the like. There was also a value adding development pipeline the length of your arm that has had to be postponed.

If they can refinance successfully (the great unknown), keep the asset sales to a minimum and get the property managment/funds management business moving again, then CNP will be a viable and cash producing business again. Of that I am certain.

IMO it is a brave call to get in today but it ain't completely broke yet and can be fixed. Time alone will tell the full picture.

As an aside, the whole LPT sector has been smashed in the current 'shoot first, ask questions later' climate. The contrarian view is that these are starting to represent compelling value on yield basis. Goodman, Valad, even Westfield could return good cash yields and capital appreciation for those investing with a long term view. It does not have to be CNP or nix for those looking for value in LPT's but with less of an appetite for risk.

Good luck to the longs.
 
No one knows the true value of CNP so to a beginner like myself I find it hard to understand why share value has been decreasing steadily since Tue, given there was no real bad news. Also trade volume seems higher than a week ago

So I came up with two explanations:

(1) big traders with better info than us sense there is a storm coming?
or
(2) big traders try to profit by selling more than what they owed on tuesday and keep price down over the 5 day period??

I am tempted to believe in (2) so i think price should stay flat at best tomorrow, which is when I will join the CNP club, and then wait for value to go up on monday.
 
The inability of CNP to maintain an increase in the SP could be explained by the fact that there has been a deal of speculative trading originating from the expectation of good news. A lot of the shares were probably bought on "three day" credit. When the price first rose some traders sold for a small profit, others bought hoping for a further rise according to the "chart". As the three day window ran out some sales would have been made at a loss to prevent default. This has caused the reversal. My view is that flurry will end this week and next week the buyers will be those like myself who look forward to a price climbing to $1.20+ over a period of some months. I calculate this figure from an examination of the balance sheets and valuations available. DYOR I'm often wrong.
 
Bushman said:
The management team under Glen Rufrano are top notch property and fund managers with many years experience in the property industry.

Glen is a straight shooter and if anyone can pull CNP out of the quagmire, he is it. I have been very impressed with him.

The frustrating part of watching all this is that it was simply a deal to far (New Plan) that has caused the balance sheet distress. Add in the complex structure and you have the dire situation today. The underlying Australian and US properties are running at 1% to 5% vacancy rates and remain cash cows hedged by long term leases to Coles, Woolworths, Walmart and the like. There was also a value adding development pipeline the length of your arm that has had to be postponed.

If they can refinance successfully (the great unknown), keep the asset sales to a minimum and get the property managment/funds management business moving again, then CNP will be a viable and cash producing business again. Of that I am certain.

IMO it is a brave call to get in today but it ain't completely broke yet and can be fixed. Time alone will tell the full picture.

As an aside, the whole LPT sector has been smashed in the current 'shoot first, ask questions later' climate. The contrarian view is that these are starting to represent compelling value on yield basis. Goodman, Valad, even Westfield could return good cash yields and capital appreciation for those investing with a long term view. It does not have to be CNP or nix for those looking for value in LPT's but with less of an appetite for risk.

Good luck to the longs.
Click to expand...

Management account very little when your model is flaw in the first place.
Uncle Warren famous last word

“When a management team with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.” :D
 
ROE said:
Management account very little when your model is flaw in the first place.
Uncle Warren famous last word

“When a management team with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.” :D
Click to expand...

Ha ha - good one Roe. Yep the 'turn $1 into $10' magical model was a dog once credit markets froze up.

However I would counter that by saying management now count for a great deal when the primary concern is trying to refinance CNP's debt with a bunch of risk averse bankers.
 
Well this all begs a few questions, "How good is the management team?" and "Can they successfully re-model?"
Much of the problem seems to have been the complexity of the old model, which has created difficulty for transparency.

And in the interest of transparency, I have already purchased a holding of CNP :)
 
Looks like another blow to CNP when companies get into trouble VULTURES are quick to attack. Pelorus has called a meeting to take over MSC16 and if you can believe the Courier Mail yesterday they are well on the way to take over a further 10 or 11. If this occurs CNP is gone without the management rights and fees CNP has no hope of recovery.

FYI I currently hold albeit at a loss of 28% at the moment. I was hoping of a recovery due to the fact that the monies are continuing to roll in.

Any opinions on the chances of Pelorus getting the votes to take over the management rights. On paper they dont look big enough to manage the 12 syndicates that they want but given the fear and panic that sets in when people smell blood in the water they could just swing the vote.

SEMPER UBI SUB UBI
 
Centro Properties Group Gee Westfield?

Todays news: Westfield Group (WDC), the world’s top shopping mall owner, reported its full year results. Net profits dropped 38% in 2007!

Well even so called low debt companies are feeling the pinch not just CNP due to the USA market?
 
A quick look at the WDC presentation shows that a major reason for this decrease is due to a large positive property revaluation in 2006. Otherwise there 's only a small decrease to their income from 06 to 07.
 
Sold my CER and bought CNP with the proceeds today. Hoping for a gain in CNP SP tomorrow. Wish I hadn't sold half my CER holdings yesterday.
 
From reuters:

At least four mull bids for Australia's Centro-WSJ
Thursday February 28, 2008, 3:58 pm


SYDNEY, Feb 28 (Reuters) - At least four companies, including U.S. private equity firm Blackstone Group BX.N and a unit of General Electric Co GE.N are considering bids for Australia's Centro Properties Group CNP.AX, the Wall Street Journal reported.

In an article on its Web site citing people familiar with the matter, the paper said Australian property firm Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR.ax) and Malaysian conglomerate Mulpha International MITC.KL were also likely to bid for a controlling stake.

Centro Properties, one of Australia's biggest casualties of the global credit crunch, got into trouble when it borrowed heavily using short-term debt to finance long-term investments. It owns 700 shopping malls in the United States.

It has won an extension on a total of A$5.4 billion ($5.1 billion) in debt till April 30, but is still under pressure to sell assets to raise cash by the new deadline.

Its shares have fallen about 90 percent since it first revealed debt problems in mid-December.

The paper said Blackstone and GE declined to comment, while Mirvac and Mulpha did not immediately return messages seeking comment.

It said other bidders were also likely to emerge, and Centro would collect formal bids within several weeks. ($1=A$1.06) (Reporting by Jonathan Standing)
 
Very good news for CNP with CER release, Rufrano's performance was excellent.. the question from the 'Australian' reporter.. ahh not so excellent LOL, doofus.

Throw in market spec on takeover rumors and if the 6 month report is relatively 'reasonable' given market conditions, some of us who've been buying in over the last few months despite the beating they've taken in the press might be in for finally a little sunshine.

Not sure how many holders there are left in here LOL, so quiet considering the events of today. I'd think people would be quite more upbeat :D
 
Well I am in at 54cents, missed the boat a little bit on this one, but hopefully the trend continues as the outlook doesn't seem as bad as first thought!
 
I bought a few back when it was .65. Been in the red since. Bought some more today around .57.

Hoping that all the bad news already been aired out. I guess the only thing that can still go wrong is if the bank decides to call in the debt. Doesn't seem likely at this stage.
 
traderboy said:
Well I am in at 54cents, missed the boat a little bit on this one, but hopefully the trend continues as the outlook doesn't seem as bad as first thought!
Click to expand...

Lol re missed boat, I just happened to buy my first tranche the day before the last trading halt at .89c which I think was 3-4 days before the first big dump to 40 something when the market went skewiff for a day :eek:

Since then bought 3 more tranches in the low 50's at the dips, very happy now with entry price overall. :)
 
Trojax said:
Lol re missed boat, I just happened to buy my first tranche the day before the last trading halt at .89c which I think was 3-4 days before the first big dump to 40 something when the market went skewiff for a day :eek:

Since then bought 3 more tranches in the low 50's at the dips, very happy now with entry price overall. :)
Click to expand...

LOL - 89cents yuck!!! How about CER, that was a big mover today! Would like to see how it goes tomororow!
 

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