CNP - Centro Properties Group

[megla]

I decided to give it a chance. Jumped in at 63 last week - held my breath over the weekend and have been checking it daily.

Not a lot invested. Doing it on gut feel.

If I'm wrong - oh well, but if it turns out to be able to recover - then from 63 cents it should go reasonably high. IMHO DYOR etc etc

 

[vida]

Good luck to you !!! I bought last week at .66c and wish I'd either bought the day before between .30c and 48c or even at today's SP of .58c etc etc.. we have great hindsight don't we ))))) ....... same as you I'm constantly flicking on comsec while working during day to check CNP sp and tried not to think about it over the weekend - I went to a fab wedding which helped.

I feel in my guts too that it will recover and do ok - my cousin has invested a lot in it at last year's SP and her financial adviser tells her it will recover. I don't know if he has a personal agenda to say that, probably wants time to leave the country with his commissions before his clients wake up to him

Lets hope it goes our way and we make some money - we will deserve it

Vida

I decided to give it a chance. Jumped in at 63 last week - held my breath over the weekend and have been checking it daily.

Not a lot invested. Doing it on gut feel.

If I'm wrong - oh well, but if it turns out to be able to recover - then from 63 cents it should go reasonably high. IMHO DYOR etc etc

 

[hartley]

Anybody know why it's dropped from 70c? I cant find much on it except for that "no rabbits in the hats for Centro" (below), but even that's not wholly negative.


Shares in Centro Properties Group and Centro Retail Group posted strong gains in the week ended 1 February 2008. However, Ross Barker of the Australian Foundation Investment Company advises caution when investing in stocks that have experienced a high degree of volatility in recent weeks. Nevertheless, some analysts are quite bullish about some of the stocks that have been heavily sold down amid the market volatility. Rob Stanton of JP Morgan has an "overweight" recommendation on Centro Properties, while Mark Carew of Macquarie Research rates Allco Finance Group as an "outperform" stock.

 

[shinobi346]

Strange question to ask. One may as well ask why you think it should be at 70c. It's been going up and down erratically ever since its debt troubles were announced.

Until CER, CNP etc announce what they are going to do about the debt and how much the companies are worth, I think the price is going to keep moving up and down until then.

 

[Big Bad Sammus]

I heard on the grape vine 2 weeks ago that CNP was going to get their debt extention till end of April, then I heard today from the same very reliable source that it will be extended till September.

Glenn Rufrano will return on Friday, so fingers crossed on Monday there will be a great announcement that he will have found a bank in the US to help their debt situation.

They will/should be able to sell their Wholesale funds for roughly $2.5 billion. So that should see the company back up on its feet (in terms of share price hopefully).

Their share price target is to reach $1.08 with in the next 2-3 months.

 

[vida]

I hope and suspect you are right but the SP appears to be thinking not so positively. Strange it is suddenly going south again today providing better buying opportunity for the brave and the astute ones - Rufrano Rufrano

I heard on the grape vine 2 weeks ago that CNP was going to get their debt extention till end of April, then I heard today from the same very reliable source that it will be extended till September.

Glenn Rufrano will return on Friday, so fingers crossed on Monday there will be a great announcement that he will have found a bank in the US to help their debt situation.

They will/should be able to sell their Wholesale funds for roughly $2.5 billion. So that should see the company back up on its feet (in terms of share price hopefully).

Their share price target is to reach $1.08 with in the next 2-3 months.

 

[So_Cynical]

Hello...they tried to refinance for 6 months and couldn't...and now make that 8 months and still cant...whats changed?

Nothing

U guys buying in now, are better off at the casino...better odds.

 

[Big Bad Sammus]

Hello...they tried to refinance for 6 months and couldn't...and now make that 8 months and still cant...whats changed?

Nothing

U guys buying in now, are better off at the casino...better odds.

I beg to differ, I kind of know that 3 out of the big 4 banks are going to help refinance....this was all Rufranos' doing.

I'm not sure where you heard they couldn't refinance...

Alot will change now that he is on board here in Aus! But I guess time will tell!

 

[nioka]

I beg to differ, I kind of know that 3 out of the big 4 banks are going to help refinance....this was all Rufranos' doing.

I'm not sure where you heard they couldn't refinance..

More information please. How do you "kind of know" that 3 out of the big 4 banks are going to help. Fact or rumour.

 

[redandgreen]

Hello...they tried to refinance for 6 months and couldn't...and now make that 8 months and still cant...whats changed?

Nothing

U guys buying in now, are better off at the casino...better odds.

The important thing that has changed in the US is that interest rates are lower now than 8 months ago. (the bulk of the debt is to US banks)

I do not consider that an investment in CNP < 60c is comparable to your odds at a casino. imo.

I am a holder.

 

[Big Bad Sammus]

More information please. How do you "kind of know" that 3 out of the big 4 banks are going to help. Fact or rumour.

I know from somebody who actually attends those meetings at Centro. Won't mention any names!

I know a little bit more about what's going to happen than what most people would.

 

[nioka]

I know from somebody who actually attends those meetings at Centro. Won't mention any names!

I know a little bit more about what's going to happen than what most people would.

I had similar news from "pub talk" and bought a few on the strength of it. Also it convinced me to choose it for this months stock comp. The way I have been operating in the comp I probably put the mocker on it. With the falling interest rates in the USA though the money could be leaving the country making it harder to raise funds there.

 

[ROE]

Why buy stocks in hope and fear and blind when there are hundred of other good stocks to buy

Uncle Warren said Rule number 1 is to safeguard your capital, that is the first rule, anything else comes second.

 

[tigerboi]

day traders paradise that suck fools in to buy at 63c gee...the day this ripped

down aplenty you could of got it for 42c-52c if you were quick held overnight

around 90c then sell at $1.46 ish next day if my memory is correct,i'll get that

info..................there low 42 high .805,next day open 95c high 1.495

and yep did trade in at 52c change of undies at 42c,sold next day at 1.46

havent touched it since..there was a 3 bagger minimum right there & you

got people saying fingers crossed...silly.the price runs on sentiment wether

they survive or not,the cnp top brass should go to jail for the shifty book

keeping,current to non-current asset,meanwhile the instos were bailing real

quick $10.00-$5.00 is proof of that,day trade yes..anything else you are

crazy...wait for 4/1 buy volume then buy,sell at 1.5/1buyvsell volume & you

will get yourself 10-20%...12.26% today,30% 25th jan.,35% 24th jan,

14.73% 4th jan.,92% right there...


7Feb 0.540 0.600 0.520 0.595 0.5602 1,606 24,954,454 13,981,419.43 12.26%
6Feb 0.540 0.560 0.520 0.530 0.5416 1,572 17,626,396 9,547,434.35 -10.17%
5Feb 0.630 0.640 0.585 0.590 0.6086 1,376 16,944,592 10,314,121.87 -9.23%
4Feb 0.675 0.680 0.640 0.650 0.6580 1,318 15,775,346 10,380,791.16 -1.52%
1Feb 0.680 0.715 0.650 0.660 0.6788 2,285 23,453,832 15,922,766.78
31Jan 0.630 0.660 0.585 0.660 0.6246 2,335 34,878,381 21,790,177.20 0.76%
30Jan 0.715 0.720 0.630 0.655 0.6729 2,501 34,164,919 22,975,401.67 0.77%
29Jan 0.690 0.780 0.625 0.650 0.7022 5,765 100,344,238 70,460,463.52 4.00%
25Jan 0.580 0.670 0.545 0.625 0.6091 5,530 94,639,278 57,645,792.85 30.21%
24Jan 0.390 0.495 0.385 0.480 0.4544 4,713 73,941,955 33,604,996.95 35.21%
23Jan 0.460 0.495 0.335 0.355 0.4040 3,355 35,780,977 14,509,429.73 -11.25%
22Jan 0.465 0.465 0.400 0.400 0.4243 2,564 26,321,576 11,158,035.62 -13.98%
21Jan 0.485 0.580 0.465 0.465 0.5276 3,020 51,189,672 27,008,923.05 -3.12%
18Jan 0.475 0.505 0.465 0.480 0.4855 1,758 23,174,078 11,252,205.14 -5.88%
17Jan 0.500 0.520 0.465 0.510 0.4938 3,759 52,821,391 26,081,246.26 10.87%
16Jan 0.540 0.590 0.460 0.460 0.5204 6,988 111,241,763 57,895,748.60 -23.33%
15Jan 0.750 0.750 0.445 0.600 0.6237 9,413 140,109,145 87,396,171.15 -30.23%
14Jan 0.860 3 86,224 74,152.64
11Jan 0.860
10Jan 1.125 1.150 0.850 0.860 0.9338 7,346 105,619,397 98,628,092.32 -22.52%
9Jan 1.125 1.135 1.070 1.110 1.1089 2,262 21,900,240 24,285,761.48 -4.31%
8Jan 1.230 1.255 1.140 1.160 1.2065 2,809 36,726,822 44,307,814.30 -3.33%
7Jan 1.080 1.250 1.060 1.200 1.1818 5,163 66,626,868 78,763,191.82 -6.61%
4Jan 1.180 1.305 1.125 1.285 1.2133 5,425 71,401,198 86,642,978.08 14.73%
3Jan 1.055 1.120 1.050 1.120 1.0918 3,257 51,718,560 56,469,858.81 7.69%
2Jan 1.000 1.240 0.985 1.040 1.1396 5,553 81,265,544 92,617,601.60 2.97%
31Dec07 1.035 1.040 0.970 1.010 0.9997 2,080 17,198,854 17,195,097.57 -2.42%
28Dec07 1.040 1.085 1.005 1.035 1.0376 2,244 18,268,361 18,955,700.01 -5.91%
27Dec07 1.180 1.185 1.075 1.100 1.1254 2,560 17,052,809 19,192,412.93 -2.65%
24Dec07 1.160 1.220 1.120 1.130 1.1569 2,761 22,862,778 26,479,735.00 0.89%
21Dec07 1.300 1.305 1.105 1.120 1.2032 7,092 81,892,079 98,758,579.21 -15.15%
20Dec07 1.375 1.495 1.255 1.320 1.3674 10,541 115,499,277 157,925,179.84 9.54%
19Dec07 0.950 1.495 0.890 1.205 1.1830 20,072 233,918,682 278,115,629.99 49.69%
18Dec07 1.180 1.180 0.420 0.805 0.7720 20,647 281,464,535 217,335,996.55 -40.81%
17Dec07 2.300 2.900 1.290 1.360 1.7440 14,244 120,260,456 211,078,841.51

 

[stockwhizben]

My friend works there and there is no news they (staff) know that the market doesnt know. So nothing about loans extended etc can be substantiated

 

[Joe Blow]

I know from somebody who actually attends those meetings at Centro. Won't mention any names!

I know a little bit more about what's going to happen than what most people would.

Implying that you are privvy to information from insiders will get you banned from this forum.

Please do not do it again.

 

[Bushman]

My friend works there and there is no news they (staff) know that the market doesnt know. So nothing about loans extended etc can be substantiated

I work there I can confirm that the staff below Board/CEO/Executive Committee level know nothing.

Place is awash with consultants (KPMG, McGrath Nicholl, PwC) all trying to either flog assets (CAWF, CAF as disclosed), protect the banks interest, protect what is left of Centro shareholders interests, or audit the books. All as disclosed.

I would treat rumours with great caution. Why not wait until the 14 Feb and hear it from Rufrano's mouth.

Otherwise sit tight and sweat it out like all of us at ground zero are doing.

Those savvy enough would have been on the Centro website and seen that the syndicates are paying half year distributions. But given there is no trading halt, you should all have figured that out by now. If that counts as bank support then happy days.

 

[Quixis]

Those savvy enough would have been on the Centro website and seen that the syndicates are paying half year distributions. But given there is no trading halt, you should all have figured that out by now. If that counts as bank support then happy days.

And for those not savvy enough what does that mean? At least from your point of view?

I see a lot of he said, she said, they said, posts which really have no substance. Also if the posts stating "I know someone" can be complete BS so DYOR people. That person who tell our poster this information is doing an illegal act if I'm not mistaken?

 

[Bushman]

And for those not savvy enough what does that mean? At least from your point of view?

I see a lot of he said, she said, they said, posts which really have no substance. Also if the posts stating "I know someone" can be complete BS so DYOR people. That person who tell our poster this information is doing an illegal act if I'm not mistaken?

Money for distributions means that the underlying business cashflows (remember syndicates own the property), as indicated in the various market releases, are strong and the syndicates are not being forced to retain money to manage cashflows. Each syndicate is backed by a separate bank facility so, in principle, the banks are comfortable with the syndicate paying a distribution. Does this fact alone mean CNP is out of the woods? No. Is it a positive sign? Yes IMO but off course the syndicates are propery owners and separate legal entities to CNP. CNP does generate significant fees from the syndicate owners though. Please DYOR though. It is all publicly available information.

As for alledged individuals leaking confidential Board room information, absolute rubbish! This would be highly illegal and if anyone acted on this information, it would be a prima facie case of insider trader which is a very serious charge. I am sure nobody in their right mind would stake their professional reputation or risk criminal prosecution to post a rumour on an internet forum.

Google insider trading if you are unsure of what it is and what its consequences are.

 

[Quixis]

Cheers Bushman.

But do the banks have any say in whether the dividends are paid? I know the cash flows are good, just it would seems if a bank can say you can't pay a divie, they'd be running your business?