It has to survive first before it can have a cash flow. If it can't refinance there will be a firesale. Some nasty rumours about disclosure as well. And even if the US doesn't go into a recession, I don't think we've seen the worst there yet either.So does anyone know what kind of cash flow of this company has or will have? I am very confident the US economy wont go into recession because of future monetary policy from their CB. This stock could be a major boom provided the sub prime incident hasn't evaporated this companies potential for future profits.
Hi guys,
I've been fascinated by the Centro story since "the big fall". I've read a lot of articles about Centro but most are just uninformed negative commentary and speculation with hardly any real ANALYSIS. Typically this leads to massive overreaction by the market.
For my money, the key is how solid is the $26.6B asset valuation vs. the known $18B debt. Even if those figures are a bit rubbery and they have to sell off some assets at a discount to meet their $1.9B immediate debt (there seems a lot of confusion about this too??? many say $3.9B but I don't think that all falls due in Feb?) That still leaves a fair bit of shareholder equity.
Can someone explain where I'm wrong on this please. It's driving me nuts!
9k
There lies the problem - the market doesn't know how much of their assets they'll have to sell to cover the debt position. Also, I would hope they wouldn't sell of their good properties to hold their position in the crappy ones. Wouldn't be a lot of point would there?Yeah, that's great BUT they don't have to sell everything to cover 1.9B or even 3.9B debt
Yeah, that's great BUT they don't have to sell everything to cover 1.9B or even 3.9B debt - do they? And what they pay off, they no longer owe.
Also if they are only selling some assets, they would be silly to sell the ones that they will have to discount the most, however lets say they sell 7.8B of book to cover 3.9B (i.e. 50% of current value - Mega Fire sale prices)
We now have (26,6 - 7.8) - (18 - 3.9) = 4.7 Yeah?
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