- Joined
- 28 August 2010
- Posts
- 1,155
- Reactions
- 1,725
Looks like 2c is a very big resistance point, maybye 3c was a bit optimistic this far pre spud. I have to admit I sold a large chunk of my holdings for now to lock in profits and going to monitor things. Have this ugly feeling that keeps coming up more and more regarding the "very possible cr" that was mentioned in the reply to the last trading halt. Management could be waiting to see how high they sp can get before they lock in a cr
I was so close to selling off at 2.1c. Should've done it and reentered at 1.8c. Sigh.
G'day all.
Don't be too premature with estimates of just 2c pre-spud. This company has run hard since Christmas and it isn't surprising that we would get some re-tracing (I mentioned this a few days ago) as we are still some time from the real action.
Importantly, remember that we have not had any definite drilling announcements beyond the simple "expect late February" type statements. Personally, I am expecting m
March at best for this well. But once we have a definite spud date, I think that the punters shall suddenly start to climb on board and the SP will take another leg up very quickly.
While charts are effective for determing what is currently in the buy/sell columns, it doesn't assess the potential buyers who are waiting for this drilling confirmation before placing an order. Similarly, I (like so many holders) do not have sell orders in, so that does not show on any chart. Yet this drilling has so many 'tempters' for the trader and 'get-rich' punter once we have more definite news:
* virgin country with no negative history
* HUGE potential target of 4.2billion barrels (Ryder-Scott Report)
* at just 2c SP, the leverege to success is massive
* rig is organised. Funding confirmed in Canada.
Provided that the general market holds up OK and we have no delays beyond a March spud, I'd be surprised to see less than a 2.5c SP pre-spud. My gut feel is closer to 3c, then a quick CR to a sophisticated investor (possible) or even Canadians (most likely)-the latter would be a great union for future partnerships in Australia.
Just my thoughts.
Holding BKP at .003c
I was so close to selling off at 2.1c. Should've done it and reentered at 1.8c. Sigh.
everyone is making assumptions pre spud. after the spud has been announced what do you see the share price doing with a good result??
Hang in there. At spud, I don't think that you'll see this as a big problem.
With March now approaching, I have decided to expand the approach toward BKP and add a quick BESBS play to compliment my previous current holdings purchased at .003c.
This contains some risk as the recent shares have been purchased at .018c. If drilling is delayed a month or two, bad weather sets in, an early CR is announced...all could hinder the SP in the short term.
That said, given I have already stated my reasoning for a probable (IMHO) 2.5c-3c pre-spud SP (hopefully a little north of 3c), then I would use this latter parcel to try and free-carry most of my .003c holding without having to sell any of the .003c shares pre-spud. While normally I would sell pre-spud, I think that the odds of a positive 'oil show announcement are high - using the horizontal drilling approach - and such an announcement could lift the SP quickly. With a base of .003c, the leverege is obvious.
Might end up with egg on my face but time will tell.
Holding BKP:
.003c main parcel
.018c trade parcel
Hi BGG,
Complicating this scenario is the prospect of a quick capital raising by BKP (assumed to be close to spud). I'd see a quick placement (probably to the Canadians but could be an Aussie firm) and this might impact on the SP, especially if a firm then started to sell off stock at a quick profit on a positive first 'oil show' announcement.
BESBS
Thanks BESBS for your thoughts. How did you end up with PEP11? I sold enough just before TH to be free carried, but it was a close run thing. Still keen on the project, was fortunate to get in early. Expect your strategy pretty much relies on getting in early, 0.003 for BKP is great.
How many stocks do you tend to hold at any given time? I hold about 20 small/mid cap miners, and heavily weighted in the top two (both in Wyoming) represent about 30%, then down the line. l plan to hold my top five long term (50%). Tend to take profits as SPs increase, pick up new ones and sell off non-perfomers quite regularly. Are you full time on this?
Hope you don't mind Q's, just interested in your strategy as while delighted with my outcomes post GFC, am interested in BESBS concept, plan to stop working later this year.
Anyone gonna get in on the share repurchase plan?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?