CND - Condor Energy

[againsthegrain]

Re: BKP - Baraka Petroleum

Looks like 2c is a very big resistance point, maybye 3c was a bit optimistic this far pre spud. I have to admit I sold a large chunk of my holdings for now to lock in profits and going to monitor things. Have this ugly feeling that keeps coming up more and more regarding the "very possible cr" that was mentioned in the reply to the last trading halt. Management could be waiting to see how high they sp can get before they lock in a cr

 

[donteatme]

Re: BKP - Baraka Petroleum

Looks like 2c is a very big resistance point, maybye 3c was a bit optimistic this far pre spud. I have to admit I sold a large chunk of my holdings for now to lock in profits and going to monitor things. Have this ugly feeling that keeps coming up more and more regarding the "very possible cr" that was mentioned in the reply to the last trading halt. Management could be waiting to see how high they sp can get before they lock in a cr

By "cr" you mean capital raising?

Sorry about the noob question.

 

[againsthegrain]

Re: BKP - Baraka Petroleum

Thats correct

 

[kalin]

Re: BKP - Baraka Petroleum

interesting announcement today about the management changes.. nice to see that the canadians have been mentioned again... ;p
still holding... doesnt look like there will be too much of a retrace from the 2cent level.. hopefully...

 

[BESBS Player]

Re: BKP - Baraka Petroleum

G'day all.

Don't be too premature with estimates of just 2c pre-spud. This company has run hard since Christmas and it isn't surprising that we would get some re-tracing (I mentioned this a few days ago) as we are still some time from the real action.
Importantly, remember that we have not had any definite drilling announcements beyond the simple "expect late February" type statements. Personally, I am expecting m
March at best for this well. But once we have a definite spud date, I think that the punters shall suddenly start to climb on board and the SP will take another leg up very quickly.
While charts are effective for determing what is currently in the buy/sell columns, it doesn't assess the potential buyers who are waiting for this drilling confirmation before placing an order. Similarly, I (like so many holders) do not have sell orders in, so that does not show on any chart. Yet this drilling has so many 'tempters' for the trader and 'get-rich' punter once we have more definite news:
* virgin country with no negative history
* HUGE potential target of 4.2billion barrels (Ryder-Scott Report)
* at just 2c SP, the leverege to success is massive
* rig is organised. Funding confirmed in Canada.

Provided that the general market holds up OK and we have no delays beyond a March spud, I'd be surprised to see less than a 2.5c SP pre-spud. My gut feel is closer to 3c, then a quick CR to a sophisticated investor (possible) or even Canadians (most likely)-the latter would be a great union for future partnerships in Australia.

Just my thoughts.

Holding BKP at .003c

 

[donteatme]

Re: BKP - Baraka Petroleum

I was so close to selling off at 2.1c. Should've done it and reentered at 1.8c. Sigh.

 

[Liar's Poker]

Re: BKP - Baraka Petroleum

I was so close to selling off at 2.1c. Should've done it and reentered at 1.8c. Sigh.

Don't dwell on it too much mate. As they say, hindsight is so much clearer than foresight.

-Liar-

 

[ubtheboss]

Re: BKP - Baraka Petroleum

G'day all.

Don't be too premature with estimates of just 2c pre-spud. This company has run hard since Christmas and it isn't surprising that we would get some re-tracing (I mentioned this a few days ago) as we are still some time from the real action.
Importantly, remember that we have not had any definite drilling announcements beyond the simple "expect late February" type statements. Personally, I am expecting m
March at best for this well. But once we have a definite spud date, I think that the punters shall suddenly start to climb on board and the SP will take another leg up very quickly.
While charts are effective for determing what is currently in the buy/sell columns, it doesn't assess the potential buyers who are waiting for this drilling confirmation before placing an order. Similarly, I (like so many holders) do not have sell orders in, so that does not show on any chart. Yet this drilling has so many 'tempters' for the trader and 'get-rich' punter once we have more definite news:
* virgin country with no negative history
* HUGE potential target of 4.2billion barrels (Ryder-Scott Report)
* at just 2c SP, the leverege to success is massive
* rig is organised. Funding confirmed in Canada.

Provided that the general market holds up OK and we have no delays beyond a March spud, I'd be surprised to see less than a 2.5c SP pre-spud. My gut feel is closer to 3c, then a quick CR to a sophisticated investor (possible) or even Canadians (most likely)-the latter would be a great union for future partnerships in Australia.

Just my thoughts.

Holding BKP at .003c

sound reasoning B

 

[BESBS Player]

Re: BKP - Baraka Petroleum

I was so close to selling off at 2.1c. Should've done it and reentered at 1.8c. Sigh.

Hang in there. At spud, I don't think that you'll see this as a big problem.

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

Re: BKP - Baraka Petroleum

everyone is making assumptions pre spud. after the spud has been announced what do you see the share price doing with a good result??

 

[BESBS Player]

Re: BKP - Baraka Petroleum

everyone is making assumptions pre spud. after the spud has been announced what do you see the share price doing with a good result??

Hi BGG,

The reason I have not mentioned a SP post a good result, (and I suspect that this is the case for many others) is that there are far too many variables to work with.

Although the Ryder-Scott report says a potential 4.2 billion barrel target, the odds of this are remote at best. From my experience with companies drilling in high risk areas, I'd normally give a 1:10 chance of success, and then a 1:10 of that success being what they predict. So the question is, how big will the discovery be?

Positively here for BKP, a horizontal drilling approach is more likely to hit oil shows (and be successful) hence this is why they opted for the extra cost to drill using this technique. If one assumes that we commence drilling with a SP at between 2.5c-3c, then I'd expect that the SP will double IF they announce oil shows. Without further details of the column of oil bearing material, one can't really say any more. Add to this the fiasco of recent CTP drillings and announcements, some punters may be just a little wary of grandios announcements!

Complicating this scenario is the prospect of a quick capital raising by BKP (assumed to be close to spud). I'd see a quick placement (probably to the Canadians but could be an Aussie firm) and this might impact on the SP, especially if a firm then started to sell off stock at a quick profit on a positive first 'oil show' announcement.

Sorry I can't be more specific but without knowledge of the size of the discovery, and I personally think we have a greater chance of seeing 2011 being the year where the Hawaiin shirt and a tie becomes the fashion look with a business suit than a 4.2 billion barrel discovery being truly confirmed before H2 , then this is the most I would speculate.

Cheers,
BESBS

 

[BESBS Player]

Re: BKP - Baraka Petroleum

With March now approaching, I have decided to expand the approach toward BKP and add a quick BESBS play to compliment my previous current holdings purchased at .003c.

This contains some risk as the recent shares have been purchased at .018c. If drilling is delayed a month or two, bad weather sets in, an early CR is announced...all could hinder the SP in the short term.
That said, given I have already stated my reasoning for a probable (IMHO) 2.5c-3c pre-spud SP (hopefully a little north of 3c), then I would use this latter parcel to try and free-carry most of my .003c holding without having to sell any of the .003c shares pre-spud. While normally I would sell pre-spud, I think that the odds of a positive 'oil show announcement are high - using the horizontal drilling approach - and such an announcement could lift the SP quickly. With a base of .003c, the leverege is obvious.

Might end up with egg on my face but time will tell.

Holding BKP:

.003c main parcel
.018c trade parcel

 

[donteatme]

Re: BKP - Baraka Petroleum

Hang in there. At spud, I don't think that you'll see this as a big problem.

Sorry, what do you guys mean by "spud"?

Trying to learn all the lingo here Thanks mate!

 

[Donga]

Re: BKP - Baraka Petroleum

With March now approaching, I have decided to expand the approach toward BKP and add a quick BESBS play to compliment my previous current holdings purchased at .003c.

This contains some risk as the recent shares have been purchased at .018c. If drilling is delayed a month or two, bad weather sets in, an early CR is announced...all could hinder the SP in the short term.
That said, given I have already stated my reasoning for a probable (IMHO) 2.5c-3c pre-spud SP (hopefully a little north of 3c), then I would use this latter parcel to try and free-carry most of my .003c holding without having to sell any of the .003c shares pre-spud. While normally I would sell pre-spud, I think that the odds of a positive 'oil show announcement are high - using the horizontal drilling approach - and such an announcement could lift the SP quickly. With a base of .003c, the leverege is obvious.

Might end up with egg on my face but time will tell.

Holding BKP:

.003c main parcel
.018c trade parcel

Thanks BESBS for your thoughts. How did you end up with PEP11? I sold enough just before TH to be free carried, but it was a close run thing. Still keen on the project, was fortunate to get in early. Expect your strategy pretty much relies on getting in early, 0.003 for BKP is great.

How many stocks do you tend to hold at any given time? I hold about 20 small/mid cap miners, and heavily weighted in the top two (both in Wyoming) represent about 30%, then down the line. l plan to hold my top five long term (50%). Tend to take profits as SPs increase, pick up new ones and sell off non-perfomers quite regularly. Are you full time on this?

Hope you don't mind Q's, just interested in your strategy as while delighted with my outcomes post GFC, am interested in BESBS concept, plan to stop working later this year.

 

[donteatme]

Re: BKP - Baraka Petroleum

Anyone gonna get in on the share repurchase plan?

 

[BESBS Player]

Re: BKP - Baraka Petroleum

Hi BGG,

Complicating this scenario is the prospect of a quick capital raising by BKP (assumed to be close to spud). I'd see a quick placement (probably to the Canadians but could be an Aussie firm) and this might impact on the SP, especially if a firm then started to sell off stock at a quick profit on a positive first 'oil show' announcement.

BESBS

Well, "surprise, surprise, surprise" as Gomer Pyle would have said! Capital Raising announced. Looks like they are giving us the chance to participate (and hence going with an Aussie firm).

At 1.7c and at yesterday's share list, it is trying to give current holders a chance to participate at this late stage. I commend management for this, rather than taking a quick path by giving cheapies away to broking firms that undermine current holders.

It was also interesting to read that the SPP was timed to allow the placement to be completed before drilling. Did anyone notice the date for listing? As I have been saying, drilling will be later in March (probably) and not in February as BKP documentation have continued to spruik.

With these conditions, the SPP seems a fair entry point and also respects current holders. Remember though, this is purely a wildcat (despite the hype!!!). Leverege to reward shall be very large but the risk is also great when playing at these entry levels. Nevertheless, I see a nice potential BESBS play here befroe drilling commences, even from this level.

Holding .003c (main parcel)
Holding .018c (trading parcel)

 

[BESBS Player]

Re: BKP - Baraka Petroleum

Thanks BESBS for your thoughts. How did you end up with PEP11? I sold enough just before TH to be free carried, but it was a close run thing. Still keen on the project, was fortunate to get in early. Expect your strategy pretty much relies on getting in early, 0.003 for BKP is great.

How many stocks do you tend to hold at any given time? I hold about 20 small/mid cap miners, and heavily weighted in the top two (both in Wyoming) represent about 30%, then down the line. l plan to hold my top five long term (50%). Tend to take profits as SPs increase, pick up new ones and sell off non-perfomers quite regularly. Are you full time on this?

Hope you don't mind Q's, just interested in your strategy as while delighted with my outcomes post GFC, am interested in BESBS concept, plan to stop working later this year.

Hi Donga,

No problems with questions...happy to answer. I try to be as honest as possible, hence I post as soon as I buy and the SP at the time so that it is transparent.

1. Re. MMR and PEP11. I was very happy with this, a classic BESBS (Buy Early Sell Before Spud/Drill) play. All of this can be confirmed on the MMR thread. My initial play resulted in a 565% profit (bought in at 10c, sold at 68c). I then played the recent game with profits from the first result, in at 38c and out at 62c. This gave an additional 60% gain on the original 550% profit. Overall, a pleasing result.

2. Yes, strategy does rely on getting in early for the BIG plays. However, you can play the little 10-25% gains but these are purely for 1-4 week holds. Provided that you feel that your late entry point has a platform under the SP, then I will play it. This is largely how I see BKP now, in the light of the SPP. A new platform will be around 1.7c, so if you see a SP close to spud/drill between 2.4c- 3c, then a quick gain can be made. If you don't see this SP close to spud/drill, then one would avoid an entry here. It is all about preserving capital, yet going for large gains while trying to minimising risk in the big risk end of the market.

3. I don't tend to hold stocks as long-term holds to see them develop into established companies. I do try to keep to the BESBS model although occasionally a drill is delayed and I'm happy to invest and wait at a low SP entry point (although $$$ are tied up).
Although almost always oilers, I have rarely played a mining stock and OBJ 12-18 months ago. Generally I stick to what I feel confident in - oilers.

4. Sometimes I have 6-8 oilers, generally around 4 stocks. It all depends on how many companies fit the model of BESBS plays at the time. If there are no stocks, then I've learned to wait. In a bit of time, they do present themselves. BKP was an obvious BESBS play once I knew that the Canadians were sniffing around.

5. No, not in this game full-time. I teach Business Management but with the BESBS model, you generally don't have to be glued to the computer as it isn't day trading. It also allows you the freedom to have a great lifestyle but also research your stocks without the pressure of daily trading (if this suits you).

Anyway, hope that this helps.
All the best with your investments.

BESBS

 

[Liar's Poker]

Re: BKP - Baraka Petroleum

Anyone gonna get in on the share repurchase plan?

I won't be. I sold a portion of my holdings at 1.8 cents to recover my entry costs and make a small profit. Entering back in at 1.7 cents would defeat the purpose of my previous play.

I'll sit back and watch this BKP, with only un-realised profits at risk.

That's not to say that I don't agree with BESBS comments above, just sticking to the plan.



-Liar-

 

[BESBS Player]

Re: BKP - Baraka Petroleum

G'day LP,

Sounds to me that your approach is very sound. Minimise your risk while playing the riskier end of the market is the way to flourish long term in this game. I've tailored my approach to the BESBS style but also adjusted to a very low entry point. From what I can make of your case, I think it is most wise. No one ever went broke taking a profit!

 

[brendoz]

Re: BKP - Baraka Petroleum

i might be on my own (don't think i am though), but i was actually disappointed by the details of the capital raising.

i think, at this stage, and taking into account the small share price and volatility, 1.7c was too much of a ask for a CR. It should have been cheaper to entice more interest, and it should not have been exclusively to shareholders of the company- i think sophisticated investors should be able to take part too.

in the best interest of the company at this stage, which is to make sure they get the money through this CR to really get the ball rolling, these approaches would have a more guaranteed result. oversubscribed at a bit lower cost is better than undersubscribed.

im happy to be wrong, and if there is enough interest, then this approach will be much better for shareholders due to a higher amount raised and more shares left for existing investors. BUT, there is no point at having what we may call a fair price (not too cheap) for all of us invested, and then we all sit back and not buy into the CR, to see what happens. it completely defeats the purpose.