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Climate change another name for Weather

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rederob said:
I can see that you have been for some time on this topic.
When you can work out the key difference between the models you personally are familiar with, and climate models, come back for some debate.
By the way, climate models are not "chaotic". They attempt to replicate known outcomes over decades, the results of which vary minutely year on year.
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Tsk Tsk so nasty... and on Christmas morning as well.

The ghost of Christmas past hasn't dropped in has he?
 
wayneL said:
Part B of your argument could, indeed does, completely destroy your argument in Part A.
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You are very quick to reproduce the straw man argument in your defence.

You think you have a case and suggest:
Clearly you believe you have a grasp of the science; but your statement as quoted clearly shows that you don't, and have difficulty grasping the difference between modeling and real world observation.
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Whereas, climate models attempt to replicate the known past (real world observations as you call them) and model the key drivers of change based on scientific principles.

Let's go back to the chlorofluorocarbon debate to demonstrate a difference.
Although the science of ozone depletion was understood by 1974, scientists had to develop deductive models to predict likely consequences. Early models were fraught with massive variations of outcome, and were easy to debunk on those grounds alone. This did not mean the original "science" was junk, but that the scientific process was running its course concurrent with "objections" from skeptics with powerful vested interests (Dupont in the main).

Climate models are principally inductive: We can use well established "laws" to establish the inputs, and we know a lot about most interrelationships so that we can replicate known outcomes. The world is not perfect, so nor will be models. A range of factors will be constantly variable, and these are the areas where doubt will exist.

From a lay perspective the skeptics are able to suggest that the compounding effects of (what they would suggest are) arbitrary variables in the models makes them totally unreliable. But in the case of climate models the ultimate arbiter of "temperature" will always be radiative forcing, not the variability of interrelationships.
 
slim pickins said:
It seems all very unfair, we are down to only one member of the church of climetology. The rest must be out whale watching, or tree hugging
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You are right...only one man standing, the dependable Red Rob. However, I don't think he is as really committed to the cause as his fellow disciples. It is just that he is quarrelsome by nature and loves an argument.

I think that if it had been the conservatives who were pushing the GW barrow Red Rob would oppose it and probably use similar unintelligible arguments. Well, maybe they are not unintelligible but that "I am incapable of understanding" or I am "so poorly educated," or I "need a crash course on the 'science'"

In other words I (and you too probably) haven't been suitably indoctrinated.
 
slim pickins said:
Redrob, if you think that CO2 is a problem could you outline a solution?
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Wayne has outlined courses of action we could all follow, an Smurf has added his 2 cents regularly (I think we have a dollar from him already in this thread).
Wayne and Smurf and I might disagree on some things, but I suspect they realise that only fundamental changes at an individual level will ultimately drive global changes.
Your dilemma may be that in not accepting that CO2 is an issue (and it then turns out to be), you take no action at all.
 
rederob said:
Crudely, every fart counts, as Garpal is only too aware.
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"poisoned by their petards maybe?" (French for fart is almost identical) :eek:

Some post back there challenged people who wish to take the cautious route on this matter to sell them their shoreside properties.

slim pickins said:
after considering all the evidence I have concluded that there is no global warming as a result of human activity....

... Global warming is a good thing and we should strive toward that end. Within reason.

Global warming fanatics should put their money where their mouth is and sell all waterfront property to us sceptics. I don't see that happening. In fact those properties just keep appreciating. ...
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Already there have been cases in Aus, where the courts have ruled against developments.

http://www.domain.com.au/Public/Art...e=Coastal development all at sea over climate
Coastal development all at sea over climate
Date: September 15, 2008
Publication: The Age (subscribe)

A similar planning dilemma drew national attention last month when the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal banned residential development on low-lying farm land in South Gippsland, citing among its reasons the possibility of flooding from climate change.

...
One general insurer has estimated that the value of coastal property in Australia at risk to rising sea levels and erosion is between $50 billion and $150 billion.

In a submission to a Federal Government inquiry, the insurer even suggests an insurance fund into which owners of low-lying land would pay a regular levy for compensation when sea levels cause their land to become permanently unusable.

...
The City of Melbourne has passed a motion to consider amending its planning scheme to account for storms and sea level rises due to climate change.

Stormwater from large sections of metropolitan Melbourne is drained into Port Phillip Bay through drainage pipes, many of which will be under water on the basis of some sea level predictions.
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Vic Govt clarified their policy on this 2 weeks ago (12 dec 08) :-

Victorian Coastal Strategy apparently assumes 0.8m rise by 2100. :eek:
http://www.vcc.vic.gov.au/2008vcs/VCS2008_FAQs.pdf

(part of this website - go to FAQ's)
http://www.vcc.vic.gov.au/vcs.htm

Hey, I have no idea how much it will rise - but sounds like the Law believes it will rise. - and significantly.

btw, those who wish to challenge "money where mouth" etc scoff etc.

Why not put YOUR money where your mouth is ? - buy a big gasguzzling hummer - see what resale value you'll have in 10 years ;)

http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=12460
GM, Utility Companies Team up to Improve Electric Vehicle Infrastructure
Shane McGlaun (Blog) - July 23, 2008 11:05 AM

The Wall Street Journal reports that Congress is considering legislation that would set a price on carbon-dioxide emissions and that utility companies that prove their electricity is helping to replace gasoline could get special consideration.
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This is the direction the innovative people are moving in. (correction - trying to move in).
The progressives.
Those not in denial. :2twocents
 

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You blokes ever heard of Lloyds?

http://www.domain.com.au/Public/Art...e=Coastal development all at sea over climate

A new report published by Lloyd's and Risk Management Solutions warns that without adaptation, insurance losses from coastal flooding for high-risk properties could double by 2030.

Lloyd's chief executive Richard Ward says: "With over half the world's population expected to live within 100 kilometres of the coastline in 25 years' time, it is imperative that we address this risk now by starting to adapt.

"The world cannot insure its way out of climate change, but the insurance industry can play a key role in the fight against it by encouraging adaptation.

"If this doesn't happen, insurance will become more expensive and less available."
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slim pickins said:
It seems all very unfair, we are down to only one member of the church of climetology. The rest must be out whale watching, or tree hugging.



?????
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Calliope said:
You are right...only one man standing, the dependable Red Rob.
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Slim and Calliope you spoke too soon.

The elves have returned from helping Santa.

More youtubes, graphs, pictures of earth and other demonic arts with which to torture us.

gg
 
I wish all contributors to this thread an enjoyable Xmas day.

I guess these guys will survive GW.
 

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I am warned that a festive season (and visitors) have arrived.
I wish to add a "sanity clause" to this thread, for this day.
May you all be at peace and enjoy the company that keeps you.
Till the morrow.
;)
 
rederob said:
Snake
I can see you are trying hard to keep up.
Here's a crash course on the "science":
http://www.awi.de/fileadmin/user_up...al_carbon_cycle/pk_cc_02_ghgforce_handout.pdf
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Sir,:rolleyes:

Thanks for your opinion.
I will graduate your crash course shortly. Any tax payers robbing job offers available if I successfully graduate? I can add my wikipedia knowledge to go with it so maybe there is a good posy out there for me. Hey if I get one I could use tax payers money and buy a big screen TV and say it is for work whilst pushing the global warming agenda too.

Life must be great for some. I must be dreaming. Slap. Slap.

Merry, merry Christmas!

Oh, and on the sea/land ice issue we are still waiting.
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
Slim and Calliope you spoke too soon.

The elves have returned from helping Santa.
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strange that gg

Ever since you bet me that McCain would beat Obama, I've been referring to you as Santa Claus ;)

btw, the closest thing to a bookie in this case would be the likes of the big insurance companies yes? :2twocents
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
Slim and Calliope you spoke too soon.

The elves have returned from helping Santa.

More youtubes, graphs, pictures of earth and other demonic arts with which to torture us.

gg
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2020hindsight said:
strange that gg

Ever since you bet me that McCain would beat Obama, I've been referring to you as Santa Claus ;)

btw, the closest thing to a bookie in this case would be the likes of the big insurance companies yes? :2twocents
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Welcome back from the North Pole mate.

Volunteering is good for the soul.

Where do I send the money for the carton of beer?

ps I refuse to subsidise South Australian beer.

gg
 
yes GG, we got another one, and he's a live one too. So there is am offer of a christmas truce hehe. Just like WW1. Is that how far we've come :)

hindsight, of course a looney labor government in victoria will pass such development laws. They want votes from people like you:) doesn't change the fact that the worlds richest people are buying on the water. As close as possible!

Loyds says insurance claims will double by 2030...... LOL of course they will. Primarily because the earths population will double too.

Insurance companies offering insurance for something that won't happen.... Nothing unusual there. That's good business prectice!

I'll offer anyone here insurance on their property against rising sea levels (not storm surge), just rising sea levels, at half the price of lloyds. Ill back it up with all my assets.

Has anyone actually seen the sea level rise anywhere in the world? Compare your childhood photos of walled European ports to pictures available now. (easier to compare then a sloped Aussie beach succeptible to erosion) and you will see the ocean is where it has been for 40 years.

And if you look at paintings of seawalls etc in places like Istanbul or Malta you will see that the ocean is the same as 300-400 years ago. Merry x mass
 
yeah, I love the way Queenslanders steal the headwater runoff - then refuse to even consider recycled water.

"I'm not drinking something that went through another person!!" said one old duck on TV after the Toowoomba referendum.

Meanwhile Adelaide has to drink "water" (sic) that has been through 18 people, 35 cows, two of which were dead for a week, and a few dozen dogs. :rolleyes:

PS no probs - your humility is enough reward lol. (yeah right I hear you say).
PS here's to Xmas. and 2009.
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
Welcome back from the North Pole mate.
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actually I was given 3 days purgatory for daring to suggest that Calliope didn't know how to spell Boult ;)
mind you he doesn't have the integrity to admit it ;)

post #504 refers (note the little "removed" sign) = "Calliope doesn't know how to spell Boult".
Meanwhile he retorts with "2020 has blown his bolt etc .." (after I'd told him how to spell it lol)- not deleted :)


amazing consistency with the referrees around here ;)
 
2020hindsight said:
actually I was given 3 days purgatory for daring to suggest that Calliope didn't know how to spell Boult ;)
mind you he doesn't have the integrity to admit it ;)
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You poor old thing. I thought you were a protected species. So I spelt a name wrong, There's no need to throw a hissy fit. I am sure there will be plenty more trivial things for you to nitpick about.

There was a positive side though. At your rate of 10 a day we were spared 30 of your long boring posts. You are making us pay for it though with overload in spades.
 
It was a beautiful day in Townsville today.

The sun rose in the East.

It was a dry day, very little cloud in the sky, though some quite high up.

Visibility was 10k at Townsville Airport and reported to be 31 degrees at 2pm, but I thought it was warmer.

It was a dry heat with little wind.

The heat out of the shade became uncomfortable at 0740.

The sun set in the West.

There are some beautiful stars in a clear night at present.

gg
 
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