CLE - Cyclone Metals

[skint]

That information doesn't need to be released up until 30 days after purchase. Even be then in this case its pretty unlikely because unless its over a 5% stake it doesn't need to be declared.

I didn't see the 10m trade go through. What price did it go through at and how quickly was it snapped up?

 

[mahmoodf]

Go to http://www.stocknessmonster.com/ to see all the trades for CFE. The 10,000,000 stands out like a sore thumb.

 

[Ruprect]

I think im getting sloppy, totally missed that 10mil trade go through, was curious why the trade was so high in comparison to the oppies! In my defence, i wasnt watching all day!

However, a 10mil on market trade is a large degree of confidence in this one. If thats not a prime example of major institutional/investor support, i dont know what is.

 

[Ruprect]

Having traded down for all of the day, hitting 65 cents, very large buy orders went through on both the heads and the options in pre close to push CFE up for the day. 320k trade on the heads, and 210k on the options. Same thing happened to MGO.

CFE did say there would be an annoucnement prior to the 16th of July. Thats just 10 trading days away. Could we be seeing something next week perhaps?

That single 10 million share trade still leaves me with a great deal of confidence here.

 

[Porper]

Having traded down for all of the day, hitting 65 cents, very large buy orders went through on both the heads and the options in pre close to push CFE up for the day. 320k trade on the heads, and 210k on the options. Same thing happened to MGO.

CFE did say there would be an annoucnement prior to the 16th of July. Thats just 10 trading days away. Could we be seeing something next week perhaps?

That single 10 million share trade still leaves me with a great deal of confidence here.

CFE is retracing on very little volume at the moment.

People took profits on the announcement, which appears to have fizzled out.

I am waiting for the volume to come back in with a good solid close and I will be back in for another low risk high return trade hopefully.

It should bounce from the end of the projected wave C at around 0.60, the target is around 0.93.

That's my take anyway.

 

[Porper]

CFE is retracing on very little volume at the moment.

People took profits on the announcement, which appears to have fizzled out.

I am waiting for the volume to come back in with a good solid close and I will be back in for another low risk high return trade hopefully.

It should bounce from the end of the projected wave C at around 0.60, the target is around 0.93.

That's my take anyway.

Looks like I am posting to myself here , never mind, may be of some interest to some people.

A good bounce today although volume was disappointing, but the fact remains wave C could have finished and we could be into our wave 3 leg higher to around the 0.93 area.(We didn't quite get to the projected 0.60, just one cent off).

A break through wave A would signal this.A break through on volume would be a stronger signal.

Risk reward would be just under 4 with a stop just below the wave C low at 0.605. and a buy stop at 0.675.

Maybe not a high enough risk reward set up for me, I'll have a "discretionary" think about it

 

[skint]

Looks like I am posting to myself here , never mind, may be of some interest to some people.

A good bounce today although volume was disappointing, but the fact remains wave C could have finished and we could be into our wave 3 leg higher to around the 0.93 area.(We didn't quite get to the projected 0.60, just one cent off).

A break through wave A would signal this.A break through on volume would be a stronger signal.

Risk reward would be just under 4 with a stop just below the wave C low at 0.605. and a buy stop at 0.675.

Maybe not a high enough risk reward set up for me, I'll have a "discretionary" think about it

Hi Porper, Thanks for posting the charts. Although I trade on the fundadmentals, its always good to see a chartist's perspective. From your chart, are you suggesting that a break through .67c on volume may indicate a run into the nineties? Quite a few potential catalysts could provide the volume IMO. These include Mr Ding exercising his options, the results of the General Meeting, the first payment for the deal and the updated resource model. All these are due over the next few weeks. For reasons outlined earlier in this thread, I believe the fundamentals remain very strong with CFE. I'll be holding as I don't believe true value has been factored into CFE in comparison to others in the iron ore business. As CFE moves toward production, I can't see any reason for CFE not to follow the way of MMX and others and lose is laggard status, unless the whole project falls over. Nothing has indicated to date that this is likely. Quite the opposite in fact.

 

[Porper]

From your chart, are you suggesting that a break through .67c on volume may indicate a run into the nineties?

Hello Skint,

The first signal would be a break of 0.67, yes.Confirmation would be a break of 0.72.

Note that my projections are minimum targets.

Also be aware that if we break up there could be a retrace to around the level we are at now, maybe a bit higher before heading higher again.

 

[CanOz]

Noce one Porper, flirting with all time highs too.

Some good ole fashion trendlines and support and resistance there too.

What your take on a position and or the R/R?

Cheers,

 

[Porper]

Noce one Porper, flirting with all time highs too.

Some good ole fashion trendlines and support and resistance there too.

What your take on a position and or the R/R?

Cheers,

Can,

Look at my post 3 or so above this one for R/R position.

It's panned out nicely up to now, I don't hold at the moment but am very tempted.

The only thing that concerns me is the last bar up on bugger all volume.

The risk is if we buy now it just ranges for a while before moving up.

Downside looks minimal though which is something I always look at first.

 

[chris1983]

Thanks Porps for the charts. We are all still waiting for that deal confirmation. Once that is through we are looking good. Price movement on friday is hopefully a good sign on whats to come. Investors loading up before the deal is confirmed. Ive been waiting for this for quite some time but its an easy way to make money IMO. Its really not that long to wait to grab an easy money. I mean we have 300mt confirmed..Ding has bought options..Ding owns steel mills..Ding is loaded and he needs iron ore..how obvious do you need it to be. Thats why I loaded up in the low to mid 20's for the oppies. If the deal did fall through there would be a slide initially..but I just cant see how it wont go ahead.

 

[Ruprect]

Well said Chris. I think we did see on Friday the start of the moves of those who rightly expect the announcement of the confirmation in the coming week. It has to be out before the meeting on the 16th.

I think also we cant underestimate the 10million single trade that went through at 72.5c last week. A confirmation of the deal might well result in more of the same - big players taking a significant stake.

The benefit of that occurring will be that the sell down by short term traders after the confirmation would not result in the downward movement again like it has after the intial announcement and CFE's own resource confirmation recently. Any selling pressure would be offset by serious investors looking for the next iron ore explorer moving to producer.

If that occurs, we could be in for a serious re-rating. I also note that by the middle of July, (which is this week) CFE expects to have the results of recent drilling, with more to come soon. So not only will we have the potential of confirmation this week, we should have drilling results.

Up to 30 June 2007, the Company had completed 11 RC holes for an advance of 4,425
metres. These holes were designed to infill to the north of the southeast extent of section
13,200 east (refer Figure 2 and 3).
The Company expects to receive the DTR results from the first two RC holes toward the
middle of July.

 

[jammin]

Porper, great chart, the wave count (IMH beginner opinion) looks solid. I feel the form of wave 4 (completed Thursday) alternates with the form of wave 2, lending further "confidence" in the count.

 

[porkpie324]

After forming a near perfect gravestone doji on 25/06/07 the shares were distributed on volume which is a definate sell, yesterdays sp rise was on average volume, so perhaps some caution with CFE.
Having said that, CFE is not on my shortlist and I hav'nt done any fundemental analysis.porkpie

 

[MR.]

I'm still hanging in there. If I had a mine and $192 us million was on the line I would think that I'd make sure the 300mt is proved up asap. Unless.

CFE release of 600mt CTA recently (couple of weeks ago). Confirmation included both Robe's data and CFE's samples. I would suspect the geo's for ding might exclude Robes data. Where's the dirt?

Anyway, with the recent price increases in Iron Ore and demand I think if the resource was just shy of 300mt a deal will still be struck with ding.
How are you guys holding up?

 

[Ruprect]

Going alright MR.

We should see something from them tomorrow or Friday. Bit hard to run a meeting on Monday asking for people to vote on the confirmation if it doesnt exist!

But they did say an announcement before the 16th, and they have been pretty good with updates in the past.

The expectation of an announcement may be reflected in late trade, hitting the 70c mark, and threatening to break through it.

 

[mahmoodf]

How are you guys holding up?

Very well MR! As Ruprect has alluded, hopefully we will get an announcement either tomorrow or Friday. And fingers crossed it will confirm that Cape have the 300Mt resource to satisfy Mr. Ding and start the cash flowing.

 

[Ruprect]

well thats it, only one more day to go...well, all things being equal, the announcement regarding confirmation or not should be out after close today, first thing tomorrow...or even during the day.

Not sure how they could leave the announcement until monday, given thats when the meeting is on.

Oh the suspense.....

 

[MR.]

OK Guys good to here your still hanging in there with me. I have some news. I spoke to Tony Sage and got this information direct.

The Geo’s Golder and RSG were given the same information at the same time. Golder came up with a resource far in excess of 300mts as per ann’ a couple of weeks ago. RSG has to do more work than Golder because the Chinese have given them extra tasks which have nothing to do with the actual confirmation of the 300mt. So this perhaps might be the delay. Tony did confirm that “The Chinese agreed to accept data from Robe’s results.”
Both Tony and Ian (Tony claimed) both have no doubt that there is in access of 300mt’s. He added that if the result was only 300mt’s the Chinese will be thinking “what have we done”
Robes finding’s were in excess of 2 billion tonnes, Tony claimed. I didn’t go into depth of the 255mt as I have written about earlier. (perhaps a little late to bring this up, we know Golders result)
The Chinese have 8 staff assigned to the jv. Three are already at the jv office. Three million dollars has already been spent by the Chinese, housing, cars etc. Is this an indication that the Chinese are worried?
Tony also pointed out that he has exercised some of his options.

OK now I have looked into these options (asx 2/7/07) it appears no one else has bothered to. The market fell down to $0.32 cfeo and $0.61 cfe in the days after the option ann’. The market saw the release as bad news as it appears. Now why would Tony exercise (indirect 1) 1.5 million options at $0.40 totalling a cost of $600,000- ? They expire at the end of the year! (Tony spent $600,000)
He already has 11.6 million fully paid shares in (indirect 1)
If he wanted the money why not just sell some of the 11.6 million.

If Tony sold all the 1.5 million shares just exercised in one of the up and coming announcements at $1.20 per share he has the cash to exercise the rest of (indirect 1) options of 4.5 million by the end of the year. I hope its the (second ann’ being the cash in the bank) but if it got near $1.20 before hand I can’t blame him. Now why did he spend $600,000 dollars? comments anyone?

Tim Turner’s sale on the 4/4/07 (asx 6months) is different to Tony’s when he does sell. Tony has put his money up first. Although I would still have done as Tim Turner did if I was him.

Ruprect if there is any bad news it will not be today.

Many of you are in Perth. I am in Qld. Is or Can anyone get to that meeting on Monday?

 

[mahmoodf]

Resource has been confirmed by independent geologist as satisfying the sale condition. Shares are steady, not much movement at all. Maybe the resource figure is not big enough?