CHN - Chalice Mining

[Sean K]

Announced after market close - final approvals for their application to do low impact drilling in the state forest. Maybe this will rip now? (plaintively)

View attachment 141892

Has been a victim of the general market and metals sell off. Looked way oversold back down in the 5s. Maybe that was the opportunity to have a nibble. Hopefully they can get the drills into where they need to drill out the optimum part of Hartog. I'd take a stab and say this will have a good day on this news.

 

[finicky]

Chalice is still not out of my best fit downtrend channel. Some hesitation here would not surprise. 'Hesitation' is being optimistic of course.

Daily

 

[finicky]

Chalice doing an institutional placement for $100m @ $6 per share to provide 18 months of funding. Seems the right move really given the possible major market events that many speculate could lie ahead. But the brokers. Bell Potter and Macquarie, take 3.5% of the raised cash for doing the job = $3.5 million dollars?!

 

[peter2]

Naturally the share price falls closer to $6.00. Will this cap raise provide some support at this level?

CHN has got approval to extend it's drilling into the National Park. Time to find out if the resource does extend into the park. If it does, there's going to be a long and bitter fight in order to be able to mine it. How long for the drill results to be known? 3 - 4 months?
It's a case of "do you feel lucky, punk? "

 

[Sean K]

Naturally the share price falls closer to $6.00. Will this cap raise provide some support at this level?

CHN has got approval to extend it's drilling into the National Park. Time to find out if the resource does extend into the park. If it does, there's going to be a long and bitter fight in order to be able to mine it. How long for the drill results to be known? 3 - 4 months?
It's a case of "do you feel lucky, punk? "

This is an interesting stock, that's for sure. The cap raise at this level with instos on board should be a longer term floor you'd think.

There's two things going on here, IMO.

Value it on the current resource, which I think is mostly factored into the SP, less general market weakness and metals drop off. So, long term, I think it's looking nice if you're patient.

Or, speculate that they'll find something north in Hartog like they currently have and then maybe get a mining licence because it's so valuable. That could mean double the current MC.

Time frame? It could be the first hole.

But, what if Hartog is dust?

I've gone back through the recent presentations to see if the north of the deposit indicates in continues but, the cartoons clearly show that the north of Gonneville lowers in resources.

@finicky has probably looked at the northern potential more than me.

Still might come down to 'do you feel lucky'...

 

[Sean K]

This is an interesting stock, that's for sure. The cap raise at this level with instos on board should be a longer term floor you'd think.

There's two things going on here, IMO.

Value it on the current resource, which I think is mostly factored into the SP, less general market weakness and metals drop off. So, long term, I think it's looking nice if you're patient.

Or, speculate that they'll find something north in Hartog like they currently have and then maybe get a mining licence because it's so valuable. That could mean double the current MC.

Time frame? It could be the first hole.

But, what if Hartog is dust?

I've gone back through the recent presentations to see if the north of the deposit indicates in continues but, the cartoons clearly show that the north of Gonneville lowers in resources.

@finicky has probably looked at the northern potential more than me.

Still might come down to 'do you feel lucky'...

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Although, maybe this cartoon indicates it does go north? See blue boxes on the left. It just hasn't been drilled enough.

 

[peter2]

IMO Chalice is wasting time, a lot of time. Surely, what they've already found would be enough to create a DFS and a mine construction plan. The bonus is the extra resource to the north and if the mineral production is as good as thought, then in 3-5 years they could start applications to continue to mine in the north.

Of course it is possible that CHN just want to delineate the total resource before selling it on to a large miner.

 

[finicky]

I can't add much of substance at the moment but off the top of my head: I think they've hit economic grades right up to the fence. Hartog is 'just over the other side'. Hartog has the stronger looking electromag signature. They won't be drilling only Hartog, I think its Dampier, the other one, as well as regional first pass drilling. Also there's a prospect called Flinders on private land I think and there are the Jansz and Torres prospects they are already drilling. All in the Julimar complex of course, they have a couple of other things going on outside Julimar but still along the Yilgarn Craton edge - one is a jv with VMS (Thor) which they have electromag on and I think were at soil chemistry testing stage.
The positive case is that they have enough money now to do whatever they want for at least 18 months and the Insts by their swift uptake seem to think it's worth at least $6. Also we can't know an offer from a major won't come from left field.
I wouldn't be buying myself because I have no idea of what it is currently worth, never have. Let alone how the general market will impact it in the year or two ahead.
Re environmental: someone suggested they could develop a pit at Gonneville then a drive underground to Hartog if it is the right sort of deposit - might be fantasy.

 

[Sean K]

IMO Chalice is wasting time, a lot of time. Surely, what they've already found would be enough to create a DFS and a mine construction plan. The bonus is the extra resource to the north and if the mineral production is as good as thought, then in 3-5 years they could start applications to continue to mine in the north.

Of course it is possible that CHN just want to delineate the total resource before selling it on to a large miner.

I can't add much of substance at the moment but off the top of my head: I think they've hit economic grades right up to the fence. Hartog is 'just over the other side'. Hartog has the stronger looking electromag signature. They won't be drilling only Hartog, I think its Dampier, the other one, as well as regional first pass drilling. Also there's a prospect called Flinders on private land I think and there are the Jansz and Torres prospects they are already drilling. All in the Julimar complex of course, they have a couple of other things going on outside Julimar but still along the Yilgarn Craton edge - one is a jv with VMS (Thor) which they have electromag on and I think were at soil chemistry testing stage.
The positive case is that they have enough money now to do whatever they want for at least 18 months and the Insts by their swift uptake seem to think it's worth at least $6. Also we can't know an offer from a major won't come from left field.
I wouldn't be buying myself because I have no idea of what it is currently worth, never have. Let alone how the general market will impact it in the year or two ahead.
Re environmental: someone suggested they could develop a pit at Gonneville then a drive underground to Hartog if it is the right sort of deposit - might be fantasy.

I agree, they could go straight to DFS from here, but would need significant infill to get a reserve, BFS (if needed), financing to build and off-takes - at least two years away. But they could start that with what they've got now. It's like RTR pussing around without committing to a plan to mine. Just run with Gonneville and let the income pay for destroying the national park.

On the surface of it, why hasn't BHP turned up on the register?

 

[finicky]

@Sean K yes, I thought BHP might be a fit too, as they seem to like 'green' metals these days.

 

[finicky]

Yeah, so nothing to worry about here - Gap closed ?

 

[finicky]

This is just great - big falls in U.S indices, gold down heavily and Palladium down almost 8%!
Anyone who has bought CHN in the last year is now losing and tax loss selling continues to be an option.
My imaginary downtrend channel is under pressure to the downside.
Just can't wait for the ASX to open.

 

[eskys]

Gold looks like brass today

 

[finicky]

CHN not only dropped out of any orderly channel, it gapped out. It slipped through the rail and it's free falling. The opposite of what I expected to eventually happen - and that's with rigs now accessing Hartog and just finished raising $100m from instos @ $6 per share. Out of ideas now, maybe it'll fill that f'g gap down at 1.80

 

[peter2]

Reckon they'll be drilling as fast as they can and paying the lab for faster results. Good drill results is the only thing that's going to stem this flow. If they get great results in the National park, what's next?

CHN mgt need to announce their strategy. Just sitting isn't an option unless they prefer to sell to a multi-national miner.

 

[Sean K]

Reckon they'll be drilling as fast as they can and paying the lab for faster results. Good drill results is the only thing that's going to stem this flow. If they get great results in the National park, what's next?

CHN mgt need to announce their strategy. Just sitting isn't an option unless they prefer to sell to a multi-national miner.

This is their general plan of attack.

Next key thing is probably Hartog initial drilling results, MRE #2 on Gonneville end of Q2 and then Scoping Study Q3.

Looks like they're going to PFS on what they have while still doing exploration drilling.

 

[Sean K]

Looks like sellers might be drying up. For now. At a nice discount to that $6 placement. Ouch. Surely this deposit is going to be worth more than a $1.3b MC?

 

[Sean K]

Crikey, Off another 6%, $10 to sub $3.50 in 6 months. I'm sure Gonneville is going to turn into a significant mine in five years or so and be very valuable. Might look back at this period (however long this goes for) as a good opportunity. We haven't really had a dead cat yet, so wondering if there's still a pause and another leg down. No real signs of significant buying yet that I can tell. Maybe capitulation still to come.

 

[greggles]

Crikey, Off another 6%, $10 to sub $3.50 in 6 months. I'm sure Gonneville is going to turn into a significant mine in five years or so and be very valuable. Might look back at this period (however long this goes for) as a good opportunity. We haven't really had a dead cat yet, so wondering if there's still a pause and another leg down. No real signs of significant buying yet that I can tell. Maybe capitulation still to come.

$3.50 ended up being the low. News of a new mineralised zone at the Dampier Target is likely to put a floor under the CHN share price for now. Back over $4 today.

 

[finicky]

So that's the:

• 07 July announcement of a new mineralised zone at Dampier prospect, NE of Hartog and Gonneville, as well as the ..
• 08 July announcement and Preso of the updated Gonneville mineral resource estimate ..

.. All thoroughly dismissed now in the price action over a mere 3 days.
Sheen has sure gone off CHN, guess a lot of it was momentum money in the first place.
Fun times.

Daily