CHN - Chalice Mining

[Sean K]

So that's the:

• 07 July announcement of a new mineralised zone at Dampier prospect, NE of Hartog and Gonneville, as well as the ..
• 08 July announcement and Preso of the updated Gonneville mineral resource estimate ..

.. All thoroughly dismissed now in the price action over a mere 3 days.
Sheen has sure gone off CHN, guess a lot of it was momentum money in the first place.
Fun times.

Daily
View attachment 144002

Unless there's a depression that lasts 5 years or more, this will still be a great long term play IMO. Once there's a recovery and the West stays off Russian (and maybe Chinese) resources, the electrification metals will go nuts. The market seems to have factored in long-term demand destruction.

 

[Sean K]

Might be able to get this back in the 3s again shortly.

No idea what an NPV could be. 350Mt @.58%NiEq for 2Mt NiEq @20,000t = $40b in the ground. So far. Not sure how much of that gets mined though.

EV around $1.5b.

Scoping Study due in Sep. That will be interesting.

 

[finicky]

Well, "He who lives in Hope will Die in Despair"
Ignoring that -

• Nice reversal today after a gap down on open.
• Unusual looking consolidation last 8 days.
• Mid July the price returned to its channel
• 
  
• 

 

[Sean K]

Well, "He who lives in Hope will Die in Despair"
Ignoring that -

• Nice reversal today after a gap down on open.
• Unusual looking consolidation last 8 days.
• Mid July the price returned to its channel
• 
  
• View attachment 146300

My chart is slightly different to yours, not sure why. Potential double bottom at $3.50, just made a higher low perhaps. Could be just about to sit on top of the 50dma.

Short term I think just about everything is at the mercy of the general market dynamics though.

Having said that, I think Gonneville already has enough scale and the relevant commodities to be a very long term strategic asset. They seem to be shoring up their overall management and board expecting to take it to mining themselves, but I can't see it as a stand alone mine. Surely BHP et al are looking at it.

I still haven't actually bought any of this. Not sure what I'm waiting for.

 

[frugal.rock]

Your chart is 7 months daily, Huck Finn's is 12 months daily.
So yours is stretched out more, less range, different vertical exaggeration.
Finn's the reverse.

 

[Sean K]

Scoping Study delayed by about 3 months. Poor darts.

Dampier drilling isn't very exciting, is it? Comparable to initial drilling at Gonneville? Not sure.

Sounds like they need to put a few holes under Hartog to see what's at depth.

I'm not sure where their Hartog drilling results are except for the comment in todays ann, see below. You'd think if they pulled up dirt from those holes it should have been announced, in detail, to the market?? Can't find it anywhere.

 

[finicky]

I found it a pretty boring announcement but might be enough to bounce the price out of that funny little consolidation shape that it has been making.
That they're postulating from seismic a big extension of Gonneville at greater depth to the northwest might interest the market. Yes what happened to Hartog, it seemed brimming with potential.
I barely read their announcements now - they've always been too technical for my digestion - it's all in the chart now and that's just a bummer. I've paper lost the equivalent of a decent house in my town on this so far, from the peak to the current price .. waaahhh
I could have packed the house chockablock with refugees trying to make it at the local meatworks.

Held

 

[finicky]

The chart congestion resolving in the wrong direction. That'd be right.
Keith Goode on twitter @eagleresa reckoned the announcement was Goode but doubts that ppl understood it. I'll endorse that.

"Great result from the seismic at Gonneville on the State Forest boundary and north by
@ChaliceMining $CHN and update on other prospects - not sure ppl completely understood it tho - shows extension starting from 500m below surface to a depth of 1.4km, from ~1.6km further north."

Held

Daily

 

[Sean K]

The chart congestion resolving in the wrong direction. That'd be right.
Keith Goode on twitter @eagleresa reckoned the announcement was Goode but doubts that ppl understood it. I'll endorse that.

"Great result from the seismic at Gonneville on the State Forest boundary and north by
@ChaliceMining $CHN and update on other prospects - not sure ppl completely understood it tho - shows extension starting from 500m below surface to a depth of 1.4km, from ~1.6km further north."

Held

Daily
View attachment 146459

The extension into Hartog area below 500m is speculative. But, if it does and the grade and widths are still there then who knows. Could be like finding a Cadia East or the Swan zone at Fosterville. Or, it's dirt.

They seem to be wasting time here to me. They already have a tier 1 asset. DFS, finance, procure, contract, start digging.

 

[Rabbithop]

On 12/8 Tim Goyder sold 10.76% of what he owned 10.79%..What does it says about the stock? Not been a smart alert. I am trying to learn/ understand from your view point. I am not a holder but watching it, $4 was my entry thought.

 

[Sean K]

There's a lot of drill holes reported in the back of this ann with not a lot of great hits other than the few mentioned on the first page. Confirmed that Hartog is dirt (maybe that's why excitement has gone) but Gonneville perhaps extends at depth. The intersections they have down there are OK but it's hard to tell if the continuity of width and grade is going to be there to go UG.

Confirmed to be looking for a JV partner. I wonder if it's big enough for BHP yet.

 

[finicky]

Blinked yesterday and today and sold 10,000 shares towards paying my onerous fy22 CGT tax bill.

After past disappointment it looks like they might have found the Hartog deposit deeper than expected and offset from Gonneville by a fault. An announcement like that made a year ago would likely have seen the share price push on but disillusionment and general market malaise seems to have set in.

Held

 

[finicky]

Don't have a ruler with me but just used the edge of a paper napkin and must be on the verge of breaking the longer downtrend line resistance. Not that I'm holding my breath, sold another 5,000 @4.41 on the open. It's all going to the tax man.

Held

Daily

 

[Sean K]

Don't have a ruler with me but just used the edge of a paper napkin and must be on the verge of breaking the longer downtrend line resistance. Not that I'm holding my breath, sold another 5,000 @4.41 on the open. It's all going to the tax man.

Held

Daily
View attachment 148248

 

[Sean K]

It's still tracking that downward resistance @finicky

I still really like this as a long term play, even if they discovery zip on the rest of their tenements. For me it's just a matter of accepting the short term risk of market capitulation and the medium to long term outlook for what it has in the ground. Still just watching.

 

[finicky]

@Sean K I see no problem in waiting for the resistance line to be emphatically broken. It's what I'd be doing nowadays if buying, assuming I would resist the temptation of a 'bargain' - not a sure thing.
Who can really value what the resource is worth, given volatile commodity prices, grade and metallurgy, market precariousness, geopolitical risk, probability of dilution, capital cost to develop? I haven't even tried - it's a punt. Fortunately I don't need to sell more for a while.

Held

 

[Sean K]

@Sean K I see no problem in waiting for the resistance line to be emphatically broken. It's what I'd be doing nowadays if buying, assuming I would resist the temptation of a 'bargain' - not a sure thing.
Who can really value what the resource is worth, given volatile commodity prices, grade and metallurgy, market precariousness, geopolitical risk, probability of dilution, capital cost to develop? I haven't even tried - it's a punt. Fortunately I don't need to sell more for a while.

Held

Finger on the trigger finicky.

 

[finicky]

@Sean K Yes I'm deflated about anything speculative these days. Gee I like cash. Sometimes I feel like selling out, pay another massive CGT bill (for my means) and dive into my cash bin swimming pool each day like Scrooge McDuck, dispelling all notions of of mortality and a world depression. Chart wise Garpal fashioned my feathers into a duster with CDA.
Nonetheless I envision a test of the $5 resistance level in the shortish term, but anything else? Maybe a W low on the weekly with the June gap filled and some recent momentum divergence. Seems to need a powerful news catalyst - I wish some cashed up major would come in with a bid, I still have 60,000 left (tries to preempt impression of a loser streak). Maybe it'll just fill out a rectangle after $5 and do a continuation down.

Held

Weekly

 

[Sean K]

@Sean K Yes I'm deflated about anything speculative these days. Gee I like cash. Sometimes I feel like selling out, pay another massive CGT bill (for my means) and dive into my cash bin swimming pool each day like Scrooge McDuck, dispelling all notions of of mortality and a world depression. Chart wise Garpal fashioned my feathers into a duster with CDA.
Nonetheless I envision a test of the $5 resistance level in the shortish term, but anything else? Maybe a W low on the weekly with the June gap filled and some recent momentum divergence. Seems to need a powerful news catalyst - I wish some cashed up major would come in with a bid, I still have 60,000 left (tries to preempt impression of a loser streak). Maybe it'll just fill out a rectangle after $5 and do a continuation down.

Held

Weekly
View attachment 148973

Been a little bit of selling off the peaks of the last two trading sessions, but it's poked its head through that downtrend and is starting to make higher lows and highs.

 

[finicky]

A testing time, a close above ~5.25 would seem significant.
The 3.50 level was probed 3 times and met enough buying support. Nice rounding shape off this September test of support. But general market always a caution too.

Held

Daily