CHN - Chalice Mining

[finicky]

Been a while. CHN has been taking a pounding of late. To a nervous bear it feels like its falling apart relentlessly, day after day. At least the volume trend is declining during this correction - if that's all it is.
I would have thought drilling access granted to the highly anticipated Hartog prospect in State forest would have kept people in out of fomo, with others buying to get aboard, toot toot and all that. Chalice is designated as my main cash cow - cash cow in the sense of gradually liquidating half for capital gain that is, its not income producing.

Weekly

 

[Sean K]

Been a while. CHN has been taking a pounding of late. To a nervous bear it feels like its falling apart relentlessly, day after day. At least the volume trend is declining during this correction - if that's all it is.
I would have thought drilling access granted to the highly anticipated Hartog prospect in State forest would have kept people in out of fomo, with others buying to get aboard, toot toot and all that. Chalice is designated as my main cash cow - cash cow in the sense of gradually liquidating half for capital gain that is, its not income producing.

Weekly
View attachment 136500

I've got this on my short list for when the dust settles. This might be the start of the opportunity a few of us have been waiting for over the past 12 months...

 

[finicky]

You are quite the chameleon in those avatar pics @Sean K, I don't know whether to think of you as a cute hippy feral, an sas combat veteran or a National Party candidate. As you can see from mine I'm rock solid in my identity.

 

[Hillman787]

You are quite the chameleon in those avatar pics @Sean K, I don't know whether to think of you as a cute hippy feral, an sas combat veteran or a National Party candidate. As you can see from mine I'm rock solid in my identity.

Just get ready guys for a massive spike in the sp when the drilling results start rocking in shortly… I told you this would hit $10… and it did. It is starting to gain a lot of momentum again. Keep the faith.
Hillman787

 

[peter2]

One of a group of three (CHN, DEG, RTR) with similar circumstances and potential for further price gains.

All three are sitting on potential tier 1 resource assets that require a lot more exploring and delineation. It's going to take years to fully understand the extent and value of their resource. Another year to plan a cost efficient mining operation and years more to construct a production facility if that's their intent. It's highly likely that one or more will sell their resource before production.

These are not the sort of stocks I want to buy at higher prices. I prefer to buy the dips and profit from future news reports.

CHN: Price has fallen to the 50-62% retracement zone of the prior impulsive move up. IMO about $7 is the right price to buy for the next price move to $10. If I buy them now I will have to be patient, price may go lower before further news on the extent of the resource is reported.

 

[finicky]

With so much imminent, the persistent selling pressure is mystifying to me and this is not a partisan comment I believe. This is a time to be out or underweight in CHN?
Would I personally buy at this price - no, but I'm surprised that big entities are not stepping up. Even more that selling is outweighing buying.

The looming Hartog prospect is a very big deal and Chalice has been drilling there since January. The boundary between Hartog and Gonneville is geologically arbitrary and meaningless. They have been getting mineralised intersects right up to the boundary, 170 metres away from the halo of Hartog's electro-mag and gravitational bullseye anomaly (see image). There's a reasonable chance that these physical intersects are the southern part of a large system that is reflected in the Hartog geophysical anomaly. The Ni-Cu geochemical anomalies of Hartog also resemble those that led to the discovery of Gonneville.

Also there are assay results awaited from first pass aircore drilling at the Barrabarra prospect which is still part of the proposed West Yilgarn Craton 'province' but 300km to the north of Julimar.
Assays are awaited from the first aircore drilling at the Torres target at northernmost Julimar.
Soon - this Qtr - they will be drilling at Baudin and Janz prospects in the northern Julimar zone.
Soil sampling is underway at the Southwest prospect on the far south of the West Yilgarn edge (jv with VMS if I remember right)

 

[peter2]

More panic selling in CHN today. I'm becoming more interested with every down day. Price is now where it was before the Julimar Tier-1 Maiden Mineral Resource news (9/11/21).

 

[Sean K]

I can smell something. In the great words of Jared Vennett "I smell money (ie, opportunity)".

 

[finicky]

Lower volume than I'd like but might have been ? bouncy bouncy day today.
I wrote a little tract on it but then I read the St Crispin's speech for to pinch a quote and became ashamed.

Daily

 

[Sean K]

Lower volume than I'd like but might have been ? bouncy bouncy day today.
I wrote a little tract on it but then I read the St Crispin's speech for to pinch a quote and became ashamed.

Daily
View attachment 138003

Should be some support around this level but I think some TA is being hijacked by geopolitics and Fed Reserve opines.

General market sentiment is still in control it seems, but this is going to be a globally significant resource. It's just a matter of your investment horizon IMO. If you're worried about a quick war, new strain of covid, interest rate rises in the short term then you might be able to get it cheaper. But if you have a 10-15 year horizon, this is looking very tasty.

 

[bk1]

Spot on @peter2 ,

CHN found enthusiastic buyers this morning at $6.65 and sailed up through $7 by the end of the day on almost average volume.

 

[finicky]

Ok,, responding to the clamour of requests .. the longer version.

Poor volume, maybe another day down but with the pluck for which I'm renowned .. on internet forums .. I'm going for it ...
? Bouncy bouncy

Few will accept the abstruseness of my t/a analysis but nonetheless here's my take:

• Gap filled.
• Bullish engulfing candle today, albeit on poor volume.
• Mild positive divergence of momentum
• Price yesterday touched on my choice of best fit downtrend line.
• Downtrend line interpreted as lower rail of best fit descending channel.
  Channel forgives false breakout end of Dec and springback late Jan.

 

[finicky]

The weekly chart throws up a few points of interest to someone disappearing up his own r'sole.
This week's candle is a hammer candle that formed just under the 200dma approximation - i.e the 40wma.
Same as back at the prior significant low in October!
Volume for the week was remarkably low. Not sure how to interpret that. Maybe it is a positive in a downtrend? I'll try this - the early selling volume dried up for the rest of the week allowing tepid buying pressure to call the shots.

Weekly

 

[peter2]

Don't belittle the candlesticks or your belief in their interpretation. The hammer cstk does indicate that a bullish reversal has started. The volume is important and we want to see above average volume to indicate determined demand. Unfortunately, we can belittle the Commsec chart data.

My charts and even the TradingView chart shows that this week's volume was indeed above average. This bullish reversal needs to have immediate follow through next week and close above the hammer high to confirm the reversal.

I looked at the Commsec chart and had some difficulty getting it to show the weekly data. On one occasion it did show that the volume was higher than the prior two weeks however on most occasions it showed the lower value.

 

[finicky]

@peter2 you are right about commsec volume data, something for me to be alert to in future. I use Commsec occasionally because bigcharts is more delayed and also is sometimes down. I was eager to see what kind of candle formed for this week, hence resorted to Commsec. Commsec is still showing minute volume for the week wheras bigcharts is showing the highest volume in 4 weeks for this week.

 

[Sean K]

Interesting they're reporting this in Ni Eq % and not Pd Eq, which is what this was all about. I thought. Maybe we mug punters don't understand the significance of the Pd and Pt enough.

Are they going to go UG for these hits I wonder? Maybe after the open pit is done, but that's a long long way away. I think anything around 1% NiEq is worth hunting down.

Interesting comment about restrictions on drilling to established tracks at Hartog, must be frustrating and very restrictive for actually getting to where they think the resource extends to.

 

[finicky]

Pretty uninspiring update, the market isn't waiting on extensional mineralised intersects outside the currently conceived Gonneville pit shell, that's just expected. Intersects are deeper - down plunge and dip.
They are waiting on assays from Hartog drilling. Its not news that they have not yet been able to drill the most preferred targets there, only what is accessible from existing tracks.
Aircore drilling at Jansz and Torres targets have confirmed anomalous Ni-Cu-Co-PGEs in an ultramafic intrusion. MLEM and deeper drilling is planned.
They've newly found a Gonneville lookalike Airborne EM anomaly they're calling 'Flinders' 25k to the north-east of Gonneville.

The chart looks likely to retreat here as today marked a bearish engulfing candle near the upper rail of my interpreted descending channel. Touching the lower rail if that happens would bring the price down to ~6.40 or a bit lower. Holders will be hoping however that the last swing low at ~6.60 will hold and mark a bottom.

 

[finicky]

Looks like a bit of a battle going on around the 7.75 level - at the current upper edge of my notional downtrend channel. Could this be a crude pennant forming? I was expecting a retracement to happen before now. Still favour the scenario of the low made in Feb holding solid. But maybe price will even surprise by breaking upwards from here. Any other ideas?

Daily

 

[finicky]

Two other palladium wannabes are well up today. I came across them on the w/e from a stockhead article. Not going to chase but will follow with interest:
Podium Minerals (POD) up 20%
Impact Minerals (IPT) up 15%

 

[finicky]

Volume is frustratingly low but this advance today is looking as promising as you could get for signalling a breakout of downtrend. Any intraday retreat needs to hold above 7.75 to keep the surge interesting imo, given my admittedly fairly arbitrary downtrend resistance line. Beautiful development so far. Is anyone here holding?

Daily