Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

China's Evergrande Group crisis

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aus_trader said:
I think NZ might become the leader when it comes to heading the fiscal world in the right direction.

Wouldn't be at all surprised if other countries follow suit. Just too much easy-money borrowed near 0% rates fueling a lot of mal-investments that probably needs cleansing before the next bull market.
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slowly seeping into Europe too

The National Bank of Poland raised the reference rate to 0.5% from 0.1%. Wednesday's decision came as a surprise. Many experts had expected that interest rates wouldn't go up until next year because many of the reasons for the rising inflation are related to temporary shocks beyond the control of the central bank
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am preferring India and Mexico , but both are difficult to get exposure to ( and in depth research is hard as well )

but remember both are still higher risk , so you need higher rewards to go with the risk , but keep an eye of Brazil maybe recent events might result in opportunities
 
one might argue that with the pressure placed on Modi is immense as well in a nation of competing needs

how would India do without Modi balancing it all out ( international and national pressures )

BUT there is plenty of room for improvement ( in both India and Brazil ) and thus opportunity if you can seize the correct options ( it might be pipelines , tech fab companies , or just farm machinery manufacture )
 
aus_trader said:
Any Mexican / Brazilian ETF's or stocks in our local market ?

Local asx listed ETF (code: IIND) will give some Indian exposure.
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for India exposure i hold ASIA ( 'free-carried' ) and EAI neither India specific but the best i could find at the time ( ASIA bought at the end of 2018 ) ( EAI bought October 2018 and topped up in March 2020 )

IIND and NDIA are on the watch list IF we have a big global dip ( or a ' China crisis ' )

Brazil and Mexico no i haven't spotted anything specific enough yet

i have held IEM in the past but lost patience with it selling in 2014 ( it has risen more than $20 since i exited )
 
The Reserve Bank has concerns about the potential impact of Evergrandes collapse on the Chinese economy.
I wonder how much of the demand for the scores of high rise apartments Australia's is going to be affected. :cautious:

www.abc.net.au

An Evergrande collapse is 'likely' without government support, but a bailout has its own problems for China, RBA warns

There are fresh questions about the health of the Chinese property sector and what that means for countries — like Australia — that are heavily dependent on robust Chinese economic growth, writes David Taylor.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
 
India & china don't like each other. Whatever gets KO'd in china would likely be quite good for india.

It's the flow on effects (contagion) to be worried about. China effecting a country that india DOES need/want for example, that kind of thing.
 
over9k said:
India & china don't like each other. Whatever gets KO'd in china would likely be quite good for india.

It's the flow on effects (contagion) to be worried about. China effecting a country that india DOES need/want for example, that kind of thing.
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I can't really provide any historical backing unfortunately.

India's top 50 (Nifty50) index for example only goes back to 2009. It would have been very enlightening to see how it would have behaved in the Asian financial crisis in the 1997 period...
 
aus_trader said:
Interesting @qldfrog...

Do you think the Eastern worries will hit other emerging markets including India ?
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An uninformed view:
India is still very poor, does not have the power China has on the west.
If china and the west sneeze, india will pay dearly.i also expect it to be smashed on the next crash..just a matter of time.not worth the rest.back in cash pm..and after a moderate loss.
I will keep pm, yuan and russia exposure the rest will have very tight SL
 
An awful lot has changed in both countries since then though. Both are different countries compared to a generation ago.
 
Smurf1976 said:
I know very little of the detail there but "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" comes to mind.

Would the issues with China not prompt the West to do things to the advantage of India going forward?
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I see your point but comparing china to india is comparing New York to Mali...
China is only a developing nation due to artificial change rate and world bodies manipulation
Exceptfor a few polluting and dangerous industries (chemical industry in my mind) , and export of workers (aka IT), India really lag in my opinion against China..so for what really matters we have no choice and can not use India yet
And India has no real interest to challenge China..I know the border incidents..but not much to win, and a lot to lose
 

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