Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

China's Evergrande Group crisis

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qldfrog said:
I see your point but comparing china to india is comparing New York to Mali...
China is only a developing nation due to artificial change rate and world bodies manipulation
Exceptfor a few polluting and dangerous industries (chemical industry in my mind) , and export of workers (aka IT), India really lag in my opinion against China..so for what really matters we have no choice and can not use India yet
And India has no real interest to challenge China..I know the border incidents..but not much to win, and a lot to lose
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but honestly I have no real clue as to what will unfold..India could side with China and have a win.
Siding with the west does not help them against Pakistan and Bangladesh whereas China has no issue squashing any muslim rising and is a natural ally
 
over9k said:
An awful lot has changed in both countries since then though. Both are different countries compared to a generation ago.
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True. I just wanted to get an idea whether there is more of a Asian crisis contagion spilling over to India from a past perspective.

For our local markets (All Ords: xao) for example it was easy to look up the past and compared to GFC or Covid, Asian crisis hardly made a blip on the chart:

1634046221080.png
 
qldfrog said:
I see your point but comparing china to india is comparing New York to Mali...
China is only a developing nation due to artificial change rate and world bodies manipulation
Exceptfor a few polluting and dangerous industries (chemical industry in my mind) , and export of workers (aka IT), India really lag in my opinion against China..so for what really matters we have no choice and can not use India yet
Click to expand...
Having never been to either country I'm not overly well educated on the subject but is there anything physically or culturally that's a major barrier to India developing further over the coming years?

Anything that actually stops them apart from getting sufficient investment and so on?

Being a bit trivial here but what I do know is that some stuff I bought online from India recently arrived last week but something bought from China on the same day hasn't arrived yet. :2twocents
 
aus_trader said:
True. I just wanted to get an idea whether there is more of a Asian crisis contagion spilling over to India from a past perspective.

For our local markets (All Ords: xao) for example it was easy to look up the past and compared to GFC or Covid, Asian crisis hardly made a blip on the chart:

View attachment 131443
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Yeah but again, both economies are WILDLY different beasts compared to 30 or 20 or even 10 years ago. What might have wiped it off the face of the earth in 2000 may barely even cause a ripple in 2021.


For what it's worth, ignoring india's massive geographical advantages alone, here's why I'm 100% bull on India (I hold INDL) and 100% bear on China:

share-india-china-pop.jpg

Once you add India's massive geographical advantage to this you realise that China doesn't stand a chance.
 
Smurf1976 said:
Having never been to either country I'm not overly well educated on the subject but is there anything physically or culturally that's a major barrier to India developing further over the coming years?

Anything that actually stops them apart from getting sufficient investment and so on?

Being a bit trivial here but what I do know is that some stuff I bought online from India recently arrived last week but something bought from China on the same day hasn't arrived yet. :2twocents
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I've got a couple of Indian mates:

Caste system. The cream doesn't rise to the top in India like it really should. But China's cronyist, so relatively speaking, again, India wins by miles.
 
over9k said:
It's all about energy ;)
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You're preaching to the converted there with that one. :xyxthumbs

Worth noting in that context that China, India, the EU, UK and much of South America all have energy supply problems at the moment and there are others at risk of joining that list too. Engineering technical stuff aside, the economic and political consequences of it are potentially very significant. :2twocents
 
Smurf1976 said:
Having never been to either country I'm not overly well educated on the subject but is there anything physically or culturally that's a major barrier to India developing further over the coming years?

Anything that actually stops them apart from getting sufficient investment and so on?

Being a bit trivial here but what I do know is that some stuff I bought online from India recently arrived last week but something bought from China on the same day hasn't arrived yet. :2twocents
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Well going back to basics:
Litterary and schoolingScreenshot_20211012_235647_com.android.chrome.jpgScreenshot_20211012_235647_com.android.chrome.jpg
Then cast system, religions and health.
That should be enough to ensure you will not that easily catch up with China
And few places on earth have more money focus than China..which is good...well for business....
 
Smurf1976 said:
You're preaching to the converted there with that one. :xyxthumbs:xyxthumbs
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Hah. Yeah. I think you & I are pretty much entirely on the same page with this one ;)


I keep saying it but Australia has so, so, SO much more leverage on the world stage than people realise. If you need this country's rocks/dirt/minerals in any form (Iron ore, coal, uranium etc) then AU really has you by the balls.

Australia is the entire world's quarry. Last I checked/IIRC, 55% of the entire planet's supply of iron ore came from this country, just as an example.
 
Some more rats appearing:

edition.cnn.com

Evergrande and these Chinese real estate developers are already in trouble

China's real estate crisis isn't showing any sign of letting up.
edition.cnn.com edition.cnn.com

Luxury apartment developer Fantasia Holdings is teetering on the brink.
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Beijing-based developer Modern Land is also struggling to pay up on time
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Homebuilder Sinic Holdings is the latest to join the ranks of struggling developers
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So along with not so Evergrande that's 4 rats making their appearance.

I wonder where the others are? There'll be more, they live in big groups normally not just a few.

Meanwhile the one rat, well mouse, that I actually want hasn't yet made an appearance. That being the remote controlled one I've ordered for the cat - yep, I've bought a remote controlled mouse. Furry mouse that is, not a computer mouse, for the cat to chase. Remote controlled and it's from China, presently somewhere in transit.... :2twocents
 
over9k said:
I keep saying it but Australia has so, so, SO much more leverage on the world stage than people realise. If you need this country's rocks/dirt/minerals in any form (Iron ore, coal, uranium etc) then AU really has you by the balls.
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In the context of uranium, South Australia alone has more than any other country and known deposits exist in NT, Qld, NSW and WA too bringing the Australian total to about 30% of world reserves.
 
Smurf1976 said:
Meanwhile the one rat, well mouse, that I actually want hasn't yet made an appearance. That being the remote controlled one I've ordered for the cat - yep, I've bought a remote controlled mouse. Furry mouse that is, not a computer mouse, for the cat to chase. Remote controlled and it's from China, presently somewhere in transit....
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It's probably on a sinking ship at the moment.. :D
 
over9k said:
Yeah but again, both economies are WILDLY different beasts compared to 30 or 20 or even 10 years ago. What might have wiped it off the face of the earth in 2000 may barely even cause a ripple in 2021.


For what it's worth, ignoring india's massive geographical advantages alone, here's why I'm 100% bull on India (I hold INDL) and 100% bear on China:

View attachment 131444

Once you add India's massive geographical advantage to this you realise that China doesn't stand a chance.
Click to expand...
Nice research @over9k , it really shows the high percentage of younger Indian population that could contribute to the economy.
 
over9k said:
Yeah but again, both economies are WILDLY different beasts compared to 30 or 20 or even 10 years ago. What might have wiped it off the face of the earth in 2000 may barely even cause a ripple in 2021.


For what it's worth, ignoring india's massive geographical advantages alone, here's why I'm 100% bull on India (I hold INDL) and 100% bear on China:

View attachment 131444

Once you add India's massive geographical advantage to this you realise that China doesn't stand a chance.
Click to expand...

This demographic chart tells a story that can't be ignored. It is inevitable that India is going to outpace China economically in the next 10 to 20 years as China runs short of a young labour force to power its economy. Watch Western companies slowly move their manufacturing facilities to India over the next decade.
 
greggles said:
This demographic chart tells a story that can't be ignored. It is inevitable that India is going to outpace China economically in the next 10 to 20 years as China runs short of a young labour force to power its economy. Watch Western companies slowly move their manufacturing facilities to India over the next decade.
Click to expand...
What about automation?
 
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