China's Evergrande Group crisis

[sptrawler]

I've also read in various sources that China is more likely to think of it's national interest and if there is a bailout it'll be more like the nationalisation of the company and assets (unbuilt or partly built apartments) that @over9k mentioned.

It's possible, but I fear only the local creditors and apartment depositors are likely beneficiaries:

• Local creditors (Chinese state owned banks for e.g.) will get all or some (could be a haircut) of their money back
• The Chinese citizens who are about to jump off the apartment towers fearing they've lost their life savings will be re-assured that their investment will be saved via their apartment built to completion.

However the overseas creditors may lose out in such a deal, so there could be some write-downs outside of China e.g. in Global funds etc. If it's Evergrande write-down only, the funds may be able to save their balance sheet. But what if there are more mice in the field as per @Smurf1976's comment ?

Now what is the Chinese Government going to do with all this stranded property?

China to move 100 million farmers to cities in urbanisation plan

According to a government plan published last year, China aims to raise the number of registered urban residents to around 45 per cent by 2020.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

 

[over9k]

 

[moXJO]

I'd be looking to the west to see what might go under. Got a feeling China might see a weakness somewhere.

 

[over9k]

Nahhhhh...


What tipped you off?

 

[qldfrog]

Now what is the Chinese Government going to do with all this stranded property?

China to move 100 million farmers to cities in urbanisation plan

According to a government plan published last year, China aims to raise the number of registered urban residents to around 45 per cent by 2020.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

3y ago, by night, most of the high rise residential buildings were lightless..not occupied.. and same for offices..huge overshot..before covid..so doubt it has been filled

 

[sptrawler]

3y ago, by night, most of the high rise residential buildings were lightless..not occupied.. and same for offices..huge overshot..before covid..so doubt it has been filled

So all of a sudden the companies that were supported to build them, have fallen over, surprise surprise, lucky the Gov will be there to help mop up.
That's the way to get social housing sorted.

 

[Smurf1976]

3y ago, by night, most of the high rise residential buildings were lightless..not occupied..

An opportunity wasted.

Some artwork of a sort could have been created by opening the blinds on selected windows and turning the lights on in that room. When viewed from a distance it would create an image of a sort.

Seriously, if they were empty 3 years ago and they've kept building in the meantime then how many are empty now? Must be a huge number.

Worth watching this and note the date - it's presumably even more now?

 

[qldfrog]

An opportunity wasted.

Some artwork of a sort could have been created by opening the blinds on selected windows and turning the lights on in that room. When viewed from a distance it would create an image of a sort.

Seriously, if they were empty 3 years ago and they've kept building in the meantime then how many are empty now? Must be a huge number.

Worth watching this and note the date - it's presumably even more now?

Most office buildings in shenzhen had inbuilt leds on the windows and were giant screens, luckily not too much residential ones .as you still want to sleep

 

[qldfrog]

Most office buildings in shenzhen had inbuilt leds on the windows and were giant screens, luckily not too much residential ones .as you still want to sleep

I wanted to add pictures/video but not on phone anymore

 

[divs4ever]

selling off the plan is a very common model for the construction industry ( in the developed world ) and the risks now being discovered ( by some ) have always existed with this business model

the survival rate across the industry will depend on each companies debt obligations and their ability to service them

while everyone is watching China , don't forget Australia , US , US , and EU adore this business model as well and the same banks will be lending to all of them .. and don't forget also those CDS bets behind the scenes as well

 

[qldfrog]

I wanted to add pictures/video but not on phone anymore

a bit of entertainment: please enjoy


or View attachment 1530321806032.mp4
Look at all the Australian and Chinese coal burnt for that;
At the very least, Evergrande via the UBS and other western groups will have created cute light shows...
These billions did not go in smoke but in lights

 

[Smurf1976]

At the very least, Evergrande via the UBS and other western groups will have created cute light shows...
These billions did not go in smoke but in lights

Nice video - only problem is I wasn't expecting sound, had the speakers turned up, and the sudden music scared the proverbial out of the cat....

 

[over9k]

It wouldn't be the first time someone around here had scared some pussy off.




(Ok I'll see myself out)

 

[over9k]

Jokes aside, even energy & banks are now deep into the red tonight. Everyone are in full on freak-out mode.

A good 2-3 weeks too late IMO, but they are.

 

[aus_trader]

Jokes aside, even energy & banks are now deep into the red tonight. Everyone are in full on freak-out mode.

A good 2-3 weeks too late IMO, but they are.

Are we talking US stocks or China stocks ?

 

[over9k]

Are we talking US stocks or China stocks ?

U.S. China already plummeted early today. You see my post about the hang seng tech index hitting a new record low?

 

[aus_trader]

U.S. China already plummeted early today. You see my post about the hang seng tech index hitting a new record low?

Yes I read that comment.

So looks like more red on the asx tomorrow...

I sold a couple of stocks in the speculative portfolio. At this rate there might be more casualties...

 

[moXJO]

Nahhhhh...


What tipped you off?

Hey I'm still trying to decipher if it US or China getting the upper hand.

On another note what are you thinking of buying come the crazed sell off?

 

[waterbottle]

RBNZ now raising interest rates.

Energy crisis + rampant speculation would be an excellent pretext for raising rates...

 

[aus_trader]

RBNZ now raising interest rates.

Energy crisis + rampant speculation would be an excellent pretext for raising rates...

I think NZ might become the leader when it comes to heading the fiscal world in the right direction.

Wouldn't be at all surprised if other countries follow suit. Just too much easy-money borrowed near 0% rates fueling a lot of mal-investments that probably needs cleansing before the next bull market.