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China's Economy

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The Chinese have hacked there way into finding the plans of the new ASIO building! LOL. To gut the building and start again would cost a fair whack of $$$, I'd imagine. Send the re-design bill to Jinping, since he probably gave the go ahead for this activity. :cautious:
 
CanOz said:
Oh dear.....:eek:



I didn't think so either, four years ago....then they ramped it up.

There is very little liquidity in the housing market in most places outside the major cities where lots of empty apartments, although sold, could never be re-sold. At some stage, people will start selling, there will be no buyers and the prices will really start to fall.

And yet the building continues, i can see a dozen cranes from my kitchen window.

This must be the biggest bubble in history.

CanOz
Click to expand...

Since you have more first hand experience than most here, do you think there is a possibility of a soft landing? Or will the government keep propping the market until it is unsustainable?
 
FlyingFox said:
Since you have more first hand experience than most here, do you think there is a possibility of a soft landing? Or will the government keep propping the market until it is unsustainable?
Click to expand...

I don't know, they have a few aces up thier sleeve yet but they need to get on with it. They could privatize the SOE's, that would rake in a ton of dough, 100s of billions. I don't think they could have much left in the tank for stimulus...other than rates, but there is too much liquidity here now...

Its all anecdotal though...I'm just an observer.:eek:

CanOz
 
notting said:
Australian Businesses and their leaders are referred to by the Chinese as enemies of the state!
The Chineses install military strategists at Australian business meetings!
Click to expand...

Please don't speak ill of the Chineses....
Apparently they are our financial saviours - our last hope for economic Nirvana.
And Money after all, is all that matters - apparently.

Let us prey...
 
I love it..... social engineering on a Grand Scale. Mao would be most pleased...and Chairperson JuLiar too...;)

China issues civilised behaviour guide for tourists
Click to expand...

http://www.news.com.au/travel/world...ide-for-tourists/story-e6frfqai-1226653400934

and this too....

Insane pictures of gridlock in China
Click to expand...

http://www.news.com.au/travel/world...ridlock-in-china/story-e6frfqai-1226653423650

Let's hope they grow their pop much bigger faster - we need$ their money$! :D
 
It's brow raising to consider that Wang Yang, one of China's four vice-premiers, said, "The quality and breeding of some tourists are not high yet," emplying that he himself and the communist dictators have breading and are quality people!! Well just have a read of how the well bread leadership treats it's loyal workers all over China -


Thirty-one Chinese were rescued from a brick works in Linfen in Shanxi run by the son of a Communist Party official. They worked for a year as slaves””with no salary and only bread and water for nourishment. Eight were so traumatized by the experience they couldn’t speak except to mutter their names. They carried uncooled brick and walked barefoot inside the kilns. Their bodies were covered with bruises, wounds and burns. One local newspaper reported, “The grime on their bodies was so thick it could scraped off with a knife.”

The kilns in Linfen were like prisons. Fierce dogs and thugs were used to deter people from trying to escape. In some cases workers were abducted and worked until a ransom was paid for their release. One newspaper reported the case of a boy who was abducted then ransomed. Instead of being transported home he was taken to another kiln and put back to work. According to media reports one child was beaten to death with a shovel and buried at night and another was beaten to death with a hammer for working too slow.
Click to expand...

No wonder Australia and other developed economies are finding it hard to compete with such dedicated slave force.

Oh and if you like the red colour of their money. That's what they want! Once your addicted to it that's when they start to manipulate and infiltrate your politics, news articles and so on. Till you suddnely find you have joined the their work force!
You will find it hard to find anything in the Murcoch press that tells the truth about China he has been in their pocket for decades! That's how they do it.
 
sydboy007 said:
My fear is what it will do the the 1 trick pony Australian economy when the Chinese crash shockwave hits our shores.
Click to expand...

Ross Garnaut has recently commented on just such an outcome in relation to a fall in demand for resources...

http://www.brw.com.au/p/business/recession_garnaut_sooner_rather_WQRcjOFyNBxSt627NaPUPK

The key excerpt from the article for me was this...

"The speech described how the end of the mining boom will cause a fall in real incomes and spending as the dollar tumbles. In turn, this will require widespread “restraint” from people, who will need to accept lower wages growth, and businesses, whose profit margins will need to be squeezed.

Without the painful adjustment, Australia risks a surge in inflation, higher interest rates and a brutal recession that damages living standards."

Given how weak other sectors of the economy are now a significant slowdown in China looms as a big threat to our economy. Probably just a question of when not if this will occur.
 
FxTrader said:
Ross Garnaut has recently commented on just such an outcome in relation to a fall in demand for resources...

http://www.brw.com.au/p/business/recession_garnaut_sooner_rather_WQRcjOFyNBxSt627NaPUPK

The key excerpt from the article for me was this...

"The speech described how the end of the mining boom will cause a fall in real incomes and spending as the dollar tumbles. In turn, this will require widespread “restraint” from people, who will need to accept lower wages growth, and businesses, whose profit margins will need to be squeezed.

Without the painful adjustment, Australia risks a surge in inflation, higher interest rates and a brutal recession that damages living standards."

Given how weak other sectors of the economy are now a significant slowdown in China looms as a big threat to our economy. Probably just a question of when not if this will occur.
Click to expand...

That is a very damning article ... However I suspect the usual reply from everyone will but we are different...
 
FxTrader said:
Ross Garnaut has recently commented on just such an outcome in relation to a fall in demand for resources...

http://www.brw.com.au/p/business/recession_garnaut_sooner_rather_WQRcjOFyNBxSt627NaPUPK

The key excerpt from the article for me was this...

"The speech described how the end of the mining boom will cause a fall in real incomes and spending as the dollar tumbles. In turn, this will require widespread “restraint” from people, who will need to accept lower wages growth, and businesses, whose profit margins will need to be squeezed.

Without the painful adjustment, Australia risks a surge in inflation, higher interest rates and a brutal recession that damages living standards."

Given how weak other sectors of the economy are now a significant slowdown in China looms as a big threat to our economy. Probably just a question of when not if this will occur.
Click to expand...

I agree I think it is inevitable and it will be brutal.

A whole generation hasn't ever experienced a recession but I remember well the recessions of the early 80s and early 90's and things were pretty bad.

The problem is compounded now by the level of personal debt out there. If things get ugly those people will be very vulnerable. A housing crisis is well on the cards if we have a recession with large unemployment especially with the mortgages many people are carrying.

I don't think we are going to reach that stage for a couple of years yet as there is still a large amount of capex going on in Australia but a sudden downturn in commodity prices could be telling.

Nothing stays up forever and Australia has had a golden run but sooner or later a recession is inevitable and absolutely necessary. Major adjustments will need to happen and cutbacks to govt handouts and subsidies will be on the chopping block.
 
Re: XAO Technical Analysis

If anyone understands this,

(CN) China 1-yr swap falls 36bps to 3.71% (lowest since June 14th)
- Source TradeTheNews.com
Click to expand...

Thats been the cause of the mess the last week.
 
Re: XAO Technical Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
If anyone understands this,



Thats been the cause of the mess the last week.
Click to expand...

Here's what I don't understand. If overnight cash went to 25% in a developed economy (as it did in China) we'd have a full blow banking crisis worse than 2008, but in China it just seemed to be business as usual. Is there something I'm missing here? It's like WWF, everything looks real but it is all stage managed.
 
Re: XAO Technical Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
If anyone understands this,



Thats been the cause of the mess the last week.
Click to expand...

Well what i'm having a hard time to understand is what difference it all makes. I mean its not like the Fed, where they control the rate at the discount window, or LIBOR (fraud aside) where they agree on a lending rate....

This is a state controlled bank that controls other state controlled banks...Its just weird.

If they really wanted to reign in lending why didn't they just raise rates??

CanOz

- - - Updated - - -

McLovin said:
It's like WWF, everything looks real but it is all stage managed.
Click to expand...

The WWF is staged:confused:

Great analogy though:xyxthumbs
 
Re: XAO Technical Analysis

CanOz said:
Well what i'm having a hard time to understand is what difference it all makes. I mean its not like the Fed, where they control the rate at the discount window, or LIBOR (fraud aside) where they agree on a lending rate....
Click to expand...

Actually it's exactly like LIBOR, in this case its SHIBOR. Eurodollars are the USD interbank instrument, I guess you would call these "euroyuan". There are also euroyen, euroswiss and euribor (EUR LIBOR) instruments.

Basically denoting X denominated deposits outside the local banking system of X country.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurodollar
 
Re: XAO Technical Analysis

sinner said:
Actually it's exactly like LIBOR, in this case its SHIBOR. Eurodollars are the USD interbank instrument, I guess you would call these "euroyuan". There are also euroyen, euroswiss and euribor (EUR LIBOR) instruments.

Basically denoting X denominated deposits outside the local banking system of X country.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurodollar
Click to expand...

Yes, i understand that its meant to "look" like an overnight rate, smell like an overnight rate, but it doesn't act like an overnight rate...
 
Re: XAO Technical Analysis

McLovin said:
Here's what I don't understand. If overnight cash went to 25% in a developed economy (as it did in China) we'd have a full blow banking crisis worse than 2008, but in China it just seemed to be business as usual. Is there something I'm missing here? It's like WWF, everything looks real but it is all stage managed.
Click to expand...

In China, how much interbank lending really goes on? I assume very little compared to other countries, since most banks are SOE, they pony up to the PBoC window for credit, not other SOE banks.

- - - Updated - - -

CanOz said:
Yes, i understand that its meant to "look" like an overnight rate, smell like an overnight rate, but it doesn't act like an overnight rate...
Click to expand...

Well you could absolutely argue the same thing about LIBOR (and all related instruments like TED spread) as of 2008, when the Fed opened up their own window massively and banks reduced their interbank activity proportionally. Even in Aug 2011 when all other euribor and euroswiss curves were inverting, eurodollar curve was sitting pretty at least 1 year out!
 
Re: XAO Technical Analysis

Fair enough, but what i have a hard time understanding is how the whole thing can just fix itself almost OVERNIGHT...

As McLovin said, an increase of 25% in LIBOR would be a catastrophic event sure to freeze up credit for weeks wouldn't it?
 

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