China on our doorstep

[JohnDe]

They are only dependent on our high level chip making technology and as I said in the early stages of this debate, the chip manufacturing on Taiwan will be the underlying driver for China to reclaim Taiwan. It is much easier to take over existing than design and develop your own technology.


When the U.S entered the Second world war, the industrial hubs of America were huge, massive steel making from the railroad development, the steel manufacturing for all the car manufacturing and sky scraper building. Those days, as with the U.K and Australia are long gone, 90% of the pig iron blast furnaces and steel furnaces and rolling mills are gone, to rebuild them can't be done in 12 months, it takes years, the supporting infrastructure has been removed, rail supply lines, gas lines, raw material unloading plant etc. I know I worked in a blast furnace in the 1970's, it has been gone for 40 years and something completely different is in its place.
the U.S currently has about 40 remaining blast furnaces, China has 260 fully operational, from memory I think Australia has two still operational.
We would struggle to arm our military with enough small arms and ammunition to last any length of time, let alone arm civilians, we don't even have gun and ammo shops anymore so where would we get it from?



Let's not pretend.
The West has made a lot of money out of offshoring their manufacturing to third world countries for cheap labour, they increased their lifestyle from poverty, ours went up a huge amount on importing cheap goods rather than producing them in our own country and paying high wages. It wasn't driven by good nature, it was driven by making stuff we wanted cheaper it's just good business.
That doesn't mean it is good practice, it has left the West with a massive exposure to critical supplies, covid highlighted it and now China is exploiting it, that's life you know for every action there is a reaction how that manifests is the only difference.


The West has to form strong alliances, because we have gutted out our manufacturing capability, so we are going to have to work together to piece together enough capacity to hopefully make some sort of deterrent.
The saving grace at the moment is, China doesn't know what high tech weapons the U.S has, so it is still not confident and that is why Xi is demanding China focus on improving its home grown high tech capability.
If China was confident, Taiwan would already be done and dusted, meanwhile as I said a couple of years ago Taiwan chip manufacturing will be getting dismantled. Just my opinion.

The next world war won’t be anything like the last.

If you believe that future wars will be conducted like those in the past, in which the sophistication and numbers of our ships, planes and tanks are the essential metric of dominance, then the United States remains in an enviable position.

But the world is evolving quickly and dangerously. And in war, what is past is rarely prologue.

The recent SolarWinds attack sponsored by Russia hacked our government and more than 400 of the United States’ Fortune 500 companies. It’s a penetration so vast that we’re still struggling to comprehend its scope.

Catching up means investing in offensive cyber capabilities, smaller platforms, drone and stealth technology and artificial intelligence.

 

[Sean K]

A blockade would have to be the most effective method, it then sets the scene calling the US's bluff which will have to generate enough momentum politically to launch an attack, not sure if that's possible given the divisive politics at play in the US currently.

The mess in communications called social media allows foreign actors to run plenty of false narrative's.

Cannot see that unfolding given the resources required to breakup a blockade and hold the island long term.

Still political will would be bigger issue I would think rather than military capability.

It would probably be the start and the West would respond with their own blockade and sanctions against China as per Russia play book. Once it turns kinetic, there's so much to lose for both sides as it gets played out, it's almost unthinkable that China actually attempts it. It would be a pretty big gamble to try and call the US's bluff. They are probably handing over their hegemony by not responding. Maybe that's enough political will to act. Might depend on who's at the wheel at the time.

 

[sptrawler]

The next world war won’t be anything like the last.

If you believe that future wars will be conducted like those in the past, in which the sophistication and numbers of our ships, planes and tanks are the essential metric of dominance, then the United States remains in an enviable position.

But the world is evolving quickly and dangerously. And in war, what is past is rarely prologue.

The recent SolarWinds attack sponsored by Russia hacked our government and more than 400 of the United States’ Fortune 500 companies. It’s a penetration so vast that we’re still struggling to comprehend its scope.

Catching up means investing in offensive cyber capabilities, smaller platforms, drone and stealth technology and artificial intelligence.

I'm not arguing, just putting forward my thoughts.
Australia is toast if China decided to send a major naval force, unless the U.K and U.S stepped in to intercept.
It's simple really, we have nothing to stand between a major invasion force and our Northern coast, the elite troops are still in court over killing people in the last war we were in. I bet there isn't a lot willing to put their hands up, to get involved in the next one.

It was only a year ago we were lambasting the Government for being war mongers and dick heads for cancelling the diesel subs, now everyone is a worry wart and rejoicing that we're getting nuclear subs.
Life's too short to worry about everything and get worked up over what the media is playing as a headline today.

 

[Sean K]

The next world war won’t be anything like the last.

If you believe that future wars will be conducted like those in the past, in which the sophistication and numbers of our ships, planes and tanks are the essential metric of dominance, then the United States remains in an enviable position.

But the world is evolving quickly and dangerously. And in war, what is past is rarely prologue.

The recent SolarWinds attack sponsored by Russia hacked our government and more than 400 of the United States’ Fortune 500 companies. It’s a penetration so vast that we’re still struggling to comprehend its scope.

Catching up means investing in offensive cyber capabilities, smaller platforms, drone and stealth technology and artificial intelligence.

First phases of a significant conflict will be massive cyber attacks. It's one of the reason's we've doubled the funding to ASD.

 

[sptrawler]

It would probably be the start and the West would respond with their own blockade and sanctions against China as per Russia play book. Once it turns kinetic, there's so much to lose for both sides as it gets played out, it's almost unthinkable that China actually attempts it. It would be a pretty big gamble to try and call the US's bluff. They are probably handing over their hegemony by not responding. Maybe that's enough political will to act. Might depend on who's at the wheel at the time.

If we blockade China, where do we get our fridges from, our T.V's our ovens, our hotplates, our hot water systems, our steel, our tools, our electronic equipment, our electric motors, our pumps, our solar panels.
I mean get serious, go to Bunnings and check where everything on the shelf is made, then leave there and go to Harvey Norman, JB Hi Fi, the local plumbing store, woolies, any clothing store and check on the labels where it is all made.

I can see it now, everyone sitting in a mud hut telling each other how we are showing China, with the blockade. I just can't see that being sustainable in reality.

 

[JohnDe]

I'm not arguing, just putting forward my thoughts.
Australia is toast if China decided to send a major naval force, unless the U.K and U.S stepped in to intercept.
It's simple really, we have nothing to stand between a major invasion force and our Northern coast, the elite troops are still in court over killing people in the last war we were in. I bet there isn't a lot willing to put their hands up, to get involved in the next one.

It was only a year ago we were lambasting the Government for being war mongers and dick heads for cancelling the diesel subs, now everyone is a worry wart and rejoicing that we're getting nuclear subs.
Life's too short to worry about everything and get worked up over what the media is playing as a headline today.

War is never simple, just ask Vladimir Putin.

 

[sptrawler]

War is never simple, just ask Vladimir Putin.

Putin has the same problem the U.S had in Vietnam and Afghanistan, the Russian people haven't got their heart in it.

 

[JohnDe]

Putin has the same problem the U.S had in Vietnam and Afghanistan, the Russian people haven't got their heart in it.

That is a simplistic take on the situation, and not comparable to the 'police' actions taken by the USA.

 

[mullokintyre]

The submarines have caused China to now warn OZ that we officially on its defence radar.
From The Evil Murdoch press

Chinese experts have warned that Australia has “officially put itself on Beijing’s defence radar” with its $368bn plan to build nuclear powered submarines with the United States and United Kingdom.
Government-linked academics and military officials said Australia’s mammoth defence acquisition was putting the country on the “frontline” of America and China’s strategic competition, which they said would worsen Canberra’s already strained relationship with its biggest trading partner.

The warnings come as China’s Foreign Ministry continues an already 18-month long campaign against the three-country submarine deal, arguing the AUKUS deal will undermine the international non-proliferation system and ramp up an arms race in the Indo-Pacific.
Chen Hong, president of the Chinese Association of Australian Studies and director of the Australian Studies Centre at East China Normal University, said the AUKUS arrangement was a “time bomb for peace and stability in the region”.

“Continuing promoting the alliance means that Australia will officially put itself on Beijing’s defence radar,” Professor Chen told China’s nationalistic tabloid the Global Times.

Chinese military expert Song Zhongping told the party-state masthead that Australia had become a “de facto offshoot of the US nuclear submarine fleet”, which elevated risks for Australian forces.

i guess we should be quaking in our boots.
Mick

 

[JohnDe]

If we blockade China, where do we get our fridges from, our T.V's our ovens, our hotplates, our hot water systems, our steel, our tools, our electronic equipment, our electric motors, our pumps, our solar panels.
I mean get serious, go to Bunnings and check where everything on the shelf is made, then leave there and go to Harvey Norman, JB Hi Fi, the local plumbing store, woolies, any clothing store and check on the labels where it is all made.

I can see it now, everyone sitting in a mud hut telling each other how we are showing China, with the blockade. I just can't see that being sustainable in reality.

I'm trying to not offend you, but your above post is simplistic.

Two weeks ago, I purchased a new fridge for my coastal holiday apartment, the fridge is a Mitsubishi and is made in Japan.

Human ingenuity is far greater than you give it credit for. We would find a way, we would make do, we would continue on as we have through every major epidemic, war, and natural disaster.

 

[finicky]

This guy on Tucker reckons they've been preparing for war for decades, they're on a war footing while the effete U.S is confused and focused on crap like gender identity. U.S has an ossified and corrupt leadership, I mean, ffs, Kamahla and compromised and demented Joe - they're really on the ball. Whereas China is flexing on the ropes and glaring across the ring. That's me not the guest opining in the last two sentences. Back to the guest - he alludes to a gruesome hypersonic missile arsenal which will strike massively like a bolt from the blue and take out satellites and GPS and stuff and render us headless. My father warned me about China decades ago and he was no war monger - an ex Jap POW who wasn't worried about the Japanese for posterity, he was worried by China. Everything he said was profound I realised with advancing years. And I brushed his concerns aside with all the non knowledge of a leftie uni dropout - a 'useful idiot'.

 

[Sean K]

If we blockade China, where do we get our fridges from, our T.V's our ovens, our hotplates, our hot water systems, our steel, our tools, our electronic equipment, our electric motors, our pumps, our solar panels.
I mean get serious, go to Bunnings and check where everything on the shelf is made, then leave there and go to Harvey Norman, JB Hi Fi, the local plumbing store, woolies, any clothing store and check on the labels where it is all made.

I can see it now, everyone sitting in a mud hut telling each other how we are showing China, with the blockade. I just can't see that being sustainable in reality.

If we're talking major conflict here, we only have to stop oil, gas and coal delivery. If we were really going to go all in and take significant pain if it was that serious - iron ore as well. Yes, we'd go broke, but it's a card to be played if it was that serious. China probably has other avenues for these resources, but the US controls the Pacific and India/EU controls the Indian Ocean. No, not sustainable, but, we have the leavers.

 

[sptrawler]

I'm trying to not offend you, but your above post is simplistic.

Two weeks ago, I purchased a new fridge for my coastal holiday apartment, the fridge is a Mitsubishi and is made in Japan.

Human ingenuity is far greater than you give it credit for. We would find a way, we would make do, we would continue on as we have through every major epidemic, war, and natural disaster.

I don't disagree with that, I've lived long enough to know people adapt, but to think that blockading China will have any great effect is about as simplistic as it gets.
Lets not forget most of china was in abject poverty 30 years ago, how long ago did people in Sydney/Melbourne have to queue up for the basics of life, or live without electricity? Thinking that China wouldn't be able to tough it out better than us, would be a mistake IMO. ?
Oh and by the way I don't take offence, it is only an exchange of ideas and opinions, neither of us knows what will happen.

 

[sptrawler]

If we're talking major conflict here, we only have to stop oil, gas and coal delivery. If we were really going to go all in and take significant pain if it was that serious - iron ore as well. Yes, we'd go broke, but it's a card to be played if it was that serious. China probably has other avenues for these resources, but the US controls the Pacific and India/EU controls the Indian Ocean. No, not sustainable, but, we have the leavers.

Where would we get our fuel from? last I heard we only have about a months supply.
Also if China isn't supplying the World with all their electrical Junk eg fridges, t.v's etc, they probably could cut back their coal, gas and iron ore requirements hugely.
Also Russia has massive reserves of coal and gas, if conflict does break out one would assume China and Russia would be allies, Russia supplies the coal/gas China makes the tanks.

 

[JohnDe]

This guy on Tucker reckons they've been preparing for war for decades, they're on a war footing while the effete U.S is confused and focused on crap like gender identity. U.S has an ossified and corrupt leadership, I mean, ffs, Kamahla and compromised and demented Joe - they're really on the ball. Whereas China is flexing on the ropes and glaring across the ring. That's me not the guest opining in the last two sentences. Back to the guest - he alludes to a gruesome hypersonic missile arsenal which will strike massively like a bolt from the blue and take out satellites and GPS and stuff and render us headless. My father warned me about China decades ago and he was no war monger - an ex Jap POW who wasn't worried about the Japanese for posterity, he was worried by China. Everything he said was profound I realised with advancing years. And I brushed his concerns aside with all the non knowledge of a leftie uni dropout - a 'useful idiot'.

The Sino-American competition is in danger of becoming a shallow, petulant parody of a cold war. Too many American politicians treat every interaction with China as a threat and as a chance to demonstrate patriotic resolve. Their bluster is often unfair, and also makes it harder to focus on challenges that matter. In Beijing, Communist Party leaders invoke principles that helped to keep an uneasy peace in the darkest days of the 1960s or 1970s, but for superficial, self-serving ends. Take the notion of “absolute security.” Proposals for a new security architecture advanced by President Xi Jinping, China’s supreme leader, revive old arguments about the bleak form of security generated when rival nuclear powers believe that war would lead to mutually assured destruction. Mr Xi sternly declares that: “No country should seek absolute security for itself at the expense of others’ security.” ​

Why aren’t China and America more afraid of a war?

Next to China’s irresponsible stand-off with America, the cold war looks almost like a model

www.economist.com

 

[Sean K]

The submarines have caused China to now warn OZ that we officially on its defence radar.
From The Evil Murdoch press

i guess we should be quaking in our boots.
Mick

This is funny stuff isn't it. We want 8 submarines.

China inventory:

 

[Sean K]

Where would we get our fuel from? last I heard we only have about a months supply.
Also if China isn't supplying the World with all their electrical Junk eg fridges, t.v's etc, they probably could cut back their coal, gas and iron ore requirements hugely.
Also Russia has massive reserves of coal and gas, if conflict does break out one would assume China and Russia would be allies.

We only have about 2 weeks with a couple of weeks in transit at any time. It varies.

Our strategic reserve is in the US, but who's to say that can be delivered.

The supply lines from Russia to China could be interdicted in any number of areas along the route.

Won't we be able to operate our jets and tanks on biofuel or solar?

We are not prepared.

 

[sptrawler]

We only have about 2 weeks with a couple of weeks in transit at any time. It varies.

Our strategic reserve is in the US, but who's to say that can be delivered.

The supply lines from Russia to China could be interdicted in any number of areas along the route.

Won't we be able to operate our jets and tanks on biofuel or solar?

We are not prepared.

Yes, that's kind of what I've been inferring.
What serious military equipment do we have, besides a few aircraft?

Chinese fleet

Having the world's third strongest army, China tops in naval power with over 777 fleet strength.

It has approximately 350 ships including 130 major surface combatants, a 2020 Pentagon report indicated.

It also comprises 50 destroyers, 72 corvettes, 123 patrol vessels and 36 mine warfare.

The country’s submarine capacity is 79, granting China the first place in the world. The navy has developed 12 nuclear subs over the past decade and a half, according to the US Defence Department report.

The Jin-class nuclear subs are capable of launching ballistic missiles and are considered as ''China's first credible, sea-based nuclear deterrent.”
Australian fleet

Ranked 19th among the 140 most powerful armies in the world, Australia placed 47th in terms of naval power.

The Australian fleet has 48 naval units which include six mine warfares, 3 destroyers and 13 patrol vessels. It has no corvettes on its fleet.

The fleet has 6 submarines. 4 are running

 

[JohnDe]

It wouldn't take long to set up and produce fuel from any number of our resources.

How much fuel did the Ukraine have before Russia invaded?

Have a look at the world map, what sort of military resources would China require to monitor all the oceans for enemy cargo ships, and then be able to send an attack force while defending their assets?

War is not as simple as some here believe it to be.

Australia may have only 2 weeks' worth of fuel, but that is for private use.

England, during the war, struggled with domestic fuel supplies. They managed.

 

[mullokintyre]

It wouldn't take long to set up and produce fuel from any number of our resources.

How much fuel did the Ukraine have before Russia invaded?

Have a look at the world map, what sort of military resources would China require to monitor all the oceans for enemy cargo ships, and then be able to send an attack force while defending their assets?

War is not as simple as some here believe it to be.

Australia may have only 2 weeks' worth of fuel, but that is for private use.

England, during the war, struggled with domestic fuel supplies. They managed.

Geez, lucky we have an electric car!
Mick