China Bears

[Mr Z]

So: tothemax6 says once more, undoubted China construction bubble, crash coming, history will be my judge, signing out.

LOL, visionary, just visionary! Got anything more useful? My abusive little friend!

 

[Starcraftmazter]

Well yeah it kinda does, recovering from over supply where demand is not leveraged to the hilt is a lot less of a bubble than recovering from over supply and credit pumped demand.

Well one thing to consider is the structure of the demand vs supply. It's one thing to say there's a demand for housing, but it's another to say there is a demand for "luxury" housing (by Chinese standards) which is being built, if the people who do not yet own such property simply do not and can never hope to make enough money to afford it.

Another thing to worry about is that even a 20-30% fall will see a lot of the middle/upper middle class people lose very significant amounts of money (and going by interviews I have seen with them, these people are not at all aware of the fact that RE can actually go down in value), which is not good considering internal consumption for consumer goods is already very low in China. This will cause the aspiring middle class to consume even less in the economy - at a time when the Chinese central government is frantically trying to boost internal consumption.

Yes and it appeared more emotional than deductive. Pardon me if I want to cut past emotion and look for fact.

I fail to see how, all my analysis are reasonably sound. I hold no investments which are either long or short on China.

We don't have a free market anywhere in the world today, government are twisting the fates of all of the largest economies, they are all deeply perverted in one way or another. .... Is inevitable being confused with imminent?

I agree. And my point is that the more the government interferes with the markets, the worse the economy of that country will end up. I also agree that there are economic problems virtually everywhere (but not entirely) in the developed world, however it is because they do exist, and because China is ill-prepared and ill-suited to deal with them, that I think they will be hit particularly hard. Instead of implementing strong reforms to make their economy more market driven, they have relied ever more on a construction bubble to keep the magical gdp growth figures flowing. To me this just reeks of corruption and incompetence.

With all due respect, we have China over investing and the US under investing both heading for a wreck. After the wreck China will still have the investment, which if you are going to wreck anyway is a better way to go. At least China will have something for the pain, the US on the other hand?! That goes for the factory overbuild and all the other industrial follies that have been pointed out, in the end they will still own the capacity where as the US has been gutted. Much like the US's rise to prominence IMO, well so far... that kinda assumes that China makes it to the top. The demographics are the strongest argument against that IMO.

Well once again, I don't disagree with any of that. It seems we are both in agreement that there will be some sort of a crash, the difference in views being on the size and/or end result.

I cannot begin to predict what will happen afterwards or the scale of it. It is very hard to tell. I think it will depend on China's role in the new economy after the recession/depression we may well face. At the end of the day, they have 2 things to keep growth going;

1. Production capacity
2. Foreign exchange reserves

Now (1) will only be good if there will be some semblence of demand, and if the developed countries choose not to move to protectionist policies that would negatively impact China's exports.
And (2) will only be good if the developed countries' who's debt China now holds choose not to inflate away their debt problems.

Granted, both of these sound somewhat drastic, but these are desperate times we are living in.

 

[Mr Z]

Stratfor

Manufacturing a China crisis

 

[Starcraftmazter]

Bad rental yields in China

 

[Mr Z]

Jim Rodgers

 

[Logique]

Nice histogram of responses going there Mr Z, although there's 2 don't knows.

Can't claim any great insights on China, but I voted with most (so far) others - near term bear, long term bull.

 

[notting]

More cheating and deliberate global financial destruction implemented by the Chinese communist party. This time solar panels.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44968075

 

[Mr Z]

Ahem! The Americans, of all the people on this planet, have no right to bitch about subsidies! Jeez Louise, we'd better off down here if they didn't push $20 billion a year into their farms. I'd rather that there where none at all but this is throwing stones in glass houses.

 

[notting]

The US is the clear champion, innovator of free markets.
The US does help out it's farmers which when you listen to the above video makes a little sense.

China on the the other hand has no free market what so ever. It's all controlled by the the Communist rulers and anything that looks like it's powering along without them is taken by them!
China is motivated by the intent to destroy industries abroad to gain power is very different to helping out your dying farmers. Of course the US is not perfect but it's very different.
Saying that US should not throw stones is like China lecturing Australia on human rights in long winded monologues when human rights issues are raised. China does this to monopolise the time spent on human rights discussions to avoid questioning and any accountability for the daily unthinkable atrocities they continue to perform on unprecedented scales all over the place.

 

[Mr Z]

The US should not throw stones over subsidies, especially at the country that is bank rolling them! China is also subsiding the entire US! Do they wanna bitch about that as well? Nah mate the yanks are a classic for "heads I win tales you lose" deals! It is kinda funny to see them cop it back and whine about it!

The yanks are always whining about their loses to China but never acknowledging they'd be screwed with out them.

The greatest free trade nation that never was... the USA calling for more tariffs, LOL gimme a break. Pot calling the kettle black.

 

[notting]

. Pot calling the kettle black.

So let's hear your long list of examples where China is freer than the USA to back up your revolutionary and profoundly insightful statement.

 

[Mr Z]

So let's hear your long list of examples where China is freer than the USA to back up your revolutionary and profoundly insightful statement.

You are wandering off the goat track there! We are talking about trade and how its conducted not freedom.

Don't get sarky chump.

 

[notting]

You are wandering off the goat track there! We are talking about trade and how its conducted not freedom.

Free trade examples perhaps?
Please.
If the kettle is black it must be easy to let rip with them all.
Sport.

 

[Mr Z]

WOW, you really seem to beleive that their poo don't stink, you must be a yank! Later dude.

 

[notting]

WOW, you really seem to beleive that their poo don't stink, you must be a yank! Later dude.

I will hold my breath don't be long!

 

[Dowdy]

China isn't a true free market economy (they're banks were proped up just like the USA) but they're probably the most capitalistic nation today.

 

[notting]

Yes, the leaders just like the Russian leaders are ultimate capitalists.
Trouble is, no one else is allowed to be.

"Opposition leader Tony Abbot has indicated he will shift Australia's stance on trade with China should the coalition be installed into government at the next election, accordion to Fairfax Media.

Mr Abbott said he would put free trade agreement talks with the emerging giant, which began over five years ago under John Howard, on hold, to focus on Australia's relationship with Japan.

According to Fairfax, Mr Abbott said Japan was a higher priority because is a pluralist democracy and a ''vastly more'' market-based economy than China.

He said any deal with China would be ''one of the more problematic'' because there were questions over ''to what extent China is a market economy''. " - Business Spectator

 

[Dowdy]

Yes, the leaders just like the Russian leaders are ultimate capitalists.
Trouble is, no one else is allowed to be.

Just like the USA leaders are ultimate central planners

 

[notting]

This Guy in the above video is a book peddling idiot.
China sold 50B of Treasuries just last week!! He said China can’t sell them.
China should keep this up to raise their dollar which will give them more buying power in the current tanking global economy to buy global commodities. US treasuries are being snapped up by everyone else freaking out about Europe it’s perfect for China to sell now, they are shrewd traders.
Further, this nob in the video claimed it’s easier to start up a business in China than the US.
Total rubbish.
You have to be a connected China man to get any significant business off the ground.
Foreign investment is raped and gutted in China and normally fails. Pretty much the only foreign thing that has worked is the use of China’s labor force and that has just led to mass counterfeiting and stolen technology - fake, copy cat factories which compromise the original foreign brand even fake Apple stores.
Take Google for example, it was allowed to enter the Chinese market with excessive regulation, pay offs and constant government censorship and spying then was ripped off by Government controlled Baidoo, then manipulated into irrelevancy, as was Fosters, Telstra etc etc. All losing Billions for their efforts.
That’s not how the US works believe it or not.
It’s also not what will ultimately work in the end either.
I'm boaring myself crapping on about China don't think I can stomach much more of it.
If it's not obvious to you by now well

 

[Dowdy]

This Guy in the above video is a book peddling idiot.
China sold 50B of Treasuries just last week!! He said China can’t sell them.
China should keep this up to raise their dollar which will give them more buying power in the current tanking global economy to buy global commodities. US treasuries are being snapped up by everyone else freaking out about Europe it’s perfect for China to sell now, they are shrewd traders.
Further, this nob in the video claimed it’s easier to start up a business in China than the US.
Total rubbish.
You have to be a connected China man to get any significant business off the ground.
Foreign investment is raped and gutted in China and normally fails. Pretty much the only foreign thing that has worked is the use of China’s labor force and that has just led to mass counterfeiting and stolen technology - fake, copy cat factories which compromise the original foreign brand even fake Apple stores.
Take Google for example, it was allowed to enter the Chinese market with excessive regulation, pay offs and constant government censorship and spying then was ripped off by Government controlled Baidoo, then manipulated into irrelevancy, as was Fosters, Telstra etc etc. All losing Billions for their efforts.
That’s not how the US works believe it or not.
It’s also not what will ultimately work in the end either.
I'm boaring myself crapping on about China don't think I can stomach much more of it.
If it's not obvious to you by now well

That guy in the video predicted the housing collapse, the GFC, and the gold bull run so maybe you should do a bit more research into your foolish responses. Calling someone a idiot/ nob just weakens your argument
50b out of what - 3 trillion lol. Not even a drop in the water. Maybe you should try and run a business to see how hard it is to work around red tape

Watch these clips to see USA red tape. 2nd is a 6 part series






Back on topic - In relation to China, i'm an extreme bear near term (3-5years) but extreme bull long term (30-50 years)