Charting the Crash

[Porper]

...and the Yen gave the heads up.

Yes, not looking good.All the good guys look like being correct.

Looks like we had a quick Bull Trap after the drop 2 weeks ago and now we are going down again.

Just put my first ever short on the XJO index.

Still doesn't feel right though somehow.

 

[ducati916]

enzo

As far as I am concerned this is an inflection point [from when China spewed last week] for the end of the cyclical bull, and the resumption of the secular bear market.

All the arguments for are on the blog.
Suffice to say, we''ll see how it pans out, but a hedge fund just blew out $800M today and will be liquidated.

The market is starting to exact the toll for cheap risk.

jog on
d998

 

[wayneL]

enzo

As far as I am concerned this is an inflection point [from when China spewed last week] for the end of the cyclical bull, and the resumption of the secular bear market.

All the arguments for are on the blog.
Suffice to say, we''ll see how it pans out, but a hedge fund just blew out $800M today and will be liquidated.

The market is starting to exact the toll for cheap risk.

jog on
d998

Agree, not looking good from here.

 

[rico01]

Beeuuuttiifful
Come on down
Its a great time to be in puts

 

[ducati916]

Yes, not looking good.All the good guys look like being correct.

Looks like we had a quick Bull Trap after the drop 2 weeks ago and now we are going down again.

Just put my first ever short on the XJO index.

Still doesn't feel right though somehow.

You feel guilty, almost anti-capitalism.
But you know what..............
When the profits roll in.............somehow you just manage to get over it.
Strange how it works that way.

jog on
d998

 

[tech/a]

Thought it was pretty clear yesterday.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=133849#post133849

 

[wavepicker]

Beeuuuttiifful
Come on down
Its a great time to be in puts

Isn't that the truth!!!!!!!!!!!

Whether the bulls like it or not, this market is going back to 5000, it cannot be any other way.

 

[wayneL]

Downside trading curbs in again.

http://today.reuters.com/news/artic...77212_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-NYSE-CURBS-URGENT.XML

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Downside trading curbs in again.

http://today.reuters.com/news/artic...77212_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-NYSE-CURBS-URGENT.XML

Great to see the free market in action.

Even Moses Bernanke can't stop the derivatives sea from turning into a tsunami.

I think it's what everybody knew but was afraid to say in public.

The emperor has no clothes

 

[Uncle Festivus]

We are looking for the bond market to signal the equity market, thus we are not principally worried about the net yield, but the yield spread

We would look for an increasing spread between Treasuries and Corporates.
Thus in a flight to safety, the Treasury yield will fall [as they are bought] and Corporate yield will rise [as they are sold]

........The current stability in yields will not last much longer. The downtrend and uptrend lines are converging quickly, forcing an eventual a breakout in one direction or another. On Monday, the 10-year yield was at 4.555%; the uptrend line came in around 4.52% and the downtrend line came in around 4.95%.
Either way, stocks aren't likely to be happy.
A break above or below long-term trendlines puts the current soft-landing, Goldilocks economy scenario at serious risk. And risk is what the stock market fears the most.

Full story

 

[ducati916]

No they won't, downgrades are coming thick and fast in the US, and soon the yield spread will start to open up.

For instance DuPont [DD] Budweiser [BUD] and Federated [FD] all downgraded
As for the Junk, it's starting to go t1ts-up.

I see the ASX is getting spanked today currently, wouldn't want you guys to feel left out now would we.

jog on
d998

 

[Uncle Festivus]

I'm a bit confused now Ducati, are you not both saying the same thing in a round a bout sort of way? Bottom line is a recession?

 

[ducati916]

I'm a bit confused now Ducati, are you not both saying the same thing in a round a bout sort of way? Bottom line is a recession?

Bottom line is a recession.
I would call it for the end of 1Q start of 2Q 2008

jog on
d998

 

[money tree]

recession = rate cut = weak USD = $$$ for me

 

[wayneL]

Dow dips under 12000 and new lows for this correction/bear

 

[Kauri]

And the FTSE is taking a real hiding too 2.5%

 

[ducati916]

S&P500 getting spanked again.
You ASX guy's are in for some more today I guess as well.

jog on
d998

 

[JoshyJ]

Looks like hibernation is ending and the bear is starting to wake with a very very grumpy attitude. ( I was expecting a recession end of the year or early next year, gotta admit i might of been way off. Especially after seeing the US markets today. )

 

[ducati916]

Seem to be staging an EOD comeback.

jog on
d998

 

[wayneL]

Seem to be staging an EOD comeback.

jog on
d998

Gotta snatch that short side profit when it's there... these short covering rallies can be vicious.

As it happened I was just about to cover some futures at s2 when my broadband dropped out, had to rely on trailing stop... costly.