Charting the Crash

[KIWIKARLOS]

The question is will it bounce back in days/weeks or is this the start of something big?

 

[money tree]

this is only the beginning

it wont be 1987, but it wont be pretty

 

[tech/a]

Here is some good technical stuff.
Seems Frank D and Radge are on the same "Wave" length.

http://lightning.he.net/cgi-bin/suid/~reefcap/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=1;t=001592

Radge was all over it on 23/2 Behind the Wall of Knowledge.

 

[noirua]

The US Dow Jones closed down 416.00 at 12,216.24. This followed a speech by "Greenspan".

My portfolio is about 75% in cash. Unusually, I'm a bit worried even so, as a fall of 3.3% in the Dow Industrial will see most stocks on the ASX fall into the red. Some miners may see 10+% falls.

 

[wayneL]

this is only the beginning

it wont be 1987, but it wont be pretty

So hang on Crashy. You make an unprovoked ad hominem comment about me being bearish, and you're calling a bear market?

You wait till AFTER the biggest sp shock in six years when it is so bleedin' obvious that the whole market is in a dithering panic?

There is a monumental hypocrisy here.

 

[Magdoran]

Here is some good technical stuff.
Seems Frank D and Radge are on the same "Wave" length.

http://lightning.he.net/cgi-bin/suid/~reefcap/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=1;t=001592

Radge was all over it on 23/2 Behind the Wall of Knowledge.

Geez Daffy,



Hey, I called a top for XAO with Feb 24 as the key date on 22 January 2007! Frank was hardly precise. He didn’t give a date or an index level. What did Nick do?

What about my calls: 22 January 2007 see post 645 in “Zinc the metal for 2006", then on 01/02/07 post 4 in “Trading The SPI - Gann Techniques”, and my clear comments on 23 and 26 Feb on “Can we quit job and invest in stocks full time?” post 99, 106, and 112, and I gave the actual high target as my first choice in "ZFX – Zinifex" post 1408 on 17 Feb.

Just look at the posts…


Mag

 

[spitrader1]

So hang on Crashy. You make an unprovoked ad hominem comment about me being bearish, and you're calling a bear market?

You wait till AFTER the biggest sp shock in six years when it is so bleedin' obvious that the whole market is in a dithering panic?

There is a monumental hypocrisy here.

professor and i have been talking about this for some time. we have not called it correctly, we put to large a time frame on it. We had 6mnths to 2 years, so we can hardly say it we picked it.

But what we do agree on is that this is were the real money will be made. The number of people that have made money out of this bull market that dont know how to trade a bear market will come out today. The membership numbers of ASF will fall. Nobody wants to know about the market when its falling. So come on all you bull market traders, with ure uranium stocks that have air abnormalities that i could find if i walked down pitt street mall. Shhhh....whats that noise in the background, choking?? Spluttering?? Strap in, and get set-lets see how you go when ure balls are sweating!! For what its worth, -143 pnts, and a good day to buy qaulity assetts. Comments Professor?

 

[professor_frink]

professor and i have been talking about this for some time. we have not called it correctly, we put to large a time frame on it. We had 6mnths to 2 years, so we can hardly say it we picked it.

But what we do agree on is that this is were the real money will be made. The number of people that have made money out of this bull market that dont know how to trade a bear market will come out today. The membership numbers of ASF will fall. Nobody wants to know about the market when its falling. So come on all you bull market traders, with ure uranium stocks that have air abnormalities that i could find if i walked down pitt street mall. Shhhh....whats that noise in the background, choking?? Spluttering?? Strap in, and get set-lets see how you go when ure balls are sweating!! For what its worth, -143 pnts, and a good day to buy qaulity assetts. Comments Professor?

It shall be a good shake out me thinks
SPI futs off 170-not much in the way off support in sight.
How many weeks did the DOW go without a 2% one day fall?
Spi, I don't think the bulls will be too fearful just yet. A week of this and they might be

 

[wavepicker]

Geez Daffy,



Hey, I called a top for XAO with Feb 24 as the key date on 22 January 2007! Frank was hardly precise. He didn’t give a date or an index level. What did Nick do?

What about my calls: 22 January 2007 see post 645 in “Zinc the metal for 2006", then on 01/02/07 post 4 in “Trading The SPI - Gann Techniques”, and my clear comments on 23 and 26 Feb on “Can we quit job and invest in stocks full time?” post 99, 106, and 112, and I gave the actual high target as my first choice in "ZFX – Zinifex" post 1408 on 17 Feb.

Just look at the posts…
Mag

No disrespect to Frank or Nick because they too have made some fine calls in the past, but this is exceptional work by Magdoaran IMO. He mentioned both price level AND date as early as 2 months ago.

Excelllent work Mag, I think you will be teaching Mclaren a thing or two if you keep this up, not the other way around

Cheers

 

[money tree]

So hang on Crashy. You make an unprovoked ad hominem comment about me being bearish, and you're calling a bear market?

You wait till AFTER the biggest sp shock in six years when it is so bleedin' obvious that the whole market is in a dithering panic?

There is a monumental hypocrisy here.

lol.

since the Dow was 10600 (and probly earlier) you have been telling us all the sky is falling. The market has done nothing but run since then, and anyone who listened to you has lost a bundle. yet here you are now, crowing about how right you were........yeah.....theres hypocracy all right. of course if you kept making the same call you would be right one day. what credit I will give you however, is that you called a fall during the day which eventuated. But winning one battle doesnt win the war.

and if I want to change tack to bear suit now, thats my right. I called the market up back then, remember?

"I suppose when the dow is 20,000 and XJO is 6000 that will still be the case?"

 

[tech/a]

Moggi.

Sorry I havent read every post.

Good on you then.
Guru status should be yours!

 

[Kimosabi]

I just think Greenspans mouth wants the "Weapon of Mass Destruction Award" for 2007 YTD.

He's anticipating Bernanke's mouth repeat expected shot for the title (2 years running) on Wednesday.

Interestingly, Greenspan is being blamed for the problems in the US Subprime Lending Market for Lowering Interest Rates too Low and for too Long, and for reducing lending standards at the same time.

 

[Smurf1976]

When central banks undertake a rate raising cycle, the usual end result is that something breaks with the questions being what and when.

It would seem we have our answers. First the US housing market started to fall, then the US sub-prime lenders started going bust at the rate of one every few days. And now we have a fall in the major stock indices.

Looks like the what and when has been partially answered. Only trouble is, losing a few % doesn't count as the major incident that would be expected so I'm expecting either more losses or that something else big happens before we get another round of more inflation (the central banks' answer to everything).

That a loss of less than 20% is considered a serious fall highlights the situation we're in today. We've seen incredibly low volatility in recent times which is unlikely to last forever. The market is overdue for some nice big ups and downs judging by history.

 

[Kimosabi]

All I'm seeing today is Red...

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Plenty of posts on this one in one short day, a lot of frustration seems to have been held in and vented out in such a short time .

A bit of perspective......considering 06 & 07........10 percent down at open today on most.

 

[emily]

So much fustration around, I cant even open commsec. I think the server is busy like hell....

 

[Magdoran]

No disrespect to Frank or Nick because they too have made some fine calls in the past, but this is exceptional work by Magdoaran IMO. He mentioned both price level AND date as early as 2 months ago.

Excelllent work Mag, I think you will be teaching Mclaren a thing or two if you keep this up, not the other way around

Cheers

Moggi.

Sorry I havent read every post.

Good on you then.
Guru status should be yours!

Thanks Guys,

But one good call does not a guru make.

And my next call could be complete garbage – the market is a capricious beast. It’s just that this time I could see the cycles clearly, and the probabilities were high… but I can only do this in specific conditions.

All techniques have their day in the sun, but to think this kind of thing can be repeated 100% of the time is just not realistic.

To even think of being half as good as Bill McLaren would be an honour, but I’m certain I’m not even close to that. Bill has been in the market longer than many on the ASF have been alive. I have a long way to go to earn my stripes, and my work is still embryonic at best. Also, if I had never studied his materials, I would never have been able to see this…

I still consider myself at the intermediate level, and will be for at least another 5 years in my view. You need over a decade of consistent performance to rate in my view…

Also, beware this move, I suspect this is more like the 1994 high than a 1987 crash scenario. The fundamentals may hold the flow, unless the Yen carry trade blows a hole in the indexes… If short, take profits in an orderly fashion because this market can spike back quickly!


Regards


Magdoran

 

[pacer]

etrade is down too....glad I sold a heap of NCM yesterday, but those ZFX shares are still siting there and I want out...phones all locked up too!

What good is having computerised buying and selling if I can't access the damn thing!
NOT HAPPY!..................

 

[Nick Radge]

Certainly a good call Mag. One thing I don't posess is a handle on time analysis.

Pacer,
That is a concern. Phew. I remember 1987 when people turned up at the door step...yikes!

 

[Kimosabi]

GOLD got hammered pretty bad, but seems to on the way back up