Charting the Crash

[theasxgorilla]

Yes I think they've been trying, but are getting overwhelmed at the moment.

IMO

Looks like George Dubya finally managed to get some of the PPT on their cell phones. Support around 1475ish.

 

[wayneL]

Is this usually accurate for open?

Not at that stage of the night. Bids at 6091 now and could be anywhere by the open.

Looks like George Dubya finally managed to get some of the PPT on their cell phones. Support around 1475ish.

Yer, he musta got hold of Bernanke and told him to put another shift on at the printing press... especially for GS account number 95.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Not at that stage of the night. Bids at 6091 now and could be anywhere by the open.

Yer, he musta got hold of Bernanke and told him to put another shift on at the printing press... especially for GS account number 95.

Are we talking about the same GS?

Lenders are getting a "wake-up call" about pricing risk, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in a televised interview Thursday, as U.S. stock markets plunged amid fears about shaky credit markets and the housing sector. Paulson said he wants to see more "discipline" on the part of borrowers and lenders. Meanwhile, Paulson said, the ongoing shakeout in the subprime lending market is going to be "largely contained" and doesn't seem to pose a threat to the overall economy.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Nice work PPT...1475 holding on the SPY...how do they pick these levels? Do you have to know Gann to get into the PPT? Is 1475 any thing significant, other than where price is holding now?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Nice work PPT...1475 holding on the SPY...how do they pick these levels? Do you have to know Gann to get into the PPT? Is 1475 any thing significant, other than where price is holding now?

400 seems to be the magic number; I remember this was roughly the same amount the Dow corrected by overall back in March. Tonights session will be the one to watch to see if they can talk it back up?

 

[wavepicker]

ahhhhhh,

I see red, I see red, see red.......
nothing like watching a bloodbath first thing in the morning

It's ben a long, long time between drinks for the bears

Looks like them bulls are not gonna be happy chappies today...

 

[noirua]

Black Monday, 19th October 1987 sent shivers down the spines of everyone in the financial world. Unlike the 1973-75 Major Bear Market it included the Gold sector and wiped 41.8% off the Aussie index in the 12 days that followed. The smaller mining sector recorded a 75% hit.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987))

On the Thursday before the crash on Black Monday the UK was hit by the most enormous storm that felled millions of trees. Strange how the UK has just been hit by enormous floods in the middle of Summer.

 

[Sean K]

Just heard $300b wiped off the S&P.

Technical correction IMO.

Especially for Australia.

Profits are up, unemployment low, inflation OK, pe's are not overstretched, housing has had a correction and come back OK, interest rates are still reasonable and not going anywhere fast, people aren't too happy!!.

Just a pause for us.

I'm looking for some good shorts though:

WDC, RMD, RIN, anything else linked to the US....

 

[Kauri]

A picture still says it a lot better than I could....

 

[macca]

BUT !!!!!!!!!!!

The AUD is down against the USD, if we apply that to all resources, our miners are better value today than yesterday

I think we are still going to be down but that AUD fall will help

 

[Gundini]

Recovering quite strongly now though macca, 87.42 after being in the 86 range this morning...

 

[ducati916]

Kauri

Very cool chart. Have no idea whether it will *work* but very cool nonetheless.

jog on
d998

 

[DB008]

down 163 and still counting.
Sometimes it seems easier to just wait 6 months to a year and go short on the ASX (IMO) with CFD's.

 

[Kauri]

Kauri

Very cool chart. Have no idea whether it will *work* but very cool nonetheless.

jog on
d998

Duc,
Was even *cooler* 5 weeks back on the 21st June when I first posted it.....
Cheers
.............Kauri

 

[ducati916]

Kauri

The ASX printed the same shape back in I believe 2003, just prior to launching into your Bull market.

I think it was Guppy that posted the chart [same hemisphere shape]

Although that particular pattern failed, conditions and values are much changed four years later.

The pattern that you identified on the ASX, looks as if it may *fit* the S&P500 chart, has that initial curvature.

jog on
d998

 

[theasxgorilla]

Well will you look at that...support at 1462.

 

[wayneL]

OK what's this dumpage all about? The excuses proffered so far:

*Sub-Prime Contagion
*Removal of uptick rule for shorts
*Yen carry trade unwind
*Funds cashing out to build a war chest.

Let's look at these one at a time.

*Sub-Prime Contagion - Well Duh!!! All the Wally's who said it was all contained should be tied up to posts and their tongues cut out. Of course it was going to take out the rest of the economy... 'nuf said?

*Removal of uptick rule for shorts - Absolute BS! Institutions have been able to do it (shortsell without an uptick) via derivative proxies forever. It's only the small fry like us that can now do this now... and we have always been able to do it with futures... erroneous at best.

*Yen carry trade unwind - Empirically, this is not only back on the agenda, but looks to serious. While the Dollar has been in a strong retrace against Euro, Pound, AUD etc, it is getting absolutely poleaxed by the Yen. The carry trade is unwinding and unwinding fast.

*Funds cashing out to build a war chest. - According to at least one money manager, the evidence is in the oilers being crunched in the face of rising crude. Conclusion - the funds want CASH.

... and look at treasuries. There is mountains of cash going there in the face of a crising interest rate environment as safe haven. Expect some volatility there!

IMO, This is the beginning of the credit bubble apocalypse. The $417 is finally hitting the fan. This is not to say we go straight down from here, but we should be aware of that possibility... and at least expect massive VOLATILITY.

Cheers... be careful folks.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

It's a bit ironic that cash is king at the moment, the flight to 'percieved' safety, but nobody has told them it's not worth anything either. The real action will start when this is realised en masse. Getting set for the next phase...
Can I cash out my super yet?

 

[wavepicker]

It's a bit ironic that cash is king at the moment, the flight to 'percieved' safety, but nobody has told them it's not worth anything either. The real action will start when this is realised en masse. Getting set for the next phase...
Can I cash out my super yet?

That's a very important point Uncle, I was thinking avou that aspect yesterday as I have seen quite a few people retiring this year at work. The so called "baby boomer" generation.

If this turns into something worse in the weeks and months ahead, what will be running through their minds???

For now though you are right cash is king, and for those who got short, "ka chiiing" is king. Got short the SP500 last week and have been very happy so far. Has turned out to be my best trade for the year and still holding!!
Market is impulsing down and still has further to go so will look at taking some profit when starts to become at risk.


Cheers

 

[theasxgorilla]

If this turns into something worse in the weeks and months ahead, what will be running through their minds???

'00 to '02 many saw 30-40% evaporate in less than a year. But it took only a couple more years after that and they were back in the black and a few more after that (today) their superfund balances are at levels they never imagined.

I think the multitude don't use any form of technical analysis and probably wont find out how hard any pull back has hit them until they receive next months statement.