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Would high fuel costs and a recession affect the metal detector sector?
CDA - Codan Limited
- Thread starter Trader Paul
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@sptrawler I take a superficial approach but find nothing in the May guidance fy22 that refers to fuel or recession being factors. I think that their expectation that fy22 will be the second best on record for Minelab speaks to them not being critically hampered by anything at all. I assume that Sudan is still their biggest market and they refer to disruptions there but do not specify what in the hand-out. Anyway they expect normalization there in fy23. The share price still looks precarious to me fwiw.
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MAYBE
one logic would say less folks able to go exploring/detecting ( at commercial and hobbyist levels ) ( cash-flow issues )
another logic would suggest lower employment might cause more folks to explore/detect for casual income ( hobbyists/scavengers ) ( and do so for longer time-frames per expedition )
galumay
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Rather than speculate about the unknowable, (fuel costs, recession, inflation etc.), the way I approach it is to reverse engineer the current price and see how resilient it looks. In CDA's case a price of under $7 assumes essentially no growth, ever, even with a discount/MoS rate of 10%. Alternatively based on profit, assumes a drop in FCF/earnings of over 30%.
Also worth considering how much the mix has changed, comms sector has greatly increased as a % of revenue. Finally its debt free, has fantastic ROIIC, and has net margins north of 20%!
Of course none of that means the price wont drop a lot further! It just helps me sleep at night as a long term owner of the business, and gives me the conviction to add to my postition at a price that is multiples of my cost base.
Also worth considering how much the mix has changed, comms sector has greatly increased as a % of revenue. Finally its debt free, has fantastic ROIIC, and has net margins north of 20%!
Of course none of that means the price wont drop a lot further! It just helps me sleep at night as a long term owner of the business, and gives me the conviction to add to my postition at a price that is multiples of my cost base.
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Caveat a major crash development (as for any chart commentary, as t/a is an attempt to plot sentiment) but a strong case can be made for a significant low made on June 17, @ ~$6.15, where a bullish 'dragonfly doji' daily candle was formed on unusually high volume - see thumbnail insert. Also of note (I guess) is that this daily candle made an 'island reversal' with the before and after candles.
On the weekly chart we can see a sloppy 'W' low and the last weekly candle falls outside my rough fit downtrend line. A hurdle will be to make a higher peak than the May 30, $8.30 peak made on the way down. I think there might be a short term pullback first as momentum is getting ahead of price and volume is modest.
Recently there has been some significant director buying on market:
Barclay, 27 June, $105k spent, $7.17 per share
Ianniello, 25 May, $105k spent, $7.56 per share
Ianniello, 10 May, $181k spent, $6.70 per share
Held
Weekly
Daily
On the weekly chart we can see a sloppy 'W' low and the last weekly candle falls outside my rough fit downtrend line. A hurdle will be to make a higher peak than the May 30, $8.30 peak made on the way down. I think there might be a short term pullback first as momentum is getting ahead of price and volume is modest.
Recently there has been some significant director buying on market:
Barclay, 27 June, $105k spent, $7.17 per share
Ianniello, 25 May, $105k spent, $7.56 per share
Ianniello, 10 May, $181k spent, $6.70 per share
Held
Weekly
Daily
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Order getting filled for some @ 7.21
Really doing little more than buying back half of the tranche that I sold in July 2020 @ 7.69. Thought it was getting stretched and overpriced then; don't now, assuming fy22 results confirm guidance. As we know price more than doubled from that 7.69 sell price back then - the heady days.
Held
10 Days, 15 minute intervals
Really doing little more than buying back half of the tranche that I sold in July 2020 @ 7.69. Thought it was getting stretched and overpriced then; don't now, assuming fy22 results confirm guidance. As we know price more than doubled from that 7.69 sell price back then - the heady days.
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Full year results were released 19 August last year.
Chart still looking good although getting towards short term overbought level. But price has been smoothly ratcheting higher since the 17 June low. Price has passed the 30 May final peak of the prior downtrend = higher high in my book.
Held
Chart still looking good although getting towards short term overbought level. But price has been smoothly ratcheting higher since the 17 June low. Price has passed the 30 May final peak of the prior downtrend = higher high in my book.
Held
Alf Ianniello, Codan (ASX CDA) CEO, Talks To Strawman Members
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This years results out.
Sales up 16%
Net profit up 3%.
Dividend 15 cents.
I'll take it.
Mick
Sales up 16%
Net profit up 3%.
Dividend 15 cents.
I'll take it.
Mick
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Yikes, i am alone in my admiration.
Market cruched CDA by 12% so far.
Will resist the urge to "buy on the dips".
Mick
galumay
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Bizarre, all results telegraphed and inline with previous guidance, record sales, profits and divvies, FCF back to positive in 2nd half, but Mr Market dumps it like a rotten fish!!
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Pretty sure I'll be in for a few more of these next week as long as the price still languishes. Pick up the H2 15c dividend (ex date Thur 25 Aug). This is well below my 'intrinsic valuation' and markets for metal detectors like North Africa should pick up with an improved gold price and quieter politics. Even if they don't, newer markets should develop in time if you believe management. Countermines segment growing.
Then there's Communications division growing and its new acquisitions performing well.
Don't have a view on the chart but it has already retraced ~50% of rally off the June bottom.
Held
Then there's Communications division growing and its new acquisitions performing well.
Don't have a view on the chart but it has already retraced ~50% of rally off the June bottom.
Held
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
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I'm in two minds about CDO. I had a big win on a small bet a few years ago and a small loss on a big bet last year.
Even Stevens atm. I'm not all over Mac's retirement and CDO's focus going forward.
I'll look at it again next week.
gg
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So I bought 2,500 more @ $7.34 on Monday and am up for a few more if it gets tempting again. Investment, not trading tranches.
Down around $7.20 the price had dropped ~62% from the recent high at $9 and if lines are drawn across peaks of the 15 minute chart the rate of descent is easing, so a better than weak chance the low is in for the retracement?
15 minute chart
Down around $7.20 the price had dropped ~62% from the recent high at $9 and if lines are drawn across peaks of the 15 minute chart the rate of descent is easing, so a better than weak chance the low is in for the retracement?
15 minute chart
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Well off the low of 7.11 today but picked up another 2,500 @ 7.20
It's interesting to put a ruler across the recent peaks of the 15 minute chart and see the price move outside downtrend resistance late in the day. It's only a 5 day, 15m interval chart but I am using it because I feel a bottom should be near based on valuation.
Have to post about something.
5 day, 15 minute.
It's interesting to put a ruler across the recent peaks of the 15 minute chart and see the price move outside downtrend resistance late in the day. It's only a 5 day, 15m interval chart but I am using it because I feel a bottom should be near based on valuation.
Have to post about something.
5 day, 15 minute.
galumay
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I dont really see how you can go wrong in the medium to long term at current prices @finicky. Thats a whooping discount to my range of value, its such a strong business on so many metrics. Of course black swans can always **** on our parade, but there are not many more compelling opportunities for such low downside IMO.
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I think I recall you sayìng that CDA was already a big part of your p/f @galumay so I guess that's why you're not currently buying? Or maybe you subscribe to the big crash being ahead? I do, yet I'm buying, WTF? Of course it might be your passion for technical analysis that I'm missing.
galumay
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LOL! Yes, its my passion for TA. ?
You are correct, its already a big part of my personal PF and I bought more when they were $7 a couple of months ago. Its bloody hard buying them at these prices when I have parcels that cost under $1. ?
You are correct, its already a big part of my personal PF and I bought more when they were $7 a couple of months ago. Its bloody hard buying them at these prices when I have parcels that cost under $1. ?
Dona Ferentes
A little bit OC⚡DC
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therein lies one of the fundamental conundrums. (My rationale then becomes one of allocation and how to manage the risk implied in being overweight)
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
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I've had a good look at CDA over the past few days and I'll stand aside.
It is a strong buy from all the brokers which makes me immediately suspicious that they are looking for buyers to offload their large clients who are selling.
There has to be some bad unannounced news such as an insider selling down or a major problem with earnings or profit.
The chart looks atrocious. Even before this most recent fall the RSI was diverging from the consolidation late July to last week.
Sometimes you have to decide not to play. All good wishes and profit to those who feel otherwise and prove me wrong.
gg
It is a strong buy from all the brokers which makes me immediately suspicious that they are looking for buyers to offload their large clients who are selling.
There has to be some bad unannounced news such as an insider selling down or a major problem with earnings or profit.
The chart looks atrocious. Even before this most recent fall the RSI was diverging from the consolidation late July to last week.
Sometimes you have to decide not to play. All good wishes and profit to those who feel otherwise and prove me wrong.
gg
