CDA - Codan Limited

[galumay]

For my own interest I have revisited my valuation and assuming H2 is similar to H1 (historically true), then i calculate a roughly 10% increase in my range of fair value to around $11. I was thinking that $8 represented a pretty compelling price when I valued it around $10, so in very 'back of the envelope' terms, I would be interested now at $9.

So regarding my previous post, I dont think i am going to be adding here!

 

[mullokintyre]

Whatever your investment or Trading rules are, its important to stick within the rules, and not be swayed by sentiment, whether its your own or someone else's.
Mick

 

[galumay]

Very true Mick, its one of the things I have got much better at as an investor.

 

[finicky]

I really think everyone should be swayed by my sentiment, to the point of blind faith, lol - especially if anyone is over concentrated in a stock or if holding insufficent cash for a big 'upset'.
@galumay have not been considering adding CDA in a dip. It is only in the event of a major downturn that I will be looking at it in that light again. I have been buying cash-strapped goldie specs though - go figure.

Held

 

[peter2]

I'm sure we're not going to see the price of CDA halve again after today's glowing trading update. Further details to be released 17/2/22.
This doesn't mean that the price can't go lower especially in this very bearish market.

In light of the update I've placed CDA in the reversal watch list awaiting a low sized risk buy setup.
Note: This watch list has been growing quite fast due to the current panic selloff.

 

[mullokintyre]

Half yearly out today, in line with expectations.
Good parts: highest sales qtr on record, NPAT and EPS both up 21%, increased dividend of 13 cops.
The bad bits: big increase in inventory, which reduced net cash from business activities and a planned big 65 mill increase in CAPEX.
No guidance provided,
The market was not impressed, and down nearly 6%, so naturally I bought a few more below 8.40.
Mick

 

[galumay]

I think its getting pretty compelling at that sort of price, @mullokintyre
The only question for me is about the level of trust in management with their narrative about the impacts on FCF. I am pretty comfortable with it given their history with the business. I think the market struggles with taking a longer than 3 month view of business! Increasing inventory & Capex seems prudent to me given the disruptive effects of the last 2-3 years, but of course we wont see the benefits for some time.

 

[mullokintyre]

Despite the 13 cent divvy, CDA hit another 52 week low today.
The market has spoken.
Mick

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Despite the 13 cent divvy, CDA hit another 52 week low today.
The market has spoken.
Mick

I've traded this in the past after a divi and it turned quite quickly up.

It hasn't hit my stop loss yet.

gg

 

[galumay]

Odd, I nearly bought some more today when they hit $8.20, but maybe they drop even more?? I don't know why the sentiment is so poor. I went back thru the H1 report and my own valuation/analysis and the only thing that worries me is that negative operating cash flow. I didn't think most market participants looked that far down the report!!

 

[peter2]

If there's no obvious red flags in the fundamentals then the falling share price is an interesting anomaly. CDA goes 0.13 XD on 23/2/22.
I'll continue to monitor for a reversal setup.

 

[peter2]

Nothing to see here until recently. Price has stopped falling and traded sideways for 4-5 weeks. The volume has been reducing and the $ amount traded per day (red line) has fallen to low levels. This would indicate that all those who wanted to sell probably have. Now we need to see some increase in demand to complete the reversal and perhaps start a trend up. I'd like to see price close above 7.60 as a first step.

 

[frugal.rock]

Shame they don't have a dividend reinvestment plan.
Still got a $35 check laying around from last divvy.
Would invest a larger amount with them if they a DRP...

 

[mullokintyre]

CDA, another 52 week low.
Sigh, what hope does a bloke have?
Mick

 

[Ann]

CDA, another 52 week low.
Sigh, what hope does a bloke have?
Mick

Wow, yuck! Sorry Mick, I normally try to avoid any negative comments on a person's shareholdings. Just for interest, I glanced at this after seeing your post.

When this stops its free fall, which could even be as low as $4 if it tries for a double bottom, it is going to take ages before it is clear of its massive falling trendline and eventually climbs above the 200dMAs which look like water spurting out of a hose at the moment!

Only my thoughts and I could be very wrong.

 

[mullokintyre]

Wow, yuck! Sorry Mick, I normally try to avoid any negative comments on a person's shareholdings. Just for interest, I glanced at this after seeing your post.

When this stops its free fall, which could even be as low as $4 if it tries for a double bottom, it is going to take ages before it is clear of its massive falling trendline and eventually climbs above the 200dMAs which look like water spurting out of a hose at the moment!

Only my thoughts and I could be very wrong.

View attachment 140349

Its Ok thanks Ann, I have got over it.
Will just have to rely on the other three stocks in the years competition to rocket to the top.
Mick

 

[Ann]

Its Ok thanks Ann, I have got over it.
Will just have to rely on the other three stocks in the years competition to rocket to the top.
Mick

Oh phew! It is the annual comp you are talking about and not one of your holdings, what a relief. I haven't looked but I am sure my annual picks all are in need of a snorkel and flippers by now!

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

CDA, another 52 week low.
Sigh, what hope does a bloke have?
Mick

I’m surprised as well with its fall. On the move this evening so won’t be able to post a chart.

I don’t hold but will hop on at the first sign of a recovery in that impressive downtrend.

gg

 

[mullokintyre]

Oh phew! It is the annual comp you are talking about and not one of your holdings, what a relief. I haven't looked but I am sure my annual picks all are in need of a snorkel and flippers by now!

I do have them in the super portfolio, but the tipping competition is the most important outcome.
I only get four to choose from, whereas I can buy or sell lots of stocks in the SMSF to offset my losses (like KTA for instance).
Mixk

 

[galumay]

Topped up my holding in the personal PF, its just too compelling at sub $7. Well below my range of value and a significant margin of safety. One of the best businesses i own.