CBA - Commonwealth Bank of Australia

[Triathlete]

Not sure a short would be the safest bet here.

I have drawn a past successful swing trade which resolved right to the penny and another potential one just about to go. It looks like CBA will resolve at around $100 if there is an outward breakup.

I hope you are correct, this will also give us our last wave 5 (that I have been waiting for) so would also look at a price of between $96 and $123.

The only thing is I do not know how it will get there in the current environment it is not showing any forecasted EPS growth going forward only ROE of 21%...Time will tell...

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

Its got no hope of getting anywhere near $100 in the next 1-5yrs, the APRA/Basel regulation has severely impacted bank shares with a further decision still to be finalised on capital requirements

 

[tech/a]

CBA is in Distribution

At best will range to the current high
Will not make new highs.
Likely to test lows.

 

[Ann]

CBA is in Distribution

At best will range to the current high
Will not make new highs.
Likely to test lows.

Why tech/a? Got a chart to substantiate your opinion? You may well be right.

I am putting up the same chart but with a close up view plus the daily MACD. I use a few indicators to confirm my opinion about a chart's direction. These are daily indicators set under a weekly chart so there is going to be a shorter time frame for the indicator's resolution. My other daily indicators are in step with the MACD.

I should add this section of the chart is not drawn absolutely precisely as I would like it as it was supposed to be just a rough, quick opinion for yesterday on a 15 year chart. Re-drawing it won't really alter any of the outcomes, it just looks sloppy!

 

[tech/a]

An alternate analysis

CLICK TO EXPAND

.

 

[Ann]

You may be right tech/a. In a bull market the Descending Triangle is likely to break upward, just at the moment the DOW is into its third touch into a long term bearish Rising Wedge coming from November 2015. If the DOW turns bearish which I must admit looks fairly likely now that I look at it closely, then your Descending Triangle on CBA may well offer some nice shorting!

I will try to put up a chart somewhere more appropriate for the DOW a bit later.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Hi tech/a,

That second chart you have there is pretty interesting!

I like the idea of looking for charts where a large percentage of all closes in the last year were in a X% range.

 

[tech/a]

Ann/Investa

I'm not a great lover of larger patterns.
In this case while it does form a triangle
It is in an up trend and although CBA is
now in a down trend the pattern is the
entire down move.

In my view this is highly likely to range and destroy the pattern
and any analysis attached to it.
Smaller patterns tend to be more likely to conform to accepted
behaviour.

The closes in a particular range or zone work very well for
accessing moves in futures where you get wide range swing bars
over a period of accumulation or distribution yet close within a
tight tick range. You see this often in smaller timeframe charts.
Ill find a relevant example at sometime if interested and post it.

 

[Ann]

You may be right tech/a. In a bull market the Descending Triangle is likely to break upward, just at the moment the DOW is into its third touch into a long term bearish Rising Wedge coming from November 2015. If the DOW turns bearish which I must admit looks fairly likely now that I look at it closely, then your Descending Triangle on CBA may well offer some nice shorting!

I will try to put up a chart somewhere more appropriate for the DOW a bit later.

OK, I have been doing a very close analysis using two swing trade calculations of the 12 year daily chart of the DOW and have come to the conclusion in my opinion it is going to rise, the rising wedge may not be bearish on this occasion and is headed for around 20,020 by my current calculations.

If the DOW does rise it is likely to have a buoyant effect on CBA and our market in general, therefore being short may turn out to be a wealth hazard!

Here is a link to the DOW chart to which I refer:- https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8840&p=920108&viewfull=1#post920108

Shortly I will put up another chart for CBA, the last was sloppy and done without proper thought and there will be differences.

 

[Ann]

New, replacement chart for the earlier one, which was very poorly drawn. This time more careful swing trade drawings make me come to the conclusion of a potential outcome and re-visit of $96. There may be initial weakness on the way maybe down to $65 as there is a short term falling support/trendline. It appears there could be a return to higher levels around late January or early February 2017 with the price breaking above the descending triangle.

In other words folks, I reckon it will go up early in the New Year! Watch the DOW!

 

[McLovin]

I think the impact will be in the order of <$2B fine (<1.5% in market cap), and perhaps one-off costs of $2-300m to upgrade systems/training/ATM machine etc. If you want throw in extra $50m per year in additional costs... you still can't find more than 3% impact on the company in terms of market cap. Friday's fall was more than enough.

I don't think it will come anywhere near $2b. I'd be surprised if it's more than $50m. The media is frothing about the 53,000 transactions, but they were just missed transactions that should have been flagged, 99.9% of them would have been legitimate. It's not as though 53,000 instances of money laundering were missed.

It's possible there's more to it, but imo, on face value it doesn't seem that bad.

 

[qldfrog]

It's possible there's more to it, but imo, on face value it doesn't seem that bad.

I do not think it is but that is a very populist way of pinning big bad banks so that you can levy extra taxes on them as per SA, AND another way to show cash as the enemy
so limit cash deposit withdrawal, tighten cash until gone and when sh*t happens (not if) make sure than all accounts can be locked and seized as per Cyprus/Greece, etc

 

[greggles]

Commonwealth Bank approaching long term support at $70. Will it consolidate here or break through and head lower?

 

[McLovin]

I don't think it will come anywhere near $2b. I'd be surprised if it's more than $50m.

LOL. Got that wrong!

Must be a bit of blowback because of the RC into banking, ANZ acting as a cartel and WBC rigging interest rates.

 

[McCoy Pauley]

Reported that the expected fine would be $1 billion so there was a jump in the share price when the fine was announced as being $700 million.

I hold.

 

[mcgrath111]

Seems to have found some support recently. Call me what you want, but I think CBA is holding some value for a short / mid term hold.

Don't quote me in 2 months when it's trading at 30$

 

[bigdog]

Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s (ASX: CBA) half-year results release this morning. CBA reported a 6% drop in half-year profit to $4.6 billion and 1.7% increase in cash profit to marginally miss estimates in a flat result for the bank.

 

[PZ99]

Thanks Bigdog. No cut to the divvy...

Spoiler

 

[Ann]

CBA originally listed on Thursday September 12th 1991 and the initial price was $5.37 today they closed at $70.79

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

Good move for CEO to cut 1 in 4 jobs (roughly 10,000) and get bank moving again.