CBA - Commonwealth Bank of Australia

[cynic]

Gents in the interest of all other members interested in your analysis can you Fu(king get over the self indulgence criticism of each others analysis FFS.

FFS X2 its the markets and it will do what ever it feels like, none of you repeat none of you have the absolute crystal ball.

No if no buts.

You have opinions thats all nothing more no matter what method you use.

We are all interested in your opinions on the market and value them all even if they are 180 degrees apart.

We are not interested in petty fu(king point scoring please it demeans all.

OK got that of my chest feel free to flame me but give the rest a break


Cheers

+1

IFOCUS, I am quite confident that you are by no means alone with your sentiments in this regard.

I cannot offer any specific analysis of CBA as it's some years since I've traded ordinary shares.

What I can say, having been a very long term cusotmer, is that after some annoyance which resulted in me taking much of my banking business elsewhere, was repeatedly thwarted when the CBA subsequently acquired each of the banks concerned.

After having the aforementioned experience twice, I was reluctant to further tempt fate and am now resigned to the likelihood that I'll probably be a CBA customer for the remainder of my days!

 

[Triathlete]

Trading Waves involves a pattern recognition. Opening the position I do not know how far prices will go.

Thanks for that explanation Rimtas.

You mentioned pattern recognition, that is what I thought the chart I put up was.

I have it as a wave 4 retracing and to me the pattern/wave will not be busted unless it breaks below $60 at that point I would reassess.

It does not bother me at the moment either way because I am not in at the moment but will be interesting to see what happens from here.

 

[rimtas]

Thanks for that explanation Rimtas.

You mentioned pattern recognition, that is what I thought the chart I put up was.

I have it as a wave 4 retracing and to me the pattern/wave will not be busted unless it breaks below $60 at that point I would reassess.

It does not bother me at the moment either way because I am not in at the moment but will be interesting to see what happens from here.

I know that CBA still has a possibility to make w4 as you and Porper anticipate, and if CBA would be trading alone in the market I would probably also would think about this possibility. My assessment of possibilities doesn't limit to one stock-I apply the same anticipated count to the entire sector, the simmilar moving stocks, and the market overall. If the majority contadicts to this possibility, I just reject it. I never trade stock and think that it will make it's own waves. I'd rather go with that count which favours majority of instruments, especialy those who are making trends. You should have already noticed that I never trade, comment or make any analysis on other stocks than bluse chips. Because even sometimes they have nice waves, but it is hard to put money on the count when you see index or sector contradicts.

 

[gartley]

Thanks for that explanation Rimtas.


I am not in at the moment but will be interesting to see what happens from here.

I went into banks last week, for me taking the cycles I use at face value then clearly we should get a good run over the next 2 weeks. I won't get involved in the ongoing arguments over CBA wave structure. I personally think very long term wave counts are difficult as I have made made mention before.

 

[rimtas]

I went into banks last week, for me taking the cycles I use at face value then clearly we should get a good run over the next 2 weeks. .

Gartley, you must be afraid that some sort of bullbear.com will write a review later of how you expected up trend to continue and longed banks, which are leading XAO down. History is repeating-Prechter shorted SPX about half year in uptrend with a strong bearish argument, you are longing banks in downtrend with a strong bulish (technical) argument.
And you are not providing any stop loss levels, alternate scenarios or explanations what to do and when if markets will go against you. TYou claimed that you are living from your trading, so probably many newbies are following your (non-existent) cycles and gartleys and loosing money everytime. Be responsible. If you went public, you want to be respected and recognized in virtual reality(because in real life you can't do this), you must go till the end. Not just throw a message and then just roll out like a snake throwing in some post factum market info.

 

[gartley]

Yesterday Jow Blow insisted that personal attacks and insults end now...

Obviously you don't care about that and have decided you will do what you want. Says a lot about your character...

In my parting comments to you Rimtas I will say to you as follows:

1/ Yes I am still in the banks and have not been stopped out yet.

2/ From my very first post on this forum I have received nothing but criticism from you. That's fine, it's a public forum but others should know that.

Prechter should be accountable as he get's paid. As for the newbies I am sure you have a greater following than I do.

 

[Porper]

Yesterday Jow Blow insisted that personal attacks and insults end now...

Obviously you don't care about that and have decided you will do what you want. Says a lot about your character...

I haven't responded to personal insults the past couple of days...or read any new ones, but if a certain member is still being provocative I think the mods should step in and put an end to it.

Some of us have recently posted analysis for discussion and perhaps even critique...not ridicule and insults.

My last post on the subject...let's move on.

 

[rimtas]

My last post on the subject...let's move on.

I hear it almost at your every post. How many more last posts will you write, untill you finaly stop?
It would be great if you could take your stance as you did in the last 12 months-just be a silent reader. The forum would benefit greatly from this.

 

[rimtas]

. Says a lot about your character...

Thanks, I like yours too.

 

[Triathlete]

Trading Waves doesn't involve trading price, it is only trading the form. You can't mix anything else with Wave Principle, it must be used alone, because there are no any indicators which can tell you that the form of the pattern is right, complete, or recognized.

Hi Rimtas,
I do not quite agree with you on what you stated above, only because I use a different technique.

What I have been taught and shown does include using Price analysis and Wave theory analysis and seems to me to compliment each other in regards to getting the odds of having successful trades.

For myself I always like to start off with some price analysis to find out the strongest price levels of a stock. As you would know not all support and resistance levels are meaningful that's why we need to pinpoint the strongest ones which I do by making up price tables first.

Once I have these levels I mark them on my chart. I then mark up the EW and this allows me to see where we are with the wave principle in relation to the strongest price level and gives me a much better understanding as to where the stock price is likely to move to as well as how far the move is likely to move both on the upside and downside prior to placing a trade...This seems to work well for me.

 

[gartley]

I agree Triathlete, and do likewise too. "Look left first, because price structure will leave clues".

 

[gartley]

Interesting article about some big banks around the world starting to shed jobs. As the bear market in the banking and finance sector continues here no doubt we will see likewise within the big 4.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/38934/big-banks-cutting-tens-of-thousands-of-jobs-huge-implications

 

[rimtas]

Hi Rimtas,
I do not quite agree with you on what you stated above, only because I use a different technique.
.

That's al right. I don't use plain EW as well, it is rubbish. Elliott was blind with one eye so he missed a lot of things. I am more with the fact that markets move in fractals, which consists of waves, sometimes they are indeed Elliot waves .Progressing Elliot waves sports fractals at different degrees of trend, I use them as entry/exit point.

So my understanding of markets is purely geometrical, where price and time doesn't exists, just the form, which is different each time. But to grasp this is quite easy when you adopt the main idea.

 

[PennD]

Looking through various charts trying to find some clear patterns CBA has stood out to me.
First there is a strong channel on the Daily



Which could form the right shoulder of a Large downward sloping head and shoulders pattern? To early to tell...?



Housing crash?

 

[Quant]

CBA Slow moving dinosaur , pays to look at the big picture sometimes

 

[PennD]

CBA Slow moving dinosaur , pays to look at the big picture sometimes

View attachment 65341

In lay mans terms?

 

[Triathlete]

My thoughts on CBA is that a EW 5 has started and the stock to move higher over time even with the negativity on the banks.
My previous analysis showed the $72.50 to be a strong support level and this seems to be the case and was also around the 50% retracement level for a wave 4.We have had a few higher highs and higher lows from this turn.
There was also a head and shoulders pattern but this also seem to have not moved as far as I had previously anticipated which was a move towards $60.
So have bought in at $76.26 after the Gann swing lets see what happens......

 

[Porper]

My thoughts on CBA is that a EW 5 has started and the stock to move higher over time even with the negativity on the banks.

A couple of things worth considering.

First of all wave-4 is usually not a zigzag, it's often a flat pattern or a triangle. Wave-2 is normally the "sharp" correction.

Secondly, symmetry is lacking in terms of time. Wave-4 is almost always longer in terms of time than wave-2 which clearly isn't the case here.

Also, if we are seeing wave-5 unfold (possible, but low probability) then strong impulsive price action should be taking place. Again, not really happening...at least not yet. I believe it's much more likely that wave-4 is still in motion.

 

[Triathlete]

A couple of things worth considering.

First of all wave-4 is usually not a zigzag, it's often a flat pattern or a triangle. Wave-2 is normally the "sharp" correction.

Secondly, symmetry is lacking in terms of time. Wave-4 is almost always longer in terms of time than wave-2 which clearly isn't the case here.

Also, if we are seeing wave-5 unfold (possible, but low probability) then strong impulsive price action should be taking place. Again, not really happening...at least not yet. I believe it's much more likely that wave-4 is still in motion.

I will take those points on board...

What about the law of alternation ....which states that if a wave 2 unfolds in a sideways movement, instead of the normal zigzag correction, then wave 4 will alternate and unfold in a zigzag corrective pattern.

If wave 4 is still in motion do you see it falling further or just moving sideways??

 

[Porper]

I will take those points on board...

What about the law of alternation ....which states that if a wave 2 unfolds in a sideways movement, instead of the normal zigzag correction, then wave 4 will alternate and unfold in a zigzag corrective pattern.

If wave 4 is still in motion do you see it falling further or just moving sideways??

Yep, guideline of alternation is a valid point.

However in reality wave-4 hardly ever makes a textbook zigzag in my experience. Wave-2 is shallow which means wave-4 should be something completely different. A triangle or flat fits the bill...to me anyway. The most important aspect for me is the time element. The recent retracement is out of sync with the first correction.

If the triangle is unfolding, price action should be choppy on the way higher. A low should be locked in though with good upside, albeit within a corrective move higher.