CBA - Commonwealth Bank of Australia

[Garpal Gumnut]

If CBA goes below $30, you can put me down for some.
I am wondering what people are basing the really big falls on, other than the media hype? The only people that are getting sick in large numbers, are old or infirm, working age people aren't getting overly sick from reports.
So other than the disruption caused by businesses, maybe closing short term, what is going to cause the massive disruption to the financial sector?

In a word fear.

In four words the madness of crowds.

I agree with your comments but fear is about, restaurants are empty, people are not travelling, big bank loans owing to banks will rank after the ATO in bankruptcy. Italy has placed a halt on mortgage repayments. That would be attractive to our government. Less cash flow for banks. The market falls, insurance, "wealth producing" listed companies and again banks will suffer.

gg

 

[qldfrog]

If CBA goes below $30, you can put me down for some.
I am wondering what people are basing the really big falls on, other than the media hype? The only people that are getting sick in large numbers, are old or infirm, working age people aren't getting overly sick from reports.
So other than the disruption caused by businesses, maybe closing short term, what is going to cause the massive disruption to the financial sector?

When bubble burst, there is no rational thinking, same as when these bubbles expand
FOMO is replaced by fear, and this is enough to seize the money flow, cascading collapses etc etc

 

[sptrawler]

When bubble burst, there is no rational thinking, same as when these bubbles expand
FOMO is replaced by fear, and this is enough to seize the money flow, cascading collapses etc etc

That is exactly when investors make most of their money.
Last panic attack, CSL hit $27, CBA $26, WES $12, BHP $4
If we didn't have these incidents, the market would just meander along at 4%. Booms and busts are where the real money is made and lost.
Also it is the reason most people miss the boom, the bust is too recent a memory.

 

[qldfrog]

That is exactly when investors make most of their money.

But not at the pop of the bubble, but at the burst which could take years
Or even virus crash and slow deflatng of the Bubble after a fake rebound in 9 to 12 months
Time will tell.
For CBA, issues are low rates, competition from pure internet banks and RE valuations .
Immigration cuts should be very negative too

 

[sptrawler]

But not at the pop of the bubble, but at the burst which could take years
Or even virus crash and slow deflatng of the Bubble after a fake rebound in 9 to 12 months
Time will tell.
For CBA, issues are low rates, competition from pure internet banks and RE valuations .
Immigration cuts should be very negative too

Well put your money in a CBA term deposit at 1.5% and sleep easy.

 

[qldfrog]

Well put your money in a CBA term deposit at 1.5% and sleep easy.

Cba term deposit..hum...but gov bonds yes..
And then i remove the fomo fear and greed via systems who capture the market psychology indirectly via trends along different time scale
So far so good

 

[HelloU]

Auction:
That was about 20% of todays volume in the auction that was just thrown at any buyer (the auction trade price was nearly $1 below the 4pm close - which itself was near the days low)

 

[Dona Ferentes]

yes indeed. Intraday for CBA:

 

[qldfrog]

Auction:
That was about 20% of todays volume in the auction that was just thrown at any buyer (the auction trade price was nearly $1 below the 4pm close - which itself was near the days low)

post 4pm auction
I am unfamiliar: who buy sell then? I can not pass order as retail after 4pm
it is then handled the following day...

 

[tinhat]

post 4pm auction
I am unfamiliar: who buy sell then? I can not pass order as retail after 4pm
it is then handled the following day...

Seriously, you watch CBA? Perhaps kidney stones. I 'haven't seen a doctor for about seven years. I doubt now is the right time.

 

[HelloU]

post 4pm auction
I am unfamiliar: who buy sell then? I can not pass order as retail after 4pm
it is then handled the following day...

??, very few on-line brokers do not let you join the auction action. Best with a live data platform especially if the stock is not so liquid and usually live platforms will give a changing expected auction price as the queues change.

Whatever gets matched in the auction when the hammer falls do so at the same price, no matter what the bid or offer was (until the match process is exhausted - so not every buy or sell order will be filled).

 

[qldfrog]

Seriously, you watch CBA? Perhaps kidney stones. I 'haven't seen a doctor for about seven years. I doubt now is the right time.

@tinhat, it is high time you look for professional help for your own sake

 

[qldfrog]

??, very few on-line brokers do not let you join the auction action. Best with a live data platform especially if the stock is not so liquid and usually live platforms will give a changing expected auction price as the queues change.

Whatever gets matched in the auction when the hammer falls do so at the same price, no matter what the bid or offer was (until the match process is exhausted - so not every buy or sell order will be filled).

Thanks
,so we are talking a reconciliation process happening post closure for existing pending order?,not any off market action?
How can we have so much volume then? Or is there a way to join it in the same way i can participate at the open auction determining the open price?but this time for the close price.
Most of my actions are usually done on the open.i will google this

 

[qldfrog]

Ok for the details
Pre CSPA
Between 4:00 pm and 4:10 pm, Sydney time, the market is placed in Pre-CSPA. Trading stops and brokers enter, change and cancel orders in preparation for the market closing.

Closing Single Price Auction
The Closing Single Price Auction takes place between 4:10* pm and 4:12 pm, Sydney time.

ASX Trade calculates closing prices during this phase.

*Random + 60 secs

Adjust
The Adjust takes place from 4.12 pm to 4:42 pm, Sydney time. During this phase:

• Brokers may ‘tidy up’ their orders by cancelling unwanted orders, amending orders, etc.
• New orders cannot be entered and ASX Trade does not execute trades.
• Brokers wishing to trade contact each other by telephone. ASX Market Rules ensure that trading takes place in an orderly fashion.

Trading during the Adjust phase is referred to as overnight trading.

Adjust ON
This state is the same as the ADJUST session state.

 

[qldfrog]

@HelloU thanks for raising the issue, knowing more now

 

[Country Lad]

Adjust

The Adjust takes place from 4.12 pm to 4:42 pm, Sydney time. During this phase:
· Brokers wishing to trade contact each other by telephone. ASX Market Rules ensure that trading takes place in an orderly fashion.

This was the advantage of having a good relationship with a full service broker in years gone by when I was heavily trading. A discussion with him about the day and any significant events after close on a number of occasions would lead to a decision to buy or sell something during the adjust. He could always find another willing to do a deal or would be contacted by another broker for a trade at a more attractive price than the close.

 

[JTLP]

I am predicting CBA will fall.

To $42

Or $24

A 10 year monthly chart shows lines of support and resistance at the $60 and $45 mark.

Breaking below the $60 mark is a given on price action this month and supported by the RSI.

In uncertain times it may bob below $45, and there is much clear air below that.

I would be reading weekly rather than daily charts and monthly as one would a weekly.

It is too volatile a situation to be predicting daily unless one is a skilled day trader.

gg

View attachment 101186

A fall to $40 would be another 40%ish? CBA is basically a barometer for the ASX so you’re saying the market could go down to 3000? That’d be bloody grim and I can’t see it happening...

 

[Cam019]

Interesting to see how CBA acts around this level. Could offer up some price support here. See charts below.

Bullish divergence shown below on the RSI. Found a little bit of price support here also. Coming back out of well oversold territory.

Check out the volume going through the last 10 trading days. Very interesting.

 

[sptrawler]

A fall to $40 would be another 40%ish? CBA is basically a barometer for the ASX so you’re saying the market could go down to 3000? That’d be bloody grim and I can’t see it happening...

Why do you put a value on CBA of $60, when WBC, NAB are $15, just wondering.
Is it on their book value, EPS, future earnings or sentimental/brand value?

 

[JTLP]

Why do you put a value on CBA of $60, when WBC, NAB are $15, just wondering.
Is it on their book value, EPS, future earnings or sentimental/brand value?

Probably a mix of sentiment / brand value. Without looking at the financials they’re far and away Australia’s most advanced / best bank (from the incumbents). No other players hold a candle to them.

It’s also why I say they are the barometer. It’s such a staple in the majority of super funds / LICs that if you saw a 40% drop in value, I honestly think you’d see that reflected in the overall market.