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Probably should clarify this.OPEC finger pointing re manipulation of the POO.
Take note from 5:15 onwards in relation to "buying the dip" scenarioNothing wrong with buying the dips even when the trend is down. Fast and powerful counter moves happen if the dip is timed correctly. But first need to find a way to differentiate between the probability of a shallow rally compared to the probability of good move.
This is what I do as explained in the excel file attached. For example in the last rally we had in the ASX. Firstly the TDI indicator which is based on the RSI and sentiment. When the green and red lines "throw over" the light blue band ( actually green line is enough),this sets the possibility of a counter trend move against the larger trend or the light blue line ( 200 ema) in the upper pane. This throw over suggests a good move to come in the opposte direction. Next move to the Dual CCI. Brown is 55cci and blue line is 13cci. After the TDI throw over event occurs, cast eye to 55cci ( brown line) and see if it was at -100 or less. If so the conditions are in place for a good tradeable counter trend rally. When the the cci13 crosses zero that's the signal to long with stop just below the last price low but only on one condition. When CD1 is above zero and FT above 50 as this leads to the momentum of the move up. Hold positions till TDI green and red throw over at the other extreme ( upper blue channel line) and cci13 crosses zero moving down. Along with this I also use price projection to add weight to the possibility of a good move but it's not necessary
understood, need to trade larger trend but can dip buy by finding a way to differentiate between the probability of a shallow rally compared to the probability of good move.Take note from 5:15 onwards in relation to "buying the dip" scenario
Well, it's not really my theory, just a collection of observations.
The earlier points go towards helping the last point and the standing government.
- OPEC finger pointing re manipulation of the POO.
- Various sources finger pointing re manipulation of the POG.
- Most commodity prices apparently ignoring standard supply demand rules.
- Most Central bank's late to act, gee, didn't Brazil get in early...?
No need to mention which government but they can't be acting alone.
I'm off to the library now to borrow "The Catcher in the Rye". wish me luck...
Bear market, yep . Probably the biggest in our lifetime, correcting the biggest bull in history .I still think we're in a bear market overall with further to fall to possibly re-test June '22 low's imo (though till last Friday we'd had a nice "bear market rally" to make some coin $$ on but unfortunately good times don't last long these day's lol)
now dips aren't totally bad even if you are an investor ( not planning to sell in the rallies )Take note from 5:15 onwards in relation to "buying the dip" scenario
Bear market, yep . Probably the biggest in our lifetime, correcting the biggest bull in history .
My 2c. Not only test the Jun 22 lows but by end October will be testing the March 2020 lows....
As soon as June 17 low is broken ( and it will be) there will be a slew margin calls triggered and the market will capitulate until all the stops are taken out and sellers exhausted. It will be wholesale panic among investors. As Bill Rodgers says, wait until there is a pile of money on the ground just waiting to be picked up....am not sure March 2020 was a genuine support ( governments were bailing like crazy to create that K-shaped recovery ) but until we hit March 2020 levels again we won't know for sure
am kinda hoping for that ( yes it seems like morbid fascination )As
As soon as June 17 low is broken ( and it will be) there will be a slew margin calls triggered and the market will capitulate until all the stops are taken out and sellers exhausted. It will be wholesale panic among investors.
Some examples below:
View attachment 147235View attachment 147236View attachment 147237
Yep. They probably certainly will, but whether it's enough who knows. Rather than hope that they will ( as they are the cause of this through their reckless money printing policies) let's be optimistic about a big dip if it happens. It's opportunity, especially for those that are cashed up but more importantly for the younger generation who have a yet another chance to make their mark by buying low.am kinda hoping for that ( yes it seems like morbid fascination )
but still do NOT think it will be the BIG dip , i think they will even throw the kitchen sink at one last 'recovery ' before the US mid-term elections .. they can't afford to have ' Populists ' win the US Congress and Senate ( i think they would rather bankrupt the world first )
i am one of those boomers , that has already been ( preemptively ) retired , and this might be my last big chance to get a reasonable return on my investment , yes i expect it will make 2011 and 2020 look like picnics but you can only buy what is for sale ( while you have access to your money )Yep. They probably certainly will, but whether it's enough who knows. Rather than hope that they will ( as they are the cause of this through their reckless money printing policies) let's be optimistic about a big dip if it happens. It's opportunity, especially for those that are cashed up but more importantly for the younger generation who have a yet another chance to make their mark by buying low.
I feel sorry for the boomers who are just coming into retirement now as they will be the ones who lose most unless they take action very quickly although it's probably too late now. For the rest of us, the market will come back but my 2c worth: this will be a much longer bear market than previous ones. Once this wave a down completes we will get a really good wave b rally but it probably won't carry to new ATH. It will be followed by a very nasty wave c down in the longer term. The 20 year cycle ( if the pattern holds) is due to bottom this or next year, and if that is the case we are running out of time and so only a capitulation event can satisfy that low.
I am not far behind you. I worked in the auto industry for 38 years and was forced out when it was shut down.i am one of those boomers , that has already been ( preemptively ) retired , and this might be my last big chance to get a reasonable return on my investment , yes i expect it will make 2011 and 2020 look like picnics but you can only buy what is for sale ( while you have access to your money )
luckily in 2010 when planning for this adventure , i tried to pick companies liable to survive the very worst , which ts why i sold down 90% of the inherited WOW holding ( if they stumble so much in the good times how will they handle a rout )
and yes , sadly capitulation is very possible
As
As soon as June 17 low is broken ( and it will be) there will be a slew margin calls triggered and the market will capitulate until all the stops are taken out and sellers exhausted. It will be wholesale panic among investors. As Bill Rodgers says, wait until there is a pile of money on the ground just waiting to be picked up....
Some examples below:
View attachment 147235View attachment 147236View attachment 147237
the original plan , was to 'buy and hold ' and NOT draw-down and have a steady income stream for the rest of my lifeI am not far behind you. I worked in the auto industry for 38 years and was forced out when it was shut down.
It was hard finding new work and even harder now. Luckily I started with the markets in the early 90s and had my ups and downs for 10 to 15 years until I realized that this requires work, effort perseverance and a certain type of mindset. Most importantly a good money management plan.
The turning point for me came when I stopped trying to be a perfectionist and starting becoming a "good loser" because this game is full of losses and we just gotta learn to deal with them by cutting them as soon as possible and don't go into prolonged and deep drawdowns.
Cut the losses early, there is always another trade around the corner and just work on developing a positive expectancy.
Do that and you will survive and eventually prosper slowly in the longer term
The 2022 stock market crash has wiped out $13 trillion of wealth. That should be more than enough to get the Federal Reserve to ease off their panicked hyper-rising interest rate policy they have irresponsibly embarked on. This Fed Chairman is unable to act with finesse. His open market committee policies are irresponsibly large, both when he eased in 2020 through 2021, and when he tightened the past several months. Mortgage rates have doubled in just a few months, an unheard-of event, and are now the highest in 20 years. This is Master Planner economic warfare on Americans.The charts that you have put up are examples of recent deflationary (asset) bears. The answer to which was create monetary inflation which would transmit to asset prices.
The Fed and other Central Banks will certainly try the same ploy.
Only this time, we are already in an inflationary environment and money creation will lead not to a bull market, but phase II of this bear, which is a 1969 - 1982 type of bear.
The deflationary leg of the bear could take the SPY to 2000 odd. The bounce from Fed easing might take us back to 3000, then the erosion will take us down another 50%+ from there. Anything from 1000 to 1500 on SPY.
Along the way, fiat currencies will fail or more optimistically, be devalued significantly.
A ratio of 1.43 on March 1980 is what you are looking for:
View attachment 147241
jog on
duc
The 2022 stock market crash has wiped out $13 trillion of wealth. That should be more than enough to get the Federal Reserve to ease off their panicked hyper-rising interest rate policy they have irresponsibly embarked on. This Fed Chairman is unable to act with finesse. His open market committee policies are irresponsibly large, both when he eased in 2020 through 2021, and when he tightened the past several months. Mortgage rates have doubled in just a few months, an unheard-of event, and are now the highest in 20 years. This is Master Planner economic warfare on Americans.
The issues that led to hyperinflation are an aggregate supply shortage, as well as the Fed's massively historic balance sheet explosion of $6.0 trillion in a year and a half in 2020 and 2021. The Fed's policy to reduce inflation is to crush aggregate demand. They are working the wrong side of the equation. This Fed is not just incompetent, it is dangerous.
We are in it now. A bunch of simultaneous wave threes down. Batten down the hatches. It could be a nasty couple of weeks coming up.
Not yet, but looking at specific stocks rather than the index.Another 2% down as of 1050hrs. Anyone going for a swim?
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