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Buying the Dip on ASX

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Everyone is waiting for the interest rate to drop, here and in the US. I don't think you're going to see Aussie rates move until next year.


Australian shares plunge on US economic hard landing concerns​


Australian shares lost more than 2% on Friday, wiping out all gains made over the past two sessions, after weak U.S. factory activity data sparked a global sell-off on worries of an economic hard landing.

The S&P/ASX 200 index
XJO ended 2.1% lower at 7,943.20 points, their worst one-day drop since early March 2023. The benchmark had logged record closing highs in the last two sessions.

A measure of U.S. manufacturing activity fell to an eight-month low, spooking investors and triggering a sell-off globally on worries that the economy could be headed for a hard landing.

Wall Street ended sharply lower overnight, while an MSCI gauge of Asia Pacific equities (.MIAP00000PUS) was down 3.5% as of 0622 GMT. Australian equities make up just over 10% of the MSCI index.

Australian shares had nowhere to go other than down given the heavy losses in the U.S. markets, said Tim Waterer, a market analyst at KCM Trade.

"There is also skepticism about whether (U.S.) rate cuts will arrive quick enough to stave off a potential economic hard landing," Waterer said.

He added that while local investors received some relief earlier in the week on softer local inflation data, "our market is not immune to steep sell-offs in the U.S.".

A volatility index for the Australian benchmark (.AXVI), an indicator of investor sentiment and market expectations, surged 14% to levels not seen since early May.

Domestic banks
XFJ were the biggest weights on the local bourse, losing 2.6%, also slipping from a record high earlier in the week.

The "Big Four" banks shed between 1.4% and 4.1%. The index was down 0.2% for the week, snapping three straight weeks of gains.

Miners XXMM declined 1.4%, as Rio Tinto
RIO and BHP Group
BHP slipped 0.7% and 1.5%, respectively.

Technology XXIJ and energy stocks
XEJ also lost over 2% each.

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index
NZ50G fell 0.3% to end the day at 12,453 points.



 
TimeISmoney said:
Everyone is waiting for the interest rate to drop, here and in the US. I don't think you're going to see Aussie rates move until next year.
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i suspect you are correct ( there isn't an election looking in Australia )

in fact i still have a strategy ready , in case there is still one or more hikes by the end of 2025

( btw i have several strategies ready for different scenarios )

when i grew up 5% official rates was considered normal and even healthy , , but then i try to live a low-debt lifestyle
 
Snippet from weekend 'Market Matters'
  • On Friday night, a much weaker-than-expected July jobs report intensified worries that the US economy could be entering a recession – unemployed ticked up for a 4th month high to 4.3%.
Markets have experienced a seismic shift over the last few days, and until further notice, recession fears will hang over stocks. Remember, the average return for August/September seasonal weakness targets a pullback towards 7750, and that’s before we consider the aggressive rally into last week’s all-time high.

Second snippet
  • The SPI Futures are calling for the ASX200 to open down another 1.5% after falls on Wall Street, with Consumer Discretionary and Tech likely to lead the decline. We are likely to reduce some market exposure given these moves.
 
95% of my money is still in cash, but I reckon there might be a few false starts to drain that last bit of money from people's banks.
 
TimeISmoney said:
95% of my money is still in cash, but I reckon there might be a few false starts to drain that last bit of money from people's banks.
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i concentrated in getting myself into good positions from 2011 until now and between sensible departures ( when a business took a turn i didn't like ) and take-over activity ) i find myself with some cash ( and some more coming ) if not ,there is some div. income trickling in

the hard part will be selecting targets wisely , now my activities in 2020 and 2021 weren't bad ( but far from perfect ) but in 2020 i saw some alarming things , and wonder what conventions will be thrown aside in the next crisis having proceeded unpunished for stuff done in 2020

one might notice there is strange activity once again in the ( US ) short-term money market are we looking at 'Repo Madness version 2 ' or just a painful un-inversion of the yield curve

although i have trivial exposure to the bond markets they are a whale in the investment seas ( so whatever they do i will feel some waves )



i think the coming half year will be rather educational to veterans and novices alike , one might wonder if the plan is to convince the retail level folk to hide in ETFs ( and managed funds ) and leave the big decisions to 'financial wizards '
 
I'm happy, I bought something!
I don't need no trip to Italy on a decadent cruise liner.



Bought a vanilla slice of WDS after also considering about BPT and KAR.
 
the 4:10 closeout was a good 10 points higher than 4pm trading.... that's got to mean something.

 
i grabbed some extra ZIM , mines an array of metals and isn't liable to start a ( trade or hot ) war with anyone

very disappointed really with 20 buy orders still in the market i thought i might have snagged one or two more bargains
 
Sean K said:
I looked up shipping containers today that I could drop into the hill of a bush property and fill with canned food.
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i am surprised you can still type !

an associate bought 2 secondhand 40-footers and just the delivery costs made me dizzy

the next thing to source are great locks , you'll need them
 
Nikkei futures were 5.9 per cent higher near 6.45am AEST and Topix futures were up 7.5 per cent, a sign that perhaps the selling pressure that has hammered Japanese stocks is poised to end.

and so, shall we follow?? down 2% then back up?
 
will be looking for juicy nibbles

i don't see much at compelling value .. yet

the big banks are still around $27 ( or more ) , the big food retailers are still rather over-valued ( IMO ) there might be the stray opportunity in the big miners

i will mostly be thinking small ( parcels ) thank you
 
I didn't say anyone should load up the truck and fill it up, note the word 'carefully'. Back it up, don't have to put anything in it....it's only planning in the making. We can have a truck and have nothing in it if it doesn't suit, or have some peanuts if we so desire....it's a day for reassessment after the rout yesterday....assess the situation as the day progresses....good luck.
 
Dona Ferentes said:
well, the chartists use rear view mirrors ..
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"Technimental Traders" use every Trading Tool they can get their greasy little hands on, like Fundamentals first of all, then Any Facts from Any Source, Rear View Mirrors do come in handy (especially when explaining something to the beginners), Ramps, Rumours, Announcements, etc, etc....
 
well the beginners have to beat the 'bots ( High Frequency Traders ) or at least be close enough to get in relatively early

more experience has you looking in good places first ( sometimes with the order already in the market .. or knowing to look elsewhere )
 
We can expect a bounce but not be surprised to see another serious slump on friday.
Today i took profit on my vxx Volatility index,in the us, and moved to silver..both silver and gold went down offering a nicer opportunity
 
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