Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Buy when there's blood in the streets

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I'm a bit wary about buying the Macquarie bank now. Unlike most of the other shares which are falling because the market is down, one of Macquarie Banks funds actually lost money. And if its like many of their other funds, Macquarie banks own a hefty portion of it too.

but I agree in principle, buy on the uptrend.
 
There's blood in the streets today. I'm seeing plenty of what appear to be bargains in the resources sector, but haven't yet pulled the trigger out of concern that we haven't seen the bottom yet. Fear is driving the market at the moment, and fear is difficult to control. I think capitulation may still be some way off.
 
Yes buy but what...I bought a bit of oil cause even when sick or scared, we still need oil; thought about coal humm not down enough, looked at FMG..too woke..RIO hum nice but still a little bit to go
BHP..nah..
Banks ..they will be the first to fall but also to be rescued...
I toyed with PLS but when **** hits the fan no one care about tesla , they want food and heating.IPL still a bit too high
 
greggles said:
There's blood in the streets today. I'm seeing plenty of what appear to be bargains in the resources sector, but haven't yet pulled the trigger out of concern that we haven't seen the bottom yet. Fear is driving the market at the moment, and fear is difficult to control. I think capitulation may still be some way off.
Click to expand...
When looking at volume on ASX futures this morning, seems like a massive sell-order went through near the open, which could be indicative of a larger institutional investor closing-out their long exposure.

Of course, all trading carries risk, but this may be the reason for the huge declines within the opening 15-20 minutes.

The ASX200 has pared some of its losses, so it’ll be interesting to see if the move below 7000 encourages dip-buyers to step in, or if it leads to losses accelerating through the afternoon.
 
greggles said:
There's blood in the streets today. I'm seeing plenty of what appear to be bargains in the resources sector, but haven't yet pulled the trigger out of concern that we haven't seen the bottom yet. Fear is driving the market at the moment, and fear is difficult to control. I think capitulation may still be some way off.
Click to expand...
Yep we are only circa 10% from the all-time high, not really blood in the streets in the true sense. (Worse in other markets of course)

I am eyeing a couple of miners, but I am waiting till I see the whites of their eyes.... When the bond market gets slaughtered, that's when the real bargains will reveal themselves.
 
qldfrog said:
Yes buy but what...I bought a bit of oil cause even when sick or scared, we still need oil; thought about coal humm not down enough, looked at FMG..too woke..RIO hum nice but still a little bit to go
BHP..nah..
Banks ..they will be the first to fall but also to be rescued...
I toyed with PLS but when **** hits the fan no one care about tesla , they want food and heating.IPL still a bit too high
Click to expand...
added extra AIS , CMW , CEN ,EVN and WGX those were my top-ups yesterday

probably nothing today unless the market drop big time before the close
 
I follow the grain trail; GNC....also watching to get out at the same time.....just got out. This one has been good to me ....anyone who wants to trade this one, look up the history of trades and where the price is at certain times of the day (again, not an encouragement to buy, so please ignore if you are uncertain, always better to be safe than sorry)
 
eskys said:
I follow the grain trail; GNC....also watching to get out at the same time.....just got out. This one has been good to me ....anyone who wants to trade this one, look up the history of trades and where the price is at certain times of the day (again, not an encouragement to buy, so please ignore if you are uncertain, always better to be safe than sorry)
Click to expand...
Interesting as i thought this morning this is a stock i d like to have especially as we should get 2 to 3ty good seasons ahead.i then checked
But i backed off :was not yet a buy for me
 
qldfrog said:
Interesting as i thought this morning this is a stock i d like to have especially as we should get 2 to 3ty good seasons ahead.i then checked
But i backed off :was not yet a buy for me
Click to expand...
The consumer staples have been holding up since the war in Ukraine, Covid and lockdown, so I follow that, qldfrog. Ukraine used to produce a lot of wheat and was a food bowl of Europe. That I thought, placed GNC in a good position. Was at 52 weeks high about a week ago following their announcement. (Coles and Woolworths did well but pulled back today, so I thought some caution here is also warranted with this one. The depth remains good, but that doesn't mean it won't turn. Watch it for a few days and see how it behaves before jumping in.

I saw another post of yours mentioning banks. There was an article I read about this last week. I've found it and will paste it here , not sure if this is against forum rules, I'm sure someone will tell me if it is....................(by the way, number one is consumer staples)

2. Banks​


Banks remain among the best ways to play rising inflation/interest rates. An expanding Net Interest Margin (NIM) as rates rise boosts bank earnings and dividend capacity. Of course, the NIM is only part of the story. A slowing global economy risks a spike in bad and doubtful debts, which is bad for banks.


For the past 12 months, I’ve preferred global banks, believing US and European banks are better priced than their Australian peers. The BetaShares Global Banks ETF – Currency Hedged – is a simple, cost-effective tool for global bank exposure.


Lately, my focus has swung more towards Australian banks. I’m concerned that the Russia-Ukraine war could be a headwind for Europe’s economy for longer than expected. Soaring US inflation (I don’t believe US inflation has peaked) and aggressive rate hikes by the US Fed are another concern.


Australia’s economy looks better placed than most. We won’t escape the growth/inflation problems overseas, but a sharp increase in bad debts here looks less likely. There is too much at stake in Australian housing for policymakers to stomach a wave of defaults by allowing rates to rise too far.


For Australian banks, the VanEck Australian Banks ETF appeals.
 
eskys said:
The consumer staples have been holding up since the war in Ukraine, Covid and lockdown, so I follow that, qldfrog. Ukraine used to produce a lot of wheat and was a food bowl of Europe. That I thought, placed GNC in a good position. Was at 52 weeks high about a week ago following their announcement. (Coles and Woolworths did well but pulled back today, so I thought some caution here is also warranted with this one. The depth remains good, but that doesn't mean it won't turn. Watch it for a few days and see how it behaves before jumping in.

I saw another post of yours mentioning banks. There was an article I read about this last week. I've found it and will paste it here , not sure if this is against forum rules, I'm sure someone will tell me if it is....................(by the way, number one is consumer staples)

2. Banks​


Banks remain among the best ways to play rising inflation/interest rates. An expanding Net Interest Margin (NIM) as rates rise boosts bank earnings and dividend capacity. Of course, the NIM is only part of the story. A slowing global economy risks a spike in bad and doubtful debts, which is bad for banks.


For the past 12 months, I’ve preferred global banks, believing US and European banks are better priced than their Australian peers. The BetaShares Global Banks ETF – Currency Hedged – is a simple, cost-effective tool for global bank exposure.


Lately, my focus has swung more towards Australian banks. I’m concerned that the Russia-Ukraine war could be a headwind for Europe’s economy for longer than expected. Soaring US inflation (I don’t believe US inflation has peaked) and aggressive rate hikes by the US Fed are another concern.


Australia’s economy looks better placed than most. We won’t escape the growth/inflation problems overseas, but a sharp increase in bad debts here looks less likely. There is too much at stake in Australian housing for policymakers to stomach a wave of defaults by allowing rates to rise too far.


For Australian banks, the VanEck Australian Banks ETF appeals.
Click to expand...
Bank are good vs inflation but the current situation could trigger a liquidity squeeze which would not be negative, but actually wipe out banks.
Aka collapsed
So if just crisis oz banks are a good play
If worse, then it is absolute full loss risk.
I dabbed a bit in mqr to spread my risk
Europe is gone and dusted economically , even before a tactical nuke or a bioweapon release..obviously only by the bad Putin..a new evil as the US always need one..remember WMD....
About cereal, it is not only Ukraine which became key exporter, but Russia too nearly 40% of world exports.

Watch the video i posted on the reset thread to see how Putin planned his fight vs the US when Biden son was bribing Ukrainian..and the other way during Obama
Gold reserves, switch to keep a full stranglehold on agricultural exports and minerals.and the russians were a most numerous presence in SZ, China when i was there 5y ago.
What we are seeing is a slow speed compactor race with no real surprise...
So next stage is Fiat collapse.what types of shares will thrive then?

The EU farming is too damaged by subsidies issues and its green quest preventing fertilisers, pesticides and favorising bio to be able to bump productions,
and the starving african population moved there already and that could explode under famine stress.
Add a bad harvest expected this year there and Australia could do very well on the wheat front.
For the economy, you would be surprised at the level of damage a far left/labour coalition can do in short amount of time based on 1989's socialism experiences in Europe ?
We will have the answer there quickly
No easy time and as many I still bleed cash daily
 
eskys said:
The consumer staples have been holding up since the war in Ukraine, Covid and lockdown, so I follow that, qldfrog. Ukraine used to produce a lot of wheat and was a food bowl of Europe. That I thought, placed GNC in a good position. Was at 52 weeks high about a week ago following their announcement. (Coles and Woolworths did well but pulled back today, so I thought some caution here is also warranted with this one. The depth remains good, but that doesn't mean it won't turn. Watch it for a few days and see how it behaves before jumping in.

I saw another post of yours mentioning banks. There was an article I read about this last week. I've found it and will paste it here , not sure if this is against forum rules, I'm sure someone will tell me if it is....................(by the way, number one is consumer staples)

2. Banks​


Banks remain among the best ways to play rising inflation/interest rates. An expanding Net Interest Margin (NIM) as rates rise boosts bank earnings and dividend capacity. Of course, the NIM is only part of the story. A slowing global economy risks a spike in bad and doubtful debts, which is bad for banks.


For the past 12 months, I’ve preferred global banks, believing US and European banks are better priced than their Australian peers. The BetaShares Global Banks ETF – Currency Hedged – is a simple, cost-effective tool for global bank exposure.


Lately, my focus has swung more towards Australian banks. I’m concerned that the Russia-Ukraine war could be a headwind for Europe’s economy for longer than expected. Soaring US inflation (I don’t believe US inflation has peaked) and aggressive rate hikes by the US Fed are another concern.


Australia’s economy looks better placed than most. We won’t escape the growth/inflation problems overseas, but a sharp increase in bad debts here looks less likely. There is too much at stake in Australian housing for policymakers to stomach a wave of defaults by allowing rates to rise too far.


For Australian banks, the VanEck Australian Banks ETF appeals.
Click to expand...
but wasn't 2020 the time for that , i started buying MVB in 2017 with the latest parcel in October 2020

HOWEVER if you think the real meltdown is due ( not just another dip ) it certainly should be considered for a place on the watch-list

PS get to understand the distributions this ETF SOMETIMES pays three times a year ( instead of the usual twice yearly )

timing can be a big advantage on this one

but currency-hedged stuff not me , i have seen how that stuff can go wrong , and many of those international banks are an ongoing crime-scene , makes our banks look like kiddies at a kindergarten ( except MQG which definitely has it's 'big-boy pants' on )

and the EU they were a train-wreck ( and possibly the trigger of the Repo Madness ) in 2019 and earlier ( remember they had to install Draghi into the Italian leadership so the ECB/IMF would continue bailing it out )
 
qldfrog said:
Bank are good vs inflation but the current situation could trigger a liquidity squeeze which would not be negative, but actually wipe out banks.
Aka collapsed
So if just crisis oz banks are a good play
If worse, then it is absolute full loss risk.
I dabbed a bit in mqr to spread my risk
Europe is gone and dusted economically , even before a tactical nuke or a bioweapon release..obviously only by the bad Putin..a new evil as the US always need one..remember WMD....
About cereal, it is not only Ukraine which became key exporter, but Russia too nearly 40% of world exports.

Watch the video i posted on the reset thread to see how Putin planned his fight vs the US when Biden son was bribing Ukrainian..and the other way during Obama
Gold reserves, switch to keep a full stranglehold on agricultural exports and minerals.and the russians were a most numerous presence in SZ, China when i was there 5y ago.
What we are seeing is a slow speed compactor race with no real surprise...
So next stage is Fiat collapse.what types of shares will thrive then?

The EU farming is too damaged by subsidies issues and its green quest preventing fertilisers, pesticides and favorising bio to be able to bump productions,
and the starving african population moved there already and that could explode under famine stress.
Add a bad harvest expected this year there and Australia could do very well on the wheat front.
For the economy, you would be surprised at the level of damage a far left/labour coalition can do in short amount of time based on 1989's socialism experiences in Europe ?
We will have the answer there quickly
No easy time and as many I still bleed cash daily
Click to expand...
the banks ALREADY triggered a liquidity squeeze , that was what Repo Madness was about ( they wouldn't even lend to each other overnight or for 14 days , and TECHNICALLY they are secured loans )

why do you think all the Central Banks are buying sovereign bonds , because the big banks would rather not buy them , sure the pension funds buy some , as do international trading partners ( well at least until the froze/seized the Russian foreign reserves )

why would you take on sovereign risk ( on the US , EU or Japan ) at such pathetic returns
 
qldfrog said:
Bank are good vs inflation but the current situation could trigger a liquidity squeeze which would not be negative, but actually wipe out banks.
Aka collapsed
So if just crisis oz banks are a good play
If worse, then it is absolute full loss risk.
I dabbed a bit in mqr to spread my risk
Europe is gone and dusted economically , even before a tactical nuke or a bioweapon release..obviously only by the bad Putin..a new evil as the US always need one..remember WMD....
About cereal, it is not only Ukraine which became key exporter, but Russia too nearly 40% of world exports.

Watch the video i posted on the reset thread to see how Putin planned his fight vs the US when Biden son was bribing Ukrainian..and the other way during Obama
Gold reserves, switch to keep a full stranglehold on agricultural exports and minerals.and the russians were a most numerous presence in SZ, China when i was there 5y ago.
What we are seeing is a slow speed compactor race with no real surprise...
So next stage is Fiat collapse.what types of shares will thrive then?

The EU farming is too damaged by subsidies issues and its green quest preventing fertilisers, pesticides and favorising bio to be able to bump productions,
and the starving african population moved there already and that could explode under famine stress.
Add a bad harvest expected this year there and Australia could do very well on the wheat front.
For the economy, you would be surprised at the level of damage a far left/labour coalition can do in short amount of time based on 1989's socialism experiences in Europe ?
We will have the answer there quickly
No easy time and as many I still bleed cash daily
Click to expand...
You guys are deep thinkers, divs, frog. That amounts to a lot of work and reading to acquire the knowledge. Thank you for your posts.

I don't invest in international banks, only in our own....safer in my own backyard, but hard enough as it is. Good luck, market about to open. Iron ore down US$1.72
 
eskys said:
You guys are deep thinkers, divs, frog. That amounts to a lot of work and reading to acquire the knowledge. Thank you for your posts.

I don't invest in international banks, only in our own....safer in my own backyard, but hard enough as it is. Good luck, market about to open. Iron ore down US$1.72
Click to expand...
although i also hold VUK and KSL , yes i agree our currency is supported by commodity exports ( minerals , grain , wool , cotton and oil/gas ) our currency should resist becoming a total tragic
 
eskys said:
You guys are deep thinkers, divs, frog. That amounts to a lot of work and reading to acquire the knowledge. Thank you for your posts.

I don't invest in international banks, only in our own....safer in my own backyard, but hard enough as it is. Good luck, market about to open. Iron ore down US$1.72
Click to expand...
Probably overthinking more than deep thinking.
The share market is a game of lemmings not thinkers..
Go with the flow, just eject in time..so my play on trend systems ..removing ..some...thinking from trading
 
qldfrog said:
Probably overthinking more than deep thinking.
The share market is a game of lemmings not thinkers..
Go with the flow, just eject in time..so my play on trend systems ..removing ..some...thinking from trading
Click to expand...
A lot of money around, but that's slowly dwindling I guess. Lots more fear. CPI tonight.Picked up some BHP and GNC, missed FMG.(GNC special div 12 cents, total 24cents in July, but share price down a lot) When things go wrong with this lemming, trading turns into an investment :p
 

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