BUB - BUBS Australia

[nitron]

Investment strategy mistakes in the Chinese market are the main reason for the decline in stock prices, and it is time for a change.

 

[galumay]

The main reason for the decline in share price is that the business has never been profitable. Its not an investible business IMO. Most current shareholders probably victims of narrative speculation.

 

[nitron]

This is true, but the reason they are not profitable is because they invested in a2 Supreme formula and spent a lot of money to compete with the formula giants.To be the best company in the field of goat milk powder is the best choice.

 

[galumay]

Maybe thats true, but its still narrative speculation, the business is deeply unprofitable and performs poorly on every metric imaginable. Its not impossible it can be turned around, but unlikely IMO. Just so many better businesses on the ASX, better off cutting your losses and finding a better home for your capital.

 

[farmerge]

Maybe thats true, but its still narrative speculation, the business is deeply unprofitable and performs poorly on every metric imaginable. Its not impossible it can be turned around, but unlikely IMO. Just so many better businesses on the ASX, better off cutting your losses and finding a better home for your capital.

I did live in hope about BUBS but I am afraid it is on a sinking ship with no life support available.

 

[debtfree]

Yes I know it came up on a scan ...... a Report came out yesterday ...... a 17% price increase yesterday with good volume ..... it's closed the gap from November ....... It's trying it's best to turn the trend around ...... what's not to like. ...... I'll put in a chart and see what happens.

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[debtfree]

Bubs Australia reaps benefits of US growth strategy​

By Dominic McDonald

Bubs Australia (ASX:BUB), a maker of goat milk infant formula, organic infant food and toddler snacks, has demonstrated remarkable revenue growth on the back of a resilient US consumer, according to a US market update released last week.

It has been a timely result, sending the share price up over 40 per cent since the start of March. Prior to the announcement, the share price had been lagging for years, trading at a 90 per cent discount to 2019 and 2020 highs. COVID supply chain disruptions and breakdowns with the company's Chinese daigou distributor contributed to underperformance.

Bubs' revamped board has addressed issues weighing on the share price and has sought to unlock shareholder value with a new global approach. In less than 12 months into its ambitious growth strategy, management has achieved quarter on quarter growth of 8.3 per cent, with US sales for the quarter accounting for more than 50 per cent of revenue.

In contrast, Bubs has shown poor performance in China since signing a corporate daigou partnership in 2022, highlighting the potential capital losses when management does not quite execute. Chinese consumers are willing to pay a premium for high-quality Australian goods, and the rising middle class of China will continue to be a thematic in the future, but the challenge for Australian companies is how to meet that demand. The recent turnaround of competitor A2 Milk (ASX:A2M) demonstrates overseas demand for quality Australian infant products remains.

A change of focus towards the US offers Bubs a higher degree of operational safety and access to a local consumer that has been undeterred by the Fed's credit tightening. In the current climate, Bubs is well positioned to see a return in demand and sales growth, as the company offers a wide range of premium infant and toddler products, a segment of the market that is counter inflationary and should also benefit from the luxury goods outperformance of recent years. The broader non-discretionary consumer goods sector has significantly outperformed the market over the past two years as consumers are forced to absorb higher prices and investors look for an inflation hedge, namely the supermarket giants. Bubs has the capacity to fit within this investment trend.

Unfortunately, sizable losses from the company's China-based operations and subsequent capital raises occurred during a significant deterioration of macroeconomic conditions and a period of capital flight to companies with profitability and proven performance. The losses and cash injection required to execute Bubs' US market expansion destroyed investor confidence.

The fact that Bubs' financial missteps occurred at the height of economic panic in 2023 suggests that there may have been an overreaction from the market. At the start of March 2024, the company was trading at nearly 10 cents to the dollar from the share price in June 2020. The recent rally has shown the market interest in Bubs growing US-based revenues and moving away from risks associated with sales in China.

Bubs are operating within a non-discretionary consumer sector that has positive tailwinds as the inflation narrative continues. The company also has long-run growth prospects within the world's largest economy, as it proceeds along the pathway for FDA permanent access. The successful market pivot and discounted share price make Bubs a stock to watch in 2024.

 

[rcw1]

Good evening
30 September 2024 quarterly published 31 October 2024:

• October 2024 group gross revenue1 of $11.8m2, up ~121% on pcp (October 2023: $5.3m)
• October YTD FY25 group gross revenue of ~$36.0m2, up ~20% on pcp (October YTD FY24: $30.0m)
• Record weekly sales in USA bricks and mortar stores, exceeding US$1.3m3 in week ending 10 October 2024
• Bubs achieved Q1 FY25 group gross revenue of $24.2m (net revenue of $19.7m, slightly down 0.3% on prior corresponding period (pcp) (Q1 FY24: $24.3m)
• Gross profit margin of 43% in Q1 FY25 (up from 36% on pcp)
• Bubs continues to follow the FDA’s guidelines and make meaningful progress on its USA clinical trial and USA FDA permanent access, with 433 patients enrolled in the Growth Monitoring Study at the end of October 2024. FDA approval is expected in October 2025
• Q1 operating cash outflow of $4.9m (including $1.1m of one-off costs) with Q1 FY25 cash burn of $1.6m per month
• #1 domestic goat formula brand, holding 55% of domestic retail goat formula market
• $14.3m in total cash and cash equivalents plus $3.0m in undrawn debt facilities available as at 30 September 2024
• Reaffirm FY25 outlook guidance of $102m net revenue, gross margin > 40% and EBITDA breakeven

Regional Highlights for Q1 FY25

• USA gross revenue1 of $11.3m, down 3% on pcp (Q1 FY24: $11.6m)
• China gross revenue1 of $4.3m, up 15% on pcp (Q1 FY24: $3.8m)
• Australia gross revenue1 of $6.1m, down 19% on pcp (Q1 FY24: $7.6m)
• ROW gross revenue1 of $2.4m, up 86% on pcp (Q1 FY24: $1.3m)

According to the Form C there were 3.5 quarters of 'coin' left in the piggy banks. Another has 1/4 pasted, so 2.5 quarters left....

Daily

Not holding
Have traded

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[galumay]

All that waffle, but still massively loss making business, burnt another $5m in cash, as you say @rcw1, not much left in the purse now.

 

[farmerge]

Good evening
30 September 2024 quarterly published 31 October 2024:

• October 2024 group gross revenue1 of $11.8m2, up ~121% on pcp (October 2023: $5.3m)
• October YTD FY25 group gross revenue of ~$36.0m2, up ~20% on pcp (October YTD FY24: $30.0m)
• Record weekly sales in USA bricks and mortar stores, exceeding US$1.3m3 in week ending 10 October 2024
• Bubs achieved Q1 FY25 group gross revenue of $24.2m (net revenue of $19.7m, slightly down 0.3% on prior corresponding period (pcp) (Q1 FY24: $24.3m)
• Gross profit margin of 43% in Q1 FY25 (up from 36% on pcp)
• Bubs continues to follow the FDA’s guidelines and make meaningful progress on its USA clinical trial and USA FDA permanent access, with 433 patients enrolled in the Growth Monitoring Study at the end of October 2024. FDA approval is expected in October 2025
• Q1 operating cash outflow of $4.9m (including $1.1m of one-off costs) with Q1 FY25 cash burn of $1.6m per month
• #1 domestic goat formula brand, holding 55% of domestic retail goat formula market
• $14.3m in total cash and cash equivalents plus $3.0m in undrawn debt facilities available as at 30 September 2024
• Reaffirm FY25 outlook guidance of $102m net revenue, gross margin > 40% and EBITDA breakeven

Regional Highlights for Q1 FY25

• USA gross revenue1 of $11.3m, down 3% on pcp (Q1 FY24: $11.6m)
• China gross revenue1 of $4.3m, up 15% on pcp (Q1 FY24: $3.8m)
• Australia gross revenue1 of $6.1m, down 19% on pcp (Q1 FY24: $7.6m)
• ROW gross revenue1 of $2.4m, up 86% on pcp (Q1 FY24: $1.3m)

According to the Form C there were 3.5 quarters of 'coin' left in the piggy banks. Another has 1/4 pasted, so 2.5 quarters left....

Daily
View attachment 191477

View attachment 191476

Not holding
Have traded

Kind regards
rcw1

BUBS for me is a blast from the past when on the now defunct site. Hven't been within a bull's roar of BUBS for some time, as I only saw it going oh so slowly forward.
I did make a little bit of profit in the time I was trading it but finished up then as is now, not for me.

 

[qldfrog]

BUBS for me is a blast from the past when on the now defunct site. Hven't been within a bull's roar of BUBS for some time, as I only saw it going oh so slowly forward.
I did make a little bit of profit in the time I was trading it but finished up then as is now, not for me.

The graphs by mr @rcw1 say it all .
If you can not even stay flat in a world of memes and shitcoins with CBA PE flirting with 30, this business is imho only a placeholder for an asx code, soon on the market for a new owner.
Can you short a company which actually get delisted?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

• Record weekly sales in USA bricks and mortar stores, exceeding US$1.3m in week ending 10 October 2024

- the average lemonade stall would turn over this much, without the overheads

 

[rcw1]

Good afternoon
Nice announcement today (22/01/25), the 31 December 2024 quarter, kindly find attached.

Short end of the stick:

• BUB reported a turnaround in first-half earnings, with EBITDA hitting $2.9 million after a $6.8 million loss in the same period last year;
• $17.2m in total cash and cash equivalents plus $5.0m in undrawn debt facilities available as at 31 December 2024 ... 4 million cash burn; and
• 22.45% gain in SP, in real terms up $0.022, today (22/01/25)

Good evening
30 September 2024 quarterly published 31 October 2024:

• October 2024 group gross revenue1 of $11.8m2, up ~121% on pcp (October 2023: $5.3m)
• October YTD FY25 group gross revenue of ~$36.0m2, up ~20% on pcp (October YTD FY24: $30.0m)
• Record weekly sales in USA bricks and mortar stores, exceeding US$1.3m3 in week ending 10 October 2024
• Bubs achieved Q1 FY25 group gross revenue of $24.2m (net revenue of $19.7m, slightly down 0.3% on prior corresponding period (pcp) (Q1 FY24: $24.3m)
• Gross profit margin of 43% in Q1 FY25 (up from 36% on pcp)
• Bubs continues to follow the FDA’s guidelines and make meaningful progress on its USA clinical trial and USA FDA permanent access, with 433 patients enrolled in the Growth Monitoring Study at the end of October 2024. FDA approval is expected in October 2025
• Q1 operating cash outflow of $4.9m (including $1.1m of one-off costs) with Q1 FY25 cash burn of $1.6m per month
• #1 domestic goat formula brand, holding 55% of domestic retail goat formula market
• $14.3m in total cash and cash equivalents plus $3.0m in undrawn debt facilities available as at 30 September 2024
• Reaffirm FY25 outlook guidance of $102m net revenue, gross margin > 40% and EBITDA breakeven

Regional Highlights for Q1 FY25

• USA gross revenue1 of $11.3m, down 3% on pcp (Q1 FY24: $11.6m)
• China gross revenue1 of $4.3m, up 15% on pcp (Q1 FY24: $3.8m)
• Australia gross revenue1 of $6.1m, down 19% on pcp (Q1 FY24: $7.6m)
• ROW gross revenue1 of $2.4m, up 86% on pcp (Q1 FY24: $1.3m)

According to the Form C there were 3.5 quarters of 'coin' left in the piggy banks. Another has 1/4 pasted, so 2.5 quarters left....

Daily
View attachment 191477

View attachment 191476

Not holding
Have traded

Kind regards
rcw1