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Brexit OUT of EU: What happens now?

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moXJO said:
Brilliantly played. EU is dead......
Click to expand...
This is what the EU are worried about, if the U.K move out, those left will have a bigger burden carrying the leaners.
It wont be long, before the Germans start and complaining.IMO
 
Trump fumbled buying Denmark but China is buying PNG , Oz, Pakistan and Greece. EU may be good value after British decolonisation.
 
The Age Reports today

What’s next for Brexit? Six possible outcomes
https://www.theage.com.au/world/eur...it-six-possible-outcomes-20190830-p52min.html

London: British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's decision to suspend Parliament next month has brought a fresh wave of consternation and confusion to Britain's already chaotic efforts to leave the European Union, while still leaving wide open the question of where Britain will end up on October 31, the day the country is scheduled to leave the bloc.

Johnson says he would rather Britain leaves with a reworked Brexit deal but, failing that, it would be out the door anyway. His opponents have sworn to remove any possibility of leaving without a deal, which they say would be economically calamitous.

Adding to the confusion, what happens next depends not just on the battle between the Prime Minister and his opponents in Parliament but also on the flexibility of the unyielding European Union leadership and, down the line, quite possibly on a British court.

Following are six of the most likely outcomes leading up to October 31.

1. MPs take charge

Members of Parliament don't agree about much on Brexit, but a majority oppose what they consider a destructive "no-deal" departure and would like to rule it out of bounds. By suspending Parliament for several crucial weeks, Johnson has made this hard. But he has also galvanised his opponents into action, and Jo Swinson, leader of the Liberal Democrats, hinted in a BBC interview that they may copy Johnson in using an arcane procedure — she did not specify what — to stop a no-deal Brexit. So don't count them out quite yet.

2. Parliament's nuclear option

If they fail to legislate against a no-deal exit, legislators can resort to the ultimate weapon: a motion of no confidence, ousting Johnson from office. Currently, they do not appear to have the votes to pull this off. But even if they did, it might not solve their problem.

The law calls for the formation of a new government within two weeks or a general election. One option might be a caretaker administration that would presumably request another Brexit delay to afford time to hold an election. The problem is opposition leaders cannot agree on a caretaker prime minister. Jeremy Corbyn, the natural choice as leader of the Labour Party, is too left-wing and, as a lifelong critic of the European Union, is distrusted by determined opponents of Brexit.

Many would prefer a more centrist figure — perhaps the former Conservative Cabinet minister Kenneth Clarke — as the caretaker. That would require Corbyn to agree to stand aside, because a no-confidence motion could not succeed without his support.

And even if it did, Johnson has another trick up his sleeve, one that his supporters have repeatedly telegraphed: he could refuse to resign and then schedule a general election for November, in effect forcing through a no-deal Brexit. Dirty pool, perhaps, it would leave deep scars in the body politic. But there is nothing in the relevant law, the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, requiring the prime minister to step down immediately.

3. A snap election

If MPs should succeed in quickly passing legislation outlawing a no-deal Brexit before Parliament is suspended, Johnson could try to outflank them again by calling a general election. This would be risky, but he needs to hold one soon anyway because he has a working majority in Parliament of just one seat, a margin far too small for comfort for any government. If there is an election soon, Johnson is likely to run as a champion of the people against a Parliament intent on obstructing the pro-Brexit outcome of the 2016 referendum. One theory is that the election could take place October 17, allowing Johnson — if he wins — to go to the European Union summit the following day with a fresh mandate.

But there could be a significant roadblock. To call an election, Johnson would need the support of two-thirds of the House of Commons, so he would need opposition votes. The Labour Party wants an election but might demur if it thinks that, instead of a quick vote, Johnson wants to delay it until after the Brexit deadline.

4. Leaving the EU with a deal

No one seems to think this option has much chance. After all, Parliament voted three times against a Brexit agreement negotiated by Johnson's predecessor, Theresa May, and the EU is stubbornly refusing to reopen negotiations. But don't rule it out.

The critical date is October 17-18, when the bloc's leaders meet, providing an opportunity for last-minute negotiations (which is practically the only way things get done there). If a potentially disastrous no-deal Brexit is still a possibility, Johnson can force the heads of European leaders to get a revised deal, then force his lawmakers to get the measure passed. "Either accept my new, revised, Brexit agreement," he will say, or we are headed for the dreaded no-deal exit.

5. A no-deal Brexit

While it is widely thought that Johnson is using the threat of an unruly exit as a negotiating tactic, it is also possible that he actually means what he says. If European leaders offer too few concessions for his liking, he might plow ahead with a no-deal exit and, given the limited parliamentary time to stop it, he might succeed. It is, after all, the default option. That would allow Johnson to unite Brexit supporters behind him in a general election either late in 2019 or in 2020. The risk, however, is that the predictions of economic chaos after a no-deal Brexit are borne out, making an election unwinnable for him (and, if things are bad enough, possibly for the Conservative Party for years to come).

6. The courts decide

There are already three cases being considered against Johnson's decision to suspend Parliament. Experts think these are unlikely to succeed — although Gina Miller, an anti-Brexit campaigner, defied such predictions when she won a case against May's efforts to bypass Parliament when starting exit talks. She is trying again now.

But there may be other opportunities to go to court. If Johnson refuses to resign after losing a vote of confidence and tries to push a general election beyond the Halloween deadline, a legal challenge would be likely. Then it could be judges, not MPs, who have the decisive voice in Britain's biggest peacetime decision in decades.

228
 
At 93 , HM has all her marbles and may need them if her judges tell her to change her mind.
“If you can keep your head when all about you. Are losing theirs and blaming it on you, If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you, But make allowance for their doubting too;!”
But she's from Germany and may well take a firm hand to the whip.
 
bigdog said:
The Age Reports today

What’s next for Brexit? Six possible outcomes
https://www.theage.com.au/world/eur...it-six-possible-outcomes-20190830-p52min.html

London: British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's decision to suspend Parliament next month has brought a fresh wave of consternation and confusion to Britain's already chaotic efforts to leave the European Union, while still leaving wide open the question of where Britain will end up on October 31, the day the country is scheduled to leave the bloc.

Johnson says he would rather Britain leaves with a reworked Brexit deal but, failing that, it would be out the door anyway. His opponents have sworn to remove any possibility of leaving without a deal, which they say would be economically calamitous.

Adding to the confusion, what happens next depends not just on the battle between the Prime Minister and his opponents in Parliament but also on the flexibility of the unyielding European Union leadership and, down the line, quite possibly on a British court.

Following are six of the most likely outcomes leading up to October 31.

1. MPs take charge

Members of Parliament don't agree about much on Brexit, but a majority oppose what they consider a destructive "no-deal" departure and would like to rule it out of bounds. By suspending Parliament for several crucial weeks, Johnson has made this hard. But he has also galvanised his opponents into action, and Jo Swinson, leader of the Liberal Democrats, hinted in a BBC interview that they may copy Johnson in using an arcane procedure — she did not specify what — to stop a no-deal Brexit. So don't count them out quite yet.

2. Parliament's nuclear option

If they fail to legislate against a no-deal exit, legislators can resort to the ultimate weapon: a motion of no confidence, ousting Johnson from office. Currently, they do not appear to have the votes to pull this off. But even if they did, it might not solve their problem.

The law calls for the formation of a new government within two weeks or a general election. One option might be a caretaker administration that would presumably request another Brexit delay to afford time to hold an election. The problem is opposition leaders cannot agree on a caretaker prime minister. Jeremy Corbyn, the natural choice as leader of the Labour Party, is too left-wing and, as a lifelong critic of the European Union, is distrusted by determined opponents of Brexit.

Many would prefer a more centrist figure — perhaps the former Conservative Cabinet minister Kenneth Clarke — as the caretaker. That would require Corbyn to agree to stand aside, because a no-confidence motion could not succeed without his support.

And even if it did, Johnson has another trick up his sleeve, one that his supporters have repeatedly telegraphed: he could refuse to resign and then schedule a general election for November, in effect forcing through a no-deal Brexit. Dirty pool, perhaps, it would leave deep scars in the body politic. But there is nothing in the relevant law, the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, requiring the prime minister to step down immediately.

3. A snap election

If MPs should succeed in quickly passing legislation outlawing a no-deal Brexit before Parliament is suspended, Johnson could try to outflank them again by calling a general election. This would be risky, but he needs to hold one soon anyway because he has a working majority in Parliament of just one seat, a margin far too small for comfort for any government. If there is an election soon, Johnson is likely to run as a champion of the people against a Parliament intent on obstructing the pro-Brexit outcome of the 2016 referendum. One theory is that the election could take place October 17, allowing Johnson — if he wins — to go to the European Union summit the following day with a fresh mandate.

But there could be a significant roadblock. To call an election, Johnson would need the support of two-thirds of the House of Commons, so he would need opposition votes. The Labour Party wants an election but might demur if it thinks that, instead of a quick vote, Johnson wants to delay it until after the Brexit deadline.

4. Leaving the EU with a deal

No one seems to think this option has much chance. After all, Parliament voted three times against a Brexit agreement negotiated by Johnson's predecessor, Theresa May, and the EU is stubbornly refusing to reopen negotiations. But don't rule it out.

The critical date is October 17-18, when the bloc's leaders meet, providing an opportunity for last-minute negotiations (which is practically the only way things get done there). If a potentially disastrous no-deal Brexit is still a possibility, Johnson can force the heads of European leaders to get a revised deal, then force his lawmakers to get the measure passed. "Either accept my new, revised, Brexit agreement," he will say, or we are headed for the dreaded no-deal exit.

5. A no-deal Brexit

While it is widely thought that Johnson is using the threat of an unruly exit as a negotiating tactic, it is also possible that he actually means what he says. If European leaders offer too few concessions for his liking, he might plow ahead with a no-deal exit and, given the limited parliamentary time to stop it, he might succeed. It is, after all, the default option. That would allow Johnson to unite Brexit supporters behind him in a general election either late in 2019 or in 2020. The risk, however, is that the predictions of economic chaos after a no-deal Brexit are borne out, making an election unwinnable for him (and, if things are bad enough, possibly for the Conservative Party for years to come).

6. The courts decide

There are already three cases being considered against Johnson's decision to suspend Parliament. Experts think these are unlikely to succeed — although Gina Miller, an anti-Brexit campaigner, defied such predictions when she won a case against May's efforts to bypass Parliament when starting exit talks. She is trying again now.

But there may be other opportunities to go to court. If Johnson refuses to resign after losing a vote of confidence and tries to push a general election beyond the Halloween deadline, a legal challenge would be likely. Then it could be judges, not MPs, who have the decisive voice in Britain's biggest peacetime decision in decades.

228
Click to expand...
Thanks, a reasonable summary BD. I think Britons realize there will be some short term pain, but they think it's worth it for the long term gain. The ones outside of London anyway, you know like, England.

I think many saw Teresa May as Chamberlain in a pants suit. Not a high point of English diplomacy.

Three years they've waited. Three years of the Establishment's procrastination
 
Booming Britain_Brexit_2016_20.jpg


Source:
World Economic Forum, in collaboration with The Financial Times - 22 Feb 2016
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/02/what-are-the-economic-consequences-of-brexit
What are the economic consequences of Brexit?
"...Booming Britain
What proponents say
Patrick Minford of Cardiff Business School argues that: “In the long term, Brexit will herald a major growth-boosting period, as the UK breaks free of the over-mighty EU with its protectionist mindset and establishes free trade and intelligent regulation aimed at UK economic interests.
In a similar vein, Leave EU, one of the two main groups campaigning for Brexit, talks of freeing Britain from the EU influence that “prevents the UK from taking full advantage of a surging global economy [and] capitalising on its unrivalled influence throughout the rest of the world”...."

And yes it's one of three scenarios discussed. But Remainers would actually have to do some research to work that out!

 
"UK from taking full advantage of a surging global economy [and] capitalising on its unrivalled influence" .
That can't be today's world. Must be Sydney news: "Walter changed the title after 940 editions on 1 January 1788 to The Times. The Times used contributions from significant figures in the fields of politics, science, literature, and the arts to build its reputation. "
 
It looks like the monied within the Conservatives are joining with the LDP and Labour to try to avoid a hard Brexit.

If an election does occur it will become a proxy for Brexit.
At the moment the polling is as below. Looks like Boris would win. Who knows these days though.
aS-WO8-Q50S5A4ZoZc-gyA.jpg
 
A dark place indeed. The British PM can't actually call an election unilaterally, unlike here.
So the parliament could become an utter rabble.

But if there is an election, the Conservatives would still need to reach an accommodation with Farage's Brexit Party, because it's first past the post, unlike here. In which case the Conservatives would streak home.
 
What a schmozzle. There will be some interesting internal moves in both major parties imo. Worrying times... A nationalist government and populace and a globalist parliament.

Can't see this ending well.
 
From what I'm hearing from family in the U.K, the wealthy want to stay in, the workers want out. Interesting to see the outcome.
 
wayneL said:
The Uk is a write off now.

Officially a Zombie nation, can't believe the open treason.
Click to expand...
It is strange the virtue signalers are applauding the Hong Kong demonstrators, for defending democracy and defending those in the U.K who are going against the democratic process.
Shows how much power the press has, or how easily peoples opinions are moulded.

Even Stan Grant can see the irony.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09...ow-democracy-assailed-from-all-sides/11479000
 

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