BPT - Beach Energy

[jbocker]

Looking Good JB. We both had this winner in CY2019 competition didn't we ?

I also had BPT as one of the possible candidates for the CY2020 competition out of around 10 possible picks. Then I crossed out the companies that were below 10c and the large cap billion+ companies including BPT to leave me with 4 small caps. Starting to think whether crossing out BPT was such a good idea ?

Good thing that I have bought some BPT shares for the Speculative Stock Portfolio, as I expect another growth year for BPT as long as Oil prices hold up this year.

I picked it in 2020. Its earning lots of cash, I don't think its a cash cow that will be hunted down as there are lots of shares, hopefully it will buy some successful company, fields or prospects, and or shell out some dividends. As @So_Cynical suggests maybe even a share buy back is possible.

 

[aus_trader]

I picked it in 2020. Its earning lots of cash, I don't think its a cash cow that will be hunted down as there are lots of shares, hopefully it will buy some successful company, fields or prospects, and or shell out some dividends. As @So_Cynical suggests maybe even a share buy back is possible.

Yes I saw you re-picked it for this year's competition. I think it'll be a winner again, good luck

I am glad I also got some skin in the game in my spec portfolio. Below is some interesting history on Beach Energy that was previously posted in the spec portfolio:

 

[barney]

Thanks Bock and Aus … Back on the watchlist

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Beach is now $2.80. It has never been this high (in latest growth incarnation).

I wonder if Norway's opening its third largest field (Johan Sverdup, likely to produce more than 600,000 bpd) recently, while being at forefront of disinvesting "to combat climate change", is giving mixed signals about demand?

 

[So_Cynical]

Beach is now $2.80. It has never been this high (in latest growth incarnation)

Fair to say that the company has been re-rated at $2+ Beach can't really go backwards from the current incarnation -what it has become.

 

[jbocker]

When do you think it will crack the $3 mark? Its getting close.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Street Talk in the AFR is suggesting there's a deal looming that Waitsia (50% Beach) will supply domestic gas and NW Shelf gas go for export

Observers suggest the fact Waitsia has sold little or no gas into the domestic market is a sign that it is holding all its capacity for a monster deal with the North West Shelf.

If a deal did transpire it could hit domestic gas prices, as the market seems to have pegged Waitsia gas to be sold locally rather than internationally. This could lead to a re-rating of players in the Perth Basin, especially those with volumes that supply Pilbara-based LNG producers

I like it

 

[aus_trader]

I was punting on a few stocks that I thought may do well from the East Coast gas shortage that was a theme from more than a year ago. Those penny punts didn't work out well as can be seen in the Speculative Stock Portfolio but Beach has been in and out of that portfolio and it has done well.

It looks like it's one of the big Oil/Gas plays that may actually be able to benefit from that Gas shortage going into the future, so glad to be currently holding BPT.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I was punting on a few stocks that I thought may do well from the East Coast gas shortage that was a theme from more than a year ago. Those penny punts didn't work out well...

It looks like it's one of the big Oil/Gas plays that may actually be able to benefit from that Gas shortage going into the future...

and of course the others likely to benefit are Strike SRK and Warrego WGO:

the market seems to have pegged Waitsia gas to be sold locally rather than internationally. This could lead to a re-rating of players in the Perth Basin..

Mind you, the "East Coast gas shortage" was a bit of rent seeking, by industry. Would have succeeded with a Shorten Govt. To some extent, the Curtis Island plants do suck a lot out of Qld CSG and some of the fairways are coming up short, but if government didn't interfere the outcomes might have been arrived at with less argy-bargy.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

and of course the others likely to benefit are Strike SRK and Warrego WGO

*and STX for Strike would work even better

 

[Trav.]

I like the setup here on BPT and hopefully it will take on the $3 mark soon and then some.

Higher Highs & Higher Lows over the last couple of months so one to watch closely.

 

[Trav.]

Ascending triangle pattern was broken during the week but managed a mini recovery.

Still on watch list but not as bullish now.

 

[aus_trader]

Ascending triangle pattern was broken during the week but managed a mini recovery.

Still on watch list but not as bullish now.

View attachment 100058

The problem is the big sell off in Crude Oil. There is key support just above US$50 that should be watched:

 

[Trav.]

Signs of life in BPT again. Low hit ~$2.05 on the 14/2 and currently $2.21.

Not held but definitely tempted to have a trade here, back on watch list and looking for entry.

 

[jbocker]

Bought some today. Looking at WPL too.

 

[rnr]

Given the latest comments by @Trav. and @jbocker I decided to post some thoughts on where Beach Energy is at currently!
QUALIFICATION:- These are just my thoughts and could well be way off track and I do not hold.

BPT would appear to be in a 5 wave downward move ( waves 1 to 4 having formed) with wave 5 destined to end in a zone of reasonably strong support.
That support could likely result in an a-b-c wave move higher (providing a low risk entry).
Lets see what pans out. Unfilled Gaps are shown on the chart.

 

[jbocker]

Didn't really get what you mean @rnr so I just read around a little and I think you may be talking about Elliot wave theory. (Apologies if that is a statement from the 'bleeding obvious' or conversely 'way off rails'). From the little I read it appears I may have bought a little early and I certainly hope wave 3 was THE big one in this case, and not wave 5. So I probably should have waited to see if it falls to the $1.90 area and then bought. I did also see something about the ABC waves. I hope A and C are big upwards mumma's.
Am I sort of on track?
Thanks for the chart.

 

[Skate]

Bought some today. Looking at WPL too.

@jbocker would you care to explain the motivation for the buy?

I probably should have waited to see if it falls to the $1.90 area and then bought.

Hmmm....

Reminder to myself
Buying good companies at the wrong time can be detrimental to my wealth.

Skate.

 

[rnr]

Didn't really get what you mean @rnr so I just read around a little and I think you may be talking about Elliot wave theory. (Apologies if that is a statement from the 'bleeding obvious' or conversely 'way off rails'). From the little I read it appears I may have bought a little early and I certainly hope wave 3 was THE big one in this case, and not wave 5. So I probably should have waited to see if it falls to the $1.90 area and then bought. I did also see something about the ABC waves. I hope A and C are big upwards mumma's.
Am I sort of on track?
Thanks for the chart.

Hi @jbocker

Well researched and yes you are on track with what I was thinking.
Now we just need to see if our thoughts are in sync with the market!

Cheers,
Rob

 

[jbocker]

@jbocker would you care to explain the motivation for the buy?

Hi Skate. I already hold BPT with a fair profit even at todays price. I like the gas/oil game, grew up with it. I offloaded several poor and stagnant performers and wanted to hold it an a stock I am more comfortable with, and BPT has retraced a fair bit recently. I wanted to simplify my holdings.

@jbocker would you care to explain the motivation for the buy?
Hmmm....
Reminder to myself
Buying good companies at the wrong time can be detrimental to my wealth.
Skate.

Clearly I am not a chartist and my comment was a interpretation stab after a LITTLE research of what rnr chart was showing us (me).

As a final note I am in a turmoil of thought about exiting share investments altogether. I am far too emotive as an investor, probably because I am passionate about potential new good business and love to invest in such. But it is a fickle game and did my best to support the Green Energy start ups initially.
I am not a chartist and I wont put the energy and time required at this time in life, but it does fascinate me when I see some charting, but to be truthful emotion is too big a blocker for me to overcome before I started making any headway being a chartist.

Could add some more but my pants are down far enough.