BPT - Beach Energy
- Thread starter Bonk
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ummm, I didnt see any obvious weakness there, someone said they have 1.04B shares, but I don't see why this is a weakness.
p/e ratio: 11.97
p/b ratio: 0.57
eps: 6.2
dividend: 3.9%
sales: -12.8% 2009 is $0.56/share, 2008 is 0.65/share.
cashflow: -24.9% 2009 is 16.8cents/share, 2008 is 22.3cents/share.
The portfolio is not perfect, but it is not a "dog", right?
p/e ratio: 11.97
p/b ratio: 0.57
eps: 6.2
dividend: 3.9%
sales: -12.8% 2009 is $0.56/share, 2008 is 0.65/share.
cashflow: -24.9% 2009 is 16.8cents/share, 2008 is 22.3cents/share.
The portfolio is not perfect, but it is not a "dog", right?
When I looked at it there were some very strange adjustments to get to normlised earnings for the PE ratio. So not sure I would rely on a p/e of 11.97.
There are some very valid reasons why the "growth" to a billion plus shares on issue is a concern. The most obvious of course is that eps get diluted into smaller chunks than previously but the most telling, IMO, is that to get there, BPT has had a series of cash issues in recent years, the most recent at $1.43 if memory serves me correctly. The proceeds were used to buy out some hedges inherited from the Delhi takeover. Unfortunately, this was done at the height of the oil price spike " to take advantage of current high oil prices". It's all history now but the boom didn't last and buying out this cover was a "loss/loss" in that the $50m was wasted and the cover was no longer there!
So there are a lot of disgruntled shareholders still out there with the SP in the low 70c's!
None of this should concern a potential investor of course but there are other issues to consider. Be careful with historical NPAT, EPS and P/E figures. There's been a lot of asset sales in recent years which can't be repeated, eg selling down the BMG field interest - which in view of recent developments looks to have been a good move - selling off their CSG interest at Tipton West - the jury's still out on that.
BPT are placing a lot of faith in their unconventional gas resource - not a reserve - and in being able to develop it at an economic cost. They also have highly risky interests offshore and the market may worry that too much cash gets spent chasing these.
I don't regard BPT as a dog by any means. But I don't see any compulsion to invest while the SP stagnates. Personally, I've sold down my holding over the last year or so and will wait for some strength in the SP before considering adding to it again.
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Blue - surely it is only a concern IF the dilution doesn't earn - if it does the EPS holds or as intended increases the EPS.
Another way of looking at this is that if I have a 100 shares and do not incease my holding when the co raises money and doubles the no shares on issue, I have not lost if their EPS and DPS (and price of course) hold or increase.
DPS and PPS being the two tangibles - EPS an indicator
atm EPS, DPS have positive growth indications, and PPS? - well back to 70c is a long term support level for this co so a buying op for many
I do not hold
Fair point and I must admit that I havn't put BPT's "normalised" earnings to the test there. There have been several chunky profits from asset sales in successive years - 10% of BMG; another 10% of BMG; interest in CSG - which tends to muddy the waters.
The market clearly doesn't think that the new capital is being put to profitable use. The market may be wrong here but I don't see any reason to take it on while the SP trades sideways.
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Don't trust a single thing that Mr Market says, He is a manic Drepressive who acts only on short term information.
Mr Market is there to serve you, not instruct you.
Don't trust a single thing that Mr Market says, He is a manic Drepressive who acts only on short term information.
Mr Market is there to serve you, not instruct you.
Each to his own but paying heed to Mr Market in this instance got me out of most of my BPT at an average SP of a shade under $1. ( I must admit that I'm not always this disciplined!)
I'm happy to stay out until an uptrend develops.
listened to the boardroom radio broadast for the December 2009 half year results. Not very exciting for short term but there does seem to be some possible big things coming within next 3 to 5 years. I'm no genius investor of course but I think I'm going to sit on my holdings until around 2014 lol
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Sold all my beach shares (around 300,000 in total) and have since doubled my money on paper. Don't know why they are going sideways for so long but i am very happy I made the decision to cast them adrift.
Well Done Mr Prozac. I have been dithering about doing the same with my Beach and CSL, both of which havent done a thing for 2 years.
When I think of all the things I should have done in that time!
Ah hindsight. I've actually been a bit encouraged by the noises / releases BPT has been doing of late, making some progress in Africa, but more so by the shale-gas potential in the Cooper Basin. They are now no longer at the top of my list to sell. Plans and ideas are fine but I think it will be a case of "show me the money" or reserves before the market puts much value on these announcements
. I've actually been a bit encouraged by the noises / releases BPT has been doing of late, making some progress in Africa, but more so by the shale-gas potential in the Cooper Basin. They are now no longer at the top of my list to sell. Plans and ideas are fine but I think it will be a case of "show me the money" or reserves before the market puts much value on these announcements
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
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Is everyone asleep at the wheel here? Beach has started drilling into a massive shale deposit in the Cooper basin looking to be the first (i think) Aussie energy company to find commercial quantity's of shale gas in Australia.
Now i haven't been following BPT for long and don't know how inclined they are to self promote, but it do like what i have read about this deposit...and that's the first thing i like about it, that its a deposit..so its not like its a lucky dip drilling exercise, they already know the shale is there and they know there's lots of it.
Things to like about Beach
Some presentations etc.
Cooper Basin Shale Gas Review, Oct 2010
http://bpt.irmau.com/IRM/Company/Sh...ageName=Amended Cooper Basin Shale Gas Review
BBR presentation from April this year.
http://www.brr.com.au/event/65351/cooper-basin-shale-gas
Another neat little overall view video.
http://www.brr.com.au/event/67301/partner/brr
The 2 year chart show lots and lots of support at current price (66 - 69) and would suggest the recent short down trend is over, now consolidating sideways and ready to take off...chart also suggests BPT gives many in and out (easy 15 > 17%) opportunity's, and thus great for a position builder like myself...in today big time at 0.67
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Now i haven't been following BPT for long and don't know how inclined they are to self promote, but it do like what i have read about this deposit...and that's the first thing i like about it, that its a deposit..so its not like its a lucky dip drilling exercise, they already know the shale is there and they know there's lots of it.
Things to like about Beach
- Nappamerri Trough shale has potential to host 200 Tcf (Gorgon 40 Tcf)
- Nappamerri Trough shale measures 150> meters thick over 10.000> km².
- Nappamerri Trough shale has many similarity's to successful US shale plays.
- Nappamerri Trough shale located in the middle of Cooper basin gas infrastructure.
- Nappamerri Trough shale has direct pipeline access to east coast markets.
- BPT market cap has grown from 15 mill to 700> mill over the last 8 years.
- Number 6 or 7 Oil/Gas producer in Australia...positive cash flow & reserves.
- Has a 7 year unbroken history of twice yearly dividend payments.
- No debt...strong revenues.
Some presentations etc.
Cooper Basin Shale Gas Review, Oct 2010
http://bpt.irmau.com/IRM/Company/Sh...ageName=Amended Cooper Basin Shale Gas Review
BBR presentation from April this year.
http://www.brr.com.au/event/65351/cooper-basin-shale-gas
Another neat little overall view video.
http://www.brr.com.au/event/67301/partner/brr
The 2 year chart show lots and lots of support at current price (66 - 69) and would suggest the recent short down trend is over, now consolidating sideways and ready to take off...chart also suggests BPT gives many in and out (easy 15 > 17%) opportunity's, and thus great for a position builder like myself...in today big time at 0.67
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Attachments
Well Old Blue, I wish I could say I'm waiting for them to take off, as I've been on this slippery slide since those $1.46 days. The company sure is good at pushing it's own barrow and all of the projects they have going sound like it is a gold mine. But from my perspective now, I'd like to see a decent upwards and consistent trend occur before I'd invest any more in BPT.
Todays' volume is the highest since February on a big drop as well.
Todays' volume is the highest since February on a big drop as well.
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
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I'm tempted to buy more but that would elevate BPT to my biggest single holding and make it over 11% of my portfolio, and with a portfolio of 20 stocks....that's not acceptable.
I mite take a little re-position if it drops below 0.59 .. i cant help but think that in 6 months time, this dip and the last one will look like the perfect entry's.
I mite take a little re-position if it drops below 0.59 .. i cant help but think that in 6 months time, this dip and the last one will look like the perfect entry's.
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I don't think there is anything wrong with having certain stocks over weight inside your portfolio.
I have 11 stocks currently, and my biggest holding makes up 55% of my holding.
Warren buffett recommends that investors who are willing to dedicate time and effort to their investing need not hold more than 6 companies and 50% should be in their favourite.
