BPT - Beach Energy

[qldfrog]

Michael Gable thinks oil stocks could take off. Obviously there will be individual variation. He is keen on Woodside:

"Is this the next sector to take off?
"I recently wrote about how share markets could see some large rotations occur once the US Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates.
Two weeks ago I made a quick video explaining that it was a matter of when not if commodities start a huge rally.
So what is the next sector that is due to take off? Are we about to see a massive short squeeze in oil stocks?"

BPT Held
Holding

On paper WDS should be the one, but i find it hard to go back significantly.. from past experience.not that they will not ride the wave as any oiler will.
I have nevertheless a small exposure to WDS, a painful much bigger to BPT..was too early..and a nice OOO and FUEL ETFs packet

 

[So_Cynical]

on fundamentals , it should trend lower , on a slowing economy and higher inflation ( higher costs )

however it DOES have several capped wells ( waiting for infrastructure and a profitable scenario for those wells )
my av. SP is 52.5 cents , as i was buying from 76.5 cents down to 40 vents in 2015/2016

i start to find BPT interesting when it dips below 80 cents

The inflation feeds straight into the end product so i really dont think inflation is relevant, yep Beach have a **** load of capped wells just waiting - this kind of cracks me up every time the media carry's on about gas shortages, Beach may have more gas in capped wells than it does in production wells.

 

[finicky]

a painful much bigger to BPT..

@qldfrog yes, I was too early into BPT too following on from a lengthy essay by Greg Canavan: 'Not Zero' sic, and his successive BUY recs for Beach. He first tipped it in January 2021. Anyway I don't mind my manageable holding and just hope that Waitsia pays off. I think Greg still believes higher production lies ahead but has a HOLD on it currently. By the way he has also tipped OccIdental Petroleum (OXY) on the NYSE for anyone who ventures into foreign markets. Isn't OXY the one that Buffett has been buying? On the ASX he is also tipping Karoon Energy (KAR) still a BUY and Origin (ORG) Hold. Woodside is a BUY and then there are his coal stocks mentioned on other threads.
My average on BPT : $1.51
Edit: just checked out the long term chart of OXY. Currently at $55 but crashed as far as $10 in the year of the CCP Wuhan pandemic, 2020.

 

[finicky]

It's almost patriotic to own this share.

Held
Holding

 

[Ferret]

I wondered why it was down 5% today.

A Perth basin Site Visit presentation was released and included this slide advising of more problems with the Waitsia project.

 

[finicky]

Re Waitsia delay.
Excerpt from Greg Canavan's fat tail investment advisory today:

" . . the upshot is that Beach now expects first gas sales in April at the earliest, as opposed to earlier expectations of the first quarter of the calendar year.

So you’re looking at another few months delay. The share price initially fell
6%. But it has since recovered most of that decline. That suggests there is not much optimism about Waitsia in the share price.

While the delay is disappointing, don’t let it keep you from focusing on the bigger picture.

There are two scenarios that could play out here:

One is that Waitsia could continue to be an operational pain in the neck. That wouldn’t be good.

The other is that Beach and partner Mitsui manage to get things on track sometime in the second quarter, and sales start to flow at a somewhat normal rate in FY26.

While this is a large project, it’s not exactly groundbreaking technology. Therefore, given Beach's focus on it, it’s probable that the project will be up and running in early FY26.

But given the numerous delays encountered so far, as well as other issues Beach has had over the years, the market isn’t willing to price in this likelihood.

That’s why Beach trades on a P/E multiple of 5.4 times FY26 forecast earnings. The market is taking a wait-and-see approach.

Which is understandable. The company has been a long-term disappointment.

But I think it’s worth hanging around to see how this unfolds with a small (2%) weighting. We can then increase our exposure on confirmation that Waitsia is finally progressing to production.

Good news on that front, combined with what I think will be a better year next year for oil and gas companies in terms of sentiment, would see a significant (and long-awaited) share price re-rating unfold.

If Beach regains the market’s trust and sees a more bullish environment, the company should trade on a P/E closer to 10–12 times.

So if you don’t have any exposure, adding Beach here with a 2% weighting, then adding to it on evidence of operational improvements, could pay off nicely over the next 12–18 months."

"Beach is a BUY."

 

[embryo]

Re Waitsia delay.
Excerpt from Greg Canavan's fat tail investment advisory today:

" . . the upshot is that Beach now expects first gas sales in April at the earliest, as opposed to earlier expectations of the first quarter of the calendar year.

So you’re looking at another few months delay. The share price initially fell
6%. But it has since recovered most of that decline. That suggests there is not much optimism about Waitsia in the share price.

While the delay is disappointing, don’t let it keep you from focusing on the bigger picture.

There are two scenarios that could play out here:

One is that Waitsia could continue to be an operational pain in the neck. That wouldn’t be good.

The other is that Beach and partner Mitsui manage to get things on track sometime in the second quarter, and sales start to flow at a somewhat normal rate in FY26.

While this is a large project, it’s not exactly groundbreaking technology. Therefore, given Beach's focus on it, it’s probable that the project will be up and running in early FY26.

But given the numerous delays encountered so far, as well as other issues Beach has had over the years, the market isn’t willing to price in this likelihood.

That’s why Beach trades on a P/E multiple of 5.4 times FY26 forecast earnings. The market is taking a wait-and-see approach.

Which is understandable. The company has been a long-term disappointment.

But I think it’s worth hanging around to see how this unfolds with a small (2%) weighting. We can then increase our exposure on confirmation that Waitsia is finally progressing to production.

Good news on that front, combined with what I think will be a better year next year for oil and gas companies in terms of sentiment, would see a significant (and long-awaited) share price re-rating unfold.

If Beach regains the market’s trust and sees a more bullish environment, the company should trade on a P/E closer to 10–12 times.

So if you don’t have any exposure, adding Beach here with a 2% weighting, then adding to it on evidence of operational improvements, could pay off nicely over the next 12–18 months."

"Beach is a BUY."

Beach is way over budget with the gas plant having now cost $1.3 bil and also they don't have enough gas so they are saying that 3rd parties may be able to use the plant on a toll system.

 

[rcw1]

Beach Energy cut to Neutral; target raised 9pc to $1.20: Citi

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Beach Energy cut to Neutral; target raised 9pc to $1.20: Citi

market reacted to ? .... up 10 percent to $1.33.

 

[rcw1]

market reacted to ? .... up 10 percent to $1.33.

Murphy’s law … ha ha ha

 

[divs4ever]

Murphy’s law … ha ha ha

but , but Murphy was an optimist ( like me , but most don't realize it is so )

 

[Smurf1976]

One of my picks for the 2025 trading competition.

The reason at this stage is simply about exposure to the upstream oil and gas industry.

Reasons behind that being simply about the risk of supply tightness. For oil, US production growth has slowed, indeed it's been broadly sideways since late 2023 based on US EIA monthly data through October 2024.

For natural gas well the US is building a lot of LNG export capacity but on the other hand, raw gas production has been roughly flat since early 2023.

Noting the US as the largest producer of both oil and gas hence the relevance of it to all companies regardless of where their own operations are.

Now throw in geopolitics and general inflationary pressure, that's my reasoning.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

“An active quarter in the Perth Basin saw two Waitsia development wells completed and suspended, two Waitsia LNG swap cargoes lifted and transition from construction to commissioning phase for the Waitsia Gas Plant. As we progress commissioning, we are targeting first sales gas from the Waitsia Gas Plant in Q4 FY25.

“The Waitsia LNG cargoes boosted cash flow and supported a material increase in available liquidity. Net debt reduced from $555 million to $389 million and net gearing reduced from 14% to 10%. This de-gearing demonstrates the significant contribution Waitsia will have once online and fully delivering“, Brett Woods said.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

“An active quarter in the Perth Basin saw two Waitsia development wells completed and suspended, two Waitsia LNG swap cargoes lifted and transition from construction to commissioning phase for the Waitsia Gas Plant. As we progress commissioning, we are targeting first sales gas from the Waitsia Gas Plant in Q4 FY25.

“The Waitsia LNG cargoes boosted cash flow and supported a material increase in available liquidity. Net debt reduced from $555 million to $389 million and net gearing reduced from 14% to 10%. This de-gearing demonstrates the significant contribution Waitsia will have once online and fully delivering“, Brett Woods said.

View attachment 191737

Thanks for the update on BPT @Dona Ferentes . I'm looking for another LNG play to add to my SMSF. It hasn't done much price wise in the last 5 years and the divi doesn't inspire.

gg

 

[Dona Ferentes]

things are looking up

Production up 15% on pcp to 10.2 MMboe underpinned by strong operational performance
• Otway Basin production up 118% following connection of Thylacine West and Enterprise
• Bass Basin production up 67% following successful wellbore interventions
• Western Flank delivering strong reservoir performance and high facility uptime

Underlying NPAT up 37% to $237 million from higher production and Waitsia LNG swap cargoes
• Sales revenue up 5% to $990 million; two Waitsia LNG swap cargoes delivered $139 million revenue
• Underlying EBITDA up 20% to $587 million
• Average realised gas price up 18% to $10.5/GJ

Interim dividend up 50% to 3.0 cps supported by higher free cash flow and strengthened liquidity
• Operating cash flow up 88% to $659 million
• Net gearing reduced to 10% (from 15% at 30 June 2024); net debt down 33% to $389 million
• $631 million in cash reserves and undrawn committed facilities

First half financial performance tracking in line with FY25 targets
• Sustaining capital expenditure (incurred) of $195 million (FY25 target: <$450 million)
• Field operating costs of $12.5/boe (FY25 target: ~$14/boe)
• Free cash flow breakeven oil price on track to achieve FY25 target of ~US$30/bbl

Major projects completed and strategic objectives progressed
• Thylacine West connections marked completion of the largest ever offshore Otway Basin campaign
• Moomba CCS project delivered with strong commissioning and ramp-up performance
• 30% targeted headcount reduction exceeded
• New executive leadership team

An active second half of FY25 to come
• Waitsia Stage 2 commissioning underway; targeting first sales gas from the Waitsia Gas Plant in Q4 FY25
• Offshore Gas Victoria activities expected to commence in Q4 FY25, including the Hercules exploration well
• Western Flank 10-well oil development and appraisal campaign expected to commence in Q4 FY25

FY25 guidance
• Production: 18.5 – 20.5 MMboe (previously 17.5 – 21.5 MMboe)
• Capital expenditure: $700 – 800 million (no change)

 

[divs4ever]

FY25 half year

008/25 Date 6 February 2025

Production up 15% on pcp to 10.2 MMboe underpinned by strong operational performance
• Otway Basin production up 118% following connection of Thylacine West and Enterprise
• Bass Basin production up 67% following successful wellbore interventions
• Western Flank delivering strong reservoir performance and high facility uptime
Underlying NPAT up 37% to $237 million from higher production and Waitsia LNG swap cargoes
• Sales revenue up 5% to $990 million; two Waitsia LNG swap cargoes delivered $139 million revenue
• Underlying EBITDA up 20% to $587 million
• Average realised gas price up 18% to $10.5/GJInterim dividend up 50% to 3.0 cps supported by higher free cash flow and strengthened liquidity
• Operating cash flow up 88% to $659 million
• Net gearing reduced to 10% (from 15% at 30 June 2024); net debt down 33% to $389 million
• $631 million in cash reserves and undrawn committed facilities
First half financial performance tracking in line with FY25 targets
•Sustaining capital expenditure (incurred) of $195 million (FY25 target: <$450 million)• Field operating costs of $12.5/boe (FY25 target: ~$14/boe)
• Free cash flow breakeven oil price on track to achieve FY25 target of ~US$30/bbl
Ongoing focus on safety and wellbeing culture delivering improved outcomes
• Reduction in TRIFR to 0.6 (H1 FY24: 6.0); no Tier 1 / Tier 2 process safety events or environmental spillsMajor projects completed and strategic objectives progressed
Thylacine West connections marked completion of the largest ever offshore Otway Basin campaign
• Moomba CCS project delivered with strong commissioning and ramp-up performance
• 30% targeted headcount reduction exceeded
• New executive leadership team
An active second half of FY25 to come
Waitsia Stage 2 commissioning underway; targeting first sales gas from the Waitsia Gas Plant in Q4 FY25
• Offshore Gas Victoria activities expected to commence in Q4 FY25, including the Hercules exploration well
• Western Flank 10-well oil development and appraisal campaign expected to commence in Q4
FY25FY25 guidance
• Production: 18.5 – 20.5 MMboe (previously 17.5 – 21.5 MMboe)
• Capital expenditure: $700 – 800 million (no change)Beach Energy Limited | FY25 half year results
Beach Energy Limited (ASX: BPT, Beach) today announced robust results for the first half of FY25.
Managing Director and CEO Brett Woods said "Beach’s pleasing half year results demonstrate early turnaround signs following the strategic review initiatives announced last year.
Over the past six months, we have worked hard to deliver the organisational reset, including a more than 30% reduction in headcount and appointment of new executive leadership.
Major projects have been completed and strong operations delivered with outstanding safety and environmental performance.
This has underpinned growth in earnings and cash flow and a further strengthening of our financial position.
“In the field, we achieved a 15% increase in production to 10.2 MMboe. Production in the Otway Basin morethan doubled due to higher take-or-pay arrangements and increased well deliverability following the Enterpriseand Thylacine West connections. Well interventions in the Bass Basin drove a step-change in production, and good reservoir performance and facility uptime in the Western Flank helped mitigate natural oil field decline.“
In addition to production growth, cost out initiatives and two Waitsia LNG swap cargoes helped drive a material increase in first half earnings.
Sales revenue increased 5% to $990 million, underlying EBITDA increased 20% to $587 million and underlying NPAT increased 37% to $237 million.
“Higher earnings in turn supported higher free cash flow and a strengthened liquidity position.
An 88% increase in operating cash flow to $659 million and a reduction in growth capital expenditure following completion of major projects allowed for paydown of debt facilities.]
Net debt reduced by 33% over the past six months to $389 million and net gearing reduced from 15% to 10%, well below our target range.
“In recognition of first half performance, the Board declared a fully franked interim dividend of 3.0 cents per share.
This is a 50% increase from the prior corresponding period which conveys confidence in our outlook and is consistent with our objective to deliver higher returns to shareholders.
“During the half, Beach successfully commissioned the Moomba CCS project.
The project has capacity to injectand store all produced reservoir CO2 from the Moomba Gas Plant and has already sequestered roughly 340,000 tonnes (gross) of CO2-equivalent in the first three months since coming online.
“With a strong first half behind us, we carry good momentum into what will be a busy second half of FY25.
Commissioning of the Waitsia Gas Plant is now well underway and we continue to target first sales gas in Q4 FY25.
In the Otway Basin, we expect activity for the Offshore Gas Victoria program to commence, including drilling the Hercules gas exploration prospect.
“In the Western Flank, we are readying to commence the next phase of oil development and appraisal drilling,with a focus on the McKinlay reservoir across several fields.
Meanwhile, our refresh of Western Flank oil exploration prospects is nearing completion with a potential exploration program for FY26 coming together.
“As announced with our strategic review, Beach’s aspiration is simple – to become Australia’s leading domestic energy company.
Our results from the first half show that the turnaround in Beach’s performance is now underway, validating our strategic pillars of Core Hubs, High Margins and Sustainable Growth”, Mr Woods said.


i hold BPT ( 'free-carried' )

av. SP 52.5 cents ... a nice gain ..BUT i bought it to 'channel trade ' ( and it never came back to the buy target range )

 

[Dona Ferentes]

things are looking up

FY25 guidance
• Production: 18.5 – 20.5 MMboe (previously 17.5 – 21.5 MMboe)
• Capital expenditure: $700 – 800 million (no change)

but in the forward view, the guidance has narrowed, and capex could blow out, so the market sells down 5c

Nice dividend, though