Bottom Callers

[prawn_86]

Shane Oliver is a media *****

 

[Bill M]

I'm buying..call me anything u like.

Lotsa value around.

Fortune favors the brave.

Its the bottom for some stocks, others still to come and others already gone.

I'm like you mate, I have no interest in short term movements of share prices. When I get my dividends come in I take out what I need to live off and the rest gets ploughed right back into the market. Even with all the dividend cuts my portfolio is producing healthy returns. I have no need to access my capital and for me buying stocks right now only improves my dividends even more, good luck SC.

 

[gfresh]

On that note, kennas, i was reading an article on marketWatch last week sometime which said that average p/e for US markets have actually GONE UP in the last year or so because company earnings have been falling more than shareprices!

Close to our market, nearly all falls in price have usually equalled large drops in profit later on. Analysts decide the likely impact to profits, large institutionals sell on each internal downgrade and only buy when they think that target has been reached. While the punters are "amazed" they see they "crazy" prices shares being sold at, only to be "stunned" by a large drop in profit when it's announced.

I don't know why it would be safe to call a bottom yet.. what says stocks just because they have fallen over 50%, cannot fall to 70/80% ? People were saying at 30% everything was "good value", and 12 months later we're at close to 3000... Is there any logical reason we cannot be at 2000 in 12 months? Not particularly.

If investors are true "long term" investors, it seems crazy they are not using a longer term indicator such as a long weekly MA crossing to decide 3 months later "yes, that was the bottom", and buy in appropriately.

 

[nizar]

If investors are true "long term" investors, it seems crazy they are not using a longer term indicator such as a long weekly MA crossing to decide 3 months later "yes, that was the bottom", and buy in appropriately.

Long term investors use TA indicators??

 

[MR.]

By the way MR., don't take my tone personally. It's frustrating and disappointing to see these very dangerous authorities making claims about bottoms and outlooks and forecasts etc. They want people to listen to them of course, or else what's their purpose in live, to be investors???

Nuh wouldn't know how to take that personally. Agree 100%.

All the money will be made in the next few years by those with the motza to buy when there's blood on the streets.
It might fall further but who cares, those that invest at or near the bottom will be rewarded.

Gordon Gekko, I've got some inside info'...... can't lose......... Gunna go through da roof...........Anakut Steel (Spelling might be wrong but look em up)

Anyway, if you give something ago you deserve to be rewarded.

 

[gfresh]

Long term investors use TA indicators??

Why wouldn't you at least give such an indicator a quick look now and then? even if your major consideration was FA.

 

[theasxgorilla]

If investors are true "long term" investors, it seems crazy they are not using a longer term indicator such as a long weekly MA crossing to decide 3 months later "yes, that was the bottom", and buy in appropriately.

Seems crazy to who?

When your time-frame is decades this is lot better than buying up big in Oct 07.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Why wouldn't you at least give such an indicator a quick look now and then? even if your major consideration was FA.

Having said that, I agree...used in combination, gotta be useful, regardless of which way you lean.

 

[motorway]

On that note, kennas, i was reading an article on marketWatch last week sometime which said that average p/e for US markets have actually GONE UP in the last year or so because company earnings have been falling more than shareprices!
Now isn't that a scary thought?

And whatever happened to 10-20% "bearmarket rallies"? We must be about due for one of those? Or not...

Have a look at THE bottom in 1932

The 12 mth subsequent was the biggest ever up move on the DOW.

In July 1932

Earnings and Debt
and nearly everything else
was bad and to get worse...

Yet the market went up from that point
because that was the bottom

Despite what the News and Doomsayers were saying



motorway

 

[tasmart]

"Two roads diverged in a yellow wood and I, I took the road less traveled by and that has made all the difference."

I won't call a bottom as there are at least a million people better qualified but I will continue to add to my position. All the money will be made in the next few years by those with the motza to buy when there's blood on the streets.
It might fall further but who cares, those that invest at or near the bottom will be rewarded.

Best of luck,
G

I actually agree with this and have been topping up for a while now in my SMSF (was previously heavily cashed up). Interestingly all my stocks except ALS & PRG are well above their 52 week lows.

Lots of blood on the streets ....... and still have cash (& more coming).

I'm not going to try to call a bottom - but on prior history the bottom of the market often co-incudes with the actualy economic declaration of a recession - aka yesterday!

 

[Beej]

For me ill only be re-entering the market when it gets close to 2000 and no earlier then mid-late 2010. For me this downturn is looking at 5yrs plus i reckon but you can never be certain.

When you say "downturn" do you mean the economic downturn or the stock market down turn? While related, the 2 are also very different things.....Ie as shown you can be in the deepest depths of an economic downturn but have seen the bottom of the stock market a long time before that time.

PS: I'm not calling the bottom - I don't believe myself or anyone else can actually pick the true bottom of a market, we can only make a guess, and review with the benefit of hindsight down the track how we went.

Cheers,

Beej

 

[So_Cynical]

I'm like you mate, I have no interest in short term movements of share prices. When I get my dividends come in I take out what I need to live off and the rest gets ploughed right back into the market.

Hey Bill...im still keen to take short term profits when presented with the
opportunity...but also keen to hold, get them franking credits etc.

I buy what makes sense to me and i buy with an open ended attitude and
the ambition to build my holdings.

Ive been in some stocks for years and others for just weeks.

 

[Glen48]

I think the only economist who seems to have any idea is the bloke from Access Economics Chris Reason???
There was one on ABC to night he went to Harvard, has a MBA etc who studied Off shore Oil drill in Middle USA He has work with all the big Banks and now runs a lawn Mowing business in Albury... He looks like the Man for me his name is John Clarke.

 

[Dowdy]

well i was saying to my brother a few months ago it would reach '97 levels but i guess i was wrong on that bottom.

It'll probably bottom at '95 levels (3500-5000DOW)

Worst case it'll reach '91 levels (2000-3000DOW)

And where our market will go? No idea

There's always profits to be made if your cautious