Bottom Callers

[MR.]

Is the market good value? Picked the bottom yet?

A list of some "experts" will make some good viewing. We all must have a couple.
They're right ofcoarse, it's just that the market then kept falling.

To start with an easy one:

Shane Oliver's call on 13/7/08 Inside business.
"I already think the share market in Australian and global share market's are pretty good value"
ALL-ORDS 5067 now 3171 near 38% loss.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0WEytSTugGY&feature=channel
Jim Cramer called the bottom for the DOW at 11,600
Don harrold's calls DOW 8700 because Jim calls to go to cash. now 6763
Cramer near 42% loss.

.

 

[Gundini]

Are you serious?

No way is this the bottom....

 

[CanOz]

OK, i'll take a "guess"!

I say we put in a short term bottom this week!!!!

wooo hoo, that was fun....

100 RMB if I'm wrong, any takers?

CanOz

 

[theasxgorilla]

Value and bottom are completely different things. Given that current state of affairs only a moron would claim "value" at this juncture. Nobody is issuing guidance because no-one knows how bad this is going to get before it gets better.

 

[MR.]

Are you serious?

No way is this the bottom....

OK, i'll take a "guess"!

I say we put in a short term bottom this week!!!!

wooo hoo, that was fun....

CanOz

Given that current state of affairs only a moron would claim "value" at this juncture.

What the?

Well that worked well..... Not quite the response I was looking for.

Perhaps it's the thread title?
Perhaps these questions made my post confusing:

Is the market good value? Picked the bottom yet?

Would it help the thread if "I" responded answering No and No.... ?

The thread was a light hearted attempt at perhaps a little humour at the expense of some expert calls. That's it.......
Experts who have called good value and bottoms on the way down. Or perhaps an expert claiming to buy... but now with hindsight how wrong...

My example of Shane Oliver's claim of good value back in July. Wonder how many bought from his claim? He's on TV with perhaps a million viewers claiming that he already thinks the markets are good value. To me he is telling people to buy. I kept the interview because at the time I thought "what planet is he on?"

anyway.......

 

[Sean K]

Can't pick value when we don't know how much companies are going to lose, and for how long. pe's on current earnings are very low, and yields very high. Good value? Probably not if their profits drop by 90% this year.

 

[Green08]

Bottom Callers are those women who think a size 8 is the new corset device and sit down. You get more than a muffin top and a nasty shock! Leaves the men and their stubbies to shame.

 

[nizar]

Can't pick value when we don't know how much companies are going to lose, and for how long. pe's on current earnings are very low, and yields very high. Good value? Probably not if their profits drop by 90% this year.

On that note, kennas, i was reading an article on marketWatch last week sometime which said that average p/e for US markets have actually GONE UP in the last year or so because company earnings have been falling more than shareprices!

Now isn't that a scary thought?

And whatever happened to 10-20% "bearmarket rallies"? We must be about due for one of those? Or not...

 

[Sean K]

On that note, kennas, i was reading an article on marketWatch last week sometime which said that average p/e for US markets have actually GONE UP in the last year or so because company earnings have been falling more than shareprices!

Now isn't that a scary thought?

And whatever happened to 10-20% "bearmarket rallies"? We must be about due for one of those? Or not...

Interesting.

Yes, should be a bearmarket rally soon you'd exect. I'm guessing more than 10-20% though. Just because it's fallen so much!

 

[MR.]

On that note, kennas, i was reading an article on marketWatch last week sometime which said that average p/e for US markets have actually GONE UP in the last year or so because company earnings have been falling more than shareprices!

It's not bad, it's not bad, it's not bad..... Profits will return, profits will return.......

Interesting.
Just because it's fallen so much!

Thought so. History this century has shown there is always that bounce. Would you think nizar's post is an example why there might be a bounce? Perhaps!
Forget the fundamentals, forget the fundamentals, forget the fundamentals.....

 

[drsmith]

The market rallied about 12% (daily close to daily close) from late Nov to early Jan.

My guess (and it's only a guess) is that any rally of substance will be from a starting point below 3000 on the All Ords.

 

[Ageo]

For me ill only be re-entering the market when it gets close to 2000 and no earlier then mid-late 2010. For me this downturn is looking at 5yrs plus i reckon but you can never be certain.

 

[MR.]

For me ill only be re-entering the market when it gets close to 2000 and no earlier then mid-late 2010. For me this downturn is looking at 5yrs plus i reckon but you can never be certain.

Ditto.......


I give up with this thread. Let it fall away to the oblivion.

 

[Gordon Gekko]

"Two roads diverged in a yellow wood and I, I took the road less traveled by and that has made all the difference."

I won't call a bottom as there are at least a million people better qualified but I will continue to add to my position. All the money will be made in the next few years by those with the motza to buy when there's blood on the streets.
It might fall further but who cares, those that invest at or near the bottom will be rewarded.

Best of luck,
G

 

[jackson8]

Ditto.......


I give up with this thread. Let it fall away to the oblivion.

here is another example for you MR.
at the time dow 8078

February 03, 2009

Stock Market is Bottoming, Equities VS Gold Bullion
by Chris Ver.............




Stock market looks like it has bottomed forming a similar pattern as it did in 2003. What is the better investment during an opportunity like this if this is the bottom: Stocks, Gold Bullion or Mining Stocks?

The charts below will really open your eyes as to how similar today's W looking bottom is to the W shaped bottom in 2003. Of course 6 years later the markets trade and move faster than ever before because of technology allowing traders to track and trade stocks from anywhere with a click of a button. So this years bottom formed much quicker.

seems very easy to call the bottom but in hindsight i think it is only possible to see the bottom 3-4 months after it has happened

 

[MR.]

there are at least a million people better qualified

?

here is another example for you MR.
at the time dow 8078

February 03, 2009

Stock Market is Bottoming, Equities VS Gold Bullion
by Chris Ver.............

Stock market looks like it has bottomed forming a similar pattern as it did in 2003. What is the better investment during an opportunity like this if this is the bottom: Stocks, Gold Bullion or Mining Stocks?

The charts below will really open your eyes as to how similar today's W looking bottom is to the W shaped bottom in 2003. Of course 6 years later the markets trade and move faster than ever before because of technology allowing traders to track and trade stocks from anywhere with a click of a button. So this years bottom formed much quicker.

Good onya Jackson8.
Thought I had completely lost all communication skills.
Ya made me day.......
Now, to send this thread where no one will ever find it!

 

[So_Cynical]

I'm buying..call me anything u like.

Lotsa value around.

Fortune favors the brave.

Its the bottom for some stocks, others still to come and others already gone.

 

[sammy84]

Although I'm not a professional, I called a bottom after lehman bros, luckily I was quick to realise my mistakes. And MR dont worry I understood the point of this thread

 

[theasxgorilla]

Keep in mind that it's not only a case of market goes up, market goes down. There is also the volatility to contend with. A bear market rally, recovery, correction within the correction, whatever you want to call it, might measure upteen percent from trough to peak...but can your strategy profit from it??

 

[theasxgorilla]

By the way MR., don't take my tone personally. It's frustrating and disappointing to see these very dangerous authorities making claims about bottoms and outlooks and forecasts etc. They want people to listen to them of course, or else what's their purpose in live, to be investors???

I'd love to see Shane Olivers portfolio. Wonder if he has any "value" picks in "the bottom draw" from his earlier "bottom call"??? Or if his market exposure is scaled way back while he rakes in the dough from all the media appearances and books? Either way it would be telling.