BOOKS - What are ASF members reading?

[CanOz]

I downloaded this last week, looking forward to listening to it.

------------------

At the moment im listening to

Total Recall: My Unbelievably True Life Story by Arnold Schwarzenegger

Im liking it even though the press has condemned it.

Sc, what site do you use for your audio books?

 

[tech/a]

The Great Crash Ahead

Harry Dent.

USA based with reference to Australia.
Just started so not a lot to report.
Quick browes and it looks like 2013 - 15
Is where it all is going to happen.
This coincides with the technical gurus
Like Williams and Procter.

Dents stats are compelling.

The gist is a long long term period of deflation
10 yrs +

Will report back as I read more.

 

[Sean K]

Eureka

by the pirate.

Gee he's a good writer.

Half way through.

Anyone interested in what made Australia, this is a good start.

Wish I was around in these days, must have been pretty damn exciting!

 

[McLovin]

Dent was right once and has made a career of that single call about the Japanese economy in the 1980's. He is as accurate as every other economist, that is to say he gets it right half the time. The performance of all his funds has been underwhelming to say the least.

At the beginning of the last decade he was calling a Dow 40,000.

 

[tech/a]

Dent was right once and has made a career of that single call about the Japanese economy in the 1980's. He is as accurate as every other economist, that is to say he gets it right half the time. The performance of all his funds has been underwhelming to say the least.

At the beginning of the last decade he was calling a Dow 40,000.

I hear you.

I've just finished
" The Crisis of Over Crowding "
Nothing to do with population but with the over crowding of derivative markets
And the collapse of 2008
The Fed plugged the hole only to make the next hole
Which they plugged again. The over crowding is still there yet to be unwound.

The weight of evidence to the bearish side is overwhelming.
I think all we will be able to do is watch.

Still I like to see solutions and consequences of " What if's "

 

[CanOz]

I hear you.

I've just finished
" The Crisis of Over Crowding "

Same as this one?

The Crisis of Crowding - Ludwig B. Chincarini

Interesting view of Dent's...diametrically opposed to Jack W. Plunkett's view expressed in "The Next Boom: What you absolutely, positively have to know about the world between now and 2025"

Lots of stats!!...Still reading

CanOz

 

[So_Cynical]

Sc, what site do you use for your audio books?

PB of course.

 

[CanOz]

PB of course.

PB???

 

[tech/a]

Same as this one?

Interesting view of Dent's...diametrically opposed to Jack W. Plunkett's view expressed in "The Next Boom: What you absolutely, positively have to know about the world between now and 2025"

Lots of stats!!...Still reading

CanOz

Yeh I didn't pull it out of the library!
I'll get Plunketts

That way I'll have two tools to blame!

 

[McLovin]

The weight of evidence to the bearish side is overwhelming.
I think all we will be able to do is watch.

And in 2006 the weight of evidence to the bullish side was overwhelming. There just seems to be a preoccupation with picking the next big crash. Almost every week a new theory on the end of the world is in being bandied about. It's hard to believe that with so much time and effort being devoted to creating doomsday scenarios their is anything left that isn't already known.

I don't know what will happen in the next 1,2,3 years but I can say fairly certainly that in ten years time global GDP will be higher than it is today.

Still I like to see solutions and consequences of " What if's "

I think I said on another thread that there are too many variables to invest based on macro conditions. The reason is that running scenarios requires so many assumptions to be made that you end up with an infinite number of outcomes.

This is well off the topic of books though, so I'll stop.

 

[gav]

"Dead Aid: Why Aid Is Not Working and How There is Another Way for Africa" by Dambisa Moyo

The author, Dambisa Moyo is an economist born in Nambia. Despite $1 trillion in aid over the past 60 years, per capita income is lower now than it was in the 1970’s. Moyo argues that aid is the cause of rampant corruption and bloated bureaucracies, giving plenty of shocking examples, including a study showing as much as 85% of aid flows were used for purposes other than that for which they were initially intended.

Other arguments include a lack of incentive to save and produce, and it chokes the export sector (one of the key drivers of growth). Despite the corruption and failures of aid, Moyo believes aid continues to flow because so many people are in the “aid business”. There are over 500,000 people employed world wide in the “aid business”. Their livelihoods depend on aid, just like those who actually receive the aid.

Apart from aid, there are other ways in which the west harms Africa, such as trade barriers and agricultural subsidies. Western nations spent $300 billion on agricultural subsidies in 2005 alone. The loss to Africa as a whole has been estimated at $500 billion per year. To show how absurd this is, every European Union cow gets $2.50 per day in subsidies, which is more than 1 billion of the poorest people on the planet have to live on (many of which are Africans).

Moyo argues in favour of market-based solutions over aid such as getting rid of trade barriers and subsidies, implementing financial innovations which encourage micro-lending, etc. and cites many examples where these have helped boost economies and lift millions out of poverty (China, India, etc).

It’s a really interesting read, and has inspired me to do some research on organisations like Kiva, which help people make micro-loans to borrowers in poverty-stricken countries.

 

[tech/a]

Bit like Cancer Gav

Do they want a cure?
Do they want to kill off the
Stream of gold?

 

[tech/a]

Can

How are you finding that book?
Worth a read?

(Plunkett)

 

[CanOz]

Can

How are you finding that book?
Worth a read?

(Plunkett)

Yeah, its jammed packed with stats. I think you'd find it interesting. I'm only about halfway through it though as i've been busy with other things during my normal reading time...

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[gav]

Bit like Cancer Gav

Do they want a cure?
Do they want to kill off the
Stream of gold?

Very true. The governments don't want to kill off the constant stream, for obvious reasons. Some countries are starting to change though, and it isn't Western Countries that are helping, it's China. They are investing directly in companies and infrastructure. China has a huge interest in their commodities, and so far it seems a win-win for both parties (for now). This is taken straight from the book:

“Whether or not Chinese domination is in the interest of the average African today is irrelevant. This is not to underestimate how much Africans care about freedom and rights – they do. But in the immediate term a woman in rural Dongo cares less about the risk to her democratic freedom in forty years’ time than about putting food on her table tonight. China promises food on the table today, education for her children tomorrow and an infrastructure she can rely on to support her business in the foreseeable future.”

 

[gav]

"Adapt" by Tim Harford

Tim Harford explains how the process of innovation is stifled in our complex, modern world. Good ideas are smothered by bureaucracy and bad practices grow and prosper. Harford argues that we need to go back to basics and examine what has worked in the past, and try to replicate it: evolution. From page 14:

Why is trial and error such an effective tool for solving problems? The evolutionary algorithm – of variation and selection, repeated – searches for solutions in a world where the problems keep changing, trying all sorts of variants and doing more of what works.

Harford suggests we implement what he calls the Palchinsky Principles”. (Palchinsky was an outspoken engineer in communist Russia). The principles are:
1. Try new things, expecting that some will fail.
2. Make failure survivable: create safe spaces for failure or move forward in small steps… significant enough to make a difference, but not such a gamble that you’re ruined if it fails.
3. Seek out feedback and learn from your mistakes as you go along.

Principle 1 refers to the evolutionary concept of ‘variation’; Principle 3 refers to ‘selection’. The examples given in the book make for an interesting read, ranging from leadership and strategy in the Iraq war, medical and technological innovations, and outsourcing problems for prize money.

 

[Knobby22]

Existance by David Brin.

A fantastic science fiction work by the master looking at the future of mankind and why space is so quiet.

If you long for a book that stretches your mind then you can't go past this one. A great story with many ideas.

 

[chops_a_must]

Just finished reading Winter Journal by my favourite contemporary author - Paul Auster.

An interesting memoir written in 2nd person. And I've gained an understanding of why I relate to him so well.

Between two books at the moment, until I decide which one i want to read.

But I've started writing a history of my football club, after submitting my thesis.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Moneyball (the book about the movie about the real life story).

Mildly interesting. Oakland A's hit a huge winning streak after employing a statistician.

 

[Tink]

Colleen McCullough - The Thorn Birds
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Thorn_Birds

I mentioned this in the movie thread, but the book is just as good, have read this a few times as well..
Powerful, loved it.