BNL - Blue Star Helium
- Thread starter yogi-in-oz
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If the first Dillworth well is so good, then why aren't they saying? The January reported production was 2 mmcfg and 1361 bo.
Hi guys i dont currently hold AZZ, but still watch with interest and will hold at some point in time. Still too dear imo, but getting closer to value with time.
My call was right when i got out. I went into two other US shale players, picked up 80% on one and 60% on the other. Not positng this to cross ramp, so have deliberately not named them. but posting it to say i still feel AZZ is an excellent coy, but a bit expensive compared to a few others.
Having said that AZZ could surge dramatically on anyone of its 2010 wells. Good luck to all holders, looks like a great mid term investment imo, but there are others performing better in the short to medium term at present off smaller mcaps.
My call was right when i got out. I went into two other US shale players, picked up 80% on one and 60% on the other. Not positng this to cross ramp, so have deliberately not named them. but posting it to say i still feel AZZ is an excellent coy, but a bit expensive compared to a few others.
Having said that AZZ could surge dramatically on anyone of its 2010 wells. Good luck to all holders, looks like a great mid term investment imo, but there are others performing better in the short to medium term at present off smaller mcaps.
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There is IMHO a huge disconnect between the price of (U.S.) natural gas and oil at this time and it may have put a top into AZZ pending further discoveries. The use of new technolgies in the U.S. has uncovered massive quantities of gas. Some estimate that it is equivalent to over a hundred year supply at current useage rates. U.S. Gas is currently selling for around $4.00 and the chart formation looks totally "opposite" to the price of oil.
At some point we start getting into replacement cost of cheap gas for expensive oil. The first area is home heating where you replace heating oil. Barron's has just done a piece on T. Boone Pickens obssession with replacing diesel fuel in transportation with nat gas. I understand that the replacement gas may work out as low as 50 cents a gallon for the nat gas v, diesel prices of +$3.00 a gallon.
As more and more nat gas is found in the U.S. the inclination will be there for trucking fleets to switch into nat gas trucks. The U.S. trucking fleet consumes massives amounts of diesel fuel. Once each truck converts to nat gas it stays on nat gas. Then oil demand in the U.S. will take a massive hit.
Repeat this process in other countries where these new technologies can be worked and the process repeats. May be that all the talk of peak oil is very misplaced AND oil stocks sell off.
At some point we start getting into replacement cost of cheap gas for expensive oil. The first area is home heating where you replace heating oil. Barron's has just done a piece on T. Boone Pickens obssession with replacing diesel fuel in transportation with nat gas. I understand that the replacement gas may work out as low as 50 cents a gallon for the nat gas v, diesel prices of +$3.00 a gallon.
As more and more nat gas is found in the U.S. the inclination will be there for trucking fleets to switch into nat gas trucks. The U.S. trucking fleet consumes massives amounts of diesel fuel. Once each truck converts to nat gas it stays on nat gas. Then oil demand in the U.S. will take a massive hit.
Repeat this process in other countries where these new technologies can be worked and the process repeats. May be that all the talk of peak oil is very misplaced AND oil stocks sell off.
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ASX/NEWS RELEASE 1 February 2010
INITIAL PRODUCTION – 15.4 MMCFE/D
18:1 Revenue Equivalency Basis
Project: Yellow Rose
Well: Frances Dilworth No. 2H
Working Interest: 75%
Location: McMullen County, Texas
Operator: San Isidro Development Company (25%)
Antares Energy is thrilled to announce the Initial Production (IP) rate of the Frances Dilworth No. 2H is 790 Bo/d and 900 Mcf/d with an initial flowing tubing pressure of 4,500 psi on a 22/64” choke. The well is flowing 53 API gravity oil and 1,300 MBTU/Mcf gas. This equates to a 15.4 Mmcfe/d rate on an 18:1 revenue equivalency basis accounting for the quality of the liquids rich gas.
this is what azz reported to the ASX
this is the ip report as filed with the TRRC
in all seriousness,, i dont get what the AZZ is trying to say..
it doenst even match up with anything that they reported to the ASX with..
INITIAL PRODUCTION – 15.4 MMCFE/D
18:1 Revenue Equivalency Basis
Project: Yellow Rose
Well: Frances Dilworth No. 2H
Working Interest: 75%
Location: McMullen County, Texas
Operator: San Isidro Development Company (25%)
Antares Energy is thrilled to announce the Initial Production (IP) rate of the Frances Dilworth No. 2H is 790 Bo/d and 900 Mcf/d with an initial flowing tubing pressure of 4,500 psi on a 22/64” choke. The well is flowing 53 API gravity oil and 1,300 MBTU/Mcf gas. This equates to a 15.4 Mmcfe/d rate on an 18:1 revenue equivalency basis accounting for the quality of the liquids rich gas.
this is what azz reported to the ASX
this is the ip report as filed with the TRRC
in all seriousness,, i dont get what the AZZ is trying to say..
it doenst even match up with anything that they reported to the ASX with..
Hi Agentm
The date on the ASX release is 1 Feb 2010, and the date on the test report is 7 Feb 2010. The choke size on the ASX release is 22/64", and that for the test report is 16/64". It looks like we have the results of two completely separate tests. I'm not competent to interpret the differences in flow rates between the two, particularly in view of the different choke sizes - can you, or anyone else?
The date on the ASX release is 1 Feb 2010, and the date on the test report is 7 Feb 2010. The choke size on the ASX release is 22/64", and that for the test report is 16/64". It looks like we have the results of two completely separate tests. I'm not competent to interpret the differences in flow rates between the two, particularly in view of the different choke sizes - can you, or anyone else?
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the use of hyper inflated ip announcements by people desperate to make an impression on their investors and the like always will make for a reality check later
the likes of the adi jvp refuse to do anything like that, they will announce ip's that are more stabilised and go at great pains to put massive disclaimers on them,, its pointless and damaging not to very frank on them..
this is how you should attempt to announce one. adi did one at the same time
"The initial production rate going to sales at 0700 hrs on Saturday 30, January (USCST) using a 22/64 choke was 4.39 mmscf/d gas and 1,132 bpd of condensate. The water production rate, from the recovery of frac fluids, was 408 bwpd.
Whilst these initial rates are very encouraging, the following points should be noted:-
• This is an initial production rate during clean up and is not yet indicative of a short or long term production profile.
• The well still has considerable fluids to recover from the fracture stimulation operations.
• The well is flowing from approximately 2,200 ft of stimulated Eagle Ford Shale with the remainder of the 4,000 ft horizontal liner isolated and not contributing.
• The well is currently producing through the 7" production casing, with a production tubing string to be installed in due course. "
imho the azz well is nothing spectacular, and if you look at a very low ip of 361 bopd and 1200 psi over 24 hr test on the well, and compare it to an amazing undisclosed timeframe ip that azz have made public, and with huge fanfare and no disclaimers, of rates like 790 Bo/d and 900 Mcf/d with an initial flowing tubing pressure of 4,500 psi on a 22/64” choke. then i am sure the shareholders have cause to be concerned and perhaps it may raise a few eyebrows on many... it sure did for me!
if you look at the eog wells, their karnes county wells all had ip's about 3 times the AZZ one, and darlene, which is a few miles north of the adi acreages had 959 bopd, and if you go further east (as petrohawk has pointed out and also purchased more land on the eastern zones - blackhawk in dewitt) you will find the dewitt gonzales county wells (oil trend wells) all ip around 1500 - 1658 bopd
eog had poor ip's in mcmullen, very encouraging one in lasalle, poorish in atascosia, then karnes and gonzales in the east have been amazing for them with up to 1600 bopd on the ip's
imho the announcement that azz put out was spectacular, but the well isnt..
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Hi guys i dont currently hold AZZ, but still watch with interest and will hold at some point in time. Still too dear imo, but getting closer to value with time.QUOTE]
Condog
First I must say thank you, as it was your work/insightful posts that aided my decision to move heavily into AUT
Still holding ADI (for this one I have Agent to thank) and AUT.
Infact due to (largely) the success I have had in ADI, AUT, GRR (I have myself to thank for this one), CAP (Bigukraine) and NKP (Diggers+Drillers) I was able to give my boss notice of my resigation 2 weeks ago...I finish this Friday!!!
So Agent, Condog and Bigukraine I am forever grateful and aspire to someday pass on the favour.
Fuzzy feelings aside, Condog, I was hoping to hear of your sentiment toward AZZ atm in light of the anns weve had since your last post combined with the decrease in price.
Cheers.
Hi guys
Agree with speculator have done very well thanks to all your insights. Still have to work, the real boss (wife) won’t let me have a life of leisure yet.
While looking at AZZ,(have held) could you guys have a look also at TXN, also another Eagle Ford Shale player. Have noticed the share price is pulling back.
A bit like AUT (holding most of portfolio) was over a year ago????
Agree with speculator have done very well thanks to all your insights. Still have to work, the real boss (wife) won’t let me have a life of leisure yet.
While looking at AZZ,(have held) could you guys have a look also at TXN, also another Eagle Ford Shale player. Have noticed the share price is pulling back.
A bit like AUT (holding most of portfolio) was over a year ago????
Thanks speculator for your kind words
I hope it all works out for you
AZZ imo has lots of potential
A while back i think it was very much over priced, however with sudden price drop and FD3 numbers out this week, likely at or just before the aGM, i feel its approaching good value.
75% interest in these eagle ford wells will kick things along pretty quick imo.
AUT was and is a no brainer, coming off a low market cap. AZZ had got ahead of itself well and truly, but i think now its appraoching value. Fact is though at 75% interest , on well like Morgan for AUt and AZZ will take off.
Not giving advice, but i took a small stake, ready for the well results every 2-4 weeks from here on.
fd3 numbers this week
fd4 surely nearly finished drilling and fraced in a week with results in 2 weeks
fd5 starts drilling in about a week
fd 6- 8 following those
the numbers for Q2 will be better again, and Q3 should be very good.
I hope it all works out for you
AZZ imo has lots of potential
A while back i think it was very much over priced, however with sudden price drop and FD3 numbers out this week, likely at or just before the aGM, i feel its approaching good value.
75% interest in these eagle ford wells will kick things along pretty quick imo.
AUT was and is a no brainer, coming off a low market cap. AZZ had got ahead of itself well and truly, but i think now its appraoching value. Fact is though at 75% interest , on well like Morgan for AUt and AZZ will take off.
Not giving advice, but i took a small stake, ready for the well results every 2-4 weeks from here on.
fd3 numbers this week
fd4 surely nearly finished drilling and fraced in a week with results in 2 weeks
fd5 starts drilling in about a week
fd 6- 8 following those
the numbers for Q2 will be better again, and Q3 should be very good.
Gary it has potential, but needs a drilling program and competent drilling partner, before investing in. imo these companies currently drilling and providing the market with new well results every feww weeks are likely to add value far faster.
TXn one to watch for ruture when they have a program or partner, a bit premature yet i think??
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wow
anyone in azz can breathe easy now
lifeline thrown out.. and a rescue for the investors
2 August 2010
ASX/NEWS RELEASE
UNSOLICITED WRITTEN EXPRESSION OF INTEREST IN ACQUIRING
THE LEASEHOLD INTERESTS OF ANTARES IN MCMULLEN COUNTY
Antares Energy has received a written expression of interest in acquiring the leasehold interests of lands located in McMullen County, Texas. These lands contain both the Yellow Rose and Bluebonnet projects being in aggregate approximately 24,000 acres as well as the Petrohawk Term Assignment being approximately 9,000 acres.
Antares Energy has met with its long term joint venture partner and operator San Isidro Development Company to discuss the received proposal and its implications. Joint venture meetings were conducted over three days onsite with all options considered inclusive of various land and ownership alternatives as well as operatorship.
Antares Energy and San Isidro Development Company concluded meetings in absolute agreement that the joint venture partnership would proceed to engaging Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – Energy Investment & Merchant Banking, to assist with the process.
Tudor Pickering Holt & Co (TPH) is accepted as the industry leader in this type of transaction with over 80 professionals focused exclusively on energy and having completed an industry leading 33 deals between 2008 and 2010 YTD, representing approximately 35 Billion USD. TPH acted as cofinancial
advisor to Pioneer Natural Resources and Newpek when on 24th June, 2010, Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD), along with its partner Newpek LLC, announced that it entered into a $1.315 BN joint venture with Reliance Industries Ltd. (“RIL”) in the Eagle Ford Shale resulting in a 12,000 USD/acre implied valuation.
James Cruickshank
Chairman & CEO
anyone in azz can breathe easy now
lifeline thrown out.. and a rescue for the investors
2 August 2010
ASX/NEWS RELEASE
UNSOLICITED WRITTEN EXPRESSION OF INTEREST IN ACQUIRING
THE LEASEHOLD INTERESTS OF ANTARES IN MCMULLEN COUNTY
Antares Energy has received a written expression of interest in acquiring the leasehold interests of lands located in McMullen County, Texas. These lands contain both the Yellow Rose and Bluebonnet projects being in aggregate approximately 24,000 acres as well as the Petrohawk Term Assignment being approximately 9,000 acres.
Antares Energy has met with its long term joint venture partner and operator San Isidro Development Company to discuss the received proposal and its implications. Joint venture meetings were conducted over three days onsite with all options considered inclusive of various land and ownership alternatives as well as operatorship.
Antares Energy and San Isidro Development Company concluded meetings in absolute agreement that the joint venture partnership would proceed to engaging Tudor Pickering Holt & Co – Energy Investment & Merchant Banking, to assist with the process.
Tudor Pickering Holt & Co (TPH) is accepted as the industry leader in this type of transaction with over 80 professionals focused exclusively on energy and having completed an industry leading 33 deals between 2008 and 2010 YTD, representing approximately 35 Billion USD. TPH acted as cofinancial
advisor to Pioneer Natural Resources and Newpek when on 24th June, 2010, Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD), along with its partner Newpek LLC, announced that it entered into a $1.315 BN joint venture with Reliance Industries Ltd. (“RIL”) in the Eagle Ford Shale resulting in a 12,000 USD/acre implied valuation.
James Cruickshank
Chairman & CEO
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Shareprice on a bit of a rollercoaster this morning.
After the initial burst of buying there's a lot of sellers looking to exit their positions by the look of the depth.
Why do it now given the valuation of the offer is still undisclosed?
I'm in for a swing trade on this news.
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Buyers coming in now.
Sellers getting fewer.
We should see a strong close this afternoon
Sellers getting fewer.
We should see a strong close this afternoon
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Well I never.
Dow up 220 points overnight, oil up 2 dollars a barrel majors circling like sharks with their chequebooks for the acreages and AZZ takes a dive.
Thought 65 cents or so might of been on today.
Last thing I expected was red ink.
Dow up 220 points overnight, oil up 2 dollars a barrel majors circling like sharks with their chequebooks for the acreages and AZZ takes a dive.
Thought 65 cents or so might of been on today.
Last thing I expected was red ink.
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Interesting stand off in progress at the moment.
Buy depth is well propped with some fair sized orders waiting to get hit while their are no headwinds in the sell queue just a lot of them.
AZZ might not have the most prolific wells in the eagleford but they are in the right place.
And the drilling continues apace this year which is the wildcard, although cash is getting a bit tight.
Those wells will keep pumping away for 20 years and that's why a major will snap up the acreages and sit on a long term profit as the POO rises.
If the offer wasn't worth considering surely AZZ wouldn't of brought Tudor Pickering Holt & Co into the process?
That implies value above drilling imho .
In plays like this the big boys are always in pricewise and the depth reflects some crafty shoppers browsing about.
News is of great importance
Buy depth is well propped with some fair sized orders waiting to get hit while their are no headwinds in the sell queue just a lot of them.
AZZ might not have the most prolific wells in the eagleford but they are in the right place.
And the drilling continues apace this year which is the wildcard, although cash is getting a bit tight.
Those wells will keep pumping away for 20 years and that's why a major will snap up the acreages and sit on a long term profit as the POO rises.
If the offer wasn't worth considering surely AZZ wouldn't of brought Tudor Pickering Holt & Co into the process?
That implies value above drilling imho .
In plays like this the big boys are always in pricewise and the depth reflects some crafty shoppers browsing about.
News is of great importance
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Well I'm still holding on and sitting on a fair loss at this stage.
Being crunching all the well data and although it's not as profilic as some other acreages it is still profitable.
Panic selling on a downtrend seems to be the pattern.
Looking at the well flow data post FD2 the declines are less and the next two wells are going to be longer laterals.
I'm averaging the flow rates at 350 boepd and with FD 2 3 4 5 and 6 producing thats 350*5*7*75 a barrel or $918 750 per week revenue.
Take initial flows into account and AZZ is going to take 12 million a quarter in revenue at 75 a barrel this quarter.
With nine million in the bank all the pipeline and frac pond infrastructure in place and a 40 day drilling completion rate this looks good to me.
No wonder someone is shopping the acreage
Holding on grimly for news
Being crunching all the well data and although it's not as profilic as some other acreages it is still profitable.
Panic selling on a downtrend seems to be the pattern.
Looking at the well flow data post FD2 the declines are less and the next two wells are going to be longer laterals.
I'm averaging the flow rates at 350 boepd and with FD 2 3 4 5 and 6 producing thats 350*5*7*75 a barrel or $918 750 per week revenue.
Take initial flows into account and AZZ is going to take 12 million a quarter in revenue at 75 a barrel this quarter.
With nine million in the bank all the pipeline and frac pond infrastructure in place and a 40 day drilling completion rate this looks good to me.
No wonder someone is shopping the acreage
Holding on grimly for news
