BMX - BeMax Resources

[Ann]

How did I forget?
And I agree, it's getting a bit over exuberant on this thread.
All this self congraulations, high emotions and ramping.

Hi Knobby22,

Let me throw in a bit of balance to all the exuberance with my take of the stock in a chart. I may well be wrong of course.

 

[Knobby22]

That's interesting Ann and I would not be surprised to see a retace to 36c.
How does the market sentiment indicator work? What does it measure?

 

[Ann]

Hi Knobby 22

Here is a definition I have posted elsewhere, I have done a cut and paste for you....

Positive Volume Index (PVI)


The Positive Volume Index (PVI) was created by Paul Dysart. It looks at days where the volume has increased from the previous day. The idea being that the "uninformed buyers" takes positions on days with higher volumes.

Therefore, the PVI displays what the not-so-smart-money is doing.

The Negative Volume Index (NVI), displays what the smart money is doing, on days with decreased volume, the "smart money" is quietly taking positions.

Note, however, that the PVI is not a contrarian indicator. Even though the PVI is supposed to show what the not-so-smart-money is doing, it still trends in the same direction as prices.



In the MetaStock Indicator Builder dialogue, PVI is written:

Cum(If(V>Ref(V,-1),ROC(C,1,%),0))

Translated: Cumulate the following: If the current volume "V" is greater than the previous period's volume "Ref(V,-1)", then compute the Rate-of-Change "ROC" of the Closing price "C" for one period expressed as a percentage; otherwise ( if the current volume is less than the previous volume), set the day's Rate-of-Change of the closing price computation to zero before cumulating.

 

[ctp6360]

Ann is there any reason the Y-axis of your graph is not to scale, I think it makes the graph extremely misleading! To me the whole point of a graph is to have it to scale? I might be missing something, I was just curious why you had it that way?

 

[Knobby22]

The graph is logarithimic.
It more clearly shows change than a linear graph.
The price going from 25 to 50c is equivalent to a share going from 50c to $1.00.

 

[Ann]

Knobby22,

Well done, you know your stuff!! Yes it is set in Log.

CTP6360,

Yes there is quite a difference between Log and Linear. I did not mean to appear to mislead but I prefer to look at my charts logarithimicly as it allows me to see better contours in the longer term. I find looking at a chart in linear, it flattens out. Having said that, if I want to draw long term trend lines I find they are more likely to be 'true' in linear setting than if I draw them in Log. I believe Guppy has a preference for Linear. If you are a short term trader, it makes no difference both scales look the same.

I will put up the same chart in Linear and you will see the pattern is still consistant and the price gap is still relevent.

 

[Ann]

While we are at it, in a genuine attempt not to mislead, lets draw a different pattern on the same Linear chart. I have drawn a Symmetrical Triangle which on this chart is potentially a bullish outcome. All in the eye of the beholder.

I don't buy miners so my only interest is to practice charting by offering charts. I have no interest in the outcome so I don't have a bias. I throw the lines where they feel right. I can be wrong of course......

Never to mislead, just the way I look at something.

 

[brerwallabi]

Still over that upper trend line from end of March last year, anyway what do I know never heard of this till Richkid brought it to everybodys attention last year. I sold before when it became static in low 30's, bought back at 35.5 reading it to be around 50cps but I can't quite pin the timeframe all the fundamentals seem to be glowing so I can't see why 50 cps is not realistic based on fundamentals but this could be a significant barrrier its such a nice round figure.

 

[RichKid]

Still over that upper trend line from end of March last year, anyway what do I know never heard of this till Richkid brought it to everybodys attention last year. I sold before when it became static in low 30's, bought back at 35.5 reading it to be around 50cps but I can't quite pin the timeframe all the fundamentals seem to be glowing so I can't see why 50 cps is not realistic based on fundamentals but this could be a significant barrrier its such a nice round figure.

imho the important thing to remember here, pure t/a, is that we are now forming a triangle of some sort near new highs, IF this bullish patterns succeeds then all the pent up energy of the last few years can only go up. First sign of support above the recent all time high is all this needs imo as that would take this well clear of the multi-year resistance. That recent long tailed pivot is a good sign as it showed that buyers were keen to enter the market on weakness at these high levels and again we see recent accumulation throughout the day. Any declines should be on low volume to fit the scenario above.

BUT that breakout is yet to happen, I've taken a position, a very aggressive one, but think a clearer pattern will emerge soon. What interests me is all those very high volume days peppered along the chart over the last year, with big white candles, someone is buying this up. Just check the chart and tick them off, no big offloads yet. Next step for drama/volatility is that recent high imo.

The fundamentals ppl can check the holdings in BMX to see which instos have the biggest lots and if they've offloaded since buying.

 

[RichKid]

What interests me is all those very high volume days peppered along the chart over the last year, with big white candles, someone is buying this up. Just check the chart and tick them off, no big offloads yet. Next step for drama/volatility is that recent high imo.

oops, I've made a mistake. I just checked the eod chart and reviewed some of Markmau's and Nick Radge's comments in the volume thread- looks like I underestimated the importance of the relatively low range bar recently, very high volume but sellers kept the price from going too high. So let's see if we can overcome those sellers, the follow through that was required after the big volume day is yet to show. I'm looking for the next minor pivot low of this triangle. Live and learn for me.

 

[Ann]

Hey Rich Kid,

I know I am only a second rate citizen..a female not to be taken seriously but.....hey babe this stock is seriously still in play. In fact the clever traders are probably loading up their portfolios....,nix me. I don't buy miners. So whatever I say is pure rot or unbiased observations.......you be the judge.

 

[brerwallabi]

a female not to be taken seriously

I take you very seriously Ann, you offer something in your posts that makes one think and look a bit deeper. We have had differences on opinions on a few stocks before on another site but on BMX I am with you all the way, btw I hold just a few more now he he.

 

[chicken]

Hey Rich Kid,

I know I am only a second rate citizen..a female not to be taken seriously but.....hey babe this stock is seriously still in play. In fact the clever traders are probably loading up their portfolios....,nix me. I don't buy miners. So whatever I say is pure rot or unbiased observations.......you be the judge.

Ann,you are like a breath of fresh air.....your posting is superb as its at least understood by all as far as 2nd rate citizen..who told you that...because the female brain is better organised than most or 95% of males brains...our testosterones get in the way too much...anyway thanks for your posting..as far as miners is concerned...well they are hot to trot...and that is where the money is at present...mind you only due to INDIA,and China who are buying like mad...this cycle will last for a few more years yet...and at present money can be made By the way Ann...BMX will rise a lot further and my prediction is an increase of 100% on present price SP...as they are getting stuck into producing the goods....some funds selling Iluka to buy BMX..makes sense to me after all BMX only 40c at present.....and a huge upside potential.

 

[Bobby]

Hey All,
Hope you read this before opening today, now check the time of this post !.

Price & volume Jump today UP & UP

I bought more again

Bob.

 

[chicken]

Hey All,
Hope you read this before opening today, now check the time of this post !.

Price & volume Jump today UP & UP

I bought more again

Bob.

BOB, its only a matter of time before this share will move higher..why ,well they just started end of January their production and its ALL looking good and they will be the next Iluka...so at present lot of manipulations going on..but 40cents its a CHEAP buy with great prospects..I am in....for longterm hold....funds are buying and manipulating like today.....its a buy or hold.....their webside www.bemax.com.au

 

[RichKid]

Hey All,
Hope you read this before opening today, now check the time of this post !.

Price & volume Jump today UP & UP

I bought more again

Bob.

Any specific reason for your UP & UP comments Bob? The jump didn't happen today either. This is a ramp imo, please have something new and of substance to add- thanks. Goes for you too Chicken.

 

[pch]

I did some valuations on this stock based on growing EPS, selling in 10 years at a PE of 14 (generous I usually use 10 to be ultra conservative), and discounting by 11% to account for inflation and risk.

Comsec has their 06 EPS as 1c per share, 07 EPS as 2.4c and 08 EPS is wrong (they have the 07 figure there). If we assume 08 is going to be 3c per share (a growth of 20% from previous year), then the company has to grow 10% annually from then on to justify the *present* price.

If we grow the company at 20% annually instead of 10%, its the present value comes out at around 80c. Now its not unusual for companies to have massive growth, particularly when they are small. But its rare for a company to sustain such growth rates over the long term. 20% annually by any company would make for some very pleased shareholders.

Based on my sell PE and other assumptions, to make it worth $1, the company would have to grow at an average of around 25% annually.

Do you think it can acheive it?

(of course change the asusmptions and change the outcome significantly

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Any specific reason for your UP & UP comments Bob? The jump didn't happen today either. This is a ramp imo, please have something new and of substance to add- thanks. Goes for you too Chicken.

Although this stock is going nowhere at the moment, it appears to have money flowing into it even though sellers are starting take a hold. Indicators are confirming price action, which is all they are good for, but money is flowing into it more than out of it. Interesting :screwy:

You know what they say about support, keep hitting it and it is real......wher`s the resistance though?

 

[Bobby]

Any specific reason for your UP & UP comments Bob? The jump didn't happen today either. This is a ramp imo, please have something new and of substance to add- thanks. Goes for you too Chicken.

I don't ramp Richkid & Chicken does not as well, this stock is having a hassle to do whats natural with its strength.
Check out my post on Nick Radge - An example of trading with volume, posts - 25 his answer post 26.
After this manipulation is overcome & it will soon, I can then remind you of calling Me & Chicken rampers !.

Lets see who is RIGHT soon ?

Bob.

 

[RichKid]

I don't ramp Richkid & Chicken does not as well, this stock is having a hassle to do whats natural with its strength.
Check out my post on Nick Radge - An example of trading with volume, posts - 25 his answer post 26.
After this manipulation is overcome & it will soon, I can then remind you of calling Me & Chicken rampers !.

Lets see who is RIGHT soon ?

Bob.

Bob,

This is not about being right- if BMX goes to $10 then that's great. It's about the quality of postings. For the record I'm long BMX too so I'm not acting in self interest or trying to discourage you. But I can't really see these forums improving unless we at least maintain a standard.

I have read your posts in the volume analysis thread and that's excellent material that Nick has posted in reply to your post but, again, that is not the issue. Also note that as far as I know of Nick he doesn't say he can predict prices or that he knows exactly which way a stock will go- in his book he says each trade has a 50/50 chance of being a winner.

I am sorry if I have offended you but I do feel obligated to do what I can to maintain standards. I do err from time to time so feel free to contact the other moderators and we can vote on this issue if you think I'm biased. Member have been banned before for ramping as it is a serious matter. This thread discusses the ramping issue in more detail: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1145&highlight=ramp