BMX - BeMax Resources

[Bobby]

Bob,

This is not about being right- if BMX goes to $10 then that's great. It's about the quality of postings. For the record I'm long BMX too so I'm not acting in self interest or trying to discourage you. But I can't really see these forums improving unless we at least maintain a standard.

I have read your posts in the volume analysis thread and that's excellent material that Nick has posted in reply to your post but, again, that is not the issue. Also note that as far as I know of Nick he doesn't say he can predict prices or that he knows exactly which way a stock will go- in his book he says each trade has a 50/50 chance of being a winner.

I am sorry if I have offended you but I do feel obligated to do what I can to maintain standards. I do err from time to time so feel free to contact the other moderators and we can vote on this issue if you think I'm biased. Member have been banned before for ramping as it is a serious matter. This thread discusses the ramping issue in more detail: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1145&highlight=ramp

Hullo Richkid,
Thanks for the quick reply .
All my indicators said the stock was going up up, but the manipulators sold enough to slow the run .
I'm sure if the stock had jumped you would have not used the word ramp.
Your past input to this forum I have found excellent.

Regards Bob.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Hullo Richkid,
Thanks for the quick reply .
All my indicators said the stock was going up up, but the manipulators sold enough to slow the run .
I'm sure if the stock had jumped you would have not used the word ramp.
Your past input to this forum I have found excellent.

Regards Bob.

Bobby,

That explains why it is holding and not going anywhere. It has got to break sometime. I am bullish on this one but don`t hold yet. :dunno:

Just to add I have checked my charts and see money still going into it, certainly something to be aware of even though sellers are having their time with it.

 

[Joe Blow]

Hullo Richkid,
Thanks for the quick reply .
All my indicators said the stock was going up up, but the manipulators sold enough to slow the run .
I'm sure if the stock had jumped you would have not used the word ramp.
Your past input to this forum I have found excellent.

Regards Bob.

Bob,

I would like to jump in here if I may.

I think they key issue here is of supporting one's claims. If people are going to make predictions on a stocks price then they need to present some sort of case to support that point of view. I support RichKid 100% on this. It doesn't matter whether the reasons are based in fundamentals or t/a but they must be there in the post.

There are plenty of ramping room forums around the place and I certainly don't wish for ASF to become one. So lets all be careful to back up our claims and maintain a high standard here.

I'm sure you can appreciate that it makes a real difference. Please keep in mind that these are general comments and not directed at you in particular. With that said, lets get this thread back on topic!

 

[Bobby]

Bobby,

That explains why it is holding and not going anywhere. It has got to break sometime. I am bullish on this one but don`t hold yet. :dunno:

Hi Snake,
Your in tune with me ( I like that ) :
As for Bemax, well there in my backyard so I do get to know stuff.

I have never held a position so huge in one stock before this Stock .

You take care Snake.
Bob.

 

[Bobby]

Bob,

I would like to jump in here if I may.

I think they key issue here is of supporting one's claims. If people are going to make predictions on a stocks price then they need to present some sort of case to support that point of view. I support RichKid 100% on this. It doesn't matter whether the reasons are based in fundamentals or t/a but they must be there in the post.

There are plenty of ramping room forums around the place and I certainly don't wish for ASF to become one. So lets all be careful to back up our claims and maintain a high standard here.

I'm sure you can appreciate that it makes a real difference. Please keep in mind that these are general comments and not directed at you in particular. With that said, lets get this thread back on topic!

Hullo Joe.
Understand this .
Regards Bob

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

I have never held a position so huge in one stock before this Stock .
Bob.

Hi Bob,
Lets hope you`re right on this one. Your largest position.
:aus:
Cheers

 

[Bobby]

Hi Bob,
Lets hope you`re right on this one. Your largest position.
:aus:
Cheers

Yes Snake,
All the hard work plus the heartbreak of my time on earth & knowing the value of a $buck, yep I have a big position .

But so what ? : you play your best !.

Bob.

 

[krissy]

Not looking so good now. Any thoughts of how low price will go? A chart by Ann would be much appreciated

 

[Knobby22]

I said there was too much exuberance and Ann's charts appeared to confirm this.

We will now have some consolidation before the next rise.

This is where all the weak and impatient bulls and rampers sell as they panic then panic again as a rise occurs and they desperately try to get back in.

Patience required. Sorry for displaying my cynicism of the average punter er investor in the market.

 

[pch]

Knobby, got any ideas of the earning growth of this stock? I am wondering if they can sustain 10-15% growth annually. After reading the report by:

BC CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH COMMENT http://www.bemax.com.au/RBCCapMarkets0206.pdf

They certainly look interesting.. but conservative earnings growth has them looking fairly priced at present..

Care to take a guess at 2008 EPS?

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Bobby,

That explains why it is holding and not going anywhere. It has got to break sometime. I am bullish on this one but don`t hold yet. :dunno:

Just to add I have checked my charts and see money still going into it, certainly something to be aware of even though sellers are having their time with it.

Well,

Some trading days can make you realise what is really happening. Sellers have taken a hold at the moment. Will watch though. :southpark

 

[Bobby]

Well,

Some trading days can make you realise what is really happening. Sellers have taken a hold at the moment. Will watch though. :southpark

Hullo Snake , today made me feel almost sick but PCH last post was uplifting as they should be .45c at the moment !.)

Will hold for now .

Bob.

 

[pch]

uplifting? I try to be as emotionless as possible as I find blatant ramping annoying But read that report - its pretty positive. Ideally you should hunt down some other reports as well. One good report doesn't maketh the stock..

I recall in that report I mentioned the analyst has them at 65c if their plans pan out without any hitch. However they mentioned that it is too far away to count with any certainty and arrived at a figure of 56c. (still thats a nice gain from 40c)

If you also read that report, a lot of the risk is reduced with this stock because they have sales contracts in place and a good management team that (apparently) knows their stuff.

Now if I do a similar calculation to the report (NPV) my assumptions are obviously different because I come out at 30c at first.. but don't panic until you see the assumptions.

1. I assume EPS for 06 as 1c, EPS for 07 as 2.4c (as per that analyst report) and EPS for 08 at 3c (for no other reason that its a rounded figure higher that 07)
2. I assume 6% per annum EPS growth after that
3. I assume they pay a dividend in 08 of 1c per share
4. I assume when I sell them in 10 years the PE is 13
5. I apply a discount of all of this of 11% to account for inflation and risk

(there are a few other assumptions as well but they don't matter for now)

They are pretty conservative assumptions I think.. If we grow earnings by 10% per annum instead of 6% we hit 40c.

If EPS is high in 08 (still ramping up production) and is 4c per share instead of 3c we hit 53c

So by adjusting the numbers, you can make this stock look good. (mind you any stock can be made to look good with growth rates of above 20% per annum You just have to ask yourself whether the assumptions are accurate and whether the company can acheive these figures realistically.

Of course, whether the market agrees with you is another story..

 

[Nick Radge]

Too true Snake. A wide range, close on the low and high volume can only mean sellers, and as you say, they remain in control. This was shown on the weekly charts several weeks ago. The price cannot go up until those sellers are fulfilled and my geuss is that some recent longs are getting nervous which will only add to the supply. It will be time to buy when they capitulate.

Nick

This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information.

 

[Knobby22]

Good article find pch and good comments.

I estimate higher as the resource is very large and the assumptions made in the article are conservative. Though there should be a discount till contracts are in order and full output is reached, this company was already in the mineral sands business before this and I am (over?)confident that the project will not have any hitches. Been holding for a while so have no need to attract capital gains tax this financial year by selling.

I would have thought 3c per share was reasonable. If they are in contract, I would expect further efficiencies and no reason for eps to drop as per the brokers report. It is not however the clear bargain it was a year ago when I bought in.

Wouldn't be suprised to see a price drop short term to 35c as stop losses trip. Stage 2 adds more blue sky and doesn't seem to be included in the valuation adequately. The project reminds me a little of Woodside with its large gas reserves. It will be relatively simple for Bemax to produce more product should demand require it.

I said very early in this thread 80c. I still think we can get there but it is probably at least two years away. But hey, I can wait for this sort of return.

 

[Knobby22]

Hullo Snake , today made me feel almost sick but PCH last post was uplifting as they should be .45c at the moment !.)

Will hold for now .

Bob.

Bob

It is this sort of comment that brings a smile to all the technical traders out there like Wayne (no offence Wayne). They rely partly on human nature to make their money.

Regards

Knobby

 

[chicken]

Hi Snake,
Your in tune with me ( I like that ) :
As for Bemax, well there in my backyard so I do get to know stuff.

I have never held a position so huge in one stock before this Stock .

You take care Snake.
Bob.

I agree with you bob..this stock has a hugh upside potential..I expect their growths for this year to be up to 100% of last year why...their new venture is going full tack in victoria ..read all about it on www.bemax.com.au as far as their profit growth I expect a 100% increase....this stock has a hugh upside..funds managers shaking the tree...to shake out weak hands..bottom draw for this share...I expect it to be a lot higher than present price by year end...one for my retirement fund....cheap at present price

 

[Bobby]

I agree with you bob..this stock has a hugh upside potential..I expect their growths for this year to be up to 100% of last year why...their new venture is going full tack in victoria ..read all about it on www.bemax.com.au as far as their profit growth I expect a 100% increase....this stock has a hugh upside..funds managers shaking the tree...to shake out weak hands..bottom draw for this share...I expect it to be a lot higher than present price by year end...one for my retirement fund....cheap at present price

Hullo Chicken,
Yep I'm not to concerned at the moment, just wish they were this price last Friday when I bought again.

Have Fun Bob.

 

[$20shoes]

History repeating?

It seems uncanny how the price pattern from 28th October to around 28th Jan seems to be playing out again in a very similar pattern.
Let me take some technical licence - In the chart, I have divided price action into two distinct boxes. You can see that both boxes commence on the left with a sharp price rally, and then correct to a point where the price finds support (price is somewhat hammered out in both). A short time later the price gaps up before sellers take control, pushing the price down to its trendline. In both "boxes" the price action of finding support at the trendline (same area of support as the 'hammer" played out several weeks earlier) plays out over 2 months exactly.
Once again, it looks like there will be some testing of the trendline. Will this last for a month like in the 1st box? Let's hope for all holders, that history repeats - we may be in for a nice rally in the not too distant future.

 

[Bobby]

Re: History repeating?

It seems uncanny how the price pattern from 28th October to around 28th Jan seems to be playing out again in a very similar pattern.
Let me take some technical licence - In the chart, I have divided price action into two distinct boxes. You can see that both boxes commence on the left with a sharp price rally, and then correct to a point where the price finds support (price is somewhat hammered out in both). A short time later the price gaps up before sellers take control, pushing the price down to its trendline. In both "boxes" the price action of finding support at the trendline (same area of support as the 'hammer" played out several weeks earlier) plays out over 2 months exactly.
Once again, it looks like there will be some testing of the trendline. Will this last for a month like in the 1st box? Let's hope for all holders, that history repeats - we may be in for a nice rally in the not too distant future.

Most interesting chart $20shoes !.

Sure has got me tempted again, maybe just one more buy .

Bob.