Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

BMN - Bannerman Energy

Running out of time for this resource update by the years end:(

I'd like to see Bannerman break through that $4 mark again or in my eyes it looks something like a double top:confused:

Go Nuke

There is no double top threat now ... if it went BELOW the low in the middle (3.25 on Nov 29) then the D/top was on and a retrace to mid-2's was a possibility. As it is she has rebounded nicely and cleared that scenario. However there remains an obvious "resistance" level at the $4.05 area. One would imagine a break through that level will be very powerful indeed.

As Barry has mentioned, management have mentioned in a number of release that the interim JORC is now due end of January. They have stressed that this IS NOT a delay, but rather a direct result of deciding to include MORE area and depth in this resource upgrade. Therefore they have a significantly bigger ares to drill & assay & the drill cores are deeper as well.

So we can expect a real doozy of a resource upgrade end of January ... IMO, and based on my own calculations, this is going to blow us all away!

Cheers
 
Thank you very much guys for clearing up my misinformation on the December resource update and the formation (or lack there of ) of the double top.

To be honest I'm taking a great interest in charting of late, so i would have had to do some reseach on the makings of a "double top" in reference to volume etc but just didn't have the time day as I'm SUPPOSED to be getting treated for my 29th B'day!:bowdown:

Great to hear about the Jan news and yes I'm expecting the news to blow me awayanyway!! (Well compared to some who dont see the potential of bannerman;))

As for the court case regarding BMN....personaly I'm not concerned about it hence its not a topic worth discusing for me.

Happy new year guys
Now if u will all excuse me...:birthday:
 
Jeez has the volume dried up or what! I really hate low volumes like this. It doesn't give me much confidence because I always believe that the buyers always have the upper hand
 
Go Nuke

There is no double top threat now ... if it went BELOW the low in the middle (3.25 on Nov 29) then the D/top was on and a retrace to mid-2's was a possibility. As it is she has rebounded nicely and cleared that scenario. However there remains an obvious "resistance" level at the $4.05 area. One would imagine a break through that level will be very powerful indeed.

Cheers
I agree to an extent, but the double top is still a possibility if it doesn´t keep pushing up and breaking that support, as defined. That fact it´s bounced, so far, is very encouraging, but it´s still in play IMO. I described this back here. Let´s hope that support holds. Might depend on the fallout from the legal fiasco. Having said that, current funnymentals are sound as has been discussed at length, and any short term corrections are opportunities IMO.
 
Go Nuke

There is no double top threat now ... if it went BELOW the low in the middle (3.25 on Nov 29) then the D/top was on and a retrace to mid-2's was a possibility. As it is she has rebounded nicely and cleared that scenario. However there remains an obvious "resistance" level at the $4.05 area. One would imagine a break through that level will be very powerful indeed.

As Barry has mentioned, management have mentioned in a number of release that the interim JORC is now due end of January. They have stressed that this IS NOT a delay, but rather a direct result of deciding to include MORE area and depth in this resource upgrade. Therefore they have a significantly bigger ares to drill & assay & the drill cores are deeper as well.

So we can expect a real doozy of a resource upgrade end of January ... IMO, and based on my own calculations, this is going to blow us all away!

Cheers


Kariba, Just curious, do you think their will be much upside suprise in the january interim resource? I think the majority of the upside suprise will come in the march announcement with the better grades and strikes at depth.
They mentioned initially that they would drill to 300 meters for the upcoming announcement, i wonder with the extra time they are taking wether in fact this resource might include a greater depth. Based on your calculations, what figure are you looking for come jan and then come march?
 
My tip for the future for BMN has always been a takeover by probably RIO before they get to production and looks like things are getting interesting along those lines.

Rio on the prowl for explorer: report
January 6, 2008 - 11:52PM

BHP Billiton's takeover target Rio Tinto is believed to be considering making its own bid for Canadian uranium explorer Xemplar Energy.

The Anglo-Australian miner is reported to have become interested in Xemplar after it revealed it had discovered what is believed to be one of the world's biggest uranium deposits in Namibia.

Xemplar have discovered a new uranium province in the Warmbad area in Namibia, with over 14 alaskyte bodies that outcrop in an area of about 40 kilometres by 28 kilometres. They're currently drilling two. Big Yellow has a strike length of over 3 kilometres and an outcrop width in excess of 300 metres and Gaobis has a length of approximately 4 kilometres and an outcrop width in excess of 800 metres. Assays are pending but are probably going to be in the vicinity of 150-250 ppm I guess. So, depending on how deep these deposits run it could be an enormous project. Current mc is about $800m CAD I think.

What does this mean for Bannerman? I think in the short term it's probably going to at least put the spotlight on all Namibian explorers as potential takeovers, so I think some sort of takeover premium may start to be added to their value. If the bid does indeed come through, and if the lab results for the drilling show decent grades, a bidding war couldn't be out of the question between a couple of the big players. The loser will be looking for the next biggest potential project perhaps.

Having said that, it's all speculation at this stage. :2twocents
 
Wow thats interesting reading Kennas!

I'm cant keep up with all the numbers floating around these days but is that a whole lot bigger than what bannerman has discovered? Not including all their other untested areas.

Perhaps i should have bought up on todays weakness, though my holding in BMN is larger than it should be already (even though more results are due by the end of this month).

I really hope it pulls ERN out of the crappy situation their sp is in right now:(

All in all though i'm expecting it to be a good month for Bannerman, especially if anyone has taken notice of the storey you have just mentioned Kennas.

**Wow just looked at Xemplar chart..OMG hasn't it taken off in the last 12months!**
>70c- $8.70....OMG
Why cant BMN do that?

Where did you find that article by the way?
 

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Go Nuke

There is no double top threat now ... if it went BELOW the low in the middle (3.25 on Nov 29) then the D/top was on and a retrace to mid-2's was a possibility. As it is she has rebounded nicely and cleared that scenario. However there remains an obvious "resistance" level at the $4.05 area. One would imagine a break through that level will be very powerful indeed.

As Barry has mentioned, management have mentioned in a number of release that the interim JORC is now due end of January. They have stressed that this IS NOT a delay, but rather a direct result of deciding to include MORE area and depth in this resource upgrade. Therefore they have a significantly bigger ares to drill & assay & the drill cores are deeper as well.

So we can expect a real doozy of a resource upgrade end of January ... IMO, and based on my own calculations, this is going to blow us all away!

Cheers
As I mentioned above DT is still a chance here if the general market doesn't find some footing soon. XAO has just broken through significant support at 6200, which could send it quite deep. A 50 point cut will turn it around short term though I think...

In regard to the updated estimate due this month, I think it would pay us all to try and be a little more conservative with the figures we are expecting. I have a hunch that the old BMN 'buy the rumour, sell the fact' principle could be in play, and if everyone keeps going on about 100 and even 160Mt calls then anything closer to 100 could result in a sell off. We know that this upgrade is supposed to be around 100, but I see the numbers 160 flashing around a lot and the junior punters out there may be expecting this. It would be nice if it was a surprise to the upside!!!
 

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We are close ... very close!!

Today's trading was sending signals left right & centre!!

Over the last few weeks we have had BMN in the hands of sellers .. IMO the sellers have in fact been accumulators who have stacked the sell side with multiple "piddley" small sell orders.

Today was different ... from the first gong we saw buyers enter the market, and try as they may to hold them back, the sellers had to eventually retreat.

When will the JORC announcement come?

That is the question on the minds of everyone ...

Can I leave it any longer to buy in cheaply?

If they release the JORC early, any who delay will miss out!

Whatever the reasons for the trading today, it was a seminal day in my opinion & will mark the change in the trading of BMN from here on in.

We just need the DOW to behave itself & not give an opportunity to the "players" to push it down again.

Regardless, we are close ... very close

cheers
 
Kariba, Just curious, do you think their will be much upside surprise in the January interim resource? I think the majority of the upside surprise will come in the march announcement with the better grades and strikes at depth.
They mentioned initially that they would drill to 300 meters for the upcoming announcement, i wonder with the extra time they are taking whether in fact this resource might include a greater depth. Based on your calculations, what figure are you looking for come Jan and then come march?

Barry

I have bullish views on the Interim JORC & the Final JORC ... I wont mention numbers, as they are just opinions. But what i love about BMN is that they have "modestly" kept the 100m/lbs as their goal ... despite numerous increases in depth, length, width, grade & intercepts .. you figure!

I am pretty confident that the interim JORC will only be to 300m, if they go deeper they wont make it in time ... as it is I think it will be miraculous if they can get the interim out by end of JAN ... Not saying they wont, it is just the have to contend with the holiday season, and are in the hands of the assay labs.

Your question regards "upside surprise" is a very salient one! You know that the "market" is a hard beast to read or pre-empt, and it is also brutal when disappointed! However, if you please it, it will treat you as sweet as pie! So the question is: How is BMN generally viewed? IMO the market in general - and remember that includes the very important analysts, funds, instos, and brokers - has mainly focused on the 27mill lb JORC ... they dont read these b/boards & have not been exposed to rumours etc ... they focus on facts.

Fact: BMN currently have a JORC of only 27m/lbs.
Fact: The ore is low grade, and therefore not economical YET at that tonnage
Fact: The company has only EVER stated their target of 100m lbs
Fact: The scoping study determined that the mine economical at 100m lbs

Now imagine if BMN come out with an interim JORC of around 100m lbs ... what will the market think?

Fact: They have hit their target with ONLY the interim JORC
Fact: BMN now have an economical minable resource
Fact: This deposit has another 100m of the highest grade ore still to come!!

IMO, with 100m of the highest grade ore still to be added, anything around the 90m lb will be amazing to see confirmed & will be well received by the market. Knowing that at this point Anomaly A is confirmed as economical, and is a goer, making BMN Australia's next confirmed Uranium miner has to be well received by the market.

IMO, we can expect a massive re-rating to occur, more funds will buy, the Canadians who are steadily buying now will jump at BMN. From that moment on BMN will be a changed entity.

We are in very exciting times & the trading action has IMO confirmed that.

cheers
 
Barry

I have bullish views on the Interim JORC & the Final JORC ... I wont mention numbers, as they are just opinions. But what i love about BMN is that they have "modestly" kept the 100m/lbs as their goal ... despite numerous increases in depth, length, width, grade & intercepts .. you figure!

I am pretty confident that the interim JORC will only be to 300m, if they go deeper they wont make it in time ... as it is I think it will be miraculous if they can get the interim out by end of JAN ... Not saying they wont, it is just the have to contend with the holiday season, and are in the hands of the assay labs.

Your question regards "upside surprise" is a very salient one! You know that the "market" is a hard beast to read or pre-empt, and it is also brutal when disappointed! However, if you please it, it will treat you as sweet as pie! So the question is: How is BMN generally viewed? IMO the market in general - and remember that includes the very important analysts, funds, instos, and brokers - has mainly focused on the 27mill lb JORC ... they dont read these b/boards & have not been exposed to rumours etc ... they focus on facts.

Fact: BMN currently have a JORC of only 27m/lbs.
Fact: The ore is low grade, and therefore not economical YET at that tonnage
Fact: The company has only EVER stated their target of 100m lbs
Fact: The scoping study determined that the mine economical at 100m lbs

Now imagine if BMN come out with an interim JORC of around 100m lbs ... what will the market think?

Fact: They have hit their target with ONLY the interim JORC
Fact: BMN now have an economical minable resource
Fact: This deposit has another 100m of the highest grade ore still to come!!

IMO, with 100m of the highest grade ore still to be added, anything around the 90m lb will be amazing to see confirmed & will be well received by the market. Knowing that at this point Anomaly A is confirmed as economical, and is a goer, making BMN Australia's next confirmed Uranium miner has to be well received by the market.

IMO, we can expect a massive re-rating to occur, more funds will buy, the Canadians who are steadily buying now will jump at BMN. From that moment on BMN will be a changed entity.

We are in very exciting times & the trading action has IMO confirmed that.

cheers

Thanks kariba for your response,

Momentum is definately gaining, already up 7.33 percent to $3.38 on 457k through on the tsx tonight. Two good trades of 200k and 250k. Hopefully we will see it carry through to tomorrow on the asx.
 
As I mentioned above DT is still a chance here if the general market doesn't find some footing soon.
Kennas: What price point would confirm double top? It looks around 3.25 to me but you may have a more accurate analysis.
 
Kennas: What price point would confirm double top? It looks around 3.25 to me but you may have a more accurate analysis.
It is only confirmed when the support is confirmed broken between the peaks. So, yes, $3.25 is the support, but it looks very strong, going back not just in this recent period but back a year. (see the other highs and lows at this level) This says 2 things to me, that one, $3.25 should hold, and two, that if it does not then the target for the double top is very likely. This is just probabilities of course, anything can and will happen. So much for the change in sentiment for BMN the day before, I agree that it did look like a shift. Goes to show it ´s dangerous to call things on one days price action without follow up. I keep making this mistake all the time. :(
 
It is only confirmed when the support is confirmed broken between the peaks. So, yes, $3.25 is the support, but it looks very strong, going back not just in this recent period but back a year. (see the other highs and lows at this level) This says 2 things to me, that one, $3.25 should hold, and two, that if it does not then the target for the double top is very likely. This is just probabilities of course, anything can and will happen. So much for the change in sentiment for BMN the day before, I agree that it did look like a shift. Goes to show it ´s dangerous to call things on one days price action without follow up. I keep making this mistake all the time. :(


That is true, that is why I think when you use charts as a guide they should be used in conjunction with other factors. The sentiment had changed for bmn, climbing from 3.60 to 3.72 in early trade, following the gains from the previous day, however charts cannot show external pressures such as the dow tanking. Lgl was the same but in reverse, the charts were bearish, tanking from 4 bucks to 2.90 only for gold to bounce and suddenly lgl is a buy again.
Bmn held up ok on the tsx again last night despite the dow tanking again, dropping 2 percent. Has been some large trades going through which shows interest is gaining over there leading up to the announcement.
 
It is only confirmed when the support is confirmed broken between the peaks. So, yes, $3.25 is the support, but it looks very strong, going back not just in this recent period but back a year. (see the other highs and lows at this level) This says 2 things to me, that one, $3.25 should hold, and two, that if it does not then the target for the double top is very likely.
Well, if it holds under $3.25 and is confirmed Monday then DT is a real possibility. The other chart factor is the recent decending triangle that happens to give the same target price at what is a significant long term support area.

While this has moved with the markets at this time, you only need to overlay the XAO onto the BMN chart to see that in general this has moved of its own accord. And, if the theory is that this just moves with the market down, then the same argument could be used for moves up, which of course is heresay.

Long term holders will be happier if $3.25 holds and Helicoper Ben comes out with a .75 rate cut sooner rather than later.
 

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Jeez, took a real battering today. Closed at 3.01, down 7.67%. A sharp overreaction imo, at these levels I am seriously considering adding to my existing holdings of BMN. Considering no negative announcements, and no sharp decrease in the price of Uranium. :eek:
 
Announcement on the tsx, posted it all soley due to the fact it wasn't announcend on the asx friday, assume it will be announced monday.

Main points though:

1. further cost reductions
2. Upgrade will be announced this month

Bannerman Resources Ltd. Reports Goanikontes Anomaly A Operational Cost Reductions
Friday January 18, 2:47 pm ET

WEST PERTH, AUSTRALIA--(MARKET WIRE)--Jan 18, 2008 -- Bannerman Resources Ltd. (Toronto:BAN.TO - News)(ASX:BMN.AX - News) is pleased to announce an update to scoping study findings for Goanikontes Anomaly "A."

ADVERTISEMENT

- Opex costs substantially reduced via onsite acid production

- Opex reduction of US$3.18/lb U3O8 (at 26 kg/t acid consumption rate)

- Operating costs reduce to US$22.79/lb U3O8 (HPGR) and US$25.73/lb U3O8 (SAB)

- Capital cost increases to US$430m (HPGR) or US$467m (SAB)

- Capital payback period less than 2 years

- Additional benefit of co-generation of 14MW of power

Introduction

During the completion of the scoping study for Bannerman's Namibian project, Goanikontes Anomaly A, in September 2007 Independent Metallurgical Operations (IMO) identified a number of areas with the potential to reduce the operating costs in the proposed processing plant. The study highlighted that the cost of acid and acid consumption was the single most important component of the operational cost.

Acid Plant

Potential reductions in operating costs from the onsite production of sulphuric acid and the co-generation of power from exothermal heat produced from the burning of sulphur were the basis of a case study undertaken by IMO following the completion of the scoping study in 2007.

Any reduction in the cost of supplying sulphuric acid or in the consumption of acid in the processing flow sheet has a corresponding and significant effect on the overall project economics.

Two acid plants were considered in the study, both sulphur burning plants with co-generating power turbines; a standard plant and an enhanced heat recovery system plant (HRS). The study identified that the additional power production capable in the HRS plant did not justify the additional US$17 million in capital cost nor the additional water used in the cooling circuits of the HRS.

The study looked at various acid consumption rates. The maximum consumption rate of 30 kg/t as used in the scoping study, a rate of 26 kg/t based upon results from subsequent leaching testwork and a lower consumption rate of 20 kg/t. Recent leaching testwork has indicated that 20kg/t is achievable and is consistent with the consumption rate at Rossing.

Capital Costs

The quoted costs for a double contact sulphur burning plant are as follows:



- Standard 1,500 tpd acid plant with turbine US$70 million
- Acid plant with HRS and turbine US$87 million

The quotes were supplied by a South African engineering company engaged in the construction of acid plants and confirmed by IMO's independent study.

The standard acid plant generates a net power output (excluding the power required by the acid plant itself) of 14MW and the HRS option generates 17MW.

Additional infrastructure items would be required including portside handling equipment and stockpiling, on site storage tank and EPCM costs. Capital costs would subsequently increase to US$65.1 million and US$82.6 million for a 26 kg/t rated standard and HRS plant respectively (Table 2).

Total capital costs would increase to US$430 million (HPGR) and US$467 million (SAB) for the standard acid plant option.

This additional capital cost would be paid back in less than two years given reductions in the operating costs and the additional benefits of securing a major proportion of the proposed power requirements.

Operating Costs

The difference in operating costs for both plants was negligible and only the operating cost derived for the standard acid plant was used in the processing plant operating cost comparison.

The results of the case study indicate that:

- The cost of producing acid onsite represents approximately 60% of the cost of procurement.

- An overall reduction (at 26 kg/t) of US$3.18/lb U3O8 (in process plant operating) costs.

- This equates to a reduction of 22.8% for the HPGR and 18.9% for SAB circuits.



Table Process Plant Operating Cost - Variable Demand
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base Case SAB Option
Study Case ($US/lb U3O8) ($US/lb U3O8)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Acid Consumption Rate (kg/t) 20.0 26.0 30.0 20.0 26.0 30.0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Acid Procurement Cost 6.03 7.84 9.05 6.03 7.84 9.05
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Site Power - Acid Procurement 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.85 0.85 0.85
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
A. Total Cost - Acid Procurement 6.36 8.17 9.38 6.88 8.69 9.91
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Acid Production Cost 3.85 4.90 5.59 3.85 4.90 5.59
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Site Power - Acid Production 0.16 0.09 0.04 0.66 0.59 0.56
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
B. Total Cost - Acid Production 4.01 4.99 5.64 4.51 5.49 6.16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net Impact (A - B) 2.35 3.18 3.74 2.37 3.20 3.75
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Process Plant - Acid Procurement 12.14 13.95 15.16 15.12 16.93 18.14
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Process Plant - Acid Production 9.79 10.77 11.42 12.75 13.73 14.39
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
% Reduction 19.4 22.8 24.7 15.7 18.9 20.7
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Summary

The Goanikontes Anomaly A project has the potential to be a major producer of uranium on the world scene. The project is ideally located close to existing uranium mines and major infrastructure within a country that has recently been rated as the 2nd best country to explore in (Resource Stocks; 2007 World Risk Survey).

The Scoping Study has outlined the potential for an economic and robust project. The case study for on site acid production is part of the ongoing work that is refining the details for the project economics in areas identified from the Scoping Study with the potential to reduce the operating costs in the proposed processing plant.

On site acid production not only reduces the project costs but includes the security of supply against third party acid procurement and produces a significant component of the overall project power requirements.

Further improvements to the operating costs may be achievable and the work required to assess these improvements will be included within the scope of the Bankable Feasibility Study scheduled to commence in February 2008.

Bannerman is continuing to progress the project towards development in line with the schedule. A resource update for Goanikontes Anomaly A will be completed in January. Drilling is continuing onsite with five rigs and a final resource estimation will be completed following receipt of final drilling data in March.

The information in this report that relates to the Exploration Results, Mineral Resources or Ore Reserves of the projects owned by Bannerman Resources Ltd is based on information compiled by Mr Peter Batten, who is a Member of The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy and who has sufficient experience relevant to the style of mineralisation and types of deposits under consideration and to the activity which is being undertaken to qualify as Competent Person as defined in the 2004 Edition of the "Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves" and as a Qualified Person for purposes of National Instrument 43-101 of the Canadian Securities Administrators.. Mr Batten consents to the inclusion in the report of the matters based on his information in the form and context in which it appears.

IMO Pty Ltd has reviewed this report and considers that comments made with respect to the scoping study and metallurgical testwork undertaken to date are accurate.


Contact:

Contacts:
Bannerman Resources Limited
Peter Batten
Managing Director
+61 8 9381 1436
+61 (08) 9381 1068 (FAX)
Email: peter@bannermanresources.com.au
 
Announcement on the tsx, posted it all soley due to the fact it wasn't announcend on the asx friday, assume it will be announced monday.
Thanks for the heads up Barry.

Excellent news the opex is going to decrese which in the longer term is great news. Tick.

Disappointing news the capex has increased so much when the scoping study stated it would be under $400m with the scope to reduce. Obviously, no one can get it all right, and it seems to be based on poor advice. Cross.

A two year payback on the capex, means that at the moment, these guys will be making a good profit in relatively short time, as long as POU stays high, which by all accounts seems to be appreciated. And, if POU goes as anticipated, then the $45 price the scoping study was based on looks a little conservative, and should add significantly to the profits from production for the following 3-5 years, or until the turn around in the supply demand equation eventuates. Up for debate on that.

The bears are winning the battle at the moment obviously. Just where is the bottom? My tip is around the 5650 on the XAO longer term support line, which may equate with $2.50 ish for BMN. Or, the bounce on both the XAO and BMN yesterday, could have been a bottom. I still wouldn't discount anything though while the bears have control.
 
Thanks for the heads up Barry.

Excellent news the opex is going to decrese which in the longer term is great news. Tick.

Disappointing news the capex has increased so much when the scoping study stated it would be under $400m with the scope to reduce. Obviously, no one can get it all right, and it seems to be based on poor advice. Cross.

A two year payback on the capex, means that at the moment, these guys will be making a good profit in relatively short time, as long as POU stays high, which by all accounts seems to be appreciated. And, if POU goes as anticipated, then the $45 price the scoping study was based on looks a little conservative, and should add significantly to the profits from production for the following 3-5 years, or until the turn around in the supply demand equation eventuates. Up for debate on that.

The bears are winning the battle at the moment obviously. Just where is the bottom? My tip is around the 5650 on the XAO longer term support line, which may equate with $2.50 ish for BMN. Or, the bounce on both the XAO and BMN yesterday, could have been a bottom. I still wouldn't discount anything though while the bears have control.

I think the increase in capex costs is directly related to an increase in plant equipment used in the leaching process. This equipment whilst more expensive will attribute the further 3 us price reduction in production. So whilst it may seem dissapointing initially, over the long term of the project it adds value.

I think they will do a similiar thing to pdn with their offtake agreements and lock in 50 percent long term. I would also anticipate that they will get a similiar price to pdn being 90 us per pound. So i think there is significant upside possible to their 45 base price.

The announcement on friday said they would have the next update available this month, really isnt to many trading days left so i assume it will be some time this week. Soley for that reason i am not sure we will get down to the 2.50 mark, as also the dow doesnt trade monday night so the market may be flat waiting for their direction.Am looking to pick up a few more and then sell down post announcement. Should be an interesting week.
 
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