BMN - Bannerman Energy
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Well it was nice to see BMN finish UP today. I was a bit concerned that the increase in capex would send people selling but that doesn't seem to be the case.
I'm sure this is becasue of the update this month. With any luck some sort of confidence might return to the market to coincide with a great announcement.
I'm curious to know, do you guys "trade" Bannerman..ie sell off some at the highs like $4 ish, or do you just buy and hold even if the sp dips below the price you paid for it becasue of a longer veiw point in the company?
Just trying to get a broader prospective on how others play the stock market.
I have a long view on Bannerman, but don't know if I should be holding if I think the sp will temporarly dip below my buy in price.
I'm sure this is becasue of the update this month. With any luck some sort of confidence might return to the market to coincide with a great announcement.
I'm curious to know, do you guys "trade" Bannerman..ie sell off some at the highs like $4 ish, or do you just buy and hold even if the sp dips below the price you paid for it becasue of a longer veiw point in the company?
Just trying to get a broader prospective on how others play the stock market.
I have a long view on Bannerman, but don't know if I should be holding if I think the sp will temporarly dip below my buy in price.
With stocks that I have great confidence in, I tend to just buy at what seems a reasonable price, and then hold, don't want to trigger any tax. I believe it will break all time highs in short order so haven't seen any obvious over valuation which would tempt me to sell. Would more actively trade stocks I have less faith in, to try and get into a free carry position.
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Impressive day for BMN really, Makes me feel about 1% better than I otherwise would have. Even after being hammered down initially it came back very strongly today. Shall we celebrate? I guess not. Looking forward to Feb.
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Well I guess fortunately for me I fall into the tax bracket of between $30-$75K....and lets just say I'm along way from $75K, so tax isn't an issue for me even if I did sell my shares
The bears, shorters & bot-seller have had a field day the last few days, but sanity prevailed & BMN had a nice recovery on what was a shocker of an ASX day. One would think the rest of this week will see good demand & a rising SP by Friday. Monday is a public holiday, so I expect the JORC to be released Tues or Wed. It could be released on the TSX Monday night, or a Tuesday morning trading halt is my call.
Go Nuke
Their was NO INCREASE to the CAPEX per se. There was an ADDITION to it though. It might sound like semantics, but its not. When there is a rise in the CAPEX because of a "blowout," the market will punish a stock ... But the announcement was clear in stating that they will now procure ADDITIONAL items to build a sulfuric acid plant:
"Additional infrastructure items would be required including portside handling equipment and stockpiling, on site storage tank and EPCM costs. Capital costs would subsequently increase to US$65.1 million and US$82.6 million for a 26 kg/t rated standard and HRS plant respectively (Table 2). Total capital costs would increase to US$430 million (HPGR) and US$467 million (SAB) for the standard acid plant option."
So while they will be paying an extra $65 mill on an acid plant, they further say:
"This additional capital cost would be paid back in less than two years given reductions in the operating costs and the additional benefits of securing a major proportion of the proposed power requirements."
So the extra $65mill will be payed back in 2 years by the savings ... then it goes into the bottom line ... $34 million EXTRA profit EACH subsequent year of the mine life. The extra CAPEX is a small price to pay. And when you consider the world shortage in sulfuric acid, that wont get any better, they avoid supply delays, price hikes, and the like!!
I am pretty sure that most investors & analysts would have seen this announcement in a very positive light
cheers
By the way, the company has left it open for further decreases in opex.
Thi announced said that cost reductions were based on reduced acid consumption from 30 kg/t. to 26 kg/t. However, they further state:
"Recent leaching testwork has indicated that 20kg/t is achievable and is consistent with the consumption rate at Rossing."
So once again management blow me away by being conservative with a "base-case" figure rather, than titilate the market with "best-case" figures ... builds my confidence in them & continues to de-risk the project.
Improvement in grades & radiometric sorting will further reduce opex/lb figures that every day look more & more like miming Rossing results. Then when you think than BMN can sell to current U prices ($90/lb) instead of locked in $25.00/lb prices like Rossing, you get the sense of just how profitable a mine Anomaly A is going to be!
cheers
Thi announced said that cost reductions were based on reduced acid consumption from 30 kg/t. to 26 kg/t. However, they further state:
"Recent leaching testwork has indicated that 20kg/t is achievable and is consistent with the consumption rate at Rossing."
So once again management blow me away by being conservative with a "base-case" figure rather, than titilate the market with "best-case" figures ... builds my confidence in them & continues to de-risk the project.
Improvement in grades & radiometric sorting will further reduce opex/lb figures that every day look more & more like miming Rossing results. Then when you think than BMN can sell to current U prices ($90/lb) instead of locked in $25.00/lb prices like Rossing, you get the sense of just how profitable a mine Anomaly A is going to be!
cheers
HI,
Could someone well versed in T/A help me out with BMN pls in confirming or otherwise my research.
Bolinger banding indicates a breakout of the lower band, Relative strength indicators suggest the stock in approaching or in moderately oversold territory but the MACD would indicate that a downward trend has not yet reversed and volume is still well average.
From a T/A perspective this would suggest to a learner (me) that this stock still has the potential to continue a downward trend or at least has not turned the corner yet.
I understand other factors are also at play ie announcements etc....
Just after some help with the T/A pls.
Thanks all...
Russ
Could someone well versed in T/A help me out with BMN pls in confirming or otherwise my research.
Bolinger banding indicates a breakout of the lower band, Relative strength indicators suggest the stock in approaching or in moderately oversold territory but the MACD would indicate that a downward trend has not yet reversed and volume is still well average.
From a T/A perspective this would suggest to a learner (me) that this stock still has the potential to continue a downward trend or at least has not turned the corner yet.
I understand other factors are also at play ie announcements etc....
Just after some help with the T/A pls.
Thanks all...
Russ
Sean K
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Not much to really like about the short term chart really.
In regard to your points.
The break through the BB like it did, can be used as a short term trading indicator. Such a significant break can mean oversold. However, there are plenty of times a stock will continue to slide with the sp poking it's head through the BB to either side.
MACD looks terrible. That long gentle slide to the south is bad karma, and it's even more bearish breaking though the signal line to the downside like that. A more bullish look would be a crossover at the bottom and then the lines going back up through the line.
RSI is no oversold. Minus 80 and you are oversold, so some way to go.
Positives include the bounce off the 200 d ma, which is considered a support line, and the long tails on the last 2 candles indicating buying support on the dips.
The double top and descending triangle breaks I indicated in an earlier post gave a target of $2.50, which after tonights effort on the overseas indicies might still be a possibility, but it's resiliance yesterday gives some cause for optimism.
An important note is that none of these indicators can be used in isolation.
All this is great if you're short term trading this, a very active investor, or looking for good entry exit points off technicals.
Fundamentals haven't changed except for what's mentioned in the last ann which overall seemed positive for the future. This has generally just pulled back and consolidated after a very solid run off the $1.30 bottom, and it's MC had reached a level that the market thought was fair for its stage of development and risk. The next upgrade and comments on final resource, will be cause for further reflection on what type of MC it should have at this point. Then, there is overall market sentiment, appetite for risk, etc etc...
Wonder where the market bottom is?
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Sean K
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Well, it's gone much deeper than I thought, and the DT target has been reached. But golly, in this environment, who's to say what's going to happen next! Right in the lead up to the next estimate. What a shame. If we were in rising prices and appetite for risk this probably would have been pumping. Time will tell it's true value. For now, this line, technically, looks very strong, but if Europe and the US crash tomorrow, all bets are off!!
Must be made clear, in my mind, the figures from the scoping study and update have not changed. What has changed for this company? The primary one is appetite for risk IMO. While an explorer/developer and you have no earnings, and there are still questions, then you pay the price for market instability and loss of confidence. BMN is paying the price now...
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As a long term holder with no intention of selling prior to production, nothing has changed for me but it still feels awful seeing paper value shredded. The real effect though is that it will be harder to raise fresh capital and we can expect more dilution because of lower priced placements etc. A shame.
yes BMN's fall is the biggest dent on my portfolio today...
oh well, but how about PDN... i mean, that thing is actually producing stuff!
i am just annoyed i haven't bought anything in this turmoil, but it is easier to sleep at night by not buying in today...
oh well, but how about PDN... i mean, that thing is actually producing stuff!
i am just annoyed i haven't bought anything in this turmoil, but it is easier to sleep at night by not buying in today...
"A resource update for Goanikontes Anomaly A will be completed in January," from the last announcement dated on the 21st of this month. By that reasoning we have only a possible of four more trading days (with monday a holiday) to go. Hopefully we are somewhere near the bottom of this correction, but impossible to tell obviously. Would be nice to lose some of the volatility before the announcement, no way that is going to happen though. Still if we are close to the bottom and the announcement is good, will give a chance to maybe add to my position at possible good value with some risk removed before the markets eventually head north again.
A few decent orders going through today which is encouraging.
A few decent orders going through today which is encouraging.
Sean K
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I do hope the general market is not expecting too much from this anouncement. They've been quoted as saying 100m, so just 1m over that and I will be very happy. I'm a little concerned of the short term effects if the uber bullish out there are expecting numbers much larger that will result in a short term sell off. Let's be conservative...
I will be more interested in what else is said for potential future upgrades, and especially whether they have tested the metasediments, and the results. If they are mineralised like Rossing (40%), then the current resource expectations could be blown away.
Results due today, tomorrow, or Tuesday if on schedule. Or, they could release them Monday in Canada I suppose.
If they come in with around 100m lbs, with potential to upgrade, as expected, then the fund managers and big brokers will have to put it on the radar. Should provide pretty good support you'd imagine.
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Might I just add though, on the 30th of May last year when BMN announced their interim resource of 27Mil lbs I interpreted this as great news!!
So what did I do..I bought more and paid $3.45
And what did the share price do after that..yes it headed south to a low of $1.30 on 16th of August.
Now I dont really know how much more important this announcement will be, but I know I wont be racing out to buy more in a hurry based on what I thought was a good announcement the last time
NOW that Ive said that....quick go buy more because the sp will probably soar!!:eek3:
*The above comment was intended as a joke so don't go and buy more just because I said so*
So what did I do..I bought more and paid $3.45
And what did the share price do after that..yes it headed south to a low of $1.30 on 16th of August.
Now I dont really know how much more important this announcement will be, but I know I wont be racing out to buy more in a hurry based on what I thought was a good announcement the last time
NOW that Ive said that....quick go buy more because the sp will probably soar!!:eek3:
*The above comment was intended as a joke so don't go and buy more just because I said so*
I was a bit worried about this as well, having said that though I would think that most of the premium associated with the size has been wiped off with the downturn in the market in general. Anywhere close to the 100 will be great, how the market sees a figure below that is anyones guess, but given these conditions I think it will be punished. Hopefully we see an announcement on the tsx tonight.
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Looks to be some additional drill results at the bottom of their quarterly released today. Perhaps someone can decipher them in more detail but it's good to see results continuing to be positive at 300m+.
Sean K
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Some good intersections and grades in the recent results.
I was hoping for more word on potential U in the metasediments. I assumed they were testing for this over the past few months. Either they have found none, or the results are still in the lab. Perhaps it'll come out in the resource upgrade.
Halt is 90% sure to be the resource upgrade. They would have gone into the halt on receipt of the information to give time to write up the ann for release.
Unlikely to be capital raising, this will probably come with the final resource and to take it through BFS for the rest of the year and exploration drilling.
No mention of the litigation in the ann which is unusual. Either they think that it's insignificant, or just don't want the market to be pre-occupied with it. I would have liked an update though, and some more reassuring words perhaps. It is still a cloud that needs to clear.
I'm not sure what part of the schedule has changed but the last para in the summary is heartening.
I was hoping for more word on potential U in the metasediments. I assumed they were testing for this over the past few months. Either they have found none, or the results are still in the lab. Perhaps it'll come out in the resource upgrade.
Halt is 90% sure to be the resource upgrade. They would have gone into the halt on receipt of the information to give time to write up the ann for release.
Unlikely to be capital raising, this will probably come with the final resource and to take it through BFS for the rest of the year and exploration drilling.
No mention of the litigation in the ann which is unusual. Either they think that it's insignificant, or just don't want the market to be pre-occupied with it. I would have liked an update though, and some more reassuring words perhaps. It is still a cloud that needs to clear.
I'm not sure what part of the schedule has changed but the last para in the summary is heartening.
