BMN - Bannerman Energy

[insider]

nICE ONE kARIBA

I'm setting up an account with MF Global for CFDS and International Trading... I may have to consider this

 

[Sean K]

Any thought on the drop from $4.00 to $3.30, now $3.40 over just 5 days?

1. Profit taking?
2. A well needed break?
3. Risk aversion?
4. Investors needing money to pay margin calls?

Even though market conditions could point to 3 and 4, I'm actually leaning towards 1 and 2. The stock has had a champion run since capitulation day in August, and perhaps investors were just thinking time to reevaluate. For those who bought in at the lows perhaps they just want to take some profits and let the rest run? I'm sure 3 and 4 is a factor, but the funny's seem too good for me to be taking any off the table right now. Hopefully the JORC is at least up to expectations. Anything under 100m and I think there may be some short term weakness. Most are expecting at least 100 for AA.

 

[Broadside]

I think it is points 1 and 2, it ran hard and needed a breather and the wider market got the jitters. I topped up yesterday, seems like good buying but it may go lower...regardless I am confident it is excellent buying for the longer term.

I apologise for getting into a slanging match with you a couple of weeks ago, it was uncalled for.

I am excited by the potential of this company, when we consider the first target alone probably has upward of 100m lbs of Uranium (and scoping study costs < $30/lb) and we consider the company has said the remaining targets could and should be better...it makes buying around these levels seem like an excellent proposition.

 

[kariba]

Hi all

We now have three Canadian houses covering BMN ... quite a feat so early in the piece!

Westwind Partners - Target A$4.80
GMP Securities – Target C$5.00
Coremark – Target C$5.80


All of these are major TSX players and attract large customers, eg Coremark only deals with institutional clients & now has it on their recommendation list

Now Comsec has added it as a 'moderate to strong buy' here in Aus!!!

Guys, all the jigsaw pieces are coming together to reveal that have got onto something pretty special.

Kennas, the recent weakness in SP looks a litle "assisted" as well. The above organisations will all be buying stock here.

Finally, remember we have a resource upgrade due at end of December (assume early Jan) That is down to 300m and will be between of 110 - 130m/lbs. Then another at end of Mar qtr for down to 380m which should add another 30m /lbs. (based on simple maths, extrapolating 27mlb from 1.4klm x 80m to 2.3klm x 380m)

This is conservative & doesnt allow for mineralised metasediments & grade increase.

She is going to be a corker!

cheers

 

[Sean K]

Finally, remember we have a resource upgrade due at end of December (assume early Jan) That is down to 300m and will be between of 110 - 130m/lbs. Then another at end of Mar qtr for down to 380m which should add another 30m /lbs. (based on simple maths, extrapolating 27mlb from 1.4klm x 80m to 2.3klm x 380m)

This is conservative & doesnt allow for mineralised metasediments & grade increase.

The company is only aiming for 100m lbs I think, and I have always been assuming that they're going to extend it x 4, so I'm sticking to 100-110 for the first upgrade. I agree, a BIG kicker could be mineralised metasediments. If Rossing's is 40% of the total resourse, and this is so similar, imagine if they added in another 40% in the final upgrade. Up 5%+ in Canada on Friday, and with Labor getting in, focus for Aust U investors may go further off shore.

 

[kariba]

The company is only aiming for 100m lbs I think, and I have always been assuming that they're going to extend it x 4, so I'm sticking to 100-110 for the first upgrade. I agree, a BIG kicker could be mineralised metasediments. If Rossing's is 40% of the total resourse, and this is so similar, imagine if they added in another 40% in the final upgrade. Up 5%+ in Canada on Friday, and with Labor getting in, focus for Aust U investors may go further off shore.

I agree it is starting to look interesting indeed.

One thing with BMN ... Management have proved to be consistantly conservative in their statements. If you happen to actually see & listen to them when they quote the 100 m/lb target, you will see a knowing twinkle in their eyes!! They know the JORC will exceed their modest, stated target.

Remember that the initial 27 m/lbs was based on 1.4 klms strike ... if they expanded it to 2.4klms x 80m, we would have about 45 m/lbs.

Times that by 4: (177)!! Or even be conservative & times it by 3: (144)!! ... And that is on a 219ppm grade ... and it WILL be higher!!

Not saying it will get to those, but, IMO they are going to surprise the market bigtime!!

cheers

 

[Sean K]

I agree it is starting to look interesting indeed.

One thing with BMN ... Management have proved to be consistantly conservative in their statements. If you happen to actually see & listen to them when they quote the 100 m/lb target, you will see a knowing twinkle in their eyes!! They know the JORC will exceed their modest, stated target.

Remember that the initial 27 m/lbs was based on 1.4 klms strike ... if they expanded it to 2.4klms x 80m, we would have about 45 m/lbs.

Times that by 4: (177)!! Or even be conservative & times it by 3: (144)!! ... And that is on a 219ppm grade ... and it WILL be higher!!

Not saying it will get to those, but, IMO they are going to surprise the market bigtime!!

cheers

Yeah, having a listen to Peter B again and he is being conservative with 100 m lbs by the sounds. He is also just talking AA too of course. With 20 other targets (is that right?), then in the long run there could be 100s of millions of pounds there. Could be.

I just have two points about your above statements.

I think 4 x 45 = 180, not 177. Your calculator must have a glitch. Nonetheless, these figures, which seem reasonable, a way over the 100m lb estimate from the company. Also, I don't know how Coffey could be so far out with their extrapolation. They have used the same grades, which we know will be higher, but they have gone out to 2.2km and 350m depth, which is actually more than 4 times the interim 80m depth. Just. Perhaps the answer is the next point.

By a cursory look at the drilling maps for AA the deposit looks to thin to the south. Not sure what it looks like under the ground as I've only see a cross section for Drill Section 94 (I think), so it's a little bit of an unknown. So, simple extrapolation of the 1.5km strike to 2.3km may be a little much. However, I'm not clear on what step out drilling they've done to the south, so it may even be wider. Plus, I think they're drilling that alaskite anomaly further to the south which could add some pounds in.

Having said that, with the information available, extrapolating it how you have is probably reasonable. I certainly like the numbers, but I'm trying to be conservative, as always.

 

[kariba]

I think 4 x 45 = 180, not 177. Your calculator must have a glitch. Nonetheless, these figures, which seem reasonable, a way over the 100m lb estimate from the company. Also, I don't know how Coffey could be so far out with their extrapolation. They have used the same grades, which we know will be higher, but they have gone out to 2.2km and 350m depth, which is actually more than 4 times the interim 80m depth. Just. Perhaps the answer is the next point.

By a cursory look at the drilling maps for AA the deposit looks to thin to the south. Not sure what it looks like under the ground as I've only see a cross section for Drill Section 94 (I think), so it's a little bit of an unknown. So, simple extrapolation of the 1.5km strike to 2.3km may be a little much. However, I'm not clear on what step out drilling they've done to the south, so it may even be wider. Plus, I think they're drilling that alaskite anomaly further to the south which could add some pounds in.

Having said that, with the information available, extrapolating it how you have is probably reasonable. I certainly like the numbers, but I'm trying to be conservative, as always.

Hiya Kennas

Actually it's 4 x 44.4 to be exact which = 177.4

No problems with being conservative, much better to expect less & receive more!!

You are correct that the deposit will not be uniform in shape, so we can expect less mineralisation at the edges. I notice in the latest satelite photo with drill positions they show more drill holes in the area you circled, so it will be interesting to see those results. Some of the holes further South also have very high grades, also some holes have ended in mineralisation at 350m, hence they will be putting down cores to 400m to check the depth extent.

I know they are VERY confident that base resouce will be 100 m/lbs, from then on, time will reveal all.

I am VERY bullish, but happy to be tempered!!

cheers

 

[gfresh]

I also believe monday will see the start of a further major uptrend.. as Labor's victory may have many abandoning local U stocks, and looking for those with overseas operations. It seems likely stocks like BMN may be the beneficiary.

The pull-off the $4.00 mark was hopefully only a small breather before we can go to greater heights.. If we see $3.40 as the support line, monday's action should be quite telling as to future direction.

 

[Sean K]

There's been discussion of a 'double top' at HC which on the surface could be a possibility. It certainly looks like a possibility with one distinct peak and rejection at the resistance, but it doesn't quite fill enough of the qualifications in my mind to be a 'double top' at this stage.

For interested parties, here is an outline of what a double top is:

Double Top (Reversal)

The double top is a major reversal pattern that forms after an extended uptrend. As its name implies, the pattern is made up of two consecutive peaks that are roughly equal, with a moderate trough in-between.

Although there can be variations, the classic double top marks at least an intermediate change, if not long-term change, in trend from bullish to bearish. Many potential double tops can form along the way up, but until key support is broken, a reversal cannot be confirmed. To help clarify, we will look at the key points in the formation.

Prior Trend: With any reversal pattern, there must be an existing trend to reverse. In the case of the double top, a significant uptrend of several months should be in place.

First Peak: The first peak should mark the highest point of the current trend. As such, the first peak is fairly normal and the uptrend is not in jeopardy (or in question) at this time.

Trough: After the first peak, a decline takes place that typically ranges from 10 to 20%. Volume on the decline from the first peak is usually inconsequential. The lows are sometimes rounded or drawn out a bit, which can be a sign of tepid demand.

Second Peak: The advance off the lows usually occurs with low volume and meets resistance from the previous high. Resistance from the previous high should be expected. Even after meeting resistance, only the possibility of a double top exists. The pattern still needs to be confirmed. The time period between peaks can vary from a few weeks to many months, with the norm being 1-3 months. While exact peaks are preferable, there is some leeway. Usually a peak within 3% of the previous high is adequate.

Decline from Peak: The subsequent decline from the second peak should witness an expansion in volume and/or an accelerated descent, perhaps marked with a gap or two. Such a decline shows that the forces of demand are weaker than supply and a support test is imminent.

Support Break: Even after trading down to support, the double top and trend reversal are still not complete. Breaking support from the lowest point between the peaks completes the double top. This too should occur with an increase in volume and/or an accelerated descent.

Support Turned Resistance: Broken support becomes potential resistance and there is sometimes a test of this newfound resistance level with a reaction rally. Such a test can offer a second chance to exit a position or initiate a short.

Price Target: The distance from support break to peak can be subtracted from the support break for a price target. This would infer that the bigger the formation is, the larger the potential decline.

Looking at the 2 year chart, it certainly seems to have one peak, so far, but the establishment of a second 'peak' obviously depends on what happens to the sp from here. If the sp drops to the trough at $1.30, and breaks that support, then the target, according to the general principles, will be -$1.40. I'm not if that is possible at this time. So, double top? Perhaps nay.

For another perspective, I have added some very basic EW to the 2 year chart below with what looks to be the classis 5 wave up, 3 wave down, and we have now perhaps completed a wave 1 up, with wave 2 in progress. I considered $3.50 to be good support, but slightly longer term $3.25 looks stronger. Considering wave 3 up is never the shortest wave, there seems to be some potential for this to break up considerably. Having said that, I have very little understanding of EW, so the sp could probably go anywhere from here.

 

[the barry]

There's been discussion of a 'double top' at HC which on the surface could be a possibility. It certainly looks like a possibility with one distinct peak and rejection at the resistance, but it doesn't quite fill enough of the qualifications in my mind to be a 'double top' at this stage.

For interested parties, here is an outline of what a double top is:


Looking at the 2 year chart, it certainly seems to have one peak, so far, but the establishment of a second 'peak' obviously depends on what happens to the sp from here. If the sp drops to the trough at $1.30, and breaks that support, then the target, according to the general principles, will be -$1.40. I'm not if that is possible at this time. So, double top? Perhaps nay.

For another perspective, I have added some very basic EW to the 2 year chart below with what looks to be the classis 5 wave up, 3 wave down, and we have now perhaps completed a wave 1 up, with wave 2 in progress. I considered $3.50 to be good support, but slightly longer term $3.25 looks stronger. Considering wave 3 up is never the shortest wave, there seems to be some potential for this to break up considerably. Having said that, I have very little understanding of EW, so the sp could probably go anywhere from here.

Im not to sure how much you can take from the charts at the moment. Tommorrow the bottom might fall out of the dow again, a week from now the company might release a resource well above estimations, or well below for that matter. Futhermore the apparently u loving canadians might take a real shine to ban (tsx code for bmn).As we speak 200,000 plus ban stocks have traded on the tsx still at a premium to current prices (significant trades of 100k and 90k). Well above the numbers that have been going through prior.
For mind there is to many variables to take anything from the charts at present. One thing is for sure though it is going to be a very interesting ride up until the point the next interim resource is announced.

 

[kariba]

Awesome wolume on the TSX last night!!!

Over 430,000 sold & a number of 100k parcels via Cormark to their institutional clients.

The fun is starting, leading up to JORC upgrade in a month or so!

Cheers

 

[Synergy]

Is this the start of the good news expected in December?

Highlights:

• Spectacular intercept from Anomaly A: 235m @ 389 ppm eU3O8
• Mineralisation confirmed at deeper levels from diamond drilling:
57m @ 375 ppm eU3O8 from 398 to 450m vertical.
• Numerous higher grade and wide intercepts from infill drilling;
111m @ 269 ppm, 144m @ 223 ppm, 33m @ 612 ppm, 18m @ 583 ppm,
36m @ 447 ppm U3O8
________________________________________________________

 

[Sean K]

Is this the start of the good news expected in December?

Highlights:

• Spectacular intercept from Anomaly A: 235m @ 389 ppm eU3O8
• Mineralisation confirmed at deeper levels from diamond drilling:
57m @ 375 ppm eU3O8 from 398 to 450m vertical.
• Numerous higher grade and wide intercepts from infill drilling;
111m @ 269 ppm, 144m @ 223 ppm, 33m @ 612 ppm, 18m @ 583 ppm,
36m @ 447 ppm U3O8
________________________________________________________

There are a couple of enormous intercepts there.

I'm most impressed with the high grades. 33m at 612ppm is sensational. And confirmation high grades at depth as well. They are much better grades than I was expecting.

 

[the barry]

There are a couple of enormous intercepts there.

I'm most impressed with the high grades. 33m at 612ppm is sensational. And confirmation high grades at depth as well. They are much better grades than I was expecting.

Awesome. How big is this resource going to be? This resource alone will be a company maker, crazy when you think they still have 37 of 40 kilometers of drill targets to go.

 

[Rafa]

This is some news...
:jump::jump::jump:

Key resistance for me its the $4.00.... its tried twice now to break it and failed miserably... even today it hit $4...

Let see what happens technically, but fundamentally, things are looking very rosy...

 

[Sean K]

awesome. how big is this resource going to be? This resource alone will be a company maker, crazy when you think they still have 37 of 40 kilometers of drill targets to go.

With the diamond hole intercepting high grades and good widths, and the largest intercept having almost double the last largest ppm, then it could be enormous. Too early to pluck a figure I reakon without detailed cross sections but the next resource due in Jan should be much higher than 100m lbs by those numbers. I've topped up again on this news. I think it's very significant in improving the project economics, as if it needed it.

 

[panikhide]

Looks like there was some large volume at about 10:20am which pushed the price up to $4. Interesting to see where is goes to now since it has hovered around $3.65-$3.80 for the last hour or so. Maybe it will do its usual end of day fall-off before more action tomorrow?

 

[Go Nuke]

Ah! Fantastic

Its news like this that makes me feel warm and fuzzy inside that over 50% of my puny portfolio is with BMN

It helps me sleep at night with my HLX screw up..lol.
Indeed hopefully this is the start of more good news to come from Bannerman.

And GREAT to see those results at 400+ metres!

 

[the barry]

Toronto update,

Last trade,

3.49 CAD = 3.94559 AUD

Hopefully we will follow suit and head back to the 4 dollar mark today. Dow well up again will help.