BLR - Black Range Minerals

[Wysiwyg]

I feel extremely envious..slightly gyped and a touch of spitefulness.

 

[Caliente]

glad its finally showing glimpses of its promise. The real returns are yet to come. I'm not afraid to call long on BLR as my pick for 2007.

For the full story please see the AGM presentation...

Best of luck to all holders...
Position - Mid Term Hold (1 Year).

 

[mickqld]

glad its finally showing glimpses of its promise. The real returns are yet to come. I'm not afraid to call long on BLR as my pick for 2007.

For the full story please see the AGM presentation...

Best of luck to all holders...
Position - Mid Term Hold (1 Year).

Hey Caliente I agree with your thoughts that there's more to come from this one. Do you have some sort of SP target for the 12 month period. I jumped on at 8 cents 2 weeks ago wish I had bought more but hey you can't have everything. I think that at the moment BLR & WMT are 2 of the most undervalued stocks with loads of potential.

 

[Caliente]

Hi mickqld, in keeping in line with forum rules I cant just blindly post a price valuation...

However, Lindo, a member at Hotcopper has posted his F/A of the net value of the Uranium at Blackrange alone. I think it is a fair and balanced post so I'm including it for your perusal.

BLR's market capitalisation (fully diluted; 524m shares, 110m opps) 634.2m shares x $0.135 = $85,617,000. Let's say $85m market cap.

EV / pound JORC resource - the average for ASX U developers is $8.10 (per Agronaut Capital estimates - Nov 06). Refer to page 27 of WHE most recent investor presentation.

Therefore if we factor in only uranium exposure for BLR for the purpose of this valuation - let's say 15mlb pound for Taylor Ranch & 5mlb pound for the rest. Not factoring in imminent announcement of further acquisitions mind you. So 20 mlb pound.

Market cap $85m / 20mlb = $4.25 / lb

Therefore our valuation / pound is just over half (52.5%) of what other ASX developers are valued at.

I believe given the price movements in U developers since Nov 06 the $8.10 average would be substantially higher + rise in spot price since then - so we can safely double the current sp and come up with $0.27.

So our implied value based on estimated jorcs for uranium alone is $0.27. Add in our other base metals exposure and you begin to see we are seriously undervalued at present.

As we get close to JORC estimates (Taylor Ranch) being released I am fully confident we will be near if not past this point (27c). Factor in other announcements concerning further tenements and copper interests then this really is a no brainer IMHO.

I hope all the above makes sense. If not I highly recommend reading pages 26-27 of Wildhorse Energy's most recent investor presentation released last week.

I have simply applied WHEs methods of calculation to Black Range Minerals. Would be interested in other posters feedback concerning this valuation.

PS - I think these calculations are conservative imo.

cheers, Lindo

I myself am placing most of BLR's value on the uranium alone. However, you know that Koonenberry exists as well.

"In July 2006 The Company announced that, following its intensive exploration programmes, it had increased the JORC-compliant resource at the Koonenbery Base Metal Project by more than 1000%, to:

5.75Mt at 1.03% Cu, 0.35% Zn, 2.30g/t Ag and 0.05g/t Au

containing approximately 60,000 tonnes of copper."

I'm placing virtually no value on this at all, as I feel the company should focus its energies on rapidly developing U at the moment. Lets value this in-ground copper at 5%.

Current LME Cash seller spot is $US 5,671.50.

So [60000 tonnes x $US5671.5] / 0.8 (us-aus conversion) x 0.05 (5% in ground valuation)

= $A 21 268 125.

Remember this JORC assay is from July 2006, tonnage may change (upgrade) since then. I feel that my valuation of in-ground assets at 5% is conservative and places minimal value on this resource.

I'm applying NO value to the new exploration at Crookwell/Mulloon or the acquisition of the high grade Ferris-Haggerty copper deposit;

side note: (up to 90% interest) that has a main orebody averaging 8 to 10 metres in width, but is up to 20 metres wide in places. The orebody grades 6% to 8% copper and 3 g/t to 4 g/t gold..

It's hard accurately value a company and place a price, but I think you can agree BLR has a solid base and a stable of excellent projects in the wing for 2007. Hopefully, this can help you make up your mind about the intrinsic value of the company.

additional research notes :
http://www.blackrangeminerals.com/pdfs/IntersuisseResearchNote22Jan07.pdf

 

[mickqld]

Hi mickqld, in keeping in line with forum rules I cant just blindly post a price valuation...

However, Lindo, a member at Hotcopper has posted his F/A of the net value of the Uranium at Blackrange alone. I think it is a fair and balanced post so I'm including it for your perusal.

BLR's market capitalisation (fully diluted; 524m shares, 110m opps) 634.2m shares x $0.135 = $85,617,000. Let's say $85m market cap.

EV / pound JORC resource - the average for ASX U developers is $8.10 (per Agronaut Capital estimates - Nov 06). Refer to page 27 of WHE most recent investor presentation.

Therefore if we factor in only uranium exposure for BLR for the purpose of this valuation - let's say 15mlb pound for Taylor Ranch & 5mlb pound for the rest. Not factoring in imminent announcement of further acquisitions mind you. So 20 mlb pound.

Market cap $85m / 20mlb = $4.25 / lb

Therefore our valuation / pound is just over half (52.5%) of what other ASX developers are valued at.

I believe given the price movements in U developers since Nov 06 the $8.10 average would be substantially higher + rise in spot price since then - so we can safely double the current sp and come up with $0.27.

So our implied value based on estimated jorcs for uranium alone is $0.27. Add in our other base metals exposure and you begin to see we are seriously undervalued at present.

As we get close to JORC estimates (Taylor Ranch) being released I am fully confident we will be near if not past this point (27c). Factor in other announcements concerning further tenements and copper interests then this really is a no brainer IMHO.

I hope all the above makes sense. If not I highly recommend reading pages 26-27 of Wildhorse Energy's most recent investor presentation released last week.

I have simply applied WHEs methods of calculation to Black Range Minerals. Would be interested in other posters feedback concerning this valuation.

PS - I think these calculations are conservative imo.

cheers, Lindo

I myself am placing most of BLR's value on the uranium alone. However, you know that Koonenberry exists as well.

"In July 2006 The Company announced that, following its intensive exploration programmes, it had increased the JORC-compliant resource at the Koonenbery Base Metal Project by more than 1000%, to:

5.75Mt at 1.03% Cu, 0.35% Zn, 2.30g/t Ag and 0.05g/t Au

containing approximately 60,000 tonnes of copper."

I'm placing virtually no value on this at all, as I feel the company should focus its energies on rapidly developing U at the moment. Lets value this in-ground copper at 5%.

Current LME Cash seller spot is $US 5,671.50.

So [60000 tonnes x $US5671.5] / 0.8 (us-aus conversion) x 0.05 (5% in ground valuation)

= $A 21 268 125.

Remember this JORC assay is from July 2006, tonnage may change (upgrade) since then. I feel that my valuation of in-ground assets at 5% is conservative and places minimal value on this resource.

I'm applying NO value to the new exploration at Crookwell/Mulloon or the acquisition of the high grade Ferris-Haggerty copper deposit;

side note: (up to 90% interest) that has a main orebody averaging 8 to 10 metres in width, but is up to 20 metres wide in places. The orebody grades 6% to 8% copper and 3 g/t to 4 g/t gold..

It's hard accurately value a company and place a price, but I think you can agree BLR has a solid base and a stable of excellent projects in the wing for 2007. Hopefully, this can help you make up your mind about the intrinsic value of the company.

additional research notes :
http://www.blackrangeminerals.com/pdfs/IntersuisseResearchNote22Jan07.pdf

Geez mate what a fantastic summary you just provided thank you very much. I had an inkling of maybe 32 cents for this one once all the U projections were confirmed but as you say the copper projects are certainly the x factor here. You have certainly confirmed my thoughts that BLR is very much undervalued at the moment. Once again thanks for your time and knowledge.

 

[soul]

BLR have been a cracker.

U price still raising non stop and I will tip this as the best U performer this year.

 

[mickqld]

BLR up 15% in the last half hour anyone know whats up?

 

[sleeper88]

BLR up 15% in the last half hour anyone know whats up?

no idea, but lucky i bought some at 13c this morning, been in the queue @ 13c since Friday last week.

 

[MalteseBull]

this hasn't even started trading and orders are coming in a plenty,

2 x 1million at 15.5 and 15


someone update me on this stock? next dyl??

 

[Fab]

this hasn't even started trading and orders are coming in a plenty,

2 x 1million at 15.5 and 15


someone update me on this stock? next dyl??

Why should this stock be the next DYL?

 

[Out Too Soon]

If HC & co are pushing it count me out! :

 

[Caliente]

hey maite - I feel the same way as you do about people ramping stocks. If u read my post above, it has what I feel are mine, and others fair and balanced opinions about the stock. If anything I'm erring on the side of caution.

As for HC, virtually every listed stock on the ASX is ramped there. I assume this means you invest in no australian shares then?

 

[siempre33]

Hi Caliente!
I was checking out the BLR website and notice they have a JV in Wyoming with Uranerz....a co. I know in-depth, as they have the very best mngmnt. team in the NoAm U sector imo....Glen Catchpole is the CEO of URZ, and he only JV.s with top quality people, so your pick must be a good one....
best of luck...may you finish 2nd....to me...LOL..

http://www.blackrangeminerals.com/

 

[Wysiwyg]

BLR have been a cracker.

U price still raising non stop and I will tip this as the best U performer this year.

Interesting you should tip as the best U performer.I don`t agree with you.My doubts exist with the company seriously aiming to achieve production.My first thoughts were why the Americans would give up their leases to an Aussie junior at present and predicted U prices.I think it will be proven up and shelved at the permit/licence stage.Tooo much rigmarole.I just don`t think they are the real deal.Sorry if you see any gloss off the polished image.What you are thinking may be right... and that is not very often does everyone think the same way I do about a stock.Good luck with ya choice .

Now the Koonenberry number, well that would stand a better chance if they ever get past the big numbers stage.

I hope they prove me wrong. :grenade:

 

[Caliente]

thx for your post wsiwyg. Nice to see balance in the thread. The most dangerous situation is when everyone is blind to the potential risks that exist in the stockmarket.

I'm getting tired, and worried about the people blatantly hyping up a stock as the next "insert successful company here".

Now everyone back to business.

edit - hi Siempre! good luck in the comp, great to see an American here. Been to california once a few years back and loved it! Now I keep in touch through the "O.C.", not quite the same is it...! anyway, good to have u in the forums.

Cheers
-Cali

 

[Wysiwyg]

Lindo, a member at Hotcopper has posted his F/A of the net value of the Uranium at Blackrange alone. I think it is a fair and balanced post so I'm including it for your perusal.
I myself am placing most of BLR's value on the uranium alone. However, you know that Koonenberry exists as well.

Howdy...I read that pump by ~LINDO~ and what I think is he has been secretly holding millions upon millions of BLR shares and only recently (having been trekking the jungles of the Amazon for several years) returned home..plugged in his computer..and bingo..what he knew all along was now coming to fruition.

The end.Have a nice trade.

 

[Caliente]

Dont know how to respond to that maite. The facts are pretty clear out on the table, and are correlated by the companies own reports.

Expectations are for;

10-15m lb at Taylor Ranch.

2 & 3m lb at eagle/cyclone.

with room for expansion.

In fact, while we're here I might as well mention the high grade Ferris-Haggerty project. Once again, directly from the company reports,

- Estimated historic production of 10,000 tonnes of copper

- Average grade of historic production ~20%Cu

- Exploration target of 55,000 tonnes of contained copper

Do you plan on disputing this as well?

 

[Wysiwyg]

Dont know how to respond to that maite. The facts are pretty clear out on the table, and are correlated by the companies own reports.

Expectations are for;

10-15m lb at Taylor Ranch.

2 & 3m lb at eagle/cyclone.

with room for expansion.

In fact, while we're here I might as well mention the high grade Ferris-Haggerty project. Once again, directly from the company reports,

- Estimated historic production of 10,000 tonnes of copper

- Average grade of historic production ~20%Cu

- Exploration target of 55,000 tonnes of contained copper

Do you plan on disputing this as well?

Why haven't the Americans fired up these assets. Unless some company financially steps in these guys are just going to prove up resources until everyone goes ho hum more big numbers and you have been around long enough to know that will happen.

 

[TradeStats]

The argument that BLR may never get to production and may shelved it at the permit/licence stage (Too much rigmarole) could be applied to over half of the current U findings in Australia. Getting State approval to go into production in most states is difficult, but it still doesn't seem to stop the SP of companies with U findings in Australia going up.

I haven't seen anything to suggest that BLR would not proceed with production, but we will have wait and see.

There however has been a lot of talk about BLR in the past month, including from brokers, this may just be ramping, but at this stage the SP appears to be rising well and the potential to make profit is looking good.

The SP in the last couple days would appear to increased its rate of increase




These are personal opinions only, I am not a financial advisor, but merely noting those which are stock performing for me as an individual. Individuals should undertake their own investigations before investing in a stock.

 

[Wysiwyg]

The argument that BLR may never get to production and may shelved it at the permit/licence stage (Too much rigmarole) could be applied to over half of the current U findings in Australia. Getting State approval to go into production in most states is difficult, but it still doesn't seem to stop the SP of companies with U findings in Australia going up.

No, it`s all good mate. I'm just jealous. :aufreg: