GLX - Gulf X

[Bushman]

Would someone be kind enough to quickly explain why GLX has gone so bad over the past week or so after getting up to 20c.
The announcement from the other day with updates on drilling seemed to be pretty good so i would of thought we would see the sp rise a little.
I know i should do my own research, which i have, but im still learning.

Specs like GLX cop it the most on market capitulation days. Everything was hammered yesterday.

Irony is the higher the price crude oil, the more compelling the GLX business case. Tell that to the stampeding herd?

 

[springhill]

Would someone be kind enough to quickly explain why GLX has gone so bad over the past week or so after getting up to 20c.
The announcement from the other day with updates on drilling seemed to be pretty good so i would of thought we would see the sp rise a little.
I know i should do my own research, which i have, but im still learning.

dont forget this ran from 7 or so cents not long ago rob, and yes as with the previous poster specs will get hammered in days like these, take CXY for example... was belted back to 12 cents yest, but back up today. Speaking from personal ideology, i never buy for the short term... i pick what i thing are good long term specs and am willing to hold for minimum 12 months. I saw it as a great opportunity to pick some more up yesterday at 14.5 and if it dips below those levels will continue to do so. Looking forward to drill results possibly due at EOM sometime

 

[AndrewonASF]

Hey guys,

I'm new here (to this forum, been trading for nearly 2 years though). Just a note on GLX first up. Do the valuations on 30,000 barrels of oil per day, then consider;

1. The demand from South Asutralia Mining (Olympic dam + Oxianana Proj. to name 2).
2. Then consider the management team (experience from Sasol a big player here).
3. Then consider the roots of this. The Executive Director started this project (Syngas) then was swollowed up by GulfX. If anyone management team is going to care about a project, it is going to be this one where the Exec D. is the founder.
4. Inflation will only help this project whilst it hinders other speccies. Power is free (read the presentation), and the products are high end inflationary (Diesel and Power).

This is a $9 - $13 dollar stock come 2015. What happens to the share price in between then is anybody's guess. But really, if you have the ability to not be desperate for cashflow, load it up.

Check out calcs and what I have stated for yourselves.

 

[robzilla07]

"$9-$13 stock"
Bit extreme don't you think?
If you are right however i'll invite everyone on the forum to stay in my castle in the south of france.
Eagerly awaiting 2015...

 

[Datsun Disguise]

"$9-$13 stock"
Bit extreme don't you think?
If you are right however i'll invite everyone on the forum to stay in my castle in the south of france.
Eagerly awaiting 2015...

Will you supply the linen or do we bring our own?



Welcome Andrew, I think we all recognize the potential of GLX - it is a great story, and I'm all for $9 - 13! Could you give us your premise for getting to this figure? A Market Cap figure might be more useful as we can't see what type of figures you've used for issued shares etc.

One thing that is certain about GLX's future is further share issues for getting this project going - and the subsequent dilution. Question is how many shares will need to be issued and when, that will drive the ultimate value of our holdings.

Robzilla - I'd like a room with views of the mountains please - and an ensuite. Cheers!
DD

 

[AndrewonASF]

DD & Robzilla,

Here is what is going through my head on calcs (dramatically simplified);

30,000 barrels per day x 300 (days production per year) x $200/barrel earnt
* I use $200 for these reasons;

1. First it sounds like a minimum to me with a speculative thought.
2. The power generation and sulphur will cover the other costs (no cost for power also)
3. Don't forget it's premium (probably transport and jet fuel) and the demand would most probably be local.

Above calc = $1.8b earnigs, say a P/E ratio of 5? = $9B Market Cap
* Altona rsources (listed on the London, AIM has a Market Cap of approx. $3.5B but have a resource about 5 times and are only 12 months ahead of GLX, still nowhere near production, infact may only get there one year before GLX or at the same time)
About 350M total shares accountable now. Let's assume a total of 1B would have been handed out to get the project to completion.

Therefore $9B/1B = $9/share.

Alter the $200 per barrel to $300 I think you get $13 odd dollars.

Don't forget, no earnings from the power or sulphur are included, and no overheads savings from not paying for power are used either. Further, this is a 2015-2016 assessment. Management still have to get the job done between here and there. Altona's share price is 4.60 Great British Punds.

Glad to hear your thoughts here.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Lachlan McKenzie-McHarg
Gulfx Ltd: Streaming Away?
By Lachlan McKenzie-McHarg, 23 Jun 2008
Gulfx (GLX) has been on my watchlist for a number of days
whilst the stock traced out a bullish ascending triangle pattern. GLX is involved in the Syngas project which is based around premium diesel. The company claims premium diesel is more efficient and cleaner than traditional diesel used today.

Fantastic.

Looking at the daily chart above, the recent activity is exceptionally bullish.

Now that`s better, getting to the point.

Ascending triangles such as these are very reliable.

Oh yes of course.

However, if the stock can manage to break through, I would suggest a move into much higher levels with an initial target of $0.68.

Production anticipated for 2015, it might just get there.

I will place the initial stop loss at $0.14.

So 14c was hit.Will we ever know if the stop loss saw an exit?

And finally some realities about C to L ....

The most troubling aspect of CTL is that producing it will roughly double climate-changing greenhouse gas emissions. That's because liquefying coal releases huge amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Proponents of CTL say that could be remedied by capturing and storing the carbon underground. Yet this new technology is so untested on a large scale that the Senate energy bill seeks to conduct demonstration projects across the country to answer some vital questions, such as whether the carbon dioxide, once stored in a variety of geological settings, will remain there.

 

[sydneysider]

Fantastic.

Now that`s better, getting to the point.

Oh yes of course.

Production anticipated for 2015, it might just get there.

So 14c was hit.Will we ever know if the stop loss saw an exit?

And finally some realities about C to L ....

IF u employ indirect heat fired technology (pyrolysis) the gasification stage will actually reduce greenhouse gas emission very considerably. This occurs because the feedstock is kept in a (relatively) small chamber and is heated to a relatively low temperature which is enough to release the hydrocarbons as a gas. This occurs at about one third the temperature of incineration.

Incineration requires large volumes of air/oxygen in a large vessel to support the reaction which releases large volumes of greenhouse gases. A typical example of an incinerator is a coker (oven).

I assume that GLX is looking at low emission pyrolysis plants to gasify its coal. I cannot comment on the Fischer Tropp?? process that typically converts the gas into liquids by adding other gases, but assume that it gives off relatively smaller volumes of greenhouse gases.

 

[Woody]

Emissions are 20 -30% less than coal fired plants such as those in the La Trobe Valley. GLX runs through this in its presentations. They say they are also investigating mitigation strategies. Think the Torrens connection interesting re this.

 

[Datsun Disguise]

Morning all, question for those more informed.

On page 7 of the last companay presentation (put out on July 7) they talk about oil being higher than $140usd a barrel, then below that they have an indented bullet point wihich states;

Crude Oil currently +US$140 per barrel …
•USGS Long term: US$54 (Our base projections)
•More for premium diesel US$(5 to 10) per barrel
•Production costs of US$(35 to 45) per barrel, financing option dependent,

What does this line mean? Are they talking about the US geologocal Survey - that's the only USGS i know of. The US$54 doesn't help me with figuring out what they mean.

So, first to answer correctly gets a smiley.

 

[Pimping]

Anybody care to comment on the current drop to 10c? please someone.....? remind me of why I am still holding this share.....

 

[spottygoose]

Anybody care to comment on the current drop to 10c? please someone.....? remind me of why I am still holding this share.....

Combination of general market sentiment and the very untimely selling by a director of some of his holdings.

 

[bluedylan]

Good morning all.

I am new to posting but have been lurking on these boards for quite a while. I jumped on to GLX yesterday for what i hope to be a fun ride. Maybe i should have waited, but here i am now. no regrets right!

-bluedylan

 

[spottygoose]

Good morning all.

I am new to posting but have been lurking on these boards for quite a while. I jumped on to GLX yesterday for what i hope to be a fun ride. Maybe i should have waited, but here i am now. no regrets right!

-bluedylan

Well you probably got in lower than most of us and unless the director knows something we don't know the future should still be positive.

 

[jaster]

Why don't you ask him? derek.lenartowicz@syngas.com.au

While your at it could you congratulate him for SPECTACULAR timing.

 

[Datsun Disguise]

Morning all, question for those more informed.

On page 7 of the last companay presentation (put out on July 7) they talk about oil being higher than $140usd a barrel, then below that they have an indented bullet point wihich states;

Crude Oil currently +US$140 per barrel …
•USGS Long term: US$54 (Our base projections)
•More for premium diesel US$(5 to 10) per barrel
•Production costs of US$(35 to 45) per barrel, financing option dependent,

What does this line mean? Are they talking about the US geologocal Survey - that's the only USGS i know of. The US$54 doesn't help me with figuring out what they mean.

So, first to answer correctly gets a smiley.

Looks like I get my own smiley

If anyone is interested in what the USGS $54 means, let me know.

 

[blehgg]

Looks like I get my own smiley

If anyone is interested in what the USGS $54 means, let me know.

haha, Datsun feel free to share the knowledge...

Been a rocky ride up and down.... Won't be watching it for a while...

Hopefully the release from the director wasn't cause of some dirty knowledge....

I bought some more at 14c ~ and disclose decent holdings ~

Good luck all holders

 

[Datsun Disguise]

haha, Datsun feel free to share the knowledge...

Been a rocky ride up and down.... Won't be watching it for a while...

Hopefully the release from the director wasn't cause of some dirty knowledge....

I bought some more at 14c ~ and disclose decent holdings ~

Good luck all holders

I'm such a push over, I really should hold out for some more grovelling, but then again it may never come, so you take what you can.

This may cause some furrowed brows, it certainly did for me. This innocuous line refers to the long term view of the US Geological Survey that the longer term value of a barrel of oil would be US$54 a barrel, the Commodity Research Unit backs up this position providing a forecast of US$60 a barrel.

Seems these come from the last EIA review, which commented on the big 2004 study into oil supply. Here's something off the web;

World oil markets have been extremely volatile for the past several years and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) now believes that the reference case oil price path in recent editions of the "Annual Energy Outlook" did not fully reflect the causes of that volatility and their implications for future oil prices. In the "Annual Energy Outlook 2006" (AEO2006) reference case, released today by EIA, world oil supplies are assumed to be tighter, as the combined productive capacity of the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) does not increase as much as previously projected. World crude oil prices, expressed in terms of the average price of imported light, low-sulfur crude oil to U.S. refiners, are projected to fall from current levels to about $47 per barrel in (2004 dollars) in 2014, then rise to $54 per barrel in 2025 and $57 per barrel in 2030. The projected crude oil price in 2025 is about $21 per barrel higher than projected in last year's reference case.

So it looks like they are using this $54 as their business case number. They still make money at that price, break even being $35 - $45 a barrel. That's fine as long as they aren't right!! Here's some interesting links for further reading.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4779.html

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/otheranalysis/wop.html
This is the 2007 report - uping their estimates again....

A lot of the discussion is about peak oil - which I think is irrelevant. It is simply the supply / demand equation that is what we need to worry about. If we can't get enough supply then the price will rise (shmart aren't I.) - when we hit peak then of course the gap between supply and demand grows faster and we will see $1000 a barrel until such time we wean ourselves off this oil addiction. If we are to survivie econmically we had better hope that peak doesn't arrive while we still have the habit. Best scenario is that prices are pushed up to $200 or $300 a barrel over a 5 year period giving us time to develop the alternatives. But I'm getting off track.

 

[redback]

Well Well Well,!! I wonder where the mystery 4 million @16c bidder has gone (and never bought one share)?, dont tell me it was Derek the Destroyer, no company needs a chairman like this who undermines his boards best efforts.

This man has no future or credibility remaining with this company and should either resign or be pushed forthwith, I guess the only consolation for shareholders who he has destroyed, is that through his imbecilic selling for his $126k pieces of silver, his 17 million shares are now worth $12 million less.
Imbecile.

 

[redback]

Hey Derek the DH--hope you read these forums--what a chairman you are--happy now that you got your few bob??--best you resign before your pushed