Bitcoin price discussion and analysis

[Dark1975]

Interesting how fear from the media can change investors views on Btc and the crypto markets , while in the background institutions are buying up in the crypto space like as attached.

 

[ducati916]

oh the sky hasn't fallen down, Where did all those bears go
Btc just broken 68 758, It's off to the races again,
Another healthy correction of 24%,
cheap money low interest rates ( gatsby era )

Interest rates are set (again) to move higher.

BTC needs to break its 50EMA before you can really celebrate.



And for those interested: https://nypost.com/2021/04/24/new-federal-regulations-could-spur-cryptocurrency-crash/

A potential risk.

jog on
duc

 

[Dark1975]

Interest rates are set (again) to move higher.

BTC needs to break its 50EMA before you can really celebrate.

View attachment 123384

And for those interested: https://nypost.com/2021/04/24/new-federal-regulations-could-spur-cryptocurrency-crash/

A potential risk.

jog on
duc

That thread is old news by the way, and investors factored that in on Friday ,
That article has been written by Ray dalio 3 weeks ago,
And FYI the 50ema is on daily, might want to pull that out on the weekly charts and take another look,

 

[ducati916]

1. That thread is old news by the way, and investors factored that in weeks ago ,

2. That article has been written by Ray dalio 3 weeks ago,

3. And FYI the 50ema is on daily, might want to pull that out on the weekly charts and take another look,

1. You cannot factor in a risk. You can manage a risk.

2. The risk, until it is no longer a risk, remains a risk.

3. Weekly:



Your point is?


jog on
duc

 

[Dark1975]

1. You cannot factor in a risk. You can manage a risk.

2. The risk, until it is no longer a risk, remains a risk.

3. Weekly:

View attachment 123392

Your point is?


jog on
duc

My point is simple if u read my last posts , I remain bullish and accumulated more crypto in the last correction (weekend past)
My point is that if you look at the weekly charts not the daily we clearly are still in a bull run !
My point is I'm clearly optimistic at the current point with crypto markets,
And you are clearly not ?
Respectfully different opinions,
I remain bullish at this point of time ,
And you are bearish with main stream media .

 

[qldfrog]

Looking at the chart, it seems clear we are at an inflection point, so expecting a sharp move in either direction, i bought a back a smaller bit yesterday and now even have a few ethereums.
All money at risk is extracted profit from btc play, so feeling less guilty gambling it on ether money.
But it is a gamble.
As for the risk, i already banged on this, and believe governments/fed banks are going to ultimately kill these crypto currencies.
Just hoping that btc and eth will have enough leverage to be spared/exempted.
But while the cat is away, let the mice frolick and extract some coins from the situation.
If i may ask mr @ducati916 , do you own any crypto?

 

[ducati916]

1. My point is simple if u read my last posts , I remain bullish and accumulated more crypto in the last correction (weekend past)
2. My point is that if you look at the weekly charts not the daily we clearly are still in a bull run !
3. My point is I'm clearly optimistic at the current point with crypto markets,
4. And you are clearly not ?
5. Respectfully different opinions,
6. I remain bullish at this point of time ,
7. And you are bearish with main stream media .

1. Which is fine and I hope it does well.

2. Correct. The weekly chart is bullish. However, in different time frames, you can have different trends. The Daily trend is bearish, until proven otherwise. To prove it otherwise, price needs to trade back above the 50EMA and hold it, then trade higher past the previous high. If it fails at the 50EMA, then the Daily trend remains bearish, all within a Weekly bullish trend.

3. Optimistic and not a little biased.

4. I am indifferent (as I have no position) and merely stating the blindingly obvious, as per pretty bog standard TA.

5. I have no 'opinion'. As I said, I am simply stating the facts as they appear on the charts.

6. Clearly.

7. Incorrect. I am as I said neutral. The mainstream media have highlighted 'potential' risks. Those risks may never eventuate or be completely wrong. To not consider them however is foolhardy.

Does this chart not make you at least a little nervous in the short term?



jog on
duc

 

[gartley]

oh the sky hasn't fallen down, Where did all those bears go
Btc just broken 68 758, It's off to the races again,
Another healthy correction of 24%,
cheap money low interest rates ( gatsby era )

There is nothing to suggest ( other than an oversold bounce) that correction has completed......

 

[ducati916]

So alternative analysis:






jog on
duc


* Just a late addition:

 

[over9k]

You think it's a bull trap @gartley ? I'm keen to hear why.

 

[Dark1975]

1. Which is fine and I hope it does well.

2. Correct. The weekly chart is bullish. However, in different time frames, you can have different trends. The Daily trend is bearish, until proven otherwise. To prove it otherwise, price needs to trade back above the 50EMA and hold it, then trade higher past the previous high. If it fails at the 50EMA, then the Daily trend remains bearish, all within a Weekly bullish trend.

3. Optimistic and not a little biased.

4. I am indifferent (as I have no position) and merely stating the blindingly obvious, as per pretty bog standard TA.

5. I have no 'opinion'. As I said, I am simply stating the facts as they appear on the charts.

6. Clearly.

7. Incorrect. I am as I said neutral. The mainstream media have highlighted 'potential' risks. Those risks may never eventuate or be completely wrong. To not consider them however is foolhardy.

Does this chart not make you at least a little nervous in the short term?

View attachment 123396

jog on
duc

Quote "Does this chart not make you at least a little nervous in the short term?"

No your monthly chart does not. Nor do i look at monthly charts to plan my trades , I actually use 5/15min /1hr/4hr ,Daily charts and weekly if i need to pull back to look at the overall perspective.

I will post my trading plan for Btc , which was posted on this thread 3 days prior to the leg down. So i actually forecasted a second leg down.
It broke the 68 334 which i honestly thought that leg would hold. Nether the less, The general consensus or theme doesn't change for me.
I think this was a healthy correction for btc , Consolidation will take place before it moves to test new heights.

3. Agreed bullish , tho i am not biased ( i dont personally hold btc) Tho i use btc to gauge where the general market goes.

 

[Dark1975]

Looks to be a textbook EW impulse pattern completion. If count is correct we might be in the early stages of a pullback under 35K or the span of the previous wave 4 (blue) of one less degree.
More importantly this might also be a warning for an imminent stock market correction as BTC movements have been preceding indices of late. Ending diagonal pattern that developed last few weeks suggested imminent pullback ahead


View attachment 122961

So you still trading this plan ?
Curious !

 

[Joules MM1]

nothing in the construct says shorts are winning

holding longs until there is a clear signal to close

clear lack of selling in this current upleg

 

[ducati916]

Quote "Does this chart not make you at least a little nervous in the short term?"

No your monthly chart does not. Nor do i look at monthly charts to plan my trades , I actually use 5/15min /1hr/4hr ,Daily charts and weekly if i need to pull back to look at the overall perspective.

I will post my trading plan for Btc , which was posted on this thread 3 days prior to the leg down. So i actually forecasted a second leg down.
It broke the 68 334 which i honestly thought that leg would hold. Nether the less, The general consensus or theme doesn't change for me.
I think this was a healthy correction for btc , Consolidation will take place before it moves to test new heights.

3. Agreed bullish , tho i am not biased ( i dont personally hold btc) Tho i use btc to gauge where the general market goes.

Whatever time frame you wish to utilise, there are technical challenges that require proof of price trading through them.

So this is the 4hr chart:



It looks worse technically, than the daily. You are entering a point of previous selling. Again, guilty until proven innocent.

Re. general market direction: (a) re. $SPX and (b) re. SOXX



Since you are bullish BTC, I can (safely) assume you are bullish the wider market?

I think the stock markets are sketchy, but will last through the summer without a really major break. But again, guilty until proven innocent.


I think BTC can break far lower without any major issues to the indices, although there are now some major corporations that would take a real hit, TSLA obviously. Tech. can trade lower, without causing a market collapse....probably.

jog on
duc

 

[noirua]

Key Bitcoin price metric flashes its first bullish signal in 4 months

Ethereum price is clearly in a strong bull trend, but derivatives data signals that pro traders are shifting their bullish bias back toward Bitcoin.

cointelegraph.com

 

[gartley]

So you still trading this plan ?
Curious !

Yes I am. I should note that I sold ETF BTCE . So the price targets mentioned above are in BTC/EUR.
I think it's important to have a handle on the degree of trend the market is currently in. Still don't think that the correction over and that we will eventually get another leg lower after this upward b wave completes thats if it has not completed already.
We had a very strong 3rd wave up the last 6 months and the subsequent correction is gonna take quite a while relative to the time it took that 3rd wave to complete.
For now I just follow the buy/sells my system generates

 

[Dark1975]

Yes I am. I should note that I sold ETF BTCE . So the price targets mentioned above are in BTC/EUR.
I think it's important to have a handle on the degree of trend the market is currently in. Still don't think that the correction over and that we will eventually get another leg lower after this upward b wave completes thats if it has not completed already.
We had a very strong 3rd wave up the last 6 months and the subsequent correction is gonna take quite a while relative to the time it took that 3rd wave to complete.
For now I just follow the buy/sells my system generates

The correction is over ,
please relate to 2017 charts,
This is simply a change from bitcoin domaince to altcoins,
Check the market cap
This happened in 2017
Btc will go sideways , pretty much consolidate and move like the stock market.
money will slowly move out of bitcoin for the shorterm and move to alt coins.
So my trading pattern is still bullish as I have heavily invested in alt coins.
So i see btc swinging slowly in between 65k -73k over the couple of months as alt coins will be the play now and then back to btc for its last stage of parabolic before everything blows up.
So i still think we have 3-4 months of this bull run to play out
Refer to market cap,
Market cap still growing tho btc giving up over 10% , this will continue, currently the flow of money moves out if btc and into alts coins

 

[againsthegrain]

The correction is over ,
please relate to 2017 charts,
This is simply a change from bitcoin domaince to altcoins,
Check the market cap
This happened in 2017
Btc will go sideways , pretty much consolidate and move like the stock market.
money will slowly move out of bitcoin for the shorterm and move to alt coins.
So my trading pattern is still bullish as I have heavily invested in alt coins.
So i see btc swinging slowly in between 65k -73k over the couple of months as alt coins will be the play now and then back to btc for its last stage of parabolic before everything blows up.
So i still think we have 3-4 months of this bull run to play out
Refer to market cap,
Market cap still growing tho btc giving up over 10% , this will continue, currently the flow of money moves out if btc and into alts coins

Hope your right about the altcoins, so far they seem to be shadowing btc

 

[Dark1975]

Hope your right about the altcoins, so far they seem to be shadowing btc

I trade with a plan,
And being right can be no guarantee! No crystal ball sorry!
Only a salesman would do that.
I trade with my plan , with stop loss in place and have alot invested as attached.
We will see how this plays out!
Pls this is not finacial advice and lls DYOR

 

[againsthegrain]

I trade with a plan,
And being right can be no guarantee! No crystal ball sorry!
Only a salesman would do that.
I trade with my plan , with stop loss in place and have alot invested as attached.
We will see how this plays out!
Pls this is not finacial advice and lls DYOR

Very impressive, I am just a ant in your shadow. No cardano?