Bitcoin price discussion and analysis

[DB008]

Anyways, BTC is up. It is a very volatile market, could drop it's run up in minutes.

 

[Warr87]

Anyways, BTC is up. It is a very volatile market, could drop it's run up in minutes.

i'm happy. i got in but a bit lagged. I use 4hr charts and its been trending upwards since october 16.

 

[DB008]

Just some additional information for the new people joining this thread

BITCOIN HALVING

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Reward-Drop ETA date: 09 May 2024 11:11:49 UTC

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What is a block halving event?​

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As part of Bitcoin's coin issuance, miners are rewarded a certain amount of bitcoins whenever a block is produced (approximately every 10 minutes). When Bitcoin first started, 50 Bitcoins per block were given as a reward to miners. After every 210,000 blocks are mined (approximately every 4 years), the block reward halves and will keep on halving until the block reward per block becomes 0 (approximately by year 2140). As of now, the block reward is 6.25 coins per block and will decrease to 3.125 coins per block post halving.​

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Why was this done?​

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Bitcoin was designed as a deflationary currency. Like gold, the premise is that over time, the issuance of bitcoins will decrease and thus become scarcer over time. As bitcoins become scarcer and if demand for them increases over time, Bitcoin can be used as a hedge against inflation as the price, guided by price equilibrium is bound to increase. On the flip side, fiat currencies (like the US dollar), inflate over time as its monetary supply increases, leading to a decrease in purchasing power. This is known as monetary debasement by inflation. A simple example would be to compare housing prices decades ago to now and you'll notice that they've increased over time!​

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Predictable monetary supply​

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Since we know Bitcoin's issuance over time, people can rely on programmed/controlled supply. This is helpful to understand what the current inflation rate of Bitcoin is, what the future inflation rate will be at a specific point in time, how many Bitcoins are in circulation and how many remain left to be mined.​

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Who controls the issuance of Bitcoin?​

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The network itself controls the issuance of Bitcoins, derived by consensus through all Bitcoin participants. Ever since Bitcoin was first designed, the following consensus rules exist to this day:​

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• 21,000,000 Bitcoins to ever be produced
  • Target of 10-minute block intervals
  • Halving event occurring every 210,000 blocks (approximately every 4 years)
  • Block reward which starts at 50 and halves continually every halving event until it reaches 0 (approximately by year 2140)

Any change to these parameters requires all Bitcoin participants to agree by consensus to approve the change.​

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Past halving event dates​

• The first halving event occurred on the 28th of November, 2012 (UTC) at block height 210,000
  • The second halving event occurred on the 9th of July, 2016 (UTC) at block height 420,000
  • The third halving event occurred on the 11th of May, 2020 (UTC) at block height 630,000

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Past halving price performance​

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It is always a debate on what Bitcoin will do in terms of pricing for a halving event. Some people believe that the halving is already priced in by the market and thus there's no expectation for the price to do anything. Others believe that due to price equilibrium, a halving of supply should cause an increase in price if demand for Bitcoins is equal or greater than what it was before the halving event. Below is a chart showing past price performance of the two halving events:​

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Link to site with live halving countdown -

https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/



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[DB008]

Bitcoin Hashrate

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Explanation​

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The difficulty is a measure of how difficult it is to mine a Bitcoin block, or in more technical terms, to find a hash below a given target. A high difficulty means that it will take more computing power to mine the same number of blocks, making the network more secure against attacks. The difficulty adjustment is directly related to the total estimated mining power estimated in the Total Hash Rate (TH/s) chart.​

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Notes​

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The difficulty is adjusted every 2016 blocks (every 2 weeks approximately) so that the average time between each block remains 10 minutes.​

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Methodology​

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The difficulty comes directly from the confirmed blocks data in the Bitcoin network.​

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https://btc.com/stats/diff



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[grah33]

It might be better than gold, as you actually get to spend it on stuff.

There doesn't seem to be any funds out there on the asx for bitcoin ... but forex mt4 (leveraged ) CFDs might be a good way to go as well

 

[wayneL]

It might be better than gold, as you actually get to spend it on stuff.

There doesn't seem to be any funds out there on the asx for bitcoin ... but forex mt4 (leveraged ) CFDs might be a good way to go as well

BTC gurus speak about "uptake" and that the inevitable ETF might be the ultimate factor in that.

IMO, that is almost inevitable at some stage FWIW

 

[kenny]

There doesn't seem to be any funds out there on the asx for bitcoin

There are a few unlisted funds focusing on cryptocurrencies but I've found it difficult to assess and compare as one would with other managed funds. Other issues I see include;

• Fees are higher than you would expect of hedge funds or absolute return funds.
• Lack of transparency in mandates, portfolio, trading action, exposure.
• Cybersecurity
• Level of technical and training expertise in the operating partners and investment committee.
• Lack of track record (FWIW)

I found this article handy from BDO;

https://www.bdo.com.au/en-au/insigh...ew-and-easier-way-to-invest-in-digital-assets

 

[DB008]

There doesn't seem to be any funds out there on the asx for bitcoin ... but forex mt4 (leveraged ) CFDs might be a good way to go as well

Yeah, l'm not too sure about the ASX, but there are a few in the USA where you can get exposure to BTC.

Why not just buy BTC yourself on an exchange? It's a relatively easy process to get set up, probably easier than buying stocks.

What l love about BTC is that it's a 24/7/365 market.

 

[Warr87]

Yeah, l'm not too sure about the ASX, but there are a few in the USA where you can get exposure to BTC.

Why not just buy BTC yourself on an exchange? It's a relatively easy process to get set up, probably easier than buying stocks.

What l love about BTC is that it's a 24/7/365 market.

Unfortunately the CFDs i trade dont trade weekends. Can make for some interesting gaps on Monday haha.

Given you can buy futures for BTC, could make for an etf. I imagine the returns could be volatile.

 

[DB008]

BTC punching through $16k USD overnight, and still holding up. WOW. Just above $22k AUD.

 

[DB008]

Almost nudging $23k AUD now.

Maybe we should wait until it breaks $50k AUD mid next year (or $100k)

 

[Warr87]

I am running a donchian system on it actually. it entered 2nd november. i'm surprised it hasn't broken the exit channel yet. it keeps clinging on. it'd be happy for it to continue going up haha. it's been a pretty steady uptrend on the 4HR chart so will be interesting to see how high it will go. the few dips on the chart look to be a shallow pullback and likely some people taking profits (what I have been really tempted to do but avoiding interfering with my bot).

my ETH bot, on the other hand, has won a few but mostly lost to false breakouts.

 

[noirua]

During the month of October Argo worked closely with Bitmain to arrive at a solution for the previously mentioned underperforming Bitmain T17 Antminers. As part of the solution agreed with Bitmain, some of these machines have now been retired and the company's overall petahash capacity has been reduced by 85 petahash. - Argo Blockchain LSE:ARB
For those mining Bitcoin and knowing it's about 3 years+ to the next rehash. It is worth investing otherwise you are compromised on an up to 4:1 basis. My own small interest is via Argo Blockchain, a Bitcoin miner, and a small private outfit based in Greenland.

 

[DB008]

For those mining Bitcoin and knowing it's about 3 years+ to the next rehash

I don't understand what this means, can you (or someone else) please explain this to me???

 

[DB008]

Some predictions, T/A

From what l have seen from a T/A perspective, Bob Lucas seems to be the only person who has been consistently correct.

Bob's T/A is spot on (IMO), and l follow him.

l'll put Bob's 4 year journey podcast up below, and l'll also put one up that he did recently, spot on. This is only my opinion and not financial advice.



Bitcoin's 4 Year Cycle - Opportunity (Original Author) - 25 mins

15 Jan 2019

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The Next 4-Year Cycle Started - 33 mins

3 April 2019

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The Person in the Mirror - 36 mins

22 August 2020

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[DB008]

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[ghoool]

do u have bitcoin now?

 

[ghoool]

Hi guys. My list includes only those exchanges that have worked on the market for at least six months, with a large supply of currencies and without complaints from visitors. In the reviews column, you can see the number of positive and negative opinions. As soon as more than three negative ones appear, the resource is instantly excluded from my top services where I can change usd to btc. I have these rules. What do you have?

 

[DB008]

BTC touching $17k (USD) overnight. Up over $24k AUD. And the big bull run hasn't even started yet...

 

[DB008]

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