BHP - BHP Group

[spitrader1]

look back through all your post guys....

when bhp goes up 4% it is hitting the blue sky again...

when it falls 4% its plumeting.

when will people realise this is part of being a shareholder in the market...

if you cant handle it.... get yourself a fixed interest rate

well said ken...overnight down smalls, glad i dipped the toe in.

 

[Sean K]

BHP bouncing a little from yesterday's slaughter. Where to next? Probably depends quite a bit on commods of course, but there looks to be pretty good support on the downside at $26.00 and then worst case $24.00. Bad Karma it broke through the 200d ma and $27.00 was a support level.

On the charts still looks to be going short term sideways in a long term upward trend. Would have to break $24.00 to be in serious trouble. The up trend would continue with a solid break through $28.00.

Still looks to be a half half proposition IMO, unless you are a firm believer in the stronger for longer supercycle blah blah..

I'm still holding. Bought at $9.90 (in 2002 ), $14 (04), and $26 (06)....

2 year, 1 year and 6 month charts:

 

[Ken]

love your graphs kennas.

Question i post - that i cant answer my self

Has BHP's uranium production been taken into account as far as share price goes. What happens when there uranium production moves into full swing.

They hold the biggest uranium location in the world correct? Spot price of Uranium has gone over $50. ERA has gone from $12 to $18 a share. PDN $4 to $6.

Yet BHP has been steady and if anything flat.

Or is it that BHP is so big it's uranium is just a small portion of the shareholder returns, and other factors play a more important role.

Not sure. but since Uranium has been such a buzz word when people look at stocks just wondering why the worlds biggest producer hasnt been effected (in recent times)

Oh and one last thing. Media reports on BHP goes in cycles. One week you here they can't keep up with production. Next week you here they are oversupplying. It is a direct relationship with share price. When i rises and falls.

All i know is majority of major port folios contain BHP

 

[spitrader1]

BHP bouncing a little from yesterday's slaughter. Where to next? Probably depends quite a bit on commods of course, but there looks to be pretty good support on the downside at $26.00 and then worst case $24.00. Bad Karma it broke through the 200d ma and $27.00 was a support level.

On the charts still looks to be going short term sideways in a long term upward trend. Would have to break $24.00 to be in serious trouble. The up trend would continue with a solid break through $28.00.

Still looks to be a half half proposition IMO, unless you are a firm believer in the stronger for longer supercycle blah blah..

I'm still holding. Bought at $9.90 (in 2002 ), $14 (04), and $26 (06)....

2 year, 1 year and 6 month charts:

kennas, you are a credit to ASF.

 

[Sean K]

love your graphs kennas.

Question i post - that i cant answer my self

Has BHP's uranium production been taken into account as far as share price goes. What happens when there uranium production moves into full swing.

They hold the biggest uranium location in the world correct? Spot price of Uranium has gone over $50. ERA has gone from $12 to $18 a share. PDN $4 to $6.

Yet BHP has been steady and if anything flat.

Or is it that BHP is so big it's uranium is just a small portion of the shareholder returns, and other factors play a more important role.

Not sure. but since Uranium has been such a buzz word when people look at stocks just wondering why the worlds biggest producer hasnt been effected (in recent times)

Oh and one last thing. Media reports on BHP goes in cycles. One week you here they can't keep up with production. Next week you here they are oversupplying. It is a direct relationship with share price. When i rises and falls.

All i know is majority of major port folios contain BHP

They would have most of their current uranium production sold forward in contracts out to maybe even 2010. Not sure of the exact dates and price. Anything extra they start digging up next year they will be able to set new contracts for or sell at spot. Lots of upside there. The upgraded resource stimate for OD should be out in Jan/Feb. Will be a big boost for BHP I reckon.

 

[GreatPig]

On a weekly chart, it could be either in a downtrend channel or forming a bearish triangle, depending on how you like your poison.

Very similar shape to the gold chart actually.

GP

 

[Ken]

i understand how it can be frustrating for many investors, especially if they are holding stock on BHP via margin loan.

the way i see it. if i take my money out of BHP. where else am i going to put it....

theres not a whole heap of undervalued stocks out there.

I am not a day trader so i guess a bit different for me.

 

[Sean K]

i understand how it can be frustrating for many investors, especially if they are holding stock on BHP via margin loan.

the way i see it. if i take my money out of BHP. where else am i going to put it....

theres not a whole heap of undervalued stocks out there.

I am not a day trader so i guess a bit different for me.

Good red should hold up. I recommend a few dozen Hill of Grace. I'll take one for the financial advice..

 

[nizar]

i understand how it can be frustrating for many investors, especially if they are holding stock on BHP via margin loan.

the way i see it. if i take my money out of BHP. where else am i going to put it....

theres not a whole heap of undervalued stocks out there.

I am not a day trader so i guess a bit different for me.

I think zinifex is incredibly undervalued, but thats my personal opinion. Earnings forecasts and industry outlook for zinc mite give you a few pointers as to why.
BHP is more a copper play and:

Copper for delivery in three months on the LME was quoted at $6,850 a tonne after losing $410, or 5.6 percent, to $6,900 in London on Friday after LME stocks leapt 1,625 tonnes to 148,200, up 54 percent from the start of the year.

http://today.reuters.com/news/artic...eexportedtoAsiainValparaisoport&from=business


Their sensitivity to copper price to NPAT is $20million per CENT/lb
And to oil about $20million per DOLLAR/barrel

Not the best stock to hold when copper and oil are going down. Long term outlook, i like BHP due to their oil and uranium exposrure.

 

[bigdog]

Nizar,

Can you please advise me how to post quotes per you last post
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ken
i understand how it can be frustrating for many investors, especially if they are holding stock on BHP via margin loan.

the way i see it. if i take my money out of BHP. where else am i going to put it....

theres not a whole heap of undervalued stocks out there.

I am not a day trader so i guess a bit different for me.
--------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[nizar]

Nizar,

Can you please advise me how to post quotes per you last post
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ken
i understand how it can be frustrating for many investors, especially if they are holding stock on BHP via margin loan.

the way i see it. if i take my money out of BHP. where else am i going to put it....

theres not a whole heap of undervalued stocks out there.

I am not a day trader so i guess a bit different for me.
--------------------------------------------------------------------

bigdog,

click on "quote" instead of reply
OR
write [QUuOTE="poster name"]insert text to be quoted here, from copy and paste or wateva[/QUOTE]

(obviously spell quote properly, but if i didnt do that it will actually quote)

 

[Sean K]

Latest broker reports:

ABN Amro rates the stock as Buy - The broker notes the company''s short-term oil production profile has been improved by the purchase of the Genghis Khan field in the Gulf of Mexico, but delivery of production targets will be required to get full value from the acquisition.

In the broker''s view the company paid a reasonable price for the acquisition and it expects it will add around 1% to earnings in FY08.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $26.84 Difference:$7.16 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If BHP meets the ABN Amro target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Credit Suisse rates the stock as Outperform - On the broker''s estimates the purchase of the Genghis Khan field in the Gulf of Mexico will add 12-30% to the company''s reserves, while it will be able to soon bring the asset into production.

It suggests the company paid a reasonable price for the asset.

Target price is $37.58 Current Price is $26.84 Difference:$10.74 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If BHP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Deutsche Bank rates the stock as Buy - BHP and partners paid a full price for the purchase of the Genghis Khan oil and gas project, Deutsche Bank suggests. The analysts hasten to add they believe purchase price is nevertheless "reasonable".

They believe key reasons behind the transaction are the ability to bring additional production on line whilst the oil price is high, and to add benefits from the development synergies of having two fields so close to each other.

Target price is $32.36 Current Price is $26.84 Difference:$5.52 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If BHP meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Macquarie rates the stock as Outperform - The Genghis Khan acquisition just goes to show BHP''s ability to jump at world-class, valuable opportunities, the broker suggests.

Target price is $32.55 Current Price is $26.84 Difference:$5.71 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company''s fiscal year ends in June. Macquarie forecasts a full year FY07 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 208.30 cents .

Merrill Lynch rates the stock as Buy, Medium Risk - The broker continues to maintain a Buy rating, but suggests "trimming" positions in a Dec quarter rally ahead of adverse effects of US slowing in early 2007.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $26.84 Difference:$8.16 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If BHP meets the Merrill Lynch target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company''s fiscal year ends in June. Merrill Lynch forecasts a full year FY07 dividend of 56.80 cents and EPS of 314.50 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.12%.

UBS rates the stock as Buy 2 - The broker suggests the acquisition of Genghis Khan is a good move at a reasonable price.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $26.84 Difference:$9.16 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company''s fiscal year ends in June. UBS forecasts a full year FY07 dividend of 59.40 cents and EPS of 310.50 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.21%.

 

[Kauri]

And on the daily charts I would rate it as a cautious buy , would feel better if it moves strongly up through the $28.40 area.. looking for $34-$36..

 

[nizar]

Latest broker reports:

ABN Amro rates the stock as Buy - The broker notes the company''s short-term oil production profile has been improved by the purchase of the Genghis Khan field in the Gulf of Mexico, but delivery of production targets will be required to get full value from the acquisition.

In the broker''s view the company paid a reasonable price for the acquisition and it expects it will add around 1% to earnings in FY08.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $26.84 Difference:$7.16 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If BHP meets the ABN Amro target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Credit Suisse rates the stock as Outperform - On the broker''s estimates the purchase of the Genghis Khan field in the Gulf of Mexico will add 12-30% to the company''s reserves, while it will be able to soon bring the asset into production.

It suggests the company paid a reasonable price for the asset.

Target price is $37.58 Current Price is $26.84 Difference:$10.74 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If BHP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Deutsche Bank rates the stock as Buy - BHP and partners paid a full price for the purchase of the Genghis Khan oil and gas project, Deutsche Bank suggests. The analysts hasten to add they believe purchase price is nevertheless "reasonable".

They believe key reasons behind the transaction are the ability to bring additional production on line whilst the oil price is high, and to add benefits from the development synergies of having two fields so close to each other.

Target price is $32.36 Current Price is $26.84 Difference:$5.52 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If BHP meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Macquarie rates the stock as Outperform - The Genghis Khan acquisition just goes to show BHP''s ability to jump at world-class, valuable opportunities, the broker suggests.

Target price is $32.55 Current Price is $26.84 Difference:$5.71 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company''s fiscal year ends in June. Macquarie forecasts a full year FY07 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 208.30 cents .

Merrill Lynch rates the stock as Buy, Medium Risk - The broker continues to maintain a Buy rating, but suggests "trimming" positions in a Dec quarter rally ahead of adverse effects of US slowing in early 2007.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $26.84 Difference:$8.16 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If BHP meets the Merrill Lynch target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company''s fiscal year ends in June. Merrill Lynch forecasts a full year FY07 dividend of 56.80 cents and EPS of 314.50 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.12%.

UBS rates the stock as Buy 2 - The broker suggests the acquisition of Genghis Khan is a good move at a reasonable price.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $26.84 Difference:$9.16 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company''s fiscal year ends in June. UBS forecasts a full year FY07 dividend of 59.40 cents and EPS of 310.50 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.21%.

Broker reports have been bullish for ages.

 

[Sean K]

Broker reports have been bullish for ages.

Yep. Are they all willing to get this so wrong? Is it just a matter of the sheep to the slaughter, or do they actually understand world economics, supply/demand, yada yada.

 

[Kauri]

Yep. Are they all willing to get this so wrong? Is it just a matter of the sheep to the slaughter, or do they actually understand world economics, supply/demand, yada yada.

When did a broker have anything but a buy rec. of some sort on BHP. Although the S/P rises over time, there have been periods when it has fallen.

 

[Knobby22]

Yep. Are they all willing to get this so wrong? Is it just a matter of the sheep to the slaughter, or do they actually understand world economics, supply/demand, yada yada.

I am bullish on this stock for fundamental reasons, bought at $25.
You bears are too quick sometimes. There is a thread somewhere predicting the mineral collapse nearly a year ago and don't forget BHP is also an energy company.

 

[The Mint Man]

When did a broker have anything but a buy rec. of some sort on BHP. Although the S/P rises over time, there have been periods when it has fallen.

share prices fall?
damn

cheers

 

[scsl]

Does anyone else think that while the BHP sp has been going sideways/down these past few months, the targets set by the brokers keep getting higher?

 

[Sean K]

Does anyone else think that while the BHP sp has been going sideways/down these past few months, the targets set by the brokers keep getting higher?

Definately sideways and some short term down. Maybe even medium term down. Break under $24.00 will be very negative. Above $28.00 and it's going up IMO.