Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

BHP - BHP Group

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I don't trade BHP (I'm not silly), I have however accumalated them on 2 occasions since May and hopefully again in the next few days.

I have offloaded some property in recent months and those funds I am putting into BHP. It is a large sum that I do not wan't to trade or watch but gain a long term return on in the next year, BHP is my decision, and yes I consider them a bargain. :)
 
For the benefit of us that don't get this time and price thing. Using BHP as an example, how would one calculate time resistance? What is being resisted?

As mentioned time went 360 days into high, it has gone 180 days into lower high last week, which makes it 50%, price at 50% of a range is a very strong resistace/support level.
 
Another transfer of money from the impatient to the patient.


Cu prices have 'broken down' on the chart at least 3 times in the last six months and have 'broken out' about the same number of times to end at about the same!

And the Chinese economy and metals demand has appeared to have faltered /ended about 6 times in the last three years.

Shorts may swing in and belt the stock/metal some more yet; but they will again be wrong.

The Chinese are forecast to have drawn-down 500,000 tn of Cu from their State reserves this year -demand is going to ramp again when they get back on the market. This is twice the amount available on the LME.

GDP growth continues at a massive clip in China, mine grades continue to fall and capex continues to blow-out. New copper supply is still years away.


BHP is trading at 10 times forecast cashflow for next year using Cu numbers well below spot.

Bulks still strong and oil going up (in my view) - the BHP shorts from the US were probably covering their old shorts last week at $28. These fools were short at $24.50 and they had their @sses handed to them.


I cannot imagine shorting BHP at these prices on the basis of a copper chart - amazing insight into the current short-termism in equities trading.

One strike/cave-in/inventory drawdown and Cu and BHP will go up by the same magnitude and another hedge fund will lose a leg.

Even better, Exxon decides to diversify into mining and wagers only four years of free cash on a tilt at BHP.

That would be truely stunning!
 
There is no money in trading them ATM, look at their chart. Plenty of better ones out their.

Personally if I was a bit of a risk taker I would have put a large proportion of the aforementioned funds in BDG (Their value is bizzare at the current SP) and PDN, but ATM I am only prepared to trade a certain amount and just looking for a safer alternative with these funds that still achieves potential value IMHO, and thats BHP.
 
No criticism Rosie - I am not even bright enough to understand what you are talking about (time resistance, 360 day etc).


But, in any case, I dont think 1% of demand for copper, oil, iron ore, nickel, coking coal or uranium is linked to such concepts anyway.
 
BSD said:
No criticism Rosie - I am not even bright enough to understand what you are talking about (time resistance, 360 day etc).


But, in any case, I dont think 1% of demand for copper, oil, iron ore, nickel, coking coal or uranium is linked to such concepts anyway.
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We all look at markets in a different light l guess. :banghead:
 
Its not BSD, its just people trying to justify why BHP share price is suffering ATM, the answer could be that they are undervalued, lagging and yet to run to a fair value SP.

The problem is that would be to simple an answer for an analyst/expert or proffessional to deal with, they have to provide reasons as senseless as they maybe!.
 
Freeballinginawetsuit said:
Its not BSD, its just people trying to justify why BHP share price is suffering ATM, the answer could be that they are undervalued, lagging and yet to run to a fair value SP.

The problem is that would be to simple an answer for an analyst/expert or proffessional to deal with, they have to provide reasons as senseless as they maybe!.
Click to expand...

i recall when the price was $8 it was unloved :rolleyes:
 
BSD said:
Another transfer of money from the impatient to the patient.


Cu prices have 'broken down' on the chart at least 3 times in the last six months and have 'broken out' about the same number of times to end at about the same!

And the Chinese economy and metals demand has appeared to have faltered /ended about 6 times in the last three years.

Shorts may swing in and belt the stock/metal some more yet; but they will again be wrong.

The Chinese are forecast to have drawn-down 500,000 tn of Cu from their State reserves this year -demand is going to ramp again when they get back on the market. This is twice the amount available on the LME.

GDP growth continues at a massive clip in China, mine grades continue to fall and capex continues to blow-out. New copper supply is still years away.


BHP is trading at 10 times forecast cashflow for next year using Cu numbers well below spot.

Bulks still strong and oil going up (in my view) - the BHP shorts from the US were probably covering their old shorts last week at $28. These fools were short at $24.50 and they had their @sses handed to them.


I cannot imagine shorting BHP at these prices on the basis of a copper chart - amazing insight into the current short-termism in equities trading.

One strike/cave-in/inventory drawdown and Cu and BHP will go up by the same magnitude and another hedge fund will lose a leg.

Even better, Exxon decides to diversify into mining and wagers only four years of free cash on a tilt at BHP.

That would be truely stunning!
Click to expand...

...and another stunningly condescending post from BSD. Will your obviously poor self-esteem not allow you to post opinions and facts without resorting to sarcastic half truths and prevarications ?

BSD, you make some very good points, but also some monumental assumptions that could only come from a seriously depressed imagination, a dogmatic mind and an indoctrinated intellect.

Hedge funds are not the only institutions to "lose a leg"...

"Why do you look at the speck in your brothers eye and ignore the log in your own" (or whatever it says)

Bitter post... bitter post :rolleyes:
 
Of what relevance is that Rosie, marketplace/commodity cycle was different then. The PDN'S and KZL's were nothing (cents) and Pasminco and Annoconda were in recievership (now ZFX and MRE). What a difference a commodities boom makes.
 
Freeballinginawetsuit said:
There is no money in trading them ATM, look at their chart. Plenty of better ones out their.

Personally if I was a bit of a risk taker I would have put a large proportion of the aforementioned funds in BDG (Their value is bizzare at the current SP) and PDN, but ATM I am only prepared to trade a certain amount and just looking for a safer alternative with these funds that still achieves potential value IMHO, and thats BHP.
Click to expand...

Agree there are better charts. But BHP sets up some great opportunities at various times and at that particular point in time there are not many better.

PS The NYSE version is more tradeable than the ASX. ASX version too gappy.
 
wayneL said:
...and another stunningly condescending post from BSD. Will your obviously poor self-esteem not allow you to post opinions and facts without resorting to sarcastic half truths and prevarications ?

BSD, you make some very good points, but also some monumental assumptions that could only come from a seriously depressed imagination, a dogmatic mind and an indoctrinated intellect.

Hedge funds are not the only institutions to "lose a leg"...

"Why do you look at the speck in your brothers eye and ignore the log in your own" (or whatever it says)

Bitter post... bitter post :rolleyes:
Click to expand...
bhp with a little psychoanalysis ....now this is entertainment! :)
 
Freeballinginawetsuit said:
Of what relevance is that Rosie, marketplace/commodity cycle was different then. The PDN'S and KZL's were nothing (cents) and Pasminco and Annoconda were in recievership (now ZFX and MRE). What a difference a commodities boom makes.
Click to expand...

Point being no-one wanted the stock then, now many are chasing at this level.
As you say the "boom" has driven prices, what goes up....
 
rosie said:
Point being no-one wanted the stock then, now many are chasing at this level.
As you say the "boom" has driven prices, what goes up....
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Old adage "trade your knowledge" fwiw :)
 
I so much enjoy all your posts, fantastic guys, Thanks, but don't you regard this resistance point a stumbling block? I mean IMO the pullback that didn't occur in SEPT/OCT is still possible, and for the TA's, it's almost predictable. Am reading it wrong?... Shouldn't we be wary? Is it really a time to accumulate? Just a question, no disrespect intended, cheers :confused:
 
wayneL said:
...and another stunningly condescending post from BSD. Will your obviously poor self-esteem not allow you to post opinions and facts without resorting to sarcastic half truths and prevarications ?

BSD, you make some very good points, but also some monumental assumptions that could only come from a seriously depressed imagination, a dogmatic mind and an indoctrinated intellect.

Hedge funds are not the only institutions to "lose a leg"...

"Why do you look at the speck in your brothers eye and ignore the log in your own" (or whatever it says)

Bitter post... bitter post :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

Being very comfortable with my self-esteem and carrying the 'feeling' of openmindedness I will take this seemingly grumpy post with a grain of salt - for I think you are very sharp Wayne.

I have no reason for bitterness. Short termists have buttered my bread for a long time and the more they get irrational - the more I feel I benefit. I dont think I post half truths - at least I actually explain my position and dont just say:

"it is going up, i am going to double up here, all the sellers are silly, you are an idiot for selling and not believing this story because my mate said so and even though it wont produce for a decade and it is trading 100 times NPV it i worth another 1000 shares etc"

Check out the CDU, RDS threads where illiterates abuse me for adding some substance.

I can truthfully say that I have no idea what Rosie was talking about. Zero and I certainly wouldnt be swinging any Hills around based on something I cannot understand.

US based hedge funds are the big short players and moves like today are not created by retail punters, CFD players, warrant crumbs or Colonial First State trimming on the back of a Cu chart. They are (and have been) led by short term money from offshore. This is not a monumental assumption.

Some of my most profitable trades have been on the short side. I just think that shorting companies on 10 times cashflow with rising EPS, strong demand, constrained supply, 50 year mine lives and no debt is not the way to make money.

There are plenty of dog companies in Australia with expensive PEs and no earnings growth to short. Ex banks and resources, the market is a short. But the momentum players continue to focus on Hills because of its liquidity and their seemingly non-existant ability to understand the metals and energy markets.

Their loss will continue to be our gain.

You dont have to agree - you dont pay me any brokerage!
 
look back through all your post guys....

when bhp goes up 4% it is hitting the blue sky again...

when it falls 4% its plumeting.

when will people realise this is part of being a shareholder in the market...

if you cant handle it.... get yourself a fixed interest rate
 
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